Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Force Multiplier

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2009-10-08T06:47:36.495-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:55:02.423-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:28:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:26:00.000-05:00

"If the breakdowns from Rasmussen is correct (whic...

2008-08-08T15:26:00.000-04:00

"If the breakdowns from Rasmussen is correct (which i doubt), then the Aug. poll seems to make most sense: 52% male, 48% female decided. In July it would have been close to 70% female / 30% male decided voters."

There's no way you could inadvertently get a sample that's 70% female over a full month. Rasmussen does like 30,000 interviews a month.

The 52/48 male/female you cite for August, though, sounds like it's too male-heavy. I'm pretty sure more women vote than men (not by much, but by maybe 2-4 points).

Pssst: I think New Mexico will break for Obama as ...

2008-08-08T15:22:00.000-04:00

Pssst: I think New Mexico will break for Obama as well. He's well organized here and has had a consistent lead in the polls. Little Texas is demoralized after the Bush years and we progressives are hungry. Also Obama is killing McCain among Latinos. I think NM is probably more likely than CO, but maybe not as sealed and delivered as IA.

tomthress,If the breakdowns from Rasmussen is corr...

2008-08-08T15:17:00.000-04:00

tomthress,

If the breakdowns from Rasmussen is correct (which i doubt), then the Aug. poll seems to make most sense: 52% male, 48% female decided. In July it would have been close to 70% female / 30% male decided voters.

It’s not an accident that tickets to the Invesco F...

2008-08-08T14:49:00.000-04:00

It’s not an accident that tickets to the Invesco Field nomination acceptance speech are predicated on showing up to field offices and registering new voters.

Yes, and it's worth noting that half of those tickets (30,000) are for Obama's supporters in Colorado, where 30,000 is a huge number... about 1.5% of the state's voters! Such a massive army of volunteers officially committed to active support may very well lock up CO for Obama.

Obama's team knows the path of least resistance to 270: Kerry states + IA + CO + NM. In Iowa the hard work is already done, Colorado is now on the way... and in New Mexico perhaps VP Richardson will seal the deal? Well... maybe not, but it wouldn't surprise me. ;-)

Following up on lompe - yeah, if the male/female s...

2008-08-08T14:48:00.000-04:00

Following up on lompe - yeah, if the male/female split was the same both months, then it's mathematically impossible for Obama to gain in both sub-groups but lose ground (or even stay even) in the total.

"Then, if Rasmussen had weighted for gender this m...

2008-08-08T14:46:00.000-04:00

"Then, if Rasmussen had weighted for gender this month would be a 3-4% improvement for Obama.
Pete! Are you there?"

So, these results imply that Ras's July sample was more heavily male than its June sample, correct?

If so, that could also explain the 2% drop in Party ID for Dems (women are more likely to be Dems; men are more likely to be Reps), correct?

Moreover, this would further imply that the change in Party ID was NOT the result of people actually changing their Party ID - unless there were some Democratic women who somehow transformed into Republican men. Right?

So, question: is there any way to tell which month's gender split was more accurate - June or July?

Actually, Rasmussen claims he is weighting in term...

2008-08-08T14:45:00.000-04:00

Actually, Rasmussen claims he is weighting in terms of gender:

After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

I guess he just forgot last month...

People are less likely to listen to a stranger tel...

2008-08-08T14:41:00.000-04:00

People are less likely to listen to a stranger telling them to vote or who to vote for, and the best place for persuasion to come from is friends and family. That's why I really hope the Obama campaign will launch a commercial in my state (Colorado) announcing when the registration deadline is, tell them that they should re-register if they moved and should vote in Colorado if they go to school here or recently came here and are debating which state to vote in, and letting everyone know they should encourage their friends and family to register and vote, "no matter who you're supporting." That last line gives Independents warm feelings about the Obama campaign, but the reality is that most unregistered hidden voters support Obama so even a blanket get-out-the-vote effort helps Obama a lot.

Then, if Rasmussen had weighted for gender this mo...

2008-08-08T14:35:00.000-04:00

Then, if Rasmussen had weighted for gender this month would be a 3-4% improvement for Obama.
Pete! Are you there?

Pete-I'm going to ignore the parts of your comment...

2008-08-08T14:25:00.000-04:00

Pete-
I'm going to ignore the parts of your comment where you froth at the mouth, because I find you amusing. I have one question though:
When those things you mentioned happened, what stopped the consequences that you mention as destinted to occur the "next" time from happening last time? It's remarkably illogical, and frankly, borders on crazy, to expect that if something different if the same thing happens. Besides, BE voters would already be telling pollsters, "I'm voting for McCain, because Obama said/did X, Y, and Z."

You've also completely failed to acknowledge that most studies of the BE consider meat-space and on-on-the-phone interviews to be much more susceptible to the BE than robo-polls, because the voter cares what the interviewer may think. No one cares about what a robot thinks. Yet, even the robo-polls have moved in tandem with the human-pollster pols.

Lompe-
No doubt they're all lying to the robots on the phone.

That's strange!Obama has held his lead among women...

2008-08-08T14:15:00.000-04:00

That's strange!
Obama has held his lead among women and has improved 7% among men, but still he is down 1% since July. I guess McCain is doing better with the Independent Gender Voters this month.

He's still doing worse among men than among women; if the number of men in the sample were to increase, it would lower Obama's total, even if the men were more favorable than before.

"Obama has held his lead among women and has impro...

2008-08-08T14:14:00.000-04:00

"Obama has held his lead among women and has improved 7% among men, but still he is down 1% since July. I guess McCain is doing better with the Independent Gender Voters this month."

Clearly Obama has a lot of work to do among Undecided Gender voters.

Probably though this just means the sample has more males in it (I don't think Rasmussen weights by gender).

From Rasmussen: McCain continues to lose ground am...

2008-08-08T14:08:00.001-04:00

From Rasmussen:

McCain continues to lose ground among male voters. Obama has a slight 45% to 43% lead among men, compared to last month when McCain enjoyed a 46% to 41% margin. In May the GOP candidate had a 19-percentage point lead. Obama’s 49% to 36% lead among women voters is roughly the same as in July.

That's strange!
Obama has held his lead among women and has improved 7% among men, but still he is down 1% since July. I guess McCain is doing better with the Independent Gender Voters this month.

Orben:I was making the point that there was no Bra...

2008-08-08T14:08:00.000-04:00

Orben:
I was making the point that there was no Bradley effect in the TN race, but that it was different than what we had in CA back in the day and different than what we have today.

You who deride this Bradley effect sound like typical liberal academics who would rather suppress the truth than admit to anything politically incorrect lest it be encouraged.

For Liberals, the end always justifies the means. They are fundamentally anti-Democratic. That is perhaps the chief reason why they consistently lose.

The biggest loss to American Liberalism in our times was the Fall of the Soviet Union. Discuss . . . .

Pete-You've been saying that for weeks, and while ...

2008-08-08T14:05:00.000-04:00

Pete-
You've been saying that for weeks, and while some of your preconditions have come to pass, your consequences have not.

Discuss.

Darien-We did yesterday. The crosstabs, particula...

2008-08-08T14:02:00.000-04:00

Darien-
We did yesterday. The crosstabs, particularly the gender balance looked a little funny. Someone also mentioned the LV screen.

(Was that so hard?)

Ape agrees with my predicate (this was a good week...

2008-08-08T14:01:00.001-04:00

Ape agrees with my predicate (this was a good week for McCain he should have scored points). But he does not agree with my reasoning: a suppression of voter sentiment caused by a reluctance to identify oneself as opposed to an AA candidate. Ape thinks it’s just statistical abnormality.

I disagree.

Watch for the next time Obama does something affirmatively bad (almost like he did with lecturing us to teach our kids Spanish and how he may have done when he told that seven-year old girl yesterday, that America used to be a better place or some such strange and anti-American sounding pap) or watch for McCain to do something right (he is getting there with exacting Congress to come back to drill, shades of Harry Truman (Peggy Noonan, makes this point in today’s WSJ).

When that happens, expect McCain to bounce up big time in the Polls. He gets the double whammy of actually swaying some voters who were undecided or pro-Obama and getting some folks who refused to identify as pro-McCain out of the closet.

I think it will be interesting to observe the election from the prism of what happens to the leaned vote and whether it seems to consistently have a pro-McCain tilt, adjusted for specific circumstances.

Such an analysis may help inform our ability to predict the ultimate outcome.

"Going to the mat" is an idiom in wide use and yes...

2008-08-08T14:01:00.000-04:00

"Going to the mat" is an idiom in wide use and yes, it's from wrestling. It means to fight all the way to the bitter end. It is almost a cliche, that's how widely it's used.

"Going to the mattress" means to go hide, as in a safe house. It is in The Godfather and also used by gangs today, apparently. So these phrases have opposite meanings. It should not be easy to confuse them.

I found all that about the mattress (I'd never heard it, sounded risque to me) out by using the most amazing contraption, it's called Google. I highly recommend using it to educate yourself before calling everyone else an idiot. Otherwise you risk looking like the idiot yourself.

Ape - So-called Bradley Effect voters can tell the...

2008-08-08T13:53:00.000-04:00

Ape - So-called Bradley Effect voters can tell the truth to a robo-poll, without being judged and imparting BE error into a poll, and even Ras has shown a bit of a (within MOE) change in the race.

Stupid discussion of a phenomenon that doesn't exist. It didn't even show up in the 2006 TN Senate race and there was a fair bit of race-bating at the end.
(Call me, Pete. *wink*)

PeteKent said "How do you know the Bradley effect ...

2008-08-08T13:52:00.000-04:00

PeteKent said "How do you know the Bradley effect is gone? It is a psychological phenomenon and very much a product of its time and place.

...

If anything, this one is much more like the original 'Governor Bradley' race than the 'Senator Ford' one."

Pete,

If you claim that there was a "Bradley Effect" in the Corker-Ford TN Senate race in 2006, then you are talking out of something other than your mouth.

RCP's final polling showed an average of Corker +6, found here. The final margin was Corker +3, found here. Based on the final polling and the result, there may in fact have been a "Wilder Effect" in the Corker-Ford race, but that is speculation, since the final results probably fall within an MoE which could be imputed to the RCP average.

Aside from that, I am glad that you have accepted the obvious about this election, and acknowledge the next President of the US.