Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Real Credibility Problems

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

2009-07-22T04:30:34.680-04:00

キャッシング
網頁設計
クレジットカード　現金化
ダンボール
留学
水　通販
ウィークリーマンション
障害者
有料老人ホーム
看板　製作
レーザー脱毛
フランチャイズ

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:57:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:57:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T01:20:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-18T07:29:00.000-05:00

Subject Line: Beat Long Poll Lines with Absentee B...

2008-10-30T03:24:00.000-04:00

Subject Line: Beat Long Poll Lines with Absentee Ballots from StateDemocracy.org
Many state and local election officials are encouraging voters to use Absentee Ballots to avoid the long lines and delays expected at the polls on November 4th due to the record-breaking surge in newly registered voters.
Voters in most states still have time to obtain an Absentee Ballot by simply downloading an official application form available through www.StateDemocracy.org, a completely FREE public service from the nonprofit State Democracy Foundation.
Read more: http://us-2008-election.blogspot.com/2008/10/beat-long-poll-lines-with-absentee.html

Well said. Love your site. It's on my daily list.

2008-10-07T11:25:00.000-04:00

Well said. Love your site. It's on my daily list.

One thing I have noticed a lack of quality in, is ...

2008-10-02T17:39:00.000-04:00

One thing I have noticed a lack of quality in, is RCP's selection of pro-McCain/Palin articles for "balance." Maybe it's to make things more interesting, but the quality suffers. William Kristol is, as Andrew Sullivan has pointed out, a clown and intellectual degenerate but his articles make the RCP cut and I shake my head every time I read them. There are conservative commentators like George Will that he does include, and like other reasonable people, Will has been jumping the McCain/Palin ship. Including the likes of Kristol alongside Will only lowers the level of discourse.

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong w...

2008-10-02T14:42:00.000-04:00

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong with a party sheep from the other side, and attempt to bait them into brawling.

This is not the same thing as "he called her a pig! Wahhhhhhhhhhhhh!." Not remotely.

Not all truth claims are equal. For example "Jesus was born of a virgin", cannot make the same claim to validity that
"the speed of light is 299 792 458 m / s." can.

This apathetic blindspot is at least half of what is currently wrong with America. It goes to the root of the bizarre hatred of intelligence, most graphically illustrated by the pervasive spread of creationism, GW denial and the enthusiastic embrace of intellectually inferior candidates.

THERE IS SUCH A THING AS OBJECTIVE TRUTH. Nate laid out clearly and concisely why RCP's methodology is flawed. Don't hide behind the partisan rethoric, take issue with the substance, if you can.

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong ...

2008-10-02T13:23:00.000-04:00

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong with a party sheep from the other side, and attempt to bait them into brawling.

you have a good number of page views. why waste blogging space on attacking another website?

i understand the blogs are "side dishes" as you say, but with each party sheep post you make, your credibility goes down.

Awesome. Thank you for pointing this out. And I co...

2008-10-02T13:08:00.000-04:00

Awesome. Thank you for pointing this out. And I couldn't agree more, numbers aren't bias and trying to fudge them, as so many people do, has no place in the marketplace.

outliers can sometimes be important, so they do de...

2008-10-02T12:58:00.000-04:00

outliers can sometimes be important, so they do deserve *some* weight, but the question is how much... i agree that until outliers with erratic history can receive more than a tiny weight, they must be validated independently by a second data point, or by some repeated measures at the minumum...

thus, it's all in the weights, as usual. it's all in the weights, baby

That all being said...isn't it good to have a rela...

2008-10-02T12:47:00.000-04:00

That all being said...isn't it good to have a relatively conservative projection. If RCP are intentionally skewing away from Obama and they still have him winning in Virginia and overall, that should add an extra degree of confidence (not the statistical kind)for Obama supporters. BTW Nate...they have Obama winning 353-185 with no tossups. All the better if that's the low outlier.

Great points, but sadly I'm an incurable RCP addic...

2008-10-02T12:41:00.000-04:00

Great points, but sadly I'm an incurable RCP addict. I wonder also if the proof isn't in the pudding: if you look back to 2004, they projected every state correctly except WI, which was incredibly close. They absolutely nailed the margins in OH, IA, MN, NH and were very close with CO. They (mis)underestimated Kerry in MI and PA, but they underestimated Bush in MO and FL. But if they miss badly this time, your point will by well-taken.

Yeah, but in '04 they were winning; there was no need to cook the books to boost morale for the GOP base.

harold,There's been many posts since you asked you...

2008-10-02T12:40:00.000-04:00

harold,

There's been many posts since you asked your question, so I'm not sure if you're still reading, but here's what I'm quite certain is the right answer, and no one appears to have said it yet:

Nate has clearly stated a number of time that his system is not projecting based solely on the numbers now (as in, if the election were held today)... Rather, it is attempting to make a prediction on how things will go down on Nov 4th, and based on Nate's findings, elections tend to get tighter as the voting deadline approaches. As such, the system has a variable built in that believes that the overall numbers will get better for the one who's behind (in this case, McCain). RCP's projection on the other hand is based on the hear-and-now. If Nate's system did the same, you'd see a higher average electoral vote disparity, and a much higher win percentage, in favor of the current leader.

Great work Nate on pointing this out. Do we know ...

2008-10-02T12:30:00.001-04:00

Great work Nate on pointing this out.

Do we know WHY they are doing this? I'm assuming they might be trying to keep the race 'competitive', so that they can bolster site visits?

Also, it's worth pointing out that they are linked to by almost every mainstream media outlet who presents polling averages in their content. It is no doubt in the interests of those media outlets to have a "closer than true" race, so RCP may be responding to that media driven demand for inflated numbers for the losing candidate?

@joey; @fred - VOTER SUPPRESSION IN VIRGINIA -E. R...

2008-10-02T12:30:00.000-04:00

@joey; @fred - VOTER SUPPRESSION IN VIRGINIA -E. Randall Wertz, registrar for Montgomery County, which includes Blacksburg and Va. Tech, has issued a warning that students who vote could lose scholarships and tax deductions. This is false. College students living away from home have two residences under Virginia law. The Virginia State Board of Elections web site does nothing to correct the error.

If RCP disclosed their methodology -- articulated ...

2008-10-02T12:28:00.000-04:00

If RCP disclosed their methodology -- articulated their rationale for excluding or including certain polls -- I would give them the benefit of the doubt. But they do not, so I do not.

You gave them benefit of the doubt. They simply exhausted it. Thank you for doing things the right way.

Love the site, and found Nate's RCP post interesti...

2008-10-02T12:24:00.000-04:00

Love the site, and found Nate's RCP post interesting.

However, despite RCPs questionable (to put it kindly) methodology, they are predicting Obama to net 353 EV. Nate is predicting "only" 336.

Bottom line: RCPs projections are in line despite their inconsistent poll inclusion criteria.

Disclosure: I'm speaking as an Obama supporter, w...

2008-10-02T12:21:00.000-04:00

Disclosure: I'm speaking as an Obama supporter, who does a (I hope reasonably unbiased, at least my Repubican readers think so) daily comment on tracking poll data, which I've recently started posting at http://trackingpolls.blogspot.com.

For the most part, I can't agree more with Nate's comment here, however there is one place I have to agree to an extent with RCP, which is that I find the internals of the R2K poll point to--at best--faulty trial design. The most glaring example is the 63-29 rout in their Northeast region, which includes PA and WV.

A 9 point Democratic party ID edge is probably pushing the envelope.

The preferences of their "other/refused" class seem to be significantly left-leaning (Obama 82, McCain 4); indeed I wonder if this category does not often include many voters far to the left of the candidate who are grudgingly giving him their support as many do for McCain on the extreme right. (He's more of an opportunist than an ideologue, folks.)

I could come up with a few other things I find odd, and honestly, as an Obama supporter, I wish I could believe this poll because it's the tracker most favorable to him, but I just can't.

RCP's data mining and clearly biased selection procedure is, however, reprehensible.

We will see how "swing" the swing voters are after...

2008-10-02T12:18:00.001-04:00

We will see how "swing" the swing voters are after tonight's VP debate.

If Palin does terrible, this election is Game Over.

If Palin does allright or better than expected, next week's polls will tell how much of a positive bump McCain's numbers get.

My guess is, if Palin does much better than expected, this race will be back within 2-3 points this time next week. Hopefully the swing voters are not that fickle where they would just jump BACK on the McCain/Palin bandwagon especially after the interviews she's given, but I have the uneasy feeling this race will get MUCH tighter in the next couple weeks if she does good tonight.

Biden's getting next to no buzz in this debate, it's all about Palin which can literally Slam Dunk this election for Obama if she does bad but can be another game-changer if she does well.

Here's a followup to that post about voter suppres...

2008-10-02T12:18:00.000-04:00

Here's a followup to that post about voter suppression:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marty-kaplan/why-the-debates-wont-matt_b_130104.html

In fact you have no idea. He may enjoy nothing mor...

2008-10-02T12:16:00.001-04:00

In fact you have no idea. He may enjoy nothing more than personal comments from posters. You're projecting your own personality onto him. Pretty selfish, really.

:)

Okay...if Nate loves people telling him how much he should blink in a television interview, then more power to him...but somehow I doubt it.

In a way I think it's good for the mainstream news...

2008-10-02T12:16:00.000-04:00

In a way I think it's good for the mainstream news to keep reporting that it's closer than it really is - that will make sure that Obama voters don't feel it's "in the bag" and don't bother voting. I think that's probably more of an issue for Obama voters than McCain voters.

But on the opposite side I'd kind of like the MSM news to report that Obama is up by a huge amount as it'd make any election day thievery by the GOP more obvious to everyone (rather than to just the well informed.)

A la PECOTA versus Street & Smiths.

2008-10-02T12:13:00.000-04:00

A la PECOTA versus Street & Smiths.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Real Credibility Problems

キャッシング 網頁設計 クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール 留学 水 通販 ウィークリ...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Subject Line: Beat Long Poll Lines with Absentee B...

Well said. Love your site. It's on my daily list.

One thing I have noticed a lack of quality in, is ...

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong w...

typical of any party sheep. find something wrong ...

Awesome. Thank you for pointing this out. And I co...

outliers can sometimes be important, so they do de...

That all being said...isn't it good to have a rela...

Great points, but sadly I'm an incurable RCP addic...

harold,There's been many posts since you asked you...

Great work Nate on pointing this out. Do we know ...

@joey; @fred - VOTER SUPPRESSION IN VIRGINIA -E. R...

If RCP disclosed their methodology -- articulated ...

Love the site, and found Nate's RCP post interesti...

Disclosure: I'm speaking as an Obama supporter, w...

We will see how "swing" the swing voters are after...

Here's a followup to that post about voter suppres...

In fact you have no idea. He may enjoy nothing mor...

In a way I think it's good for the mainstream news...

A la PECOTA versus Street & Smiths.

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...