Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Incoming!

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2009-10-09T04:23:24.974-04:00

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2009-02-10T22:52:00.000-05:00

I've always figured the RNC is more afraid of Hill...

2008-05-30T17:50:00.000-04:00

I've always figured the RNC is more afraid of Hillary, since they say (or had been saying) that they were eager to face her... that's just classic reverse psychology, isn't it?

I'd be very curious to see a similar analysis of MSM coverage. My impression has been that the Obama campaign has not done a great deal of attacking because they've been able to let the media go negative, while the Clinton campaign has not had that luxury. I'm surprised that the disparity is so great, though. Nice analysis!

Excellent analysis, very informative -- it's great...

2008-05-30T00:51:00.000-04:00

Excellent analysis, very informative -- it's great to see the scope of your analysis steadily expanding. Thanks as always!

Something slightly on topic concerning media narra...

2008-05-29T20:18:00.000-04:00

Something slightly on topic concerning media narratives for each candidate for those of you interested:

http://journalism.org/node/11266

The data looks to end in early March so I think it probably misses a lot of the more recent trends (ie more positive views of Clinton on Fox News) but it might give evidence for or against a lot of theories people are throwing around.

I've been hoping someone would make this point in ...

2008-05-29T20:06:00.000-04:00

I've been hoping someone would make this point in the wake of all this noise about Clinton's relatively strong polling at the moment. I'd also add that while the hits to McCain have been not hugely less than the hits to Obama, I suspect that they've had less impact because the spotlight has been squarely on the Democratic nomination battle, and so headlines with the Democrats in them are more likely to register more.

Other commentors have noted that the polling also likely reflects the current bitterness on the part of Clinton supporters. Clinton's argument about her relative strength completely fails to incorproate the fact that she'd be facing no small amount of bitterness herself if she somehow managed to get the nomination at this stage. It's easy now for Obama supporters to say they'd hypothetically vote for Clinton in a Clinton-McCain match up. But that doesn't begin to measure how much disaffection would set in if the superdelegates bypassed the guy who won the majority of elected delegates to get to Clinton. Hard to gauge what the impact of that would be.

In short, I really don't think there's any evidence that Clinton actually would run better in November. The two factors I've just mentioned easily erase her relatively small advantage. And I would tend to think she'd actually run worse. Depending on exactly how she managed to wrest the nomination from Obama at this late stage, she might run MUCH worse.

Pat Newcomb:"Here's what I call an attack - "she'l...

2008-05-29T19:23:00.000-04:00

Pat Newcomb:

"Here's what I call an attack - "she'll do or say anything to get elected" (as if he didn't)
This is not an attack --
"My opponent has less experience in government and politics than I do" - That's just simply the truth."

If we're going to be fair then let's be fair. "she'll do or say anything to get elected" is an attack but it's also true of Clinton.

"My opponent has less experience in government and politics than I do" doesn't appear to be an attack but its truth is debatable. Obama has held elective office for more years than Clinton has and has held important positions in Illinois politics for many years before that. Clinton, on the other hand, has only her marriage and campaigning for republicans prior to her current seating in the senate.

As she often does, she says "experience in government and politics" here rather something simple like "time in governement" because she is allowing herself to later define what exactly she means if anyone ever calls her on it. "Experience" and "politics" are both intentional vagueries on her part which make her statement ultimately useless as something substantive and purposed solely to smear her opponent in relation to herself, not actually give the public something insightful upon which to make an informed decision. Only by including her marriage and her time volunteered for republicans can you come to the conclusion that she has spent more time in "politics and government", and it's still not clear that that amounts to more "experience".

Remember, these people have all gone to law school so they know the importance of specificity in language. It is more instructive to look at what they are specifically saying (as long as they aren't misspeaking) than what they imply their intent is.

Pat Newcomb:Obviously, this only measures a single...

2008-05-29T15:49:00.000-04:00

Pat Newcomb:

Obviously, this only measures a single vehicle of attack. Doesn't pretend to do otherwise.

But I'd love to see your research into this question using the text of speeches of both candidates! Would you also include off-the-cuff remarks?

Gus

Wow, what a bunch of skewed self-serving trifle th...

2008-05-29T15:37:00.000-04:00

Wow, what a bunch of skewed self-serving trifle this is! - How clever of you to only track press releases? That's not where the action is. It's in those wonderful stump speeches going all the way back to July 2007.
Here's what I call an attack - "she'll do or say anything to get elected" (as if he didn't)
This is not an attack --
"My opponent has less experience in government and politics than I do" - That's just simply the truth.

You're going to have to do better to convince anyone who wasn't already looking for justification of their own point of view in your fancy distortion of the facts.

If Hillary was the front runner or what they feare...

2008-05-29T14:22:00.000-04:00

If Hillary was the front runner or what they feared most, the Republicans would bury her. Obama has gone easy on Clinton because he'd like to be able to pull the party together starting next week.

If the skeletons of Hillary's past that Rove & Co would dig up had been used against her, there's no way she'd be doing as well in the polls as she is. There's more than one dirty issue available to tag Clinton with for every day of the general election. The GOP swiftboaters would be like kids in a candy store if she took the nomination.

The other thing that the Clinton polls don't show would be the backlash if after winning the delegates, Clinton stole it.

Excellent analysis! Now if Hillary would just sto...

2008-05-29T13:40:00.000-04:00

Excellent analysis! Now if Hillary would just stop her whining...

This can't be highlighted enough. Clinton would be...

2008-05-29T13:27:00.000-04:00

This can't be highlighted enough. Clinton would be hammered much more in the polls if Obama and the RNC weren't being so easy on her. Imagine the terrible ads that could be made against her that aren't being aired.

Yet she has been attacking him, and his supporters all along. I guess that what I take personally--all the attacks that we are naive and cultists to support him. It turns us off to no end.

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

2008-05-29T12:50:00.000-04:00

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

Great analysis. It certainly lends support to my ...

2008-05-29T12:11:00.000-04:00

Great analysis. It certainly lends support to my belief that Clinton's general election poll numbers are artificially inflated due to the lack of attacks from Obama and Republicans that she would be certain to face if she were the nominee. Not to mention the fact that Obama's general election poll numbers already have built in the resentment factor of Clinton supporters saying they won't vote for him (fanned by Clinton), while the opposite is not nearly as strong (but would be if supers were to steal the nomination from Obama).

On one other issue, however, I must disagree with some of my fellow Obama supporters. While I agree that Republicans would much rather face Clinton in the fall than Obama, I do not think RNC press releases is good evidence for this proposition. Their press releases seem to track whoever has the front runner status. Otherwise, you would have to say the RNC feared Clinton more than Obama in late 2007, since more attacks were directed at her in that time frame.

This just goes to show that this race has been ove...

2008-05-29T11:54:00.000-04:00

This just goes to show that this race has been over since Wisconsin. The media may not have noticed, but the Republicans did.

RE: Michael @ May 29, 2008 3:30 AMHe said this abo...

2008-05-29T10:38:00.000-04:00

RE: Michael @ May 29, 2008 3:30 AM

He said this above:
"Also, this should be obvious, but the idea was to account for attacks only, so I didn't count instances in which say a DNC press release mentioned Clinton, or a McCain release mentioned McCain himself."

So, he filtered out articles/releases that weren't attacks.

RE: brandon @ May 29, 2008 6:03 AM

It is untrue that Obama is the weaker GE candidate. It seems you've fallen for the Clinton Spin.

Brandon...Republicans are currently boosting Hilla...

2008-05-29T08:29:00.000-04:00

Brandon...Republicans are currently boosting Hillary more than they're boosting McCain. To think that they would do so because they think she's the stronger opposition to McCain is absurd.

They still want to go up against Hillary, but their virtually panic-stricken that it looks like Obama is going to get the nomination, and they're doing whatever they can to stop it.

It's all backfiring though, just as Hillary's efforts are. Those old politics don;t work in a YouTube world.

Great analysis!Brandon - Sen. Clinton looks like t...

2008-05-29T08:19:00.000-04:00

Great analysis!

Brandon - Sen. Clinton looks like the stronger GE candidate today, in May, because in the matchup polls he loses more Democrats to McCain than does Clinton. That might continue into the general, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Also, it would be nice if the Clinton campaign could stop setting up the argument that he stole the election. We had a primary. The rules were clear. If he gets more delegates, he wins. Period.

Those charts are very interesting. They confirm my...

2008-05-29T07:39:00.000-04:00

Those charts are very interesting.
They confirm my subjective impressions.

Would it be possible to display a diagram showing the attacks *from* a given candidate (or entity)?