Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/19

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2009-10-07T08:25:37.033-04:00

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:45:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:48:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T22:43:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:22:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:10:00.000-05:00

I want to see some hat-eatin'! Come on, mr. Righ...

2008-11-07T15:50:00.000-05:00

I want to see some hat-eatin'! Come on, mr. Right Wing Conspiracist - you talked big, time to walk big.

Right Wing Conspiricist said... "Libs, if B. Husse...

2008-11-07T03:26:00.000-05:00

Right Wing Conspiricist said...

"Libs, if B. Hussein Obama wins NC I will eat my hat on YouTube.

He can't win here. There will be a BIG Bradley Effect in NC. I remember when you libs thought that black democrat would beat Jesse Helms (God rest is soul) but SURPRISE! he lost!"

How's that workin' out for you?

Hat pretty tasty there?

Liam.

Hey Right Wing C, you want some ketchup for that h...

2008-11-06T12:31:00.000-05:00

Hey Right Wing C, you want some ketchup for that hat? What time can we expect to see that clip on YouTube?

Obama has been getting really good numbers in MT l...

2008-10-20T10:44:00.000-04:00

Obama has been getting really good numbers in MT lately. None of the polls thus far have taken Ron Paul into account. If you consider the number of votes Paul will leech off of McCain in MT, you might as well make MT solid blue on the map!

I Saw Mr. Zogby on C-Span tonight, analyzing his p...

2008-10-20T03:12:00.000-04:00

I Saw Mr. Zogby on C-Span tonight, analyzing his poll results.

Initially, he was talking about the overall poll, with 1211 responders, and a error percentage of 2.9%.

Next, he analized the results from the indies. However, the screen still showed 1211 responders, error +/- 2.9. I would assume that he probably did not have all his responders be indies, right? So the error should go up with only (guess) about 250 people.

Finally, he analized responders from families with active military. The numbers at the bottom of the screen still showed 1211 and +/- 2.9. He was trying to indicate that a change of 1% in this sample was significant (2% since the previous week)!

Now, I have no idea how many of his 1211 were military families, but I tend to doubt that all 1211 were (if there were 100, I would be suprised). With a sample size of less than 100, shouldn't the error be, like +/- 10%? And if that is true, how could a 1 or 2 point change mean anything at all?!?!

Either he doesn't understand how errors work (which would not suprise me, given the way Zogby normalizes), or this was the bigest snow job attempt by a polster that I have ever seen!!!

p.s.@oct.sorry for my crocodile's english...

2008-10-20T02:43:00.000-04:00

p.s.

@oct.

sorry for my crocodile's english...

oct said... And how concerned should we be about t...

2008-10-20T02:42:00.000-04:00

oct said...
And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.

Very concerned. There is no regulation of electronic voting machines. Mysterious that they only make mistakes in McCain's favor.

**************

Hope Obama will win despite the fraud .
I also hope that the next dem.senate get 60 seats.
Then they should reform your electoral system which it looks to me very ugly,too many different rules form state to state,you should uniform them.
what I found particulary unappropriate if I may say:
#1-throw that machine in the garbage FO-RE-VER.
#2-give to any US citezen whom has the right to vote a special paper where the official at the poll put a mark and a signature after voting,in this way the voter can only vote once.
#3-every voter mast show up at the poll with an ID including a fotograph.
#4-Hold the election on SATURDAY trough SUNDAY and NOT in a working day.

greetings from Europe.
:)

Regarding voting machines...I think that the probl...

2008-10-20T02:04:00.000-04:00

Regarding voting machines...

I think that the problem generally is money.

Also the code inside the electronic voting machines has been shown to be insecure. But nothing is done.

What if we are in the Matrix and no longer have control over who we elect any more?

That's a remarkable new simulation histogram -- I ...

2008-10-20T02:03:00.000-04:00

That's a remarkable new simulation histogram -- I don't think I've ever seen the mode that strong. Roughly 13% out of the 10,000 simulations all converge on 364 electoral votes. Presumably those correspond to the same breakdown of red/blue states ?

-- Sheila R, who just donated $100 to "steal back your vote" -- please follow my lead anyone who can afford to donate anything !!!

why oh why did the congress democrats not do anyth...

2008-10-20T02:01:00.000-04:00

why oh why did the congress democrats not do anything about making voting more secure?

And how concerned should we be about those reports...

2008-10-20T01:58:00.000-04:00

And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.

Very concerned. There is no regulation of electronic voting machines. Mysterious that they only make mistakes in McCain's favor.

I love how the article states that the voter, of course, made the mistake.

What happened to the intent of the voter?

Washington Post says the poll (ABC/Wash Post) will...

2008-10-20T01:52:00.000-04:00

Washington Post says the poll (ABC/Wash Post) will be released at 5 pm.

And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.

thank you bruce

2008-10-20T01:51:00.001-04:00

thank you bruce

Ugh. I can't believe you've forsaken baseball duri...

2008-10-20T01:51:00.000-04:00

Ugh. I can't believe you've forsaken baseball during these playoffs.

Jon Kruk is saying on ESPN how not even the Rays thought they'd be any good this year.

Turns out lots of people saw this coming.

marie,Begging the question refers to making a stat...

2008-10-20T01:48:00.000-04:00

marie,

Begging the question refers to making a statement like:

So when did you stop beating your wife?

As for your question: 95% refers to tax payers (not the more restrictive income tax payers). Remember there are more federal taxes than federal income taxes, for instance social security tax, which is very significant to low income earners. Regardless, Obama's plan does not provide a tax break to people who aren't paying taxes, which is the implication of your question.

All working Americans in effect pay payroll taxes,...

2008-10-20T01:44:00.000-04:00

All working Americans in effect pay payroll taxes, as well as sales taxes.

I voted early today in Columbus, OH, and it was bu...

2008-10-20T01:41:00.000-04:00

I voted early today in Columbus, OH, and it was busy at Vets Memorial. I was told that it's been pretty busy with the turnout so far for early voting. Interest in the election is definitely high in Ohio!

Presently, the bottom 40% of income earners pay ze...

2008-10-20T01:33:00.000-04:00

Presently, the bottom 40% of income earners pay zero income taxes. The top 20% pay 80% of all the federal income taxes. Therefore, it is not possible to give the bottom 40% a tax cut because they pay no money to the government. So this begs the question: How is Barack Obama proposing to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans?