Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-02T05:24:12.722-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-08-28T02:48:32.456-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

2009-07-22T03:24:24.905-04:00

キャッシング
網頁設計
クレジットカード　現金化
ダンボール
留学
水　通販
ウィークリーマンション
障害者
有料老人ホーム
看板　製作
レーザー脱毛
フランチャイズ

アダルトＤＶＤアダルトＤＶＤ無料出会い出会い系サイトアダルトサイトアダルト

2009-07-13T22:42:02.176-04:00

アダルトＤＶＤ
アダルトＤＶＤ
無料出会い
出会い系サイト
アダルトサイト
アダルト

クレジットカード　現金化キャッシングインプラント網頁設計水　通販会社設立留学コンタ...

2009-07-13T22:41:30.753-04:00

クレジットカード　現金化
キャッシング
インプラント
網頁設計
水　通販
会社設立
留学
コンタクトレンズ
アルカリイオン水
ダンボール

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

2009-04-16T04:22:00.000-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:22:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:22:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T21:19:00.000-05:00

The ballots are now all counted, and the result is...

2008-12-29T12:18:00.000-05:00

The ballots are now all counted, and the result is Franken by 46. Uncanny prediction man!

Of course it's not over yet. There's now a mess to deal with over the unopened, improperly rejected absentee ballots. So it's still anybody's game.

Dude. You are one crazy bastard!Jack Handy/2008!

2008-12-04T12:06:00.000-05:00

Dude. You are one crazy bastard!

Jack Handy/2008!

Holy sh!t. Franken's ahead by 22 votes now... You'...

2008-12-04T03:23:00.000-05:00

Holy sh!t. Franken's ahead by 22 votes now... You're 5 votes out man! What's wrong with you!?

fucking awesome prediction

2008-12-03T20:58:00.000-05:00

fucking awesome prediction

Franken has himself by 22.. Scary..

2008-12-03T18:24:00.000-05:00

Franken has himself by 22.. Scary..

As a grad of Two Harbors HS i hope you aree right....

2008-11-26T10:41:00.000-05:00

As a grad of Two Harbors HS i hope you aree right. i doubt Franken will roll over like Gore and Kerry did in florida and ohio. Gore really blew it. I believe the deaths of Senators Wellstone and Carnahan were no accidents. As Jean Carnahan won her husband's seat, evil forces made sure they killed Shiela Wellstone as well for she would have taken Coleman to the cleaners, which is where he needs to be now as his filthiness is for all to see. If there's a revote, Franken wins. for instance in the contested precinct in TH mccain and coleman both got 175
obama got about 350, al only 273 all other votes went to the independent.

HiI was able to replicate your descriptive statist...

2008-11-25T21:56:00.000-05:00

Hi
I was able to replicate your descriptive statistics, but I'm having some trouble replicating your regression results. Could you post the code you used to generate your data/run your regression?
Thanks

Here is what Franken sent me today...The Senate ra...

2008-11-25T17:11:00.000-05:00

Here is what Franken sent me today...

The Senate race here in Minnesota is getting closer and closer by the day. And while we don't yet know who got more votes on Election Day, we're going to fight to ensure that every lawful vote is counted.

Here's where we stand: As of this morning, we believe that Norm Coleman's lead had shrunk to less than 100 votes, and the margin continues to get smaller. Meanwhile, the Coleman campaign continues to challenge as many ballots as they can in the hopes of making their margin look bigger.

They even challenged a whole batch of ballots where it's clear that the voter intended to vote for Al Franken - just because the voter also voted for John McCain!

Obviously Coleman is going to continue to use every trick Rove has to try to win even without having the most votes.

Good job, Barkley. Way to pull a Nader and force u...

2008-11-25T12:42:00.000-05:00

Good job, Barkley. Way to pull a Nader and force us into a recount that the Republicans will probably cheat in.
Don't blame Barkley, blame Minnesota. If Instant Runoff Voting had been used, I bet you Barkley would have handily won.

The problem with your analysis is you ignored the ...

2008-11-25T09:55:00.000-05:00

The problem with your analysis is you ignored the hypothesis that Al Franken is being more aggressive than Norm Coleman and is challenging votes in precincts where he has lost votes.

Cool, this is fabulous! I'm a fan of check your in...

2008-11-25T09:36:00.000-05:00

Cool, this is fabulous! I'm a fan of check your intuition, but verify. Personally I go completely by intuition since I do so much on the ground organizing. I have correctly predicted all elections I've volunteered for within a couple percent. I talked to hundreds, maybe thousands of voters in the months before the election, and Franken just wasn't catching fire. A fairly typical response to the standard question (these were mostly Dems now) "Can the DFL ticket count on your support this Nov?" was, "All except one!" A friend pointed me to this post, as I have been saying since two weeks before the election that I'm calling it for Franken by 25 votes. He'll squeak by, just like he did at the DFL endorsing convention in Rochester. Let this be a lesson to everyone! If you want to run statewide, more than money, you need the people who matter, including the unions, way, way before the endorsing convention. Hatch proved it, Klobuchar proved it.

Trying to any sort of claim at a level of 27 out o...

2008-11-25T07:00:00.000-05:00

Trying to any sort of claim at a level of 27 out of 2.9 million votes is ludicrous. The margins of error are?? They need to be known but it's safe to assume they are large enough to make a prediction of 27---.001%---without adequate supporting stats to speak to the likelihood and confidence in that figure. To address large scale issues, the Margins leave a big range that any predicted outcome is one of merely many others.
27 is a lone voice in the wild. I f you came up with some range of sufficient values to make the claim that "might be right" is found in that given range presents less precision but greater likelihood of capturing the real value. But all of this is contingent on the confidence interval. A CI is used to define how likely it is that the correct value is to be found in the range of outcomes within the range created from all of the samples.

27 isn't sui generis. What are the MOE and CI?

There's a tendency to start off the blocks with constructing quantitative variables to be counted, et al. The qualitative analysis of identifying all relevant variables that need to be addressed needs to be as thorough as possible for any other variable construction and tests.

Relevant here is that Nate has ignored hordes of variable and has focused on the easy one.

Location issues--some refereed to this issue when talking about precinct/count/district/state local issues.

That uber-concept sires:
Party reg. make-up in that locale
Prior voting history
Voting method--they can vary with a district and county,
Machine reliability--some locations get worse machines than others--for the same time of machine
Demographics--elderly, disabled, lower educated, lesser fluency in English, first time voters,

Those all need to be taken into account for analyzing irregularities. But the same applies to the elementary construction of Nate's samples that he uses as variables in his on-going equations. For example, if the higher end objections against Coleman are correlated within a certain type of demographic character and part of the built-up for Nate's stuff includes that as part of extrapolating to the whole: Perhaps that inclusion is overweighted to apply elsewhere. Maybe that particular Coleman bias profile applies to a few other locations in that state with similar demos. Maybe he's picked up outliers, etc. and have made them part of the stew used to come up with his constants and coefficients.

You can apply the most cutting edge statistical methods to the data, but if you haven't designed the qualitative overarching design and ends, and the qualitative variables as either made quantifiable or not, and not developed the relevant variables appropriately, you end up with junk.

Nick said... Nate, I love your math -- until...

2008-11-25T01:25:00.000-05:00

Nick said...

Nate,

I love your math -- until the very very end. 254 + 12 = 266. But you are still the man.
November 24, 2008 8:21 AM

Sorry Nick, "This multivariate model produces a slightly more optimistic result for Franken, suggesting that he will gain 254 votes statewide and Coleman will lose 12, producing a net swing of 268 votes toward Franken.)"

Franken gains 254 and Coleman loses 12 which equals +254 Franken and -12 Coleman, hence, therefore, ergo +266 Franken.

Nate's off by 2 lol

and yes, Nate's the man!

I can replicate your descriptive statistics, but n...

2008-11-24T22:42:00.000-05:00

I can replicate your descriptive statistics, but not you regression.
Would you mind posting the code you used to create the data for this regression? Following along with your posted methodology produces wildly different results.

Twenty-seven? Weird Al says hi...

2008-11-24T21:31:00.000-05:00

Twenty-seven? Weird Al says hi...

hey folks, nice stats discussion you nerds! mind i...

2008-11-24T20:30:00.000-05:00

hey folks, nice stats discussion you nerds! mind if i add to it?

yeah, it'd be great to see the CIs, & models w/ & w/out interactions, with non-linear functions, (& AICc model comparison to boot).

but mostly i'd like to know nate, what is the probability distribution you're using for the response?

i'd at least throw it into a gamma-distributed glm (quickish), but ideally non-linear.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

キャッシング 網頁設計 クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール 留学 水 通販 ウィークリ...

アダルトＤＶＤ アダルトＤＶＤ 無料出会い 出会い系サイト アダルトサイト アダルト

クレジットカード 現金化 キャッシング インプラント 網頁設計 水 通販 会社設立 留学 コンタ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 ...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

The ballots are now all counted, and the result is...

Dude. You are one crazy bastard!Jack Handy/2008!

Holy sh!t. Franken's ahead by 22 votes now... You'...

fucking awesome prediction

Franken has himself by 22.. Scary..

As a grad of Two Harbors HS i hope you aree right....

HiI was able to replicate your descriptive statist...

Here is what Franken sent me today...The Senate ra...

Good job, Barkley. Way to pull a Nader and force u...

The problem with your analysis is you ignored the ...

Cool, this is fabulous! I'm a fan of check your in...

Trying to any sort of claim at a level of 27 out o...

Nick said... Nate, I love your math -- until...

I can replicate your descriptive statistics, but n...

Twenty-seven? Weird Al says hi...

hey folks, nice stats discussion you nerds! mind i...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

アダルトＤＶＤアダルトＤＶＤ無料出会い出会い系サイトアダルトサイトアダルト

クレジットカード　現金化キャッシングインプラント網頁設計水　通販会社設立留学コンタ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...