Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Montana Projection: Obama by 18

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2009-10-09T03:59:52.795-04:00

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2009-02-09T01:36:00.000-05:00

Oh, and Chuck, it's Bozeman, not Butte, that has t...

2008-06-03T15:25:00.000-04:00

Oh, and Chuck, it's Bozeman, not Butte, that has the big college (MSU). Butte is home to the tiny campus of Montana Tech.

Bozeman is also affluent and has seen a huge population boom. I expect this (Gallatin) to be Obama's strongest county, followed by Missoula county.

guachi/Anonymous:I've been to all three campuses. ...

2008-06-03T15:14:00.000-04:00

guachi/Anonymous:

I've been to all three campuses. MSU-Billings is a little less than half the size of the other two. But Billings, being the most populous city in the state, has a lot more to it than simply the college. There were both Obama and Hillary rallies in Billings, each pulled 2,000 supporters.

As far as your comment about Butte goes... Butte is the most hard-core Democrat city I think I've ever been in. It is low-income, very (very!) union, very white and frankly feels like it's stuck in about 1956.

The eye-witness report from Butte is that the main polling location at the civic center is plastered (on its exterior) in Hillary signs without so much as an Obama sticker in sight. My friend went to the poll to vote for Obama but was told he couldn't register today, which is patently false.

It saddens me to say this but Clinton +10 in SD an...

2008-06-03T13:23:00.000-04:00

It saddens me to say this but Clinton +10 in SD and Obama +15 in MT. I hope the results don't change anything and we can now move on the the general election.

The above Anonymous is correct. Missoula and Boze...

2008-06-03T12:49:00.000-04:00

The above Anonymous is correct. Missoula and Bozeman are the big college towns. Billings is the largest city in the state by far and has a small college, but it is located in the conservative eastern half of the state.

Look for the locations where the Indian reservations are located (Deer Lodge and the area east of Billings where the Crow Reservation is) to go heavy to Obama.

Also, Butte is by far the most Democratic city in Montana and I'd be curious to see if it goes to Obama or Clinton.

Montana, for what it's worth, is the least black state in the union (but not the whitest as MT has a sizeable portion of Native Americans).

The major Montana college towns are Missoula (Univ...

2008-06-03T12:23:00.000-04:00

The major Montana college towns are Missoula (University of Montana) and Bozeman (Montana State). Butte and Billings have colleges, but they are a tenth the size of U of M and MSU.

Lisa,Perhaps I overstated my point. I agree that ...

2008-06-03T11:58:00.000-04:00

Lisa,
Perhaps I overstated my point. I agree that the same-day registration is very important.

I'll stick with my opinion that Missoula and Butte are the BIG college towns.

How about this as a comprimise: I'll be watching Yellowstone and Cascade counties for a strong Barack turnout to overcome the rural eastern MT counites. With secondary counties being Hill (Havre)and Park (next largest 2). Followed by Native populations in Roosevelt and Little Big Horn Counties.

Are the delegate estimates backwards?The bulk of t...

2008-06-03T10:18:00.000-04:00

Are the delegate estimates backwards?

The bulk of the piece suggests that Clinton is stronger in the East, and Obama in the West, but in the delegate tallies, the % chance of Obama going 4-1 is in the East, and the % chance of Clinton winning is in the West...?

Pablo -- Nate isn't arguing that the GE projection...

2008-06-03T09:43:00.000-04:00

Pablo -- Nate isn't arguing that the GE projections are predictions, he has actually posted analysis about the reasons those numbers aren't predictive.

Oh, to be at Truby's in Whitefish tonight...

2008-06-03T09:41:00.000-04:00

Oh, to be at Truby's in Whitefish tonight...

That ARG poll is joke. I think that indeed Hillary...

2008-06-03T08:28:00.000-04:00

That ARG poll is joke. I think that indeed Hillary's best shot is South Dakota, the 8th oldest state in the nation. But 20+ spread seems pretty odd. I think that her supporters may be energize today, trying to see her going on a "high note." I think that it is close because Hillary's people are not talking about margins, that was not the case in West Virginia and Kentucky. I could become more like Indiana.

That's in part because Limbaugh only instructed hi...

2008-06-03T07:35:00.000-04:00

That's in part because Limbaugh only instructed his supporters to vote, not caucus.

Let's face it, Limbaugh turned both the Texas and Indiana races in her favor. Without that, this race is over much earlier - Limbaugh has done exactly what he wanted to do - prolong this race.

Pablo,That is a fair point on caucuses (especially...

2008-06-03T06:56:00.000-04:00

Pablo,

That is a fair point on caucuses (especially on Super Tuesday), except that some states have had caucuses and primaries. In Texas, those were held on the same day - Obama won the caucus by 12 and lost the primary by 4.

One more comment: I am tired of seeing analyses, s...

2008-06-03T06:41:00.000-04:00

One more comment: I am tired of seeing analyses, such as one in Huffington Post saying that Obama won because of caucuses or in 538 saying that Clinton is winning the GE simulations. These all presume that everything else is static. Obama won in caucuses, yes, but he also diverted attention to caucuses during Super Tuesday instead of working to the end in California. He might have had a different strategy if caucuses weren't there. The point is that he gave it thought, showing more nimble strategy that would serve a president well.

And the GE simulations also presume much. First, her supporters are pissed off now - I can't for the lift of me figure it out - it's a whiny bunch. First they say if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen, I love the heat, this is the fun part, etc, etc, but when they lose, they start crying about how unfair it is. For the love of God, they are working hard to permanently alienate their supporters for Obama. But some of that will change and when it does, the GE prospects for Obama will improve. Obama's supporters aren't as unhappy, and thus tell pollsters they'd gladly vote for Clinton if she was the nominee.

Why that isn't part of the analysis, I don't know.

Pablo

Your projection for SD is off by 31 from ARG (Clin...

2008-06-03T06:23:00.000-04:00

Your projection for SD is off by 31 from ARG (Clinton +26) and your projection for MT is off from ARG by 14 (O +4).

Using my sophisticated analysis (HA!), I find that ARG has polled 23 states and their mean error in favor of Clinton has been 10%. The median and mode are both 7% errors in the margin in Clinton's favor (IN, MD, PA, and WI). The range has been 17 off in Obama's favor (NH) to 26 off in Clinton's favor (SC). In six states, they've overestimated the margin in favor of Obama (NH, RI, VT, CA, MO, TX) and in 17 they've overestimated the results in Clinton's favor.

In four contests they predicted the wrong winner (NH, DE - off by 13, CT - off by 17, and IA - off by 17).

So in order for your analysis to be correct, ARG would have to have their most colossal blunder yet in their SD prediction.

I'm guessing the median/mode kicks in and it's Clinton by 19 in SD and Obama by 11 in Montana.

My analysis took much less time and energy than yours -let's see who's right:)

Pablo

7. Oh, I almost forgot this but that's because it ...

2008-06-03T06:09:00.000-04:00

7. Oh, I almost forgot this but that's because it would be more as a gag as per your earlier post, but you could include the chance of each state necessitating a recount and then calculate the chance that a recount would be needed anywhere in the country. You could even consider this for one of your six pie chart spots at the top of the right column. :)

Hey, Poblano, do you have the final site layout an...

2008-06-03T06:02:00.000-04:00

Hey, Poblano, do you have the final site layout and the final version of your regression model finalized in case Clinton drops tomorrow? If you don't I have a few suggestions/requests:

1. Kerry's run alone clearly hasn't been that great for predicting voting trends and turn out. You should include two losing years and two winning years in the 538 regression (i.e. Kerry, Gore, Clinton, and Clinton) and also weight them according to their age as you do with polls.

2. The 538 Regression should lose weight as the data it is based on becomes older, otherwise everything will regress toward Kerry's run no matter what ridiculous stuff happens this year, and Obama is no Kerry despite McCain being a pretty good Bush.

3. The nation-wide popular vote isn't as interesting as the state-by-state popular vote. Since your left column appears sized for your ads you might consider putting this in where Clinton's percentage is.

4. The swing state analysis and win percentage are interesting but they poise as many questions as they answer. It would be cool if clicking on one of the states at right brought up a small window (like this post window) which gave a more complete state analysis, possibly including a graph of the distribution of popular votes in the 10,000 runs as well as a graph for how the state has been predicted to go over time, similar to those you have for the entire election. Also a demographic and political affiliation breakdown would be interesting. Alternatively you could bring up a single page which had in-depth analyses for all the states so that they could be compared easily. This would make it easier to see which states appear to be fluctuating more and causing the biggest changes in how the election will go (i.e. maybe not the most important swing state at any point in time but the states which should still be looked at as swingable versus those which never move despite appearing competitive).

5. It would also be very cool if you could write a program which will use your newest regression model and your newest pollster weightings after all of the primary results come in to regress what the polls actually said about the general election win percentage each day (or week) since Wisconsin. If you could have this automated then you could simply re-run it at any time for any set of polling data or any election really and I feel it would be a powerful analytical tool for prescribing campaign tactics in general.

6. Free frogurt for your long-time readers.

Hey the turnout wasn't that bad for Obama in Great...

2008-06-03T03:06:00.000-04:00

Hey the turnout wasn't that bad for Obama in Great Falls, he got 2400 to show up. Granted, they didn't fill the 6000-seat venue like they wanted to, but 2400 in Great Falls is pretty great.

Did Obama really get pathetic turnout for his rall...

2008-06-03T03:00:00.000-04:00

Did Obama really get pathetic turnout for his rally in Great Falls? Ouch. Great Falls is one of the biggest cities in Montana and a bigtime Dem stronghold. What was the turnout anyone?

Does your model include any projections about whet...

2008-06-03T02:24:00.000-04:00

Does your model include any projections about whether Clinton voters are more motivated to turn out for the primaries now that the nomination result is certain? It seems like most Obama folks realize it's over, while most Clinton voters still believe in the idea of a "protest vote," or, more charitably, a "show of support."

I've wondered whether the KY, OR, and PR numbers have been skewed by this effect. And perhaps even more so in SD and MT.