Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/11

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2009-10-09T03:23:11.706-04:00

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2009-09-09T23:45:41.795-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:05:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:05:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-11T22:51:00.000-05:00

Nate - Have you seen this poll showing McCain up 9...

2008-06-12T07:15:00.000-04:00

Nate - Have you seen this poll showing McCain up 9 in Indiana? Couldn't find an original source.

John, Clinton did not need Gore's help to carry TN...

2008-06-12T01:14:00.000-04:00

John, Clinton did not need Gore's help to carry TN given that Perot siphoned off conservative votes. Gore couldn't even carry his own state of TN in 2000, costing him the election.

Edwards couldn't give Kerry NC in 2004 and Agnew could not deliver MD to Nixon in 1968. Few VPs besides LBJ have delivered a home state that was otherwise unlikely.

Just as Obama said, all of this talk of vice presi...

2008-06-11T23:32:00.000-04:00

Just as Obama said, all of this talk of vice presidential selection is very premature. A candidate should take battlegrounds into consideration when choosing a VP only if it would definitely matter. As the trends are going now, Obama might not need any help getting elected, which means he should instead choose the vice president for what he is supposed to choose them for: doing the job of VP well.

It would be stupid to choose a lame-duck VP just because they could get you a few more electoral votes when, in the end, you didn't need those votes at all. And, for how he has run his campaign and for what he has pushed as his presidential aspirations, Obama would lose credibility and momentum as a leader if he chose a vice president for political reasons rather than because of their competence and philosophies.

So, to all of those in this thread and the previous who are discounting entire political careers because their states of origin are small or they've held their current post for a shorter period of time than others, cool down. Obama doesn't need to decide until right before the convention, and he shouldn't because if he doesn't need a electoral boost from his VP then he'll better know then, and if he does then getting it a close to november as possible is ideal.

My vote, as was Sean's, is for Schweitzer. In addition to Sean's arguments, intentionally choosing such an inexperienced VP will send the message that Obama really isn't afraid of the "inexperienced" attacks and isn't afraid to take a VP from a state he won't win anyway. It will show that he is dedicated to his message of a new Washington and that he is able to stick to his principles rather than choosing allies for political positioning.

Sean:Me again, Arab AMerican Michigan voter.I agre...

2008-06-11T23:21:00.000-04:00

Sean:

Me again, Arab AMerican Michigan voter.

I agree with you that the Dearborn Arab American vote will go overwhelmingly for Obama.

But as I said, the Arab American suburban vote (in Oakland County--where my parents live) is composed of wealthy Chaldean Christians and Lebanese Christians, and among them, there is a lot of hesitation to vote for Obama. I know we should avoid anecdotes, but my mom (who is an Obama supporter) was telling me that at a recent family dinner party, when the discussion turned to politics, literally every person said they did not believe Obama was a Christian, and that they would not be comfortable taking the risk voting for him. Perhaps this knee-jerk reaction has a lot to do with the discrimination (perceived or real) that many Arab Christians felt they were subject to in Muslim countries. Either way, the suburban Arab American (and Chaldeans don't even call themselves Arab!) vote will likely be either split or slightly for McCain. Dearborn, which is heavily Muslim, will be for Obama. Things can change, but based on growing up in the Chaldean community, I think there is even more irrational resistance to voting for a Black candidate than among, say, voters in Macomb County. It's sad but true...

In terms of Veeps, I'll suggest that in recent ele...

2008-06-11T22:59:00.000-04:00

In terms of Veeps, I'll suggest that in recent elections, Gore helped Clinton carry Tennessee both times (Tennessee was rather close in both 1992 and 1996), that Quayle helped Bush carry Indiana in 1992 (it was, again, fairly close), that Mondale was largely responsible for Carter carrying Minnesota in 1980 (but not 1976 - in 1980 it was fairly close and Carter got wiped out most other places), and that Muskie was reponsible for Humphrey's victory in Maine in 1968. That's not a particularly terrible record.

Anonymous: "My comments on Michigan versus Pennsyl...

2008-06-11T22:13:00.000-04:00

Anonymous: "My comments on Michigan versus Pennsylvania weren't meant to say anything meaningful about Pennsylvania or Michigan in general, just meant to point out that there is now an incongruence between the ordering of the must-win states..."

Ah. Well, I can see your point.

But I think Nate might be using the Tipping Point list for that analysis. It seems designed to be a better representation of which states are likely to be decisive in the general.

.

You're correct; the effect on Arab-Americans won't...

2008-06-11T21:38:00.000-04:00

You're correct; the effect on Arab-Americans won't be nearly that of African-Americans. But I still believe that Obama, just like Kerry in 2004, will win the Arab-American vote and that turnout will be slightly higher. There are, of course, differences in any demographic. But when it gets down to it, I still think that Dearborn will be a net-plus for Obama, perhaps enough to put him over the edge. I guess we'll see on November 4. Also, not all of Arab-Americans are as you describe, particularly those in the suburbs. In the suburbs, the Arab-American vote will go to Obama by a healthy margin.

On a side note, it's good to see a fellow Michigander at 538. I look forward to more conversations in the future.

Sean Fitzpatrick:Regarding the Arab American vote ...

2008-06-11T20:51:00.000-04:00

Sean Fitzpatrick:

Regarding the Arab American vote in Michigan:

I'm an Arab American from Michigan, and I don't believe that Arabs here will "come out in droves for Obama". Remember, the Arab American community here is quite diverse, split between Iraqi, Lebanese, and Palestinian Christians, and Iraqi, Lebanese, and Yemeni Muslims.

Obama will probably do well among Arab American Muslims, generally, despite his recent speech to AIPAC. However, he won't do as well with Arab American Christians, many of whom are small business owners, religiously conservative, and yes, racist. Most of the small business they own are in African American communities, and there is much racial tension between the communities.

Based on the things I've been hearing, much of the Chaldean (Iraqi Christian) community here (about half of the Middle Eastern population in MI) is simply too racist to vote for a Black candidate. The younger, more educated Arab Americans and Chaldeans are more likely to vote Obama, but their parents? Not likely.

New Polls! Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 18 in WA. ...

2008-06-11T20:28:00.001-04:00

New Polls!

Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 18 in WA.

Suffolk has Obama by 23 in MA.

The EV regression, win % and pop vote should all go up. MA and WA already safe (90%+) and should increase (MA by couple points, WA by a point or so).

H2H, I think that America is ready for a President...

2008-06-11T20:28:00.000-04:00

H2H, I think that America is ready for a President with herpes.

Or rather, Sarah: Obama is the first president in ...

2008-06-11T19:56:00.000-04:00

Or rather, Sarah: Obama is the first president in a long time to inherit the Middle East in such a condition that really, truly, nothing can be done.

I think Obama will continue to pull away in Michig...

2008-06-11T19:31:00.000-04:00

I think Obama will continue to pull away in Michigan. I think McCain's economic message of "you're on your own" isn't really going to resonate in that state!

Ohio is a weird state, but I think it's probably somewhat similar to Michigan as far as the economic message.

This is good news...Now if Obama can withstand the attack machine and put some attacks of his own out there, he's going to win this thing.

Sarah, don't worry too much about the Jerusalem re...

2008-06-11T19:09:00.000-04:00

Sarah, don't worry too much about the Jerusalem remarks. Everyone, including Bush, says the same thing during the campaign but no one ever follows it.

My comments on Michigan versus Pennsylvania weren'...

2008-06-11T18:41:00.000-04:00

My comments on Michigan versus Pennsylvania weren't meant to say anything meaningful about Pennsylvania or Michigan in general, just meant to point out that there is now an incongruence between the ordering of the must-win states and the scenarios in which the top must-win states are lost while the whole election is won.

Pennsylvania, Ohioh, and Michigan are all swing states and there's no reason to separate them from anything. In fact, setting Ohio, then Pennsylvania, then Michigan as the states which lost are interesting scenarios, in that order, in fact is separating them. But, there is a good way to say that Michigan is more interesting to lose in this run of the regression, and that's by noting that it rates significantly higher on the must-win metric (over 2% while all of the 51 contests lie between 40% and 90%, meaning that the average difference between consecuitive states is less than 1% and so this represents over twice the average differential between similar states).

"Ignore the national numbers and focus only on sta...

2008-06-11T18:31:00.000-04:00

"Ignore the national numbers and focus only on states. Just ask Giuliani(15pt) and Hillary (30 pt) with leads before Iowa turned out ? Typically, Democratic candidates "waste" votes in states such as CA, NY, & IL by running up higher margins (reflected in the national numbers) but not translating into an EV advantage. The general rule fo thumb isthat a Dem. has to run about 2% higher in the national race to be even to the Repub."

But Giuliani and Clinton were running in primaries, where the races are staggered, and generate momentum for the winner of each race. In the general, sure, the electoral college is what matters, but you may not always have a lot of recent state-level polling data.
Using national polls not only gives you more data - but it gives you more data, taken within a narrow period of time. One poll might be an outlier - but if 5 polls say something, that is less likely (unless they have flawed methodology).

So say there is an October surprise a week before the election (McCain has herpes). SurveyUSA manages to get some state-level polls in at the last second - the only polls to account for the October surprise, and find that the herpes finding has a 2 point downward impact, except in Michigan, where McCain actually goes up 1 point.

Five national polls are taken at the same time, all show a 3 point drop in McCain's support. How much faith would you put in that SUSA poll of Michigan?

Anonymous: "It appears that Michigan now is more m...

2008-06-11T18:07:00.000-04:00

Anonymous: "It appears that Michigan now is more must-win than Pennsylvania but this isn't reflected in the scenarios."

That's because, whatever our feeling that PA is very likely to go Dem, it's still a swing state in Nate's simulations. Look at the win percentages (as of 6pm, 6/11/08):

PA 68% O (21)
CO 67% O (09)
MO 66% M (11)
WI 66% O (10)
VA 63% M (13)
NM 62% O (05)
NH 55% M (04)
NV 52% M (05)
MI 51% M (17)
OH 51% M (20)

There isn't a good way to separate PA as less important while it's still closely bunched up with so many other swing states. PA's 21 EV are going to dominate in the swing states, probably until it reaches something like a >75% win percentage.

I kind of agree with your point. Personally, I think OH/MI/VA is the swing state triptych to watch for the general. But the regressions aren't saying that yet, and it looks like Nate's going by the numbers here - so PA still ranks as a heavy must win.

Which, by the way, is true - MI isn't that influential unless you already have PA locked down. MI is just the one we're worrying about more because it's so close.

.

Rasmussen now has Obama up 53-35 in Washington (+1...

2008-06-11T18:03:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen now has Obama up 53-35 in Washington (+18), a 7-point bounce compared to the previous Rasmussen poll. The Rasmussen trend is Obama -1 (2/29), +5 (3/27), +11 (5/12), and now +18. The last three polls in the state are Obama +18, +17, +16. And yet, this is a swing state according to McCain.

It appears that Michigan now is more must-win than...

2008-06-11T17:12:00.000-04:00

It appears that Michigan now is more must-win than Pennsylvania but this isn't reflected in the scenarios. You should make it so that the regression selects which states are important for the scenarios rather than doing it by hand.

What I mean is the scenarios should instead include:

...
loses OH, wins
loses OH/MI, wins
loses OH/MI/PA, wins
...

"Ignore the national numbers and focus only on sta...

2008-06-11T17:04:00.000-04:00

No reason that national polls can't have an effect...

2008-06-11T16:43:00.000-04:00

No reason that national polls can't have an effect on on the 538 popular vote count right?