Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Georgia

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2009-10-03T03:17:55.522-04:00

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2009-01-17T04:15:00.000-05:00

There's a new video that shows why Georgians shoul...

2008-11-03T05:01:00.000-05:00

There's a new video that shows why Georgians should actually vote Obama. Watch it here... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4Eah06_3-k.

I waited in line here in Atlanta for 5 hours. By G...

2008-11-02T16:14:00.000-05:00

I waited in line here in Atlanta for 5 hours. By God, my voice will be heard!

It's true - blacks don't vote here b/c they figure that whatever they do, neither party will properly address their needs. This time it's different - get ready to be surprised at least by the margin. Atlanta can't change the state's party affiliation alone but it can sure make a dent.

"As a southern state, the cultural tilt still work...

2008-11-02T13:13:00.000-05:00

"As a southern state, the cultural tilt still works in McCain's favor; Democrats are still seen as the party that tried to let black people vote in the 60s, and that ruffled a lot of feathers.""

I realize that most people who summarize the political landscape in GA like this have spent very little time in GA and talked to very few Georgians. That said, can we please start recognizing the GA's (hopefully departing) Republican leanings in at least the past 20 years were about more than just race? Like any other state, there are a variety of issues in play. It's just this sort of sentiment that often turns Southern voters off from the national Democratic party.

Palin 2012 pretty much concedes to an Obama win, b...

2008-11-01T22:14:00.000-04:00

Palin 2012 pretty much concedes to an Obama win, because if McCain wins, she'd be running against an incumbent republican. What as an independent?

The hidden Palin vote may be greater than Bradley ...

2008-11-01T22:01:00.000-04:00

The hidden Palin vote may be greater than Bradley Effect. I think a lot of working class white women see her as a kind of cultural heroine and while they won't admit it, find her and her messy but cohesive family irresistible.
------

WHAT? Are you KIDDING me? Palin makes me want to rip out my ovaries using my bare teeth. She is the the 'lucky toenail' in the sunday potato salad at the church picnic. And as with Katherine Harris before her, she will never, EVER, everneverever, be elected to any office more involved than heading the PTA bake sale. Seriously. Palin makes Baby Jaysus cry.

~FL PUMA, turning FL blue even though FL Dem party leaders are corrupt morons. Vote Alan Grayson in FL-08!

WV: tantwe - 'tantwe all just get along in an Obama Administration?

Dan 3:50If the belief in god is rational and not j...

2008-11-01T20:24:00.000-04:00

Dan 3:50

If the belief in god is rational and not just made up, how come at least 70% of people in the world are wrong about what form that god takes? Is Hinduism correct about there being either many different forms of the same god, one god venerated above others, or in fact no god depending on what particular parts you pay attention to for example?

wv - koltra. Amphetamine laced syrupy soft drink.

Im a grande blanco Obama supporter who moved to GA...

2008-11-01T18:00:00.000-04:00

Im a grande blanco Obama supporter who moved to GA 12 years ago from CT. Obviously i would love to see the D's make an impression here - but frankly i really don't see it.

The one caveat might be that there is substantial support for Libertarian causes here, radio host Neal Boortz is VERY popular. I could see this pulling from Republican's numbers, but with everyone reporting how close this race will be i find it unlikely that those Republican's who might have voted Libertarian would do so if the race is that tight.

God willing though...there is hope.

Only two states have more black voters than Georgi...

2008-11-01T17:52:00.000-04:00

Only two states have more black voters than Georgia, and it appears a gigantic wave of individuals in the Obama-supporting demographic is brazenly attempting to exercise its Constitutional rights.

...I'll admit it, I lol'd. (Yes, really.) Definitely the best line in an OTR piece.

That said...from what I'm reading (on 538 and a bit on Politico), I'm not quite holding out hope that McCain and Chambliss will have their asses handed to them. Certainly, it'd be delicious schadenfreude if they did get their asses handed to them in Georgia, of all places.

On the other hand, I think 538 may be selling GA-Sen a bit short. Chambliss is a one-term incumbent, right? Meaning he was elected at the height of Republican feeling; at the time, we were only 14 months removed from September 11. (Not to mention, the effect was most noticeable...you know...outside of the Mid-Atlantic.) Without the entire meme of "ZOMG REPUBLICANS WILL KEEP YOU SAFE FROM TURRISTS" and a black presidential candidate, it may likely be that African-Americans (who do vote straight-ticket Democrat most of the time) were being undersampled for the Senate polls.

WV: panster. What I'm hoping Obama and Martin will be in Georgia.

For Barack Obama to win Georgia he needs the AA vo...

2008-11-01T17:39:00.001-04:00

For Barack Obama to win Georgia he needs the AA vote to be 30% of the electorate. You know what portion of the electorate AA's are now? 37 PERCENT! That is UNPRECEDENTED, the turnout will trump all the polls and with it, we will win GA and shock everyone on election night. Bank on that shit.

PK--I fail to see how it is "intellectually dishon...

2008-11-01T17:39:00.000-04:00

PK--

I fail to see how it is "intellectually dishonest" to call a belief that has NO basis in fact whatsoever "nutty". Maybe you mean "intellectually snobby", or something. Whatever you mean, you are wrong, and you know it. "Quaint" is just a code word embarrassed conservatives use to explain away deeply irrational "beliefs" of their own kind.

At best, it's "quaint" if Joe the Plumber believes it--the consequences of his belief to us all are nil. It's something far more disturbing if a person with the power to make decisions that affect us all believes it. Again, the capacity to suspend critical thought in this way is downright frightening.

And, just to give you a heads up--Bush is crafty, but dumb, incurious and mentally lazy (and he manages to be all those things as a scion of astonishing privilege and opportunity, education at the best schools, etc.) Palin is the same, albeit with much less opportunity.

But Obama is crafty AND smart, thoughtful and well educated. Unlike our current president, he doesn't substitute "belief" for critical thought because it's easier to do so. It is simply impossible to have achieved what Obama has academically without having serious wattage upstairs.

You don't like this, but it is true. Much like the polling discussed here.

Grace NotesThere is no doubt that McCain ran a res...

2008-11-01T17:22:00.000-04:00

Grace Notes

There is no doubt that McCain ran a respectful campaign.
The two highest grace notes of the past few months have belonged to McCain. His congratulatory commercial the night of Obama's nomination and his excellent speech at the Al Smith Dinner in which he recognized with conviction the specialness of Obama's place in history and how we all as Americans must stand in pride and awe over it.

I don't think Obama beat either of those two moments for all his cotton candy pretty rhetoric.

W Ver: ovoutya – a word coined by Radical Feminists to enhance the “otherness” and “foreign body” nature of anything relating to female participation in reproduction and the making of a baby, a fetus, a “thing” that is hers to destroy virtually at her whim.

Speaking as a University of Chicago student, I can...

2008-11-01T17:09:00.000-04:00

Speaking as a University of Chicago student, I can tell you that Sarah Palin would be laughed out of any classroom here as a student, never mind as a professor. Every time I hear the "Palin is just like Obama" argument it just sounds utterly ridiculous.

Bruce,"If you think about it for a nanosecond, not...

2008-11-01T17:02:00.000-04:00

Bruce,

"
If you think about it for a nanosecond, not all beliefs are created equal. Some are downright nutty. And believing that dinosaurs and men walked the earth together, for example, is off the charts nuts. It's what happens when religion clouds, instead of illuminates, a person's mind. "

Critizing someone else's quaint religious beliefs seems very harrow minded.

You may not agree with her beliefs but calling them nutty is intelectually dishonest, something Obama is a specialist in.

McCain will outpoll Dole in NC. He will win a squ...

2008-11-01T16:57:00.000-04:00

McCain will outpoll Dole in NC. He will win a squeaker, she will lose handily.

WV: audized -- mesmerized by the voice of the Messiah.

Same thing happened in 1992 -Inc Dem Senator was f...

2008-11-01T16:54:00.000-04:00

Same thing happened in 1992 -
Inc Dem Senator was forced into a runoff with Paul Coverdell; race intially called for Dem until they realized he wouldn't get 50%

Clinton had won already, GOP came out much more strongly in runoff,
Coverdell won

Just heard the Palin prank - not nearly as bad for her as I expected

justsomeguy-Do you really think that religion is j...

2008-11-01T16:50:00.000-04:00

justsomeguy-

Do you really think that religion is just a construct? That we made up God? That the universe is just by random chance?

I would encourage you to look up Pascal's Wager and consider it long and hard before thinking that religion doesn't matter.

About the runoff potential in the Georgia Senate r...

2008-11-01T16:43:00.000-04:00

About the runoff potential in the Georgia Senate race, I would say normally it would not be good for the Democratic candidate. But if the Democrats knew that this would be their 60th vote in the Senate, that could motivate a large turnout for the runoff race.

Looking forward to Sean and Brett hitting Georgia!...

2008-11-01T16:40:00.000-04:00

Looking forward to Sean and Brett hitting Georgia! When they went to Florida, I thought they were giving us a miss.

You've got to wonder about the crossovers in these demographics... Do you know how many black, female veterans in same-sex households there are here in GA? ;)

Chambliss, incidentally, just got even more odious: he's warning his supporters that "The other folks are voting". Seriously. Dear god, could he be any more clueless if he tried?

" and his views of the Constitution are warped and...

2008-11-01T16:39:00.000-04:00

" and his views of the Constitution are warped and when they finally come to light will come to haunt him"

Name one.

What term to you use to describe a woman who bring...

2008-11-01T16:38:00.000-04:00

What term to you use to describe a woman who brings her kids out with her before a hockey game to reduce the boo-ing?

Markymark -IN and KY will NOT be called at 6 ET. W...

2008-11-01T16:37:00.000-04:00

Markymark -
IN and KY will NOT be called at 6 ET. Why? Because some precincts in both states stay open an hour more (on CT), and the networks will not make a call until all are closed.

This applies to several other states, most importantly FL (most close at 7, panhandle open til 8).

They DO show actually reported results, sometimes give hints at to what the early results mean.

Pete,"Doesn't see America like you and I do""Palli...

2008-11-01T16:35:00.001-04:00

Pete,

"Doesn't see America like you and I do"

"Palling around with terrorists"

"That one"

Hearing numerous cries of "terrorist", "kill him", etc at rallies and saying nothing.

Obama goes out of his way to tell people not to boo McCain and always acknowledges McCain's service to our country. McCain and particularly Palin stand idly by while their rallies turn into frothing anger bordering on a lynch mob.

This is not arguable. The candidates don't hate Obama, but many of their supporters do, and they're allowing that hate to fester.

PeteKent: What is in that kool-aid that you are dr...

2008-11-01T16:35:00.000-04:00

PeteKent: What is in that kool-aid that you are drinking?