Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Kansas

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2009-10-07T08:23:39.043-04:00

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2009-09-25T07:55:46.059-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:46:00.001-04:00

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2009-01-17T05:53:00.000-05:00

Effects of drugs on the brain1)HeroinHeroin is a h...

2008-11-19T07:28:00.000-05:00

Effects of drugs on the brain

1)Heroin
Heroin is a highly addictive opiate (like morphine). Brain cells can become dependent (highly addictive) on this drug to the extent that users need it in order to function in their daily routine. While heroin use starts out with a rush of pleasure, it leaves the use in a fog for many hours afterwards. Users soon find that their sole purpose in life is to have more of the drug that their body has become dependant on.

2)Marijuana
The parts of the brain that control emotions, memory, and judgment are affected by marijuana. Smoking it can not only weaken short-term memory, but can block information from making it into long term memory. It has also been shown to weaken problem solving ability.

3)Alcohol
Alcohol is no safer than drugs. Alcohol impairs judgment and leads to memory lapses. It can lead to blackouts. It distorts vision, shortens coordination, and in addition to the brain can damage every other organ in the body.

4)Cocaine
Cocaine, both in powder form and as crack, is an extremely addictive stimulant. An addict usually loses interest in many areas of life, including school, sports, family, and friends. Use of cocaine can lead to feelings of paranoia and anxiety. Although often used to enhance sex drive, physical effect of cocaine on the receptors in the brain reduce the ability to feel pleasure (which in turn causes the dependency on the drug).

5)Inhalants
Inhalants, such as glue, gasoline, hair spray, and paint thinner, are sniffed. The effect on the brain is almost immediate. And while some vapors leave the body quickly, others will remain for a long time. The fatty tissues protecting the nerve cells in the brain are destroyed by inhalant vapors. This slows down or even stops neural transmissions. Effects of inhalants include diminished ability to learn, remember, and solve problems.

6)Ecstasy
Extended use of this amphetamine causes difficulty differentiating reality and fantasy, and causes problems concentrating. Studies have found that ecstasy destroys certain cells in the brain. While the cells may re-connect after discontinued use of the drug, they don't re-connect normally. Like most drugs, this one impairs memory and can cause paranoia, anxiety, and confusion.

7)LSD
While some people use LSD for the sense of enhanced and vivid sensory experience, it can cause paranoia, confusion, anxiety, and panic attacks. Like Ecstasy, the user often blurs reality and fantasy, and has a distorted view of time and distance.

8)Steroids
Anabolic steroids are used to improve athletic performance and gain muscle bulk. Unfortunately, steroids cause moodiness and can permanently impair learning and memory abilities.

9)Tobacco
Tobacco is a dangerous drug, putting nicotine into your body. Nicotine affects the brain quickly, like other inhalants, producing feelings of pleasure, like cocaine, and is highly addictive, like heroin.

10)Methamphetamine
Known on the street as meth, speed, chalk, ice, crystal, and glass, methamphetamine is an addictive stimulant that strongly activates certain systems in the brain.

11)Ritalin
This drug is often prescribed to treat attention deficit disorder. It is becoming an illicit street drug as well. Drug users looking for a high will crush Ritalin into a powder and snort it like cocaine, or inject it like heroin. It then has a much more powerful effect on the body. It causes severe headaches, anxiety, paranoia, and delusions.
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sundev

kansas drug rehab

"The crowds of 100,000 people are troubling. Foota...

2008-10-20T13:36:00.000-04:00

"The crowds of 100,000 people are troubling. Footage of people screaming for Obama a la the Beatles or Elvis is not becoming for adults and shows a loss of control. Anyone who is given this much power may grow power hungry, and no person is immune to this, no matter how cool headed."

I'd like to comment on this. I am a Filipino. If you guys remember, Corazon Aquino toppled the Marcos dictatorship in 1986. It was a relatively peaceful transition of power with the Marcoses fleeing to Hawaii (thanks to Pres. Bush, the father that is). During Aquino's term, a new constitution was ratified to the satisfaction of all, having representatives from all sectors chosen to write it - church, education, farmers, businessmen, youth/students, etc. After her term ended, we had the first presidential elections after 25 years of the Marcos dictatorship. And by the way, there were not 100,000 people during the so-called People Power Revolution. There were almost a million, ten times more than the people who went to the MI rally of Obama. Bottom line, the quoted lines are not necessarily true.

hermance said... @Matthew H: I think I sort of see...

2008-10-20T02:54:00.000-04:00

hermance said...
@Matthew H: I think I sort of see what you’re saying. But, in all due respect, shut the f up. If it weren’t for crap about “flyover states,” “racist red states,” and all that, I honestly think Dems would be getting even more support this year. It’s very palpable in these states that you dismiss how much they hate being marginalized and stereotyped. (Too bad they are only now beginning to see how they’ve been totally used by the Republicans.) Most states in America pride themselves in being more interesting and complex than their demographics. There’s also a bit of that, “I can make fun of my family, but you can’t” that goes on. Unless you’re from one of those places, people generally don’t like it when you make fun of them. Let's leave it to the right wing extremists to marginalize whole swaths of the country.

Sorry you don't like it. Outside of the stats and the Sebelius is Governor, there is nothing here where I couldn't switch it to Nebraska without changing a word. Heck, lot of the wording is just wrong, saying things like "none of the statewide races occur until 2010", when a Senate seat is being contested right now.

If the article had been written by a follower of Jawhawk politics, it would be worth reading. This is more of a cut-and-paste for the Western Red states.

I live in the little blue bubble that is Lawrence,...

2008-10-20T02:28:00.000-04:00

I live in the little blue bubble that is Lawrence, Kansas. Over the weekend, I visited the parents back in my small, dying home town in the southeast corner of the state. It boasts an elderly population, most making less than 30K per year, and every yard sprouts McCain/Palin signs. Don't these people know that they're the last ones to benefit from this ticket?

In Kansas, in 2004, about 1300 Democrats participa...

2008-10-20T00:41:00.000-04:00

In Kansas, in 2004, about 1300 Democrats participated in their caucus that year. At my caucus location there were around 150 participants, and only one was under age 40. And she was 38.

In 2008 Kansas Democrats held their caucus on Super Tuesday. The weather than night was truly miserable. Across the state Democrats waited outside for up to three hours in snow, sleet, and freezing rain. At many locations hundreds of people abandoned the wait, and others never even found a parking space to join the line. In the end, 130,000 Democrats caucused, fully ten times the number four years earlier. At my caucus location, where about 1800 voters made it through the sleet, snow, and freezing rain (we had all three in the course of the evening) and fully 20% were under age 25.

Four days later on a pleasant an mild Saturday, the Republicans held their caucus. 20,000 showed up.

130,000 Democrats, and 20,000 Republicans. In Kansas. Red, Republican Kansas.

Maybe it's not completely impossible that Kansas could go blue this year.

You mentioned Obama having weak fundraising in Kan...

2008-10-19T20:31:00.000-04:00

You mentioned Obama having weak fundraising in Kansas. Indeed true. But, look at the numbers up there. Obama *still* raised more dollars than McCain. In *KANSAS*. I'm certain a count of donors puts Obama well ahead.

Of course, this is a state that went for Huckabee (by a lot), *after* John McCain had wrapped up the nomination.

Don't hold your breath on Kansas, too much more wo...

2008-10-19T19:54:00.000-04:00

Don't hold your breath on Kansas, too much more work to do here. Kinda wish Pat Roberts would spout off his mouth so we could get a big fundraiser going for Slattery (like the woman in MN). Roberts hasn't helped Kansans for years and he stalled for months on the follow-up on the 9/11 report. How people can just vote him back in is hard to believe.

What happened to W. Va. on the map??

2008-10-19T19:22:00.000-04:00

What happened to W. Va. on the map??

Just so you know, Danny and the Miracles have been...

2008-10-19T18:23:00.000-04:00

Just so you know, Danny and the Miracles have been supplanted this year by Mario (Chalmers) and the Miracles. Mario made a buzzer-beater 3-pointer, which paved the way for the NCAA championship over Memphis.

Kansas is socially and fiscally conservative. I ex...

2008-10-19T17:48:00.000-04:00

Kansas is socially and fiscally conservative. I expect McCain will hold KS. But Dem registration is way up and Rep numbers are down, so it may be closer than people think. 75 K turned out for Obama's KC rally.

Still, I am always surprised to see a state that doesn't back their own favorite son. Obama is from a small Kansas town and has roots there, and says his philosophy is based on those values. So, like I say, I am a bit curious as to why more residents don't go Obama just to be able to say, hey that's our guy ! And maybe to hope for some benefit of consideration from DC later. Gore would have won in 2000 with home state Tennessee.

Kansas also had Brownback in the race as well as Dole and Ike and Landon in earlier cycles. Quite a few prominent figures for a low population state.

Luger has already endorsed Obama. Endorsement

2008-10-19T15:29:00.000-04:00

Luger has already endorsed Obama.

Endorsement

> In fact, I would go further and > say that the p...

2008-10-19T14:52:00.000-04:00

> In fact, I would go further and
> say that the public's acceptance
> of the nationalisation proves
> that the nation's putative fear
> of "socialism" is non-existent.

Bzzzt. Too far. The majority of 'the nation' is not thinking about socialism or capitalism. They just want the trains to run on time and we know where that leads.

Both parties and both candidates have to tread carefully in such a super-charged environment. Given McCain's performance since the convention and the Republican's performance since 1994, which do you think are more likely to avoid mob rule?

> McCain eliminates all this and > gives you a tax...

2008-10-19T14:47:00.000-04:00

> McCain eliminates all this and
> gives you a tax credit of $5,000
> in its place.
>
> For all but those with the most
> Cadillac of Plans with zero
> deductibles, McCain's plan will
> cost you less and you will be
> able to shop for it freely
> nationwide and change it
> whenever you don't like it and
> you would not lose it when you
> changed or lost your job.

This is like Steve Martin's two simple steps to how to be a millionaire and never pay taxes. First step, you get a million dollars. The tax credit works - IF you have $5,000 to spend UP FRONT. Most people do not. Yes, I know it all balances out in the long-term, but the first step is a killer.

Pete, you post as a realist, but what do you think is really going to happen to that $5,000 tax credit? Maybe it's used for health care and maybe it's not. If it isn't, those people show up at the ER uninsured and we have to pay for their medical care at a significant penalty because they didn't get preventative care. The phenomenon is well-documented.

Health insurance is not car insurance. Like politics, it is all local. You need a long-term relationship with medical professionals to receive adequate care. You can't just change doctors like you change mechanics and still receive quality care. Yes, I know that *in theory* you can keep your own doctor and all that, but the reality is that competition based on price (and that's the primary consideration) drives the system towards division of the providers into "in network" and "out of network". A nation of price-shoppers trying to find the cheapest plan is not going to be healthier than what we have now.

The model further assumes that the parties involved (consumer and insurer) have relatively equal power. An individual in the proposed system is grossly overmatched and outgunned. The "free market" assumes equal player freedom and resources. This is most emphatically untrue in health care, in which the individual is seeking services that are not optional or discretionary. The instant you feel that first pang of pain in your abdomen, you are at a disadvantage and remain so permanently. Treatment of disease is not fungible. This is not shopping for goodies on the Internet.

Do you really think that insurance companies won't discriminate against pre-existing conditions? There are a zillion ways to make it harder for people to get coverage for pre-existing conditions; initiation fees, probationary periods, membership duration-based fee schedules, lower priority for new members, and on and on. No insurance company will willingly accept a new subscriber with significant liabilities. The barriers to changing plans will be substantial, as they are now. To suggest that it will be convenient to do so flies in the face of how insurance companies actually work.

Given McCain's natural predilection for minimal regulation contrasted with the amount of regulation required to overcome the insurance industry's powerful drive to shed risk, this plan is an inevitable train wreck with the consumer in the middle. The model simply doesn't converge on a solution that works for the consumer.

First, I agree with others that we shouldn't start...

2008-10-19T14:29:00.000-04:00

First, I agree with others that we shouldn't start talking cabinet and sure victories yet. It's so important not to get complacent--which is I think the biggest danger about that new $150 million number. We must remain vigilant and insist that there is still a possibility of losing.

@bamaobama: I disagree on your take of Clinton. He came in hoping to be left of center and moved aggressively without really understanding Washington's ways. Because he is a cunning political player, when he realized his mistakes might cost him the White House, he veered right of center. In the process, he crippled anyone's ability to have a serious conversation about health care for years and eviscerated welfare. He learned very well from his mistakes, but if he would have started with a more moderate approach and then moved left, I think he would have succeeded with a more progressive agenda \. He only "had" to govern to the right because he was painfully determined to have two terms in the White House. Sure, that's human nature (or at least political nature), but I think we as a nation paid some price for it.

I generally hate psycho-babble analysis of candidates and also David Brooks, but Brooks's recent column on Obama's temperament was good, I thought. From what I've been able to learn about Obama, he doesn't seem to have the personal neediness of other politicians. Though he certainly has tremendous ambition, that's not the same thing as a personal need for approval that has damaged many of our presidents. And he also just seems like a pretty decent human being and doesn't go in for the personal saga garbage that came along with both Bush and Clinton. I admit that if he becomes president and lives under that microscope for years, we might learn insights that contradict this perception. But I just wanted to point out that there are many ways that Obama seems different from the past 16 years of POTUS's. One valuable difference between him and Clinton, I think, will be his caution in approaching Washington. Hopefully, that won't result in more FISA-like decisions, but rather a long-term commitment to issues like alternative energy that he doesn't have to sell out in order to keep governing.

Geez, Hoosiers? Really? You know, that's only of...

2008-10-19T14:27:00.000-04:00

Geez, Hoosiers? Really? You know, that's only off by more than 500 miles. That's further than the distance from Boston to Washington DC. That's 2/3 of the distance from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Kansas politics is largely urban vs. rural. The major population centers tend to be Democratic - Kansas City being the big one; also Lawrence, Topeka & Wichita. Most of the rest of the state is very red.

The creationist battles are taken very seriously by both sides in the state; the University of Kansas reorganized their natural history museum, devoting an entire floor to evolutionary science and why it's important, and the voters threw out the creationist school board members at their first opportunity, though the war is far from won.

Looking at the topline poll numbers, it's sometimes easy to forget that there are millions of people living in the blue states who plan to vote for McCain, and millions in the red states who passionately support Barack Obama.

Barack Chalk Jayhawk. I'm a student at the Univers...

2008-10-19T14:24:00.000-04:00

Barack Chalk Jayhawk. I'm a student at the University of Kansas, and let me tell you: there is no McCain presence on campus, but the Obama presence is astounding. Young Dems has been registering people for months, there has been a huge push to students to register at their Lawrence addresses, and I fully expect to see this translate into down ticket support. Obama won't win Kansas but Nancy Boyda, Dennis Moore, and state legislators like Marci Francisco should have every expectation of victory.

WV = red no matter how many people (try to) vote f...

2008-10-19T14:19:00.000-04:00

WV = red no matter how many people (try to) vote for Obama.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/19/132343/11/189/635454

How many EV's will McShame win this way? Is there any realistic estimate out somewhere on this number?

Let's start discussing possible Cabinet positions ...

2008-10-19T14:13:00.000-04:00

Let's start discussing possible Cabinet positions and SCOTUS apps.

Any Democat at this time must always move to the m...

2008-10-19T14:10:00.001-04:00

Any Democat at this time must always move to the middle, as also must any Rep. If they don't, they lose. Any will govern that way too. Look at Clinton. Liberal to the core, but HAD to govern as a centrist. But this is most important not in the short run, but in apps to the scotus. The country is moving left, but this trend will take another generation to complete. But, enjoy the ride.

LOL @ Obama: "Hoodwink ya!" "Bamboozle you!"

2008-10-19T14:10:00.000-04:00

LOL @ Obama: "Hoodwink ya!" "Bamboozle you!"