Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: For Entertainment Purposes Only

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2009-10-10T03:53:38.340-04:00

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Yeah, I saw the Sean Penn - Milk thing coming. It'...

2009-02-23T00:40:44.520-05:00

Yeah, I saw the Sean Penn - Milk thing coming. It's one of those things that statistics can't cover -- there's no way Hollywood was ever going to give an Academy Award to a guy playing a professional wrestler over a guy playing a famous gay San Franciscan. Was NEVER, EVER going to happen. Sad to see, too -- Rourke's performance was clearly the better, IMO.

I have never paid much attention to the Oscars. B...

2009-02-21T16:09:40.110-05:00

I have never paid much attention to the Oscars. But I'll admit it: if Nate decided to run some numbers for next winner of the Westminster Kennel Show, or the Pillsbury Bake-Off, or even top seller of Girl Scout Cookies 2009, I'd probably go have a look. I like what Nate does.

However, my adulation of Nate's work is not unlimited. In no case could he get me to pay attention to NASCAR.

Taraji P. Henson might deserve Best Supporting Act...

2009-02-21T15:17:58.250-05:00

Taraji P. Henson might deserve Best Supporting Actress but it will probably go to Amy Adams. Why? I'm guessing some voters in the Academy might like the idea of a movie that 'takes on' the Catholic Church. And this is sad to say but some people have the idea that if Jennifer Hudson won the award recently, that "they" already got the award recently so Taraji doesn't deserve it. Sometimes irrational behavior doesn't follow a model.

w/all due respect nate, those are pretty safe choi...

2009-02-19T21:37:14.033-05:00

w/all due respect nate, those are pretty safe choices even w/o any sort of data studies, algorhythms or what-not.

ledger is a sentimental fav, mainly 'cuz he died, same for rourke, mainly 'cuz his career died, winslett has all the buzz, and slumdog millionaire just happened to be the best film by a mile.

only surprise is taraji henson as best supporting actress, but i suppose they need to give forrest gump, i mean benjamin button, a nod.

loved seeing u on countdown last night

2009-02-19T16:22:12.757-05:00

loved seeing u on countdown last night

At lunch today, I heard about the oscar prediction...

2009-02-19T15:52:00.283-05:00

At lunch today, I heard about the oscar predictions of Nate Silver on the radio! It was in the DC area on either 94.7 or 100.3 around 12:45pm. To fame and fortune good sir!

Nate: Enough with the fluff. Put your talents to...

2009-02-19T11:47:00.790-05:00

Nate: Enough with the fluff. Put your talents to work on the current status of the Franken Coleman contest.

hey nateany chance of providing the actual point e...

2009-02-19T08:37:51.619-05:00

hey nate

any chance of providing the actual point estimates for your coefficients, and some simple model diagnostics? this model is really interesting; i'd love to know the relative salience of earlier awards and box office gross in determining success.

One important research design question: you definitely sampled more films than simply those nominated, right?

Nate = modern day nostradamus.

2009-02-19T06:22:02.669-05:00

Nate = modern day nostradamus.

I just had an October flash back- I WAS so thankfu...

2009-02-19T06:03:48.952-05:00

I just had an October flash back- I WAS so thankful to have access to meaningful data analysis during that election- our MSM does not even seem to have a clear sense of how to accurately present information when it has been correctly used as data-

Yet again I am so thankful for 538- but it is going to be hard to follow this site when an important race is a toss up. It was a pleasure in the Obama McCain race. But it would have been painful in 2000 or 2004-

Ok here's an question that may be unanswerable:

If Nate's analysis were available in 2000 would we, his readers, been able to use the information and analysis he was providing to change the results of the presidential race- For example would we have been able to identify Florida as a serious tipping state in real time and focused our efforts to make sure that it went to Gore in a BIG way that night-

Nate- keep up the honest data analysis it really is a public (and global) service.

Who is Sirota anyway? I guess I could (not should) go to his website and figure it out- Nate's reaction to him reminds me of the whole John Ziegler Affair-so I am not sure following up would be useful.

Had the Academy already made its decisions and sea...

2009-02-19T06:03:14.538-05:00

Had the Academy already made its decisions and sealed all the envelopes before Nate made his predictions? The Academy must have some, if not a considerable, interest in not being highly predictable. I think they will not respond well to having Nate and his computer models spoiling there big night.

Haven't seen a single one of the contenders- Babysitters are just too expensive! I have to wait for Netflix- Do any of them require a big screen.

@ Edwin - to clarify: the "voting population" of M...

2009-02-19T03:52:22.524-05:00

@ Edwin - to clarify: the "voting population" of Minnesota vs. the "voting population" of the Academy.

@ Edwin - Fair enough, but the the "population" in...

2009-02-19T03:46:35.280-05:00

@ Edwin - Fair enough, but the the "population" in Minnesota in no way resembles the "population" of the Academy. Just something to keep in mind.

Cruz wins BSA easily. Otherwise the model is prob...

2009-02-19T03:12:04.232-05:00

Cruz wins BSA easily. Otherwise the model is probably right. Goes to show that there are not enough good variables out there to support a model across all awards under all circumstances, such as the Winslet category change. Nate probably should also add info about what various big-name writers, Ebert etc., are predicting to the model. Stay with me on this as I modeled the Franken election correctly in these comments.

You are wrong about about Best Supporting Actress ...

2009-02-19T03:10:20.814-05:00

You are wrong about about Best Supporting Actress and best Actress.
First of all, all the buzz says it is a close race between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis. And you're prediction was very weak.

The Academy also just doesn't like Kate Winslet to win. Meryl has been nominated again and again--and gosh it has been about twenty years since she won. Her performance, as always, was spotless. Some people may be confused as to why Kate is nominated for the Reader rather than Revolutionary Road. Meryl's win at the BAFTA's also gives her momentum.

My predictions are
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle

@ Jericho: Nate said on Olbermann's show that he ...

2009-02-19T02:13:59.813-05:00

@ Jericho: Nate said on Olbermann's show that he might have misdiagnosed that one. Put your money where your gut is.

@ Mikeybackwards: I agree that Milk was a much better movie than Brokeback Mountain. Numbers notwithstanding, I think it has a decent shot at Best Picture.

I'm an Ang Lee fan. However, I saw Brokeback Moun...

2009-02-19T01:49:21.609-05:00

I'm an Ang Lee fan. However, I saw Brokeback Mountain and commented after the movie that except for it being two guys, it was really just a pretty pedestrian Hollywood love story. The story arc was plodding and predictable, and really, drunken molestation leads to years of love? Not really a strong premise.

I actually thought Milk did a much better job of describing a touching gay love story, even if it was as a sidebar. And, to me at least, it looks and feels more 'organic' than Brokeback Mtn. ever did.

I suspect Nate's not comfortable with his predicti...

2009-02-19T01:29:04.868-05:00

I suspect Nate's not comfortable with his prediction for Best Supporting Actress. Since Winslet won most of the precursor awards, her absence in the vategorey combined with the lack of prior winners throws off the projection model. There's less data to use.

Jack-be-nimble said... So this blog is LGBT all th...

2009-02-19T00:57:21.313-05:00

Jack-be-nimble said...
So this blog is LGBT all the time.....way to connect with country....

What a day.....the attorney general calls Americans cowards because they don't racebait and don't engage in racial introspection.....what a crock...nobody has a sense of humor anymore....

NY Post shows a dead monkey in a cartoon and suddenly it is a metaphor for the assassination of the President
============
Actually Holder's comment, although harsh, was spot on. So many people are patting themselves on the back because they voted for a black man. That was a good first step, but we have a long way to go. His point was that we still as a society tend to self-segregate. Honestly, how many black , Asian, or LGBT people does the average American socialize with on a daily basis outside of school or work?

About the "cartoon" , my understanding is that the cartoonist was combining the current topics of the chimpanzee attack with the Economic Stimulus Plan. BALDERDASH, to put it nicely. It was a pure racist jab at Obama with a decidedly threatening image of assasination. If he really wanted to parodize, as he said, it might have been more appropriate to draw a PIG. Instead he selected an historically inflammatory image that insults black Americans. But then, what can we expect from a Murdoch publication.

I think you are wrong on at least two of those Nat...

2009-02-19T00:27:34.095-05:00

I think you are wrong on at least two of those Nate, if not more - sorry better stick to politics predicting :).

You say in your piece that Taraji has an edge in BSA because her film is nominated for best pic, yet that seems ignored in giving Rourke the upper hand to Penn. You also seem to discount Penn because he won 5 years ago, yet in 2004 Hilary Swank won, after winning only 5 years before, in the same category, and even though she was going up against 4 nominees that had never won, like Penn is this year.

This year, BActress and BSActress are too hard to predict by statistical models because all of the precursors are not as reliable given that everyone had KW in supporting for the reader and lead for revolutionary road. Taking off a half point from her for this is, as I'm sure you know, arbitrary. Finally, saying that many noms without a win creates a sympathy vote...well, just tell that to Peter O'Toole, nominated what, 8 times over the course of 45 years? Had to settle for a non-merit-based award.

Director, Pic, and Best Supporting Actor are locks as they've each won every relevant precursor. No %s are needed for those, they are no brainers.

Saw this New York Magazine article earlier this we...

2009-02-19T00:04:08.017-05:00

Saw this New York Magazine article earlier this week. The supporting actress category is clearly the misfire. No chance of Taraji Henson getting this one. The favorite is Cruz, followed closely by Viola Davis, who was a scene stealer in Doubt. My personal opinion is that Sean Penn's going to win Best Actor, despite Mickey Rourke being the favorite. Milk was a better film and Rourke has burned way too many bridges in Hollywood. Although if you ask me, Langella gave the best performance this year.

@ JurisHeh. She likes to tease. Showing off is g...

2009-02-18T23:51:47.352-05:00

@ Juris

Heh. She likes to tease. Showing off is great, and (obviously) we think Nate rocks. He reminds us of my brother, who is also a something of a math savant, but who is far less verbally and socially adept.

As for me, I'm taking those predictions and making some money in my office Oscars pool :)

@JurisYou're right. But I believe I stated a desir...

2009-02-18T23:50:10.781-05:00

@Juris

You're right. But I believe I stated a desire to purposely keep it simple, I'm in the same business as Mr Silver, just not at his level yet. One does have say in the functional form of the model. And I suppose one could even create data that says whatever one wants. But assuming one plays it straight, the percentages are coming from the stats, not Nate's desire to have so-and-so win an award.

I just wanted to tilt the conversation back towards this being an objective observation.

You missed two. Penn wins for Actor and Cruz wins ...

2009-02-18T23:47:28.821-05:00

You missed two. Penn wins for Actor and Cruz wins for Supporting Actress.