Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/20

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-07T09:04:00.857-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-07T08:28:14.224-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:43:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:43:00.000-04:00

Obama 375!!!

2008-10-21T18:43:00.000-04:00

Obama 375!!!

How can we know the real shift in the electorate w...

2008-10-21T17:30:00.000-04:00

How can we know the real shift in the electorate when several states haven't been polled in almost a month or longer? South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Nebraska, Tennessee are all places I am curious to see current trends in. Indiana hasn't been polled in three weeks.

Nate,I love your work. It wouldn't surprise me if...

2008-10-21T15:05:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I love your work. It wouldn't surprise me if a little bit of financial meltdown fatigue has hit voters and some are moving back to the "cultural" issues that the McCain camp is trying to capitalize on with their robocalls. I'm working to change at least one undecided or McCain supporter to Obama. If just 10% of Obama supporters were able to sway one undecided voter this would be a landslide.

Thanks for your good work!

SpeciousRiches
http://speciousriches.wordpress.com/

As a 30 something professional, registered republi...

2008-10-21T10:19:00.000-04:00

As a 30 something professional, registered republican, Caucasian single mother of two, independently living in southern Connecticut; who has NEVER voted outside the GOP, words CAN NOT adequately express the passion I feel for the democratic ticket. Both Obama and Biden have impressed me tremendously with their political acumen, integrity, knowledge, judgement, morals, and values. The thought of this team running our country is a massive relief for me. I've reached the point of being physically ill with fear whenever I begin to think about the remote possibility of John McCain as POTUS. The fluid in my spinal cord literally curdles and threatens to compromise my brain stem whenever I hear or see that man speak. When I watch him scathingly flail his puppet like arms, dart his shifty reptilian tongue and beady cold hearted eyes about, I immediately associate his treachery and ugliness with the pessimistically bi-polar, power hungry Gollum character from The Lord of the Rings. Though not quite as histrionically verbose, I'm positive I am not the only individual who feels this way.
http://3rdrail.net23.net/index.php

Here's a GREAT way to support Senator Obama while ...

2008-10-21T10:04:00.000-04:00

Here's a GREAT way to support Senator Obama while he visits his grandmother.....

PLEASE start posting on at least 3 blogs, per day reminders to VOTE EARLY and

ABSENTEE VOTE. Refer them to Senator Obama's website for their states

guidelines regarding VOTE EARLY/ABSENTEE VOTE in their state. This is one of

the best ways we can support Senator Obama THIS WEEK by maintaining his momentum.

If we hit big numbers THIS WEEK it will keep him in the news in a POSITIVE WAY.

http://www.barackobama.com/voters/

Let's knocked these EARLY/ABSENTEE VOTES out the park this week.

As the song goes, let's give them something to talk about.

Thank you Erik Nilsson for your post. Not only was...

2008-10-21T02:48:00.000-04:00

Thank you Erik Nilsson for your post. Not only was it informative, but I signed up for Twitter Vote Report and learned all about Jelly.

everywhere I ask this, people just claim, well, ob...

2008-10-21T02:01:00.000-04:00

everywhere I ask this, people just claim, well, obviously we hate bush, but in reality, I think it's just become popular to bash Bush and have no idea why.

there's really nothing wrong with bush if you support the war.

and taking the wealth from better off people and giving it to poorer people IS socialism and is a disgrace.

in actuality, everyone should pay the same % income tax.

"if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said......

2008-10-21T01:57:00.000-04:00

"if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said...
there was really nothing wrong with bush"

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA HAAA haa

You lost me after that!

I just checked something using the scenario percen...

2008-10-21T01:48:00.001-04:00

I just checked something using the scenario percentiles that are on the left side of the page. If you take only those states where the computer simulations are placing the probablility of an Obama win of 90% or higher, you come to 269 EVs. If your predictions here are as good as your baseball predictions (by the way - congrats on predicting Tampa in the WS), then Obama only needs one state with a 75-89% probability of going his way.

God, where would you even start listing the comple...

2008-10-21T01:48:00.000-04:00

God, where would you even start listing the complete failure that is the Dub. Talk about a daunting task.

"are you kidding me? there was really nothing wron...

2008-10-21T01:46:00.000-04:00

"are you kidding me? there was really nothing wrong with bush and obama's a socialist!"

First off...

"Socialism" has expanded profoundly more under Bush than under any other president since FDR. Bush's socialism policies include, but aren't limited to - the No Child act, Bailing out the Banks, Faith Based Initiatives, Prescription Medicare, and State Anti-Terrorism Funding. Obama has made no promises to expand the government into any areas that we do not already have socialism tendencies. Sorry, but changing tax rates for taxpayers doesn't qualify as socialism.

Second...

George Junior has been a god awful nightmare of a president. NOBODY is defending him today. 10% of non-republican's view him favorably. I'm not gonna list all his fuckups because we all know them by heart by now.

"i can't live in a country with such a moron in of...

2008-10-21T01:44:00.001-04:00

"i can't live in a country with such a moron in office, so if osama is elected, I will just leave this world completely."

Hey, now that's not funny. No teasing. I mean it, don't make promises you don't intend to keep, it's just not cool.

No, no, I'll not surrender yet. I forestall the in...

2008-10-21T01:44:00.000-04:00

No, no, I'll not surrender yet. I forestall the inevitable with one more, one more refresh.

And still they engage.

"if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed"

I'm sure Canada and Mexico will be fine.

In the interim, I hope you are registered to vote. Congratulations. You win. I'm going to abandon common sense, common decency and common causes in service of your impenetrable logic. Vote wisely, and remember the sage words of Chicken Little. The skying is falling and I want my mommy.

Or maybe that was Jello Biafra. I get so confused these days.

I believe the trigger for the McCain rebound was l...

2008-10-21T01:42:00.001-04:00

I believe the trigger for the McCain rebound was last Monday's record rise in Wall Street that may have given some people the impression that the economy will not be in a serious crisis. This may have affected some soft/reluctant Obama support or some people on the fence. Once people are in this mindset, other small events can be perceived to reinforce it.

# if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said.....

2008-10-21T01:42:00.000-04:00

# if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said...
""
are you kidding me? there was really nothing wrong with bush and obama's a socialist!
""

Alright. If Obama is a socialist, can you explain why Bush is not?

To do this, please define socialism using a generally-accepted definition, show that this definition does not apply to Bush, and show how this definition does apply to Obama.

If you are going to throw around words, please make sure you use them appropriately.

new threads from Mr Silver...

2008-10-21T01:41:00.001-04:00

new threads from Mr Silver...

Sockpuppet detector going off on america is screwe...

2008-10-21T01:41:00.000-04:00

Sockpuppet detector going off on america is screwed.

I refuse to believe he's a person that honestly believes that crap.

I just do.

OH NO, THE SKY IS FALLING...PEOPLE MAKING OVER $25...

2008-10-21T01:40:00.001-04:00

OH NO, THE SKY IS FALLING...PEOPLE MAKING OVER $250,000 IS GOING TO GOING TO PAY 3% MORE TAXES (equivalent of the Clinton and Reagan rates). OH LORD, I'M GOING TO END MY LIFE NOW.

Grow up, kiddo. You're a loser.

# if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said.....

2008-10-21T01:40:00.000-04:00

# if McCain doesn't win, america is screwed said...
""
HOW could the nation be better off under non-conservative policies?
""

Spoken like a true believer in (18th-century) Thomas Hobbes.

As for the rest of us, moving forward is a better direction than standing still.

We all know what this "martyr" stuff means. You g...

2008-10-21T01:39:00.001-04:00

We all know what this "martyr" stuff means. You get an enema and a hood and a trip to gitmo, terrorist.

are you kidding me? there was really nothing wron...

2008-10-21T01:39:00.000-04:00

are you kidding me? there was really nothing wrong with bush and obama's a socialist!