Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Coleman's Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket...

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2009-10-02T05:26:39.613-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:25:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:21:00.000-05:00

My projection is depressingly consistent as new da...

2008-11-22T22:53:00.000-05:00

My projection is depressingly consistent as new data come in -- I now have Coleman winning by 50.

This assumes that:
- 75% of all challenges are against ballots counted for the other guy (requesting that they be thrown out); 25% are against ballots that were not previously counted (requesting that they be counted for you).

- 90% of all challenges, of either kind and by either side, will be denied.

- Candidates will continue to gain votes, in counties where the recount is partially completed, at the same rate they have previously been gaining votes in that county.

- Candidates will gain votes, in counties where the recount has not started, at the same rate that they have previously been gaining votes statewide.

I can change these assumptions easily if so desired.

Note: Holding constant all other assumptions:
- Coleman wins regardless of what % of challenges are of one type or the other.

However, if 75% of Franken's challenges are against votes for Coleman and 77% or more of Coleman's challenges are against votes for Franken (as opposed to against uncounted ballots), Franken wins.

- Coleman wins regardless of what percentage of all challenges are dismissed. However, if 90% of Franken's challenges are thrown out and 94% or more of Coleman's challenges are thrown out, Franken wins.

- My prediction assumes a net gain of 84 and 110 votes by Franken in St. Louis and Ramsey counties, and a net loss of 40 votes by Franken in Hennepin County - based on the results that have come out of those counties so far.

The numbers that matter the most...now are the und...

2008-11-22T21:55:00.000-05:00

The numbers that matter the most

...now are the underlying reasons for the ballot challenges. What also matters is any history and precedent by the canvassing board in how specific reasons underlying those challenges have been decided.

a post from anybody who has knowledge of that stuff would be a welcome addition.

Doesn't look like Al had a good day today. Total ...

2008-11-22T21:09:00.000-05:00

Doesn't look like Al had a good day today. Total votes lost on the recount are 669 for Coleman, 621 for Franken, a net gain of 48 for Franken since the original totals. Also, the challenged ballots are almost dead even. Coleman leads in the recount by a greater margin than the election, so there are still heavy Franken areas that aren't complete yet, but seems like a setback today, from my uninformed eyes.

For all you people who are having fun extrapolatin...

2008-11-22T17:53:00.000-05:00

For all you people who are having fun extrapolating and predicting (and I'm having fun reading what you write):

Don't assume that all the challenges that Franken makes are to votes for Coleman, and vice versa. Besides votes for minor or write-in candidates, there are, as other posters mentioned, undervotes and overvotes.

But a candidate could very well challenge a vote for himself, too -- or let pass a challenge on a vote for the opponent -- if the problem with the ballot were one that had turned up on lots of other ballots that mostly favored him. E.g.: on 10 ballots, the voters had circled the name Franken in addition to filling in the oval. The Coleman challenger challenges all of them. When another one turns up, this time with Coleman's name circled, the Coleman challenger may choose to challenge it, too, to bolster the case for the other 10 being discarded.

And of course, it's different people in each county. Even with directives from the campaigns, there will be inconsistencies.

But do keep the predictions and ideas coming! I love them!

Natatlie, there's no reason for Franken to concede...

2008-11-22T17:02:00.000-05:00

Natatlie, there's no reason for Franken to concede until the recount is complete. I agree that it looks unlikely that he'll overtake Coleman, but it's also likely to be pretty damn close. It's worth a shot.

It would be damn sweet to have Senator Franken working with President Obama in 2009.

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote b...

2008-11-22T16:41:00.000-05:00

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote by 12% but won the popular vote by a 7% margin!"

CNN Exit Polling: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1
-------------------------------
the white vote will get smaller and smaller for future elections. By 2016 the white vote will just be over 65%. If you can get 55-45 white votes and win the minority population, who by mid-century will be the majority the repubs might as well write their obit. They will never win a national election.

I've long thought that the last "aligning/realigni...

2008-11-22T16:31:00.000-05:00

I've long thought that the last "aligning/realigning" election (if such exist) was in 1932, but I find myself coming around to the generational argument of late. My latest thinking is that the aligning election was 1800 (where the informal agreement under which the Constitution was ratified lost) and that realignment has since taken place in proximity to the elections of 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968 and, yes, 2008.

I've long argued that either the communications/transportation revolution or the proxmity of Watergate to Vietnam resulted in no real realignment during my lifetime (1958 on.) I'm now inclined to think that the realignment did occur and that it was almost exclusively due to a foreign policy shift in the Democratic Party and an economic shift in the Republican Party post-1964. Both were present in the election of 1968. I've been of the opinion for decades that the last time the Republicans nominated an economic conservative for President was 1964 and that the last time they seriously considered do so was 1976. As to when the Democrats last nominated or even seriously considered nominating a hawk...

Franken seems to be going through a rough patch. ...

2008-11-22T16:27:00.000-05:00

Franken seems to be going through a rough patch. Per Strib, he's now down 147 votes with with 65% recounted, and 861 Coleman challenges versus 871 Franken challenges. Franken has fallen a little on intrade today as well. He's now at about 46.

Comment to Richard,Though I disagree with some of ...

2008-11-22T16:25:00.000-05:00

Comment to Richard,

Though I disagree with some of your arguments, I think in essence you've spotted the same flaw I recognize.

Let's make things simple. Suppose at the end of the day, each candidate has made 1000 challenges, and all of them are spurious. Do we conclude that no one will gain anything?

It depends. Suppose all the challenges are cases where the vote should go to Franken (challenged by Coleman) or where the vote shouldn't go to anyone (challenged by Franken). Then none of the Franken challenges are upheld, so those have no effect. Neither are any of the Coleman challenges, but that ends up as 1000 votes for Franken.

So there's a flaw in my argument. I STILL think it looks bad for Franken, but I admit it ain't over.

jqb, I'm not quite sure why my comment on the ligh...

2008-11-22T16:18:00.000-05:00

jqb, I'm not quite sure why my comment on the light side of things makes me an idiot. (And face it, Al WOULD have the opp to write a tremendous book considering the drama of this election, although my preference is that he will be too busy in the Senate.)

Serious discussion is wonderful, and is the main reason I come here. But if we decide that all persons who try to exhibit a sense of humor be excluded ... well, I can name one fantastic senate candidate who would be summarily expelled from our considerations.

The republican party will be in civil war until 20...

2008-11-22T15:57:00.000-05:00

The republican party will be in civil war until 2016 and probably lose in a Johnson type landslide in 2012 maybe winning those 10 red states that will never vote democratic but getting less than 100 ev, maybe only 60-70 if Texas falls.
The GOP seems to think the country is more conservative than it really is and until they realize that the have to move to the middle they will not win the presidency very often for the foreseeable future.
Until they can attract Hispanics and at least double digit AA votes they will be in a sorry state.

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote b...

2008-11-22T15:18:00.000-05:00

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote by 12% but won the popular vote by a 7% margin!"

CNN Exit Polling: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Well, Charles, I think you're right about this:"Br...

2008-11-22T15:13:00.000-05:00

Well, Charles, I think you're right about this:

"Brooks has become the new whipping boy of the far-right crowd. Even Limbaugh mentions him regularly in the context you mention. Eventually he'll be borne out as correct, I believe."

Democrats spent the entire 1970s and early 80's trying to figure out how to rebuild the New Deal coalition and have a second Johnson administration, without the war of course.

They failed to see that there had been severe DEMOGRAPHIC changes to America since 1968 that made that impossible!

Working class Whites resentful over the civil rights movement, opposed to integration, fearful of crime and social unrest, defining patriotism in terms of subservience to authority and generally DISLIKING the "weirdness" and what they saw as the reckless individuality of the "hippie movement" turned to the Republicans as the party of "God", "law & order" "patriotism" and "country."

The South especially has FLAT REFUSED to endorse ANY Northern Democrat since 1968.

The only way Democrats could win was by running a Southern evangelical like Jimmy Carter, or moderate Southern Governor like Bill Clinton.

And both of them won only because of scandal and economic recession.

That's what makes Obama's victory in states like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida so breath-taking. It's literally a whole new world when a Black Northern liberal from Chicago can win Florida and North Carolina.

And just like the switch of the "solid-South" to the Republican party starting in 1968, and culminating in the Reagan coalition, it's ALL about demographics.

Back in 2001 Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for Progress and the New Century Foundation wrote a masterful book entitled "The Emerging Democratic Majority" predicting just the same demographic shifts that Obama rode to victory this year. It came out just in time for him to be humiliated by the Republican triumph in the 2002 elections, but he's been proven right.

The White vote was 83% in 1996 and was 74% this November, a decline of 9% in 12 years as America slowly but inexorably becomes a majority-minority country.

For the last decade, non-whites have given Democratic Presidential candidates about 70% support or better. Obama won the non-white vote vote by 80%-20%! He won AA's (13%) by 94-3 of course, but he also won Hispanics (9%) by 67%-31%, Asians (2%) by 62%-35% and Other non-whites by (2%) 66%-31%.

To give you an idea how significant this is, George Bush won Whites by 17% in 2004, but only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.4%

Obama LOST the White vote by 12%, but won the popular vote total by 12%!

Even if he had done just as poorly as Kerry among Whites instead of 5% better, he would STILL have won the popular vote by nearly as much as Bush did in 2004 (2.0% versus 2.4%)!

Now, there is just absolutely NO future for the Republican party UNLESS they can start to win over Hispanics, Blacks, Asians and other non-whites who are GROWING as a percentage of the electorate in every single election cycle!

And they can't begin to compete with stale worked over "Southern Strategy" social and economic conservatism. Taken as a whole, Non-White voters are much more economically liberal than Whites, much LESS likely to favor tax cuts for the wealthy, government de-regulation, fiscal austerity, trade liberalism, and other nostrums of the right-wing.

Most are not opposed to government funded health care and retirement benefits and support increased taxes on the rich to pay for them. In short, the entire litany of "tax and spend liberalism" that McCain and the Republicans viciously attacked during this election campaign.

These views also mirror those of younger (under 29) voters as well.

Nor are non-whites in generally particularly socially conservative. They may oppose abortion, but are less likely to make that their main concern. They may oppose gay marriage, but not more so than society at large and in general are less prejudiced against gays the younger they are, just like White voters.

In short, they are just NOT at all aligned with conservative Republican values.

Republicans don't even have the language to approach these voters and are in fact doing everything in their power to alienate and drive them in ever increasing numbers to the Democratic party.

For example, Latinos 18-29 voted 76%-19% for Obama, even more than 18-29 Whites (54-44%). Nor are older Latinos (30-44) markedly more conservative, voting for Obama 63%-36%!

In short, as these voters grow older they will be a DEMOCRATIC cohort moving through the age brackets and supplying an increasing nucleus of a permanent governing Democratic majority, replacing the right-wing Reagan coalition with a progressively liberal-moderate axis for the foreseeable future.

Of course, all this does NOT mean that no Republican can win the White House in the future any more than the Reagan coalition prevented Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton from winning.

But, it does mean that any Republican will have to appeal MUCH more to the center than John McCain did.

The days of Karl Rove style elections where Republicans ran Swift-Boat campaigns designed to appeal to their base, polarize the electorate and win a 50% +1 election are over.

As a Minnesotan, the irony of the Coleman campaign...

2008-11-22T15:10:00.000-05:00

As a Minnesotan, the irony of the Coleman campaign is extreme. On Nov. 5, Coleman made a public statement that criticised Franken for "insisting" on a recount (though it's mandated by law), and expressing full confidence in the state's election system.

Now, however, the Coleman partisans have gone over the edge by essentially taking the position that nothing in the system can be trusted and that the recount is not only justified, but crucial.

And it matters little what Coleman feels about all of this. He is allowing these jackasses to be his voice. Sadly, what is most likely to stand out in this whole mess after it shakes out is the Coleman droids claiming that it is impossible someone could vote for McCain and Franken.

As for the "scribbles", where I voted the pens were terrible. I was completely aware of the need to avoid "spoiling" the ballot and I asked for a piece of paper to scribble on to get the ink flowing. This was denied, and one of the election workers picked up my pen and scribbled on my ballot until the ink was coming out. When I objected, I was assured that it didn't matter at all and that my ballot wasn't "spoiled". The election worker, in fact, chuckled as if the entire notion were silly.

The other tally...Since The Popular Vote post on 1...

2008-11-22T15:05:00.000-05:00

The other tally...

Since The Popular Vote post on 11/5, somewhere over 7 million votes have been added to the totals in the Presidential race. Approximately 60% of them have been votes for Obama. Obama's margin of victory is now over 6.9% total and 7% two-party.

It appears that a little less than 200,000 ballots remain to be processed in California (a quarter of that number in Los Angeles County.) The biggest remaining question mark, as it always is late in the certification period, is New York where Obama has over 60% of the reported vote and the 2008 total is 368,503 votes lower than the final 2004 total. It's not unreasonable to think that there may still be 750,000+ votes to be reported in New York so it's all but certain that Obama's margin of victory will exceed 9 million votes and 7% total and, given that it's likely there are a significant number of Illinois and Ohio votes yet to be reported, that the number of certified votes will surpass 130 million when all is said and done.

To "af" here and others with Spreadsheets and Silv...

2008-11-22T14:08:00.000-05:00

To "af" here and others with Spreadsheets and Silver Tongues: Can we get more from the STrib page Nate linked by breaking down the data in individual counties, before extrapolating and projecting as some have done above?

The idea is to subtract off challenges in individual counties that correlate with reductions in votes for the other side. You figure () those were machine-readable votes that were probably valid, and hence () they will probably get reinstated. Then fit the remaining challenges to Nate's model of %-recoverable error rate and Dem/Rep-lean. Hopefully the data will be "lumpy" enough for some patterns to emerge.

For example, the lines for the similar-sized Beltrami and Benton counties are

County-- %prec %vote Colem Chg Frank Chg Net C-ch F-ch
Beltrami 100 100 9,452 -2 10,032 +2 4 4 3
Benton-- 100 100 8,444 -25 6,462 -24 1 25 31

Why so many more challenges in Benton? Maybe one rogue box of smudging pens? Anyway, what you infer in Beltrami is that 2 of Franken's 3 challenges correspond to the -2 for Coleman, while Franken gained +2 despite 4 challenges from Coleman. Thus anyway you slice it, there were some undervotes that came out for Franken. In Benton, 24 of Coleman's 25 challenges only reduce Franken, leaving 1 over, while Franken has 6 left over after 25 reduce Coleman. Thus you infer that Franken's 6 are appeals of ballots ruled "no-vote", again indicating somethign about the underlying error rate, if not recoverable. (One would also need to fit to the county's reported undervotes, which info is not in the table.)

There is also weirdness in Washington County, which is only 96%/94% done, where Coleman is -46 despite only 37 challenges from Franken, and Franken is -53 despite only 43 challenges from Coleman.

The biggest "lump" so far is (naturally) in St. Louis County, where Coleman has issued 109 challenges to put Franken only -13, and Franken has 58 challenges to put Coleman only -8. Of course we know from the precincts with older "Eagle"-machines that there are real votes there. If we know those precincts' gains exactly then we can take them out and fit the rest to Nate's model. In Ramsey we can make a similar inference that Franken is picking up votes that haven't been made official yet. Meanwhile, in Hennepin County things seem to be all over the map...

Stephen Rose, not Charles. My bad. By way of apo...

2008-11-22T14:01:00.000-05:00

Stephen Rose, not Charles. My bad. By way of apology, here's a repeat of his link:

http://stephencrosehome.blogspot.com/2008/11/bush-funny-business-and-media-idiocy.html

back to topic,Cugel is wonderful, also Charles Koz...

2008-11-22T13:56:00.000-05:00

back to topic,

Cugel is wonderful, also Charles Kozierok. And I've become very fond of David Brooks in the last few years. In the early days of the emerging awfulness in Iraq, he said Bush was "AWOL". However, it would be a mistake to assume he's not a solid Republicans, he subtly pushes from time to time.

I hope, despite the length of this post, that anyo...

2008-11-22T13:53:00.000-05:00

I hope, despite the length of this post, that anyone not aware of its contents will read it so they know what is going on. (Thanks Charles Rose for the lead in.)

"What distinguishes this Administration in its final days—as in its earlier ones—is the purity of its cynicism. White House officials haven’t even bothered to argue that these new rules are in the public interest. Such a claim would, in any event, be impossible to defend, as just about every midnight regulation being proposed is, evidently, a gift to a favored industry."

"by the time that was finished, a good deal of the damage might already have been done. Once a power plant has been rebuilt, it can’t readily be unrebuilt."
"Now, of course, Bush has entered into his own midnight period, and it promises to be a dark time indeed. Among the many new regulations—or, rather, deregulations—the Administration has proposed are rules that would: make it harder for the government to limit workers’ exposure to toxins, eliminate environmental review from decisions affecting fisheries, and ease restrictions on companies that blow up mountains to get at the coal underneath them. Other midnight regulations in the works include rules to allow “factory farms” to ignore the Clean Water Act, rules making it tougher for employees to take family or medical leave, and rules that would effectively gut the Endangered Species Act. Most regulations are subject to public input; such is the sense of urgency that the Administration has brought to the task of despoliation that the Interior Department completed its “review” of two hundred thousand public comments on the endangered-species rules in just four days ... “So little time, so much damage” is how the Times recently put it."

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/11/24/081124taco_talk_kolbert

This is not news to Congress nor to the incoming administration, so what can be done is being done. But I believe it is important to be informed as to this, which comes as close to pure evil as much else that is going on in the world today (Zimbabwe, in case you need an example).

For future action (the above are too late), here's a good resource:
http://www.propublica.org/topic/regulators/

I have been watching the Star Tribunes recount tal...

2008-11-22T13:50:00.000-05:00

I have been watching the Star Tribunes recount tallies (http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html and I am very sad to see the only definitively meaningful class of recount changes vanish on Friday. The +numbers in either candidates Chg column most likely reflect unintentional undervotes for which the voter's intent was identified upon hand recount (according to Nate's posts these are likely vulnerable voters). On Wednesday and Thursday were a few counties that had double digit +numbers (mostly for Franken). Today not a single county has double digit +numbers, and many counties now have double digit - numbers (probably mostly due to frivolous/strategic ballots challenges). One county has triple digit -numbers for both candidates.

Too sad. To my eye this represents a case of power forces (lawyers and political strategists) working to disenfranchise US citizens.

Those +number in the Chg columns were good- they represented valid votes that were going to go uncounted and there in MN, the land of the free, fair, and nice, the mistakes were going to be corrected.

Alas no go- the lawyers step up to bat encouraged by a number savvy blogger we all respect), and lo and behold the vulnerable voters get disenfranchised.

Nate- I wish they had stayed in Minnesota Nice Mode rather than move into a Cold War Ballot Challenge Arms Race! Once the arms race got into full swing those +numbers disappeared. I hope the canvassing board can recover them and re-enfranchise those citizens.

So, Coleman wouldn't be the type of GOP to support...

2008-11-22T13:39:00.000-05:00

So, Coleman wouldn't be the type of GOP to support Obama's governing initiatives? Is that the conclusion for wanting Franken to win?

It would be an interesting winning streak - for the Dems - if they got MN and (by some miracle) GA.

Looking at this drawn out contest how could anyone support a direct popular vote across the country? What a nightmare that would be.

I can see a popular vote happening if:
a) Voting is uniformly unambiguous. Either it counts, or it doesn't.
b) No recounts fighting over voter intent.
c) Voter fraud, glitches, and the like are nearly impossible.

The ballot process looks like a hot mess.

wv: unpuf - I'll leave that one alone.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Coleman's Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket...

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My projection is depressingly consistent as new da...

The numbers that matter the most...now are the und...

Doesn't look like Al had a good day today. Total ...

For all you people who are having fun extrapolatin...

Natatlie, there's no reason for Franken to concede...

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote b...

I've long thought that the last "aligning/realigni...

Franken seems to be going through a rough patch. ...

Comment to Richard,Though I disagree with some of ...

jqb, I'm not quite sure why my comment on the ligh...

The republican party will be in civil war until 20...

Erratum: Should read: "Obama lost the White vote b...

Well, Charles, I think you're right about this:"Br...

As a Minnesotan, the irony of the Coleman campaign...

The other tally...Since The Popular Vote post on 1...

To "af" here and others with Spreadsheets and Silv...

Stephen Rose, not Charles. My bad. By way of apo...

back to topic,Cugel is wonderful, also Charles Koz...

I hope, despite the length of this post, that anyo...

I have been watching the Star Tribunes recount tal...

So, Coleman wouldn't be the type of GOP to support...

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