Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Georgia Senate Runoff Liveblog

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Nate:Do you want to take back your 14 point commen...

2008-12-03T04:44:00.000-05:00

Nate:

Do you want to take back your 14 point comment at 8:00?

It looks like it's going to be 14.8, not 14.

C'mon. Nate, we expect better from you!

oh please, Nate...you are sounding more like a con...

2008-12-03T02:44:00.000-05:00

oh please, Nate...you are sounding more like a concern troll than Rachel Maddow. What happened was Obama didn't campaign so as to keep his above politics bipartisan mantle, most GOP heavy hitters did, including the pit bull and grampa, and the turnout was low, with a motivated GOP base trying to stop a 60 seat Dem senate, and Chambliss got the vote of the absent libertarian. Plus Georgia is one of the few states that has turned redder recently, part of the racist rump of appalachia and the deep south. The Dems want to take a good look? Have Obama actively campaign places he wants Dems to win.

The problem here isn't that the Democrats don't kn...

2008-12-03T01:44:00.000-05:00

The problem here isn't that the Democrats don't know how to message when they're in power. The problem is they became the de facto ruling party a month ago, but currently have zero power to enact their ideas because Bush would veto it--look at CHIP.

So the Democratic Party became the de facto ruling party a month ago. The economy is in upheaval, and people want real relief. But nothing can pass yet, and all that is happening is the unpopular Bush Bailout.

It's pretty hard to develop a successful message for being in power when you haven't had one day to enact important legislation...That's why the message was off. It's also why this always happens--look to 1992, same thing happened in the same state.

Note to GA dems next time: please come up with a c...

2008-12-03T01:23:00.000-05:00

Note to GA dems next time: please come up with a candidate who actually has a pulse.

Thanks...

Repubs guaranteed always to win big in states wher...

2008-12-03T01:20:00.000-05:00

Repubs guaranteed always to win big in states where the average voter's waistline is numerically slightly larger than his/her IQ.

What democrats did wrong was think they could win ...

2008-12-03T01:16:00.000-05:00

What democrats did wrong was think they could win a runoff in this state. Martin lost his chance on Nov 4th.

Southern states designed this runoff structure in order to keep blacks from winning an election by plurality.

If there are any lessons for 2010, it's not to take any seats in the 2004 red states for granted. They are the ones most likely to constitute a backlash against Obama if the economy doesn't do any better.

Where was Obama?

2008-12-03T00:53:00.000-05:00

Where was Obama?

Clarissa, you did forget one good one: FloridaGOP....

2008-12-03T00:47:00.000-05:00

Clarissa, you did forget one good one: FloridaGOP. Always an upstanding, reasonable gentleman.

Leftwing Michael in New York

wv: diess. Iz diess a Qvestion?

The liveblog thing always sounded like fun, especi...

2008-12-03T00:43:00.000-05:00

The liveblog thing always sounded like fun, especially on school nights. Here's another one from the Minnesota side.

It's hard to knock off an incumbent, period. It's ...

2008-12-03T00:33:00.000-05:00

It's hard to knock off an incumbent, period. It's harder to knock off an incumbent of the party which is by far in the majority in that state.

Looking at where the Democrats picked up their 7 (and possibly 8) Senate seats, none of those were in states as politically tough as Georgia. The Democrats did best where one thought they would have done best; the question was where the cut-off would be, and it appears to be KT and GA.

This race wasn't even on the radar until October. So I don't see any serious failure here.

I've lived in Georgia for a loooong time, and peop...

2008-12-03T00:19:00.000-05:00

I've lived in Georgia for a loooong time, and people were really deluding themselves if they thought Martin could win this runoff. Georgia is still very red, and to think that a relatively unknown Democrat would beat an incumbent Republican, even with the big Democrat shift countrywide, was seriously deluding themselves.

WTF was Sean smoking to think this was still a liv...

2008-12-03T00:15:00.000-05:00

WTF was Sean smoking to think this was still a live race this afternoon? Even Nate's late post forecasting a 10-point loss was grossly optimistic. Looking like 14points with 99% in.

I agree with Nate. This result was in fact a major...

2008-12-03T00:12:00.000-05:00

I agree with Nate. This result was in fact a major bummer. The reason is that our D turnout slipped so much compared to the R turnout. That's kind of a regression to the long-term differential turnout pattern. We were hoping that our major ground-game, phone lists, etc. plus a widespread sense that politics matters might have ameliorated or even reversed that pattern.

So there's still definitely something we need to address.

One possibility- if some real material result (health care) can be produced in the next two years, maybe more of our folks will know that every senator counts in their own lives.

But I think the Democrats need to think carefully ...

2008-12-03T00:09:00.000-05:00

But I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010.

Dude: It's freakin' Georgia, for goodness sake. Let's not get too worked up over not taking a Senate seat from an incumbent Republican in a genuine snake-handling red state, mm-kay?

Commiserations, 538-tards. Congratulations, Sexy. ...

2008-12-03T00:08:00.000-05:00

Commiserations, 538-tards. Congratulations, Sexy.
And to President-elect Jindal, 2012!

StatlerI invoke Goodwin's Law.Regards and Good Nig...

2008-12-03T00:06:00.000-05:00

Statler

I invoke Goodwin's Law.

Regards and Good Night.

Two hours later, I'm still shocked at Mr Silver's ...

2008-12-03T00:05:00.000-05:00

Two hours later, I'm still shocked at Mr Silver's overreaction at this. It's embarrassing.

Nate,again, Jim Martin is a terrible candidate who...

2008-12-03T00:04:00.000-05:00

Nate,

again, Jim Martin is a terrible candidate who only got into a runoff b/c of Obama.

while there was national interest in this seat, there was very little local interest. this was rarely even front page stuff for the AJC.

i don't know why you're trying to infer anything from this. anybody in GA would have told you Martin had zero shot.

I have to agree with Jonathan. WTF, mate? This wa...

2008-12-02T23:58:00.000-05:00

I have to agree with Jonathan. WTF, mate? This wasn't a shift in public opinion: it was a confirmation of the results of the November. Chambliss had a clear plurality of the vote then, with Martin actually over-performing due to high Dem turnout and early voting.

This was a completely foreseeable result, and in no way a repudiation of Democrats' supposed new messaging (what new messaging is that, by the way?)

The red states really turned out not to like us ve...

2008-12-02T23:39:00.000-05:00

The red states really turned out not to like us very much in the end (Musgrove, Martin, Lunsford, Landrieu winning by way less than expected).

Oh well, 2010 is a prime pick-up year, and Franken is catching up in the recount.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Georgia Senate Runoff Liveblog

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^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

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Nate:Do you want to take back your 14 point commen...

oh please, Nate...you are sounding more like a con...

The problem here isn't that the Democrats don't kn...

Note to GA dems next time: please come up with a c...

Repubs guaranteed always to win big in states wher...

What democrats did wrong was think they could win ...

Where was Obama?

Clarissa, you did forget one good one: FloridaGOP....

The liveblog thing always sounded like fun, especi...

It's hard to knock off an incumbent, period. It's ...

I've lived in Georgia for a loooong time, and peop...

WTF was Sean smoking to think this was still a liv...

I agree with Nate. This result was in fact a major...

But I think the Democrats need to think carefully ...

Commiserations, 538-tards. Congratulations, Sexy. ...

StatlerI invoke Goodwin's Law.Regards and Good Nig...

Two hours later, I'm still shocked at Mr Silver's ...

Nate,again, Jim Martin is a terrible candidate who...

I have to agree with Jonathan. WTF, mate? This wa...

The red states really turned out not to like us ve...

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