Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Cellphone Problem, Revisited

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Another problem is that many areas of the country ...

2008-09-16T16:08:00.000-04:00

Another problem is that many areas of the country (Maine, Vermont, and Alaska, and parts of Kansas, Wyoming, and Utah) have bad or non-existent cell phone service. So pollsters who go after cell phone users may bias against land line owners.

The problem with cell phones is that they have no ...

2008-09-16T16:06:00.000-04:00

The problem with cell phones is that they have no fixed location. An Ohio area code will not necessarily connect to a cell phone held by someone living in Ohio and an Ohio resident may have a cell phone with an out of state area code.

There is another possibility : pollsters need to s...

2008-07-24T21:40:00.000-04:00

There is another possibility : pollsters need to sell their polls. And a lot of people have interests in a close race... And summer is politically boring...
Let's wait till conventions...
Then, it will be funny or scary...

I won't say I told you so on CO yet. The race is ...

2008-07-24T11:35:00.000-04:00

I won't say I told you so on CO yet. The race is tightening all over

Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP
Michigan: Obama 46, McCain 42Minnesota: Obama 46, McCain 44Colorado: McCain 46, Obama 44Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 39

Anon- It's not just that Ras's numbers on 18-40 ar...

2008-07-23T13:14:00.000-04:00

Anon-
It's not just that Ras's numbers on 18-40 are out of line with numbers on that demographic in other states. They're also out of line with that demographic's preious poll and elction results in Ohio. RAS missed the mark on at least that part, and it may have tainted his whole poll. They probably know that, so I suspect we'll see another poll from them sooner rather than later to either confirm or refute these results.

Beware of wishful thinking. Ohio's 20-40 year old ...

2008-07-23T08:38:00.000-04:00

Beware of wishful thinking. Ohio's 20-40 year old population is not so much like the same on the coasts.

1. I would guess that, of the ones in college or with a college education, more (percent-wise) live with their parents, and I would also guess that young men and women who are about 30 & living with their parents have political views that are closer to those of their parent's demographic.

2. Not a lot of opportunity for young people in Ohio. The "good ones" -- the really high-achieving ones -- tend to leave the state. So even the educated kids, who should vote overwhelmingly for Obama, are bitter about the state of things.

3. Good portion of Appalachian people. It's just a fact that the people in this area are more racist than the people in other areas, one that is pretty easily explained (but not justified) by the history of such people going back to before the Civil War.

4. A lot of military, as someone said.

I can definitely see McCain doing better in Ohio than Kerry. Esp. because it does not look to me like Strickland & Bruuner have done much of anything to correct the significant structural advantage that Republicans have in the vote-collecting department (few polls in urban areas, many in suburban ones, etc.)

I remember when the Howard Dean people latched on the cell phone bias theory in 2003 and 2004. It's grasping at straws. Don't tune out polls you don't like: face the reality, which is, I don't think Obama is close to taking Ohio yet ... much work to be done in Ohio still ...

Is there additional confusion introduced by people...

2008-07-23T07:56:00.000-04:00

Is there additional confusion introduced by people who use a VOIP phone as their only phone? The local traditional phone companies are so expensive that people (like me) simply get broadband internet and add Vonage or other VOIP phone service to have a "land line" - yet we never get cold calls from telemarketers nor political survey calls. I am unsure why, though I am grateful; but how many of us are there?

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