Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On Race-Based Voting

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2009-10-08T03:41:35.291-04:00

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2009-09-23T01:41:31.822-04:00

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2009-07-22T04:07:20.339-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:04:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:04:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T01:26:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T08:47:00.000-05:00

jonny--what a bunch of leftist crap. You are advo...

2008-09-22T17:21:00.000-04:00

jonny--what a bunch of leftist crap. You are advocating different rules for whites. Katrina was a disaster, first and foremost, because of an inept mayor. Blacks voted overwhemingly for Obama over Clinton.

@ katt -you're playing with semantics but your rev...

2008-09-22T11:20:00.000-04:00

@ katt -

you're playing with semantics but your reversal of my statement has no basis in fact. You'd be hard pressed to find black voters who would vote McCain if not for his race. Hillary Clinton would have had similarly uniform support in the Af/Am community had Obama not run. "George Bush doesn't care about black people" sold a lot of t-shirts and bumper stickers up here in Harlem. Katrina was a big deal. What little support Republicans had in the Af/Am community was significantly eroded over the last 8 years.

These polls are of adults, many of them elderly an...

2008-09-22T01:51:00.000-04:00

These polls are of adults, many of them elderly and retired who can spend 20 minutes or more on the phone. They do not poll people with cell phones -- a huge and growing demographic as more and more people use a cell as their only phone. Also, it does not take into account the huge number of young people jazzed about Obama and who will vote. It also doesn't take into account the many millions of new Democratic voters registered during the long primary campaign and after. What about Obama's 2.5 million web supporters?

Well, then likewise it is not racist for a white v...

2008-09-21T18:38:00.000-04:00

Well, then likewise it is not racist for a white voter to support McCain because of his race--it is certainly racist for a black voter not to support McCain because of it.

It is not necessarily racist for a black voter to ...

2008-09-21T17:34:00.000-04:00

It is not necessarily racist for a black voter to support Obama because of his race - it is certainly racist for a white voter *not* to support him because of it.

To quote The Wire's Norman Wilson, “Black folk been voting white for a long time. You come correct, we listen. It’s y’all that don’t never vote black.”

For every vote Obama loses because of race, he gai...

2008-09-21T14:02:00.000-04:00

For every vote Obama loses because of race, he gains 2. His campaign is registering TONS on new voters, and newly registered voters never get polled.

The Wright hit is coming. Very soon. Probably Monday.
http://themoderatevoice.com/at-tmv/newsweek-blogitics/22835/the-mccain-campaigns-next-negative-attack-rev-wright/

Why is 100% of Blacks voting for Obama not conside...

2008-09-21T13:49:00.000-04:00

Why is 100% of Blacks voting for Obama not considered racism, but a White voting for McCain is? In my opinion Blacks are much more racist than Whites are according to this study. Why is that OK? Do you not think that many Blacks are voting for Obama because of the color of his skin? Is that not racism? Are these people bigots?

Nate, please consider the following:1) I reiterate...

2008-09-21T13:48:00.000-04:00

Nate, please consider the following:

1) I reiterate the obvious: Most liberals are not voting for Obama BECAUSE" of his race. I admit that it may make us feel good to do so, but we were going to vote for any Democrat. The only questions here are: How many young people would not vote, and how many African Americans would not vote, were Obama not the Democratic candidate. (And I am not suggesting that these two demographics support Obama for identical reasons!)

2) Bradley Effect: WHO and WHERE is the Bradley effect purported to measure? "Lunchpail" Democrats? You mean the union/gun-owning Democrat in West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri? Is it not already clear that many of these people, who voted for Bill Clinton twice, did NOT vote for Gore or Kerry? I never heard an Obama strategist say their plan is "We win the election by winning back THESE guys."

It is a statistical FACT that Democrats have lost the white vote in EVERY election since 1964.

THE BRADLEY EFFECT WOULD SCARE ME ONLY WHEN/WHERE Obama clearly underperforms Gore or Kerry (e.g, Obama only wins Rhode Island or New York by 52-47). If there really are people out there who voted for Clinton AND Gore AND Kerry, but are not going to vote for Obama--then sadly, I can come to only one conclusion about such people. Let's hope there are only 16 of them
:-)

4) RUDY may be on to something: Why are we talking only about rednecks (let's be honest here)? Is there a potential Bradley effect among Latinos? Why assume either way?

5) And how about the erstwhile Hillary supporter, the PUMA? It seems that any real effect Palin may have on them is overstated; they are only loud, not influential. But how come no one ever accuses THEM of racism?

Many former Democrats who vote Republican really do so because of guns, gay rights or evolution. They may be wrong. (Okay, I think they're morons.) But this does not BY ITSELF make them racists!

Again, there are some of these "cultural conservatives" who will vote for a Democrat that is THEIR homeboy (e.g., Southern whites voting for Clinton) But I also know--and I do not know why this is hard--that there are whole regions of this country that, when the day comes, were never going to vote for ANY Democrat. Oh, they might stay home, but they are not voting Democratic AT THE PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL.

Note to NJ Moderate (and I realize it's been a whi...

2008-09-21T13:14:00.000-04:00

Note to NJ Moderate (and I realize it's been a while since you originally posted)-

The reason that Obama is behind here in South Carolina is not that he's African-American. It's that he's a Democrat.

The vast majority of right-thinkin' white folks here bought into Nixon's Southern strategy and have mostly continued in that pattern.

But I think that in the highly unlikely situation that the (post-convention) Republican presidential candidate were an evangelical Protestant Christian African-American who was pro-life and pro school vouchers, whites here in SC would vote Republican.

Me, I only live here, but I'm not from around here.

I am very worried by the implications of this stud...

2008-09-21T12:50:00.000-04:00

I am very worried by the implications of this study despite Nate's analysis. What brings me back is the fact that obama lost texas and ohio
in the primaries even with so much
head wind. I do feel that racism
was probably an issue there.

Indeed, James, felons are systemically disenfranch...

2008-09-21T10:45:00.000-04:00

Indeed, James, felons are systemically disenfranchised. That's a consequence of being a felon.

I can't understand why anyone would be against needing to prove you're a real, eligible person before being allowed to vote. Identity proof is a natural occurence in everyday life; why should that not be true for voting? To not do so disenfranchises all legitimate voters.

i take it that the study leaves out the structura...

2008-09-21T09:23:00.000-04:00

i take it that the study leaves out the structural disenfranchisement of many blacks by voter ID and felony laws. Andrew Hacker reminds us of this in a gloomy piece in the NYRB.

The Bradley Effect may not be in play anymore - bu...

2008-09-21T08:54:00.000-04:00

The Bradley Effect may not be in play anymore - but I do have a question: does this also account for voters who are currently not saying who they are going to vote for (so called undecided voters) where race is actually a huge factor in why they are still undecided? This means that they are not lying, but rather in a situation where they could not imagine voting for someone who supports most of Bush's policies but also are having a hard time bringing themselves to cross the threshold and vote for a black man.

And God only knows how people in this situation would break on election day. Any thoughts?

Conspicuous by its absense in that story is any di...

2008-09-21T08:24:00.000-04:00

Conspicuous by its absense in that story is any discussion of hispanic attitudes toward black candidates, or of black attitudes toward white candidates. Undoubtedly, those results would be far more polarizing.

Also, if "images" were shown to elicit response, were they showing people pictures of the Huxtables or of militants? I seriously can't imagine a picture of Obama or of any clean and articulate black person drawing such a high level of disdain. Sure, there's going to be some bigoted response, but not at those ridiculous levels.

This just seems like a setup to elicit more white guilt rather than being an accurate characterization of attitudes.

Here's my theory ... My belief is that much of it ...

2008-09-20T23:45:00.000-04:00

Here's my theory ... My belief is that much of it is now baked into (the racism that is)the polls:

I posted this before, I'll post it again ...

To be honest, I believe the Palin pick was great for us for the following reasons.

1) Energized our base even more, solidified the dems, energized earnest, accomplished women who have not been engaged since the ... Read More60s and 70s .. I know this first hand

2) Flushed the biggots out into the light, they were looking for every reason "not" to vote for Barack, they got it with the "exciting, one-of-them" Palin. I think this is terrific. It reduces the "privacy of the voting booth" disaster that may have been looming (run strong in polls, lose on election day) - eg, the bradley effect, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

3) Given 2, gives us a truer picture of where we are competitive and let's us marshall resources where there actually _are_ voters who can come our way and are not just saying that so they "don't sound racist"

Thank you, Johnny Mac.

Nate:First, the blasted signup is damned inconside...

2008-09-20T23:31:00.000-04:00

Nate:

First, the blasted signup is damned inconsiderate! (Some of us do not possess keen eyesight and the "code" is really hurtful) Also, any way to enlarge this window? Or at least copy/paste from Word?

Now, from the pov of a social scientist who interprets stats (as opposed to a statistician):

1) It is true that "expressions of prejudice" are inversely correlated with educaton level. However, as any sociologist of race relations will tell you, this is only because "lower class" people talk straight up--they are not necessarily MORE prejudiced (think Trading Places).

2) How many people will vote for Obama BECAUSE he is black? Gee, are they not already called liberals--who already vote Democratic? And are not African-Americans already the most reliable Democratic voting bloc? The real question may be, how many African Americans will vote for Obama who would not vote at all were Obama not the candidate.

3) Bradley Effect: You may have a point--to a point. What happened in the NH Primary was not an example of it (bad demographic: pollsters polled 52% women, when they were 58% of the actual turnout). But think of this when you cite Tennessee. When one votes for senator, they are voting for their representative; when one votes for president, they're voting for their LEADER. I supect that there are more than a few clowns who have a black accountant, or even a black doctor ("they're not like the 'other' ones"), but they still can not vote with an open mind or heart.

Your thoughts?

Baring some major change in how the media reports ...

2008-09-20T23:23:00.000-04:00

Baring some major change in how the media reports things, some equivalent to going back to careful 1950s journalism, this talk about bias is not going to go away or even be reduced. Especially with all these watch dogs like news busters and media matters. If you think the media is biased against liberals, spend fifteen minutes on media matters and you'll be sure it is!

The "Bradley Effect" is a misnomer. It's a euphem...

2008-09-20T23:22:00.000-04:00

The "Bradley Effect" is a misnomer. It's a euphemism for, "The pollster was unable to ferret out false answers." Every pollster has to deal with people who, for political or smartassical reasons, give them incorrect information; they have questions in the poll designed to identify those persons so their responses won't pollute the figures. People who say they'll vote for a black candidate but do not intend to do so are in that group, and if the pollster cannot identify and nullify those responses, that's a failure on the part of the pollster, not any "Bradley Effect." I presume the people who are conducting the polls know what they're doing, and the figures we're seeing reflect people's actual voting intentions.