Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Just Says No to Indiana

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> "How does one find out the location of his event...

2008-08-04T15:41:00.000-04:00

> "How does one find out the location of his events?

lupercal sez:

> go to barackobama.com and scroll
> down to the bottom of the page.
> they always put his schedule up
> there.

I've tried that, but the search doesn't work. For example, consider the first three events (speech in Lansing, MI on Aug 4, town hall in Youngstown, OH on Aug 5, and town hall in Berea, OH on Aug) listed at the Washington Post event feed for Obama. Nothing shows up when one does an advanced search at barackobama.com for "Official Events with Barack Obama" doing a 25 mile radius search around a zip code for those cities (48933, 44501, 44017). Doing a basic search for 25 miles around these zip codes brings up dozens of volunteer events, but none of the above-mentioned Obama appearances.

So maybe the washingtonpost site is the best one can do, but it seems like most events only show up at best two days before they occur. I find it hard to believe they aren't planned farther in advance than that.

Agree wit hthe thought that Obama campaign is asle...

2008-08-04T11:37:00.000-04:00

Agree wit hthe thought that Obama campaign is asleep atteh wheel in regards to pouncing on McCain gaffs. All during the primary McCain was saying that teh economic downturn is "psychological"...then we all heard what Gramm had to so about it. Where's the ad showing McCain referring to the mess as psychological. Obama can't run the general election like he ran the primary. He has to hit harder now.

Having said all that, i read there's , Obama ad out today that hits McCain on the economy.

"Thats it. Phil Graham just handed you the electio...

2008-08-04T09:46:00.000-04:00

"Thats it. Phil Graham just handed you the election and thats all you said. No fake outrage or commercial, or anything. Thats negligence of such a degree, that you had better make sure you win this election or you will go down as the most incompetent clown in US political history. And I'm an ardent supporter."

"agreed. so far im quite satisfied with the ground game. but that's not all. methinks they might be committing campaign malpractice with their communication team. but that's me. i mean, they've got so much to work with that mccain shouldn't have a moment to rest. i don't know if the plan is to have blitz after the convention or what. but im frankly worried."

Same here. What are they waiting for? Quite frankly, I don't trust David Axelrod and his communications team. McFlip-Flop has presented both he and Obama with half-a-dozen campaign-ending gaffes, but they've yet to pounce on any of them. Obama failed to capitalise on the world tour (6-9 pts ahead in Gallup and Rasmussen) and lost a week to nonsense and trivia when he should have been hitting McFlip-Flop hard on the economy in key swing states. If he'd done so he'd be up by double digits by now. Maybe not...Afterall, he hasn't broken 50% so far, and McCain is struggling to break 45%.

The optimist in me says that Axelrod and Obama are keeping their powder dry until after the Denver Convention. But the realist in me says they're playing it too safe and that they have no intention of running attacks ads on television and the internet defining McCain in the minds of voters as a flip-flopping gaffe machine who doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, whether it's the econony or foreign affairs.

Obama and Axelrod better pulls their fingers out...they can't rely on MoveOn to do their job for them, they need to do it themselves.

SunnyD,this is from the text of the article..." No...

2008-08-04T07:24:00.000-04:00

SunnyD,

this is from the text of the article...

" Not since the 95th Congress of 1977-79, when Democrats had 61 seats, has either party had a veto-proof majority.

Democrats now hold a 50-49 advantage in the Senate, and one seat is held by an independent."

So, the article pretty clearly states that the magic 61 applies to a veto (incorrectly) and not a filibuster.
Oh, and Sanders also caucuses with the Dems...

John McCain had better have food tasters and other...

2008-08-04T03:37:00.000-04:00

John McCain had better have food tasters and others watching his back. The Fascists that control the Repuke Party will not allow him to be "Dear Leader".
He is a flawed man, and would make an awful president; but he is not the total sociopath as required by the bushite/neocon axis.

Watch your back, John McCain! Your Fascist friends will put you in an early grave!

McCain to Indiana Republicans:I don't need you.Don...

2008-08-04T03:16:00.000-04:00

McCain to Indiana Republicans:

I don't need you.

Don't bother volunteering.

If its cold or raining or you can't find a parking spot, you probably shouldn't even bother to vote.

This goes beyond arrogance. This is pure and total sheer stupidity.

I love it John. You're doing great. Keep up the good work.

The McCain camp believes they have an avenue of at...

2008-08-04T02:35:00.000-04:00

The McCain camp believes they have an avenue of attack with the celebrity charge.

"Sure he's a celebrity, but can he lead? Is he ready?

I may be wrong but i do not believe this has any down side for Barack. Reagan was a celebrity and so was Clinton. JFK was a huge celebrity and people love him to this day. Americans have no problem with celebrities. They have a problem with Britney and Paris' celebrity because they're morally bankrupt. Obama is nothing like those two.

There has been a lot of buzz over this add, but not because the add works, because the add doesn't work. It's so frivolous that its laughable. It may backlash too.

Now, I could be completely wrong. I've misjudged Americans before and it could happen again. Some McCain accusations really piss me off, but this one doesn't. I guess we'll wait and see.

Good post, Clark.The other point about assuming so...

2008-08-04T02:32:00.000-04:00

Good post, Clark.
The other point about assuming some kind of correlation between the national polls and the state polls:
a small difference in the national polls can make a big difference in who's ahead in which state. In 2004, for example, the following states were within 3 points:
NV, OH, NM, IA, WI, NH, PA.
A total of 37 electoral votes, within range of a gain of 1.5% in the national popular vote for one candidate, and the same loss for the other.
Looking at the polls, there are even more states that close this year, it seems.
As a result, the "margin of error" in national polls covers quite a lot of possibilities. If Obama is ahead by 1 point in national polls, then we can say with some confidence that he's between 0-2 points ahead. Which is fine as an estimate of the national margin, but makes a bloody enormous difference to how likely he is to be ahead in the electoral vote.
Not to mention that comparing national tracking polls conducted every day by one company to periodic state polls (often but not always conducted by the same company) introduces more error in the process.
So it's actually kind of ridiculous to look at the national polls and make too many inferences about who's winning in which states. Which is why that's not Nate's methodology...

A few weeks ago, Nate added a new element to the S...

2008-08-04T02:07:00.000-04:00

A few weeks ago, Nate added a new element to the Super Tracker, an adjustment for the seemingly inevitable closing of a race as the election nears. Hence, the yellow line, which is the projected electoral outcome, is a couple of points lower than the blue line, which is the predicted outcome if the election were today.

So, here was my question: what does that look like on a state-by-state basis, especially for the swing states in this election? I don't have decades of data, but it's pretty easy to look at 2004, especially on electoral-vote.com, which has each state 2008 and 2004 on the same page.

What I did was create a spreadsheet of data, with six columns initially: (1) Bush's average poll result in 13 states (WI, MN, IA, OH, MI, FL, VA, NM, CO, PA, MO, NH, NV) averaged over June and July 2004; (2) Kerry's comparable average poll numbers for the same states; (3) Bush's final vote percentage in each state; (4) Kerry's final vote percentage in each state; (5) McCain's average polling result for each state over June and July; and (6) Obama's average polling result for each state over June and July.

From this data, you can begin to compute certain variables. For me, the key variable was: how much ground did Bush gain between June/July and the election in each state?

In the five states the Kerry won (NH, MN, WI, PA, MI), Bush made up 2% or less from June/July to the election (including losing 1% in Michigan). Note that this period includes both conventions, the Swift Boat ads, and all three debates. Thus, although the polls seemed to suggest a rather dynamic race, even in these states, the results were actually much more stable.

The data also indicate that, in those five states, Obama is either ahead of or even with where Kerry was in June/July in these states (beating Kerry by 6 in WI, 7 in MN, 1 in MI, and even with Kerry in PA and NH).

Together, these two data sets suggest that, unless McCain can do better than Bush in moving voters in these states between now and the election, he will not win in these states.

So, what about states that Bush ended up winning.

In Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, Bush and Kerry were essentially tied in June/July 2004. Currently, Obama is doing slightly better than Kerry in OH and slightly worse in NV, but the race in both states is essentially still tied. In Iowa, Obama is 6 points ahead of where Kerry was and well in the lead. In all three states, Bush was able to advance over Kerry only 2% between June/July and the election. As a result, he won all three states. This year, that outcome would not be enough in IA, but it would probably be enough in OH and NV to secure a very narrow victory in OH and to win a bit more handily in NV. In other words, Obama needs to hold McCain to less gain than Bush got if he is to win OH and NV in the fall.

At this point, Obama has all Kerry states plus IA, for 259 EV, according to this analysis.

In VA and MO, Bush started in June/July with a comfortable lead of 5% and 3% respectively. He ultimately added to both these leads substantially, bringing his election victory in both states to 8%. This year, in June/July, McCain trailed Obama by 1% in VA and led by 2% in MO. In both states, if he can duplicate Bush's feat of changing the margins by 3-5%, he will win easily.

In CO, Bush also led by 5% in June/July, but his upside was only 2% by the election, giving him a 7% victory. This is significant, because Obama had a 3% lead over McCain in CO in June/July, so if he can hold McCain to the 2% gain that Bush got, he will win.

In NM, Bush trailed by 4% in June/July but was able to make up 5% by the election and win narrowly. McCain was behind by 5% in June/July. Can he duplicate Bush's feat? Seems unlikely. Hispanics gave Bush a lot of credit and votes for his Mexico policy, his Spanish language skills, and his values. McCain gets none of the above and has to deal with the fallout from the Republicans' immigration policies. Add in a general shift toward democrats, and there would seem to be a lot less upside for McCain. My guess is that NM gives Obama 264 electoral votes.

In FL, Bush led by 1% in June/July and won the state going away, adding another 4% to win by 5%. Recall that this was the year of the hurricanes, and Jeb Bush was governor, perfectly playing the state for his brother in September and October. This may account for the 2% gain he got vs. the other states that were close in June/July (NV, OH, IA, each of which Bush gained only 2%). Not likely to happen that way for McCain this year, although of course he could pick Charlie Crist as VP.

So what have we learned? Obama probably has locked up IA and NM, as well as the Kerry states. Unless this election is radically different from 2004 in terms of its dynamics (and it hasn't shown any evidence that it will be yet), McCain just can't make up enough ground in these states. Of course, we probably new this already, but confirmation is always nice.

We've also learned that CO and VA are probably ripe for picking. CO is won unless McCain can do better than Bush at picking up new votes before the election. Obama is already +8 from where Kerry was at this point, and he's about to hold his convention in Denver. VA isn't lost to McCain, yet, but Bush only picked up 3% between June/July and the election, even though Kerry didn't contest the state at all.

Obama also has a pretty good shot at OH. Saturation ad coverage in 2004 led to a 3% Bush victory. Bush gained 4 after July but Kerry gained 2 for a net Bush gain of +2. Was this 2% Republican GOTV? If so, and Obama can match GOTV in 2008, he will win the state, since he's already up by a point or two.

Two completely unrelated things:

1. I love that Paris Hilton's mother, who is a huge donor for McCain, has lambasted McCain for wasting her money and the nation's time by pulling a stupid stunt (the Britney/Paris ad) while people are losing their jobs. Maybe she'll agree to be in an ad for Obama. See the CNN Political Ticker. At any rate, I hope People and Oprah pick the story up and run with it.

2. The point about following state polls and not just the national "tracking" data is this: What if McCain's tracking numbers are on the rise because a lot more people in deep red and deep blue states have decided to back him? Then, his national numbers would go up a lot, but his numbers in battleground states might not change at all, or might even go down. Because political advertising and news coverage is often highly local, polling results in two adjacent states can change in opposite directions.

3. The exact same point could be made in the discussion about Indiana and Montana. There seems to be a lot of assuming going on that the states are lined up from Deep Blue to Deep Red and then shift up and down together as the national mood shifts towards a candidate. Why should we believe this? WV used to be a reliably Blue state, but now it's being won by Republicans in national elections. At the same time, NH, which used to be reliably Red, has become much more Blue. Is there any evidence that Indiana can't become Bluer in a year when other states don't change much? I certainly haven't seen any presented. On the contrary, three democrats won House seats in Indiana in 2006 that had been held by Republicans for a long time. Add a little ground game and, who knows, something might happen. Be a bitch if McCain holds OH and VA but loses the Presidency because he overlooked Indiana. Too bad Gore forgot to pay attention to WV wasn't it.

Gotta give it up for the night.

"Thats it. Phil Graham just handed you the electio...

2008-08-04T02:06:00.000-04:00

Obama had a pretty steady 5 point lead until Steve...

2008-08-04T01:58:00.000-04:00

Obama had a pretty steady 5 point lead until Steve Schmidt took over McCain's campaign. Since then the McCain camp has pushed the media coverage with attack after attack and spin and fake outrage, all the usual crap like we saw from the Clinton camp in the primary.

Obama doesn't play the media spin game and he's getting torched because of it. You cannot let the republicans completely push their message. As much as Obama hates the nonsense of spin campaigning, you have to employ it because of the 24h news cycle. They got space to fill and if your not filling it, the other side is. Right now McCain is filling it and Obama has been doing pretty much nothing.

Maybe Barack has some post convention plan but besides the GOTV stuff, I see no other co-ordinated attack plan. It is borderline criminal to not attack McCain's economic plan substantively, but super aggressively every minute of every day.

I can't even imagine the Hillary response to the Phil Graham "Mental recession" comments. She'd of had commercials and pamphlets and mailers sent out for weeks. That one comment would be her campaign, and rightly so. She'd of lit such a storm over McCain's ass he'd still be recovering. You know what barack said:

"We don't need another Dr. Phil"

Thats it. Phil Graham just handed you the election and thats all you said. No fake outrage or commercial, or anything. Thats negligence of such a degree, that you had better make sure you win this election or you will go down as the most incompetent clown in US political history. And I'm an ardent supporter.

weatherchicken said... Further, Fix had Pennylv...

2008-08-04T01:48:00.000-04:00

weatherchicken said...

Further, Fix had Pennylvania as No.9 on his top ten list of battleground statios that were likely to flip (posted Thursday -I don't think much has changed since then). Indiana wasn't on that list.

Ah, then it must be true.

Further, Fix had Pennylvania as No.9 on his top te...

2008-08-04T01:39:00.000-04:00

Further, Fix had Pennylvania as No.9 on his top ten list of battleground statios that were likely to flip (posted Thursday -I don't think much has changed since then). Indiana wasn't on that list. Obama fans mustn't get too greedy. Look after the pennies, etc.

rdweber, This is off-topic, but I need to vent. I'...

2008-08-04T01:36:00.000-04:00

rdweber,

This is off-topic, but I need to vent. I'm a regular CNN.com reader, and I just found the most idiotic piece of crap article that I've ever seen in print.

Don't get me going on cable news. Especially CNN. They are supposed to be the standard by which other networks are measured and they disappoint repeatedly.

They use Political analyst A to argue with political analyst B for 5 minutes about the political merits of X,without educating voters on X. So at the end of discussing X(Oil drilling for example) we've learned nothing except campaign talking points. Its all a bunch of bullshit. Charlie Rose usually has 1-2 good guests per week, and thats the extent of my knowledge intake.

61 votes can over-ride a veto? The senate only has...

2008-08-04T01:27:00.000-04:00

61 votes can over-ride a veto? The senate only has 1 independent?
Someone edited that POS and let it go to print?

Dood, you need to read the article a little better before you vent.

First, 2/3 is required to override a veto, but the article was referencing a filibusters, which require 3/5 majority. Hence, the "Magic 61."

Second, technically, there are two independents in the Senator, but Joe Lieberman is a member of the Democratic Caucus, thus leaving Bernie Sanders as the lone true independent.

Someone is editing posts that have no profanity or...

2008-08-04T01:12:00.000-04:00

Someone is editing posts that have no profanity or any name calling at all.

I made a long post listing all the objections that Hispanic Americans would have in Obama and Bayh doing the "we're pro-abortionist and we're doing this here", in the city that has the most Catholic university on the planet, and WHOOPS, that post just went SEE YA!

Which is what people are complaining about on the web right now--the Obamabloggers.

Bill O'Reilly can read cut and pastes.

anonymous weatherchicken said...realistxxx: Englis...

2008-08-04T01:06:00.000-04:00

anonymous weatherchicken said...

realistxxx: English I see is not your strong point. The behaviour you describe is not 'arrogance'. It may be 'foolishness', certainly. Arrogance would be if he went around boasting that he would win Pennsylvania and not campaigning anywhere, sitting on a sun lounger(with parasol of course), supping from a mug of kool-aid. Campaigning per se is not arrogance. In fact it shows you want people's votes and aren't taking them for granted, which is arrogance. Capisce?

---------

Actually, English is a strong suit of mine... anche sono forte in italiano quindi capisco benissimo.

I was being sarcastic, because Republicans are saying Obama was being arrogant and presumptuous about campaigning in red states like MT, IN, AK etc.

To me McCain campaigning hard in blue PA, where he is 7 points behind is the same thing.

Chiaro?

realistxxx: English I see is not your strong point...

2008-08-04T00:59:00.000-04:00

realistxxx: English I see is not your strong point. The behaviour you describe is not 'arrogance'. It may be 'foolishness', certainly. Arrogance would be if he went around boasting that he would win Pennsylvania and not campaigning anywhere, sitting on a sun lounger(with parasol of course), supping from a mug of kool-aid. Campaigning per se is not arrogance. In fact it shows you want people's votes and aren't taking them for granted, which is arrogance. Capisce?

"I don't get it. Torture, Gitmo, 2 recessions, 2 w...

2008-08-04T00:37:00.000-04:00

"I don't get it. Torture, Gitmo, 2 recessions, 2 wars, gas prices, pissed on constitution. Is it The whole, black, Indonesia, Chicago, Liberal, Rev. Right, Flager, don't share your values stuff? I really don't get it. Can someone please enlighten me without the sarcastic crap. Whats wrong with Obama. He'll probably still win, but why don't they like him?"

a couple of reasons.
1.) he's african american.
2.) he's been on the national scene for 4 years.
3.) Clinton clobbered him with the experience charge, and created a ceiling for him with her.
4.) he's been in hardcore, dirty campaigning for at least 8 months. No breaks to reconstitute himself, or give voters a break to start liking him again like mccain and possibly romney and clinton. and because of campaign for 18 months, people have set opinions of him by now and it will only get worse if he doesn't shift the spotlight to mccain's shortcomings and he lets mccain make up his character.
5.) he and mccain share some of the same strengths: mccain has no interest for anything other than foreign policy (although i don't see what he's got to show for it except making gaffes that would end any other candidate's career if the media was paying attention). Obama feels most confident about his foreign policy grasp. If it were up to him, he'd riff off foreign policy all the way to nov. 4th. They both speak of generalities of the economy. mccain has one answer to everything thing economic, whether it be mortgage crisis, wall street, or loss of jobs: stop gov. spending. Obama has a better grasp and has an economic vision of transforming the economy from a corporate, supply driven economy to a consumer economy, middle class tax cuts but he's more of a visionary and he has been reluctant to really be a wonky policy doctor a la hillary clinton.

6. the spotlight's on him, but he's not piercing through all the mccain cacophony, and he pays the price whenever mccain makes a mistake, because the media will want to find something similar from obama to appear balanced.

7. unless he makes the case more forcefully that given the enormous challenges that we face, it's really irresponsible of mccain to not put any meaningful policy papers foward, and unless he revamps his communication team to be more forceful and sharper in their surrogate work, it's still gonna be close no matter how vastly superior he is to mccain. unless he can put mccain on the spotlight, he's gonna a though time. whomever is under the microscope is gonna suffer.