Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Fox's Pro-Choice Poison Pill?

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2009-03-12T00:02:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T00:02:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-16T23:01:00.000-05:00

But by Oct it would be the same story with "who's ...

2008-08-20T01:51:00.000-04:00

But by Oct it would be the same story with "who's in charge" and "Obama needs help" etc...

I think you might be making too much out of this. The "who's in charge" argument could actually help him with certain voters.

Dem leaning working class voters could say "I like the Dems on issues, but I'm not sure I completely trust Obama is not an extremist...but Hillary will never let him be too extreme"

"Obama needs help"...all politicians do. Its a close election and the fact that candidates pick VPs to help win elections is hardly a secret. I doubt McCain is going to make a completely non-political choice.

Obama has never lacked confidence and he could not stand the second guessing.

Aren't you contradicting yourself...She second guesses him. So what? He has the self confidence that he can shrug it off.

They would have a field day with the perceived conflicts between the two.

Like...for example...seriously, what is the major conflict.

This isn't like prochoice anti-Voodoo economics Bush joining Reagan's ticket.

Everybody talks about the conflicts. Frankly, I don't see what they are. They agree on nearly everything. It got so bad that reporters would spend 30 minutes during debates talking about the minute differences in the two health care plans which were 95% alike.

It seemed to me like they had different personalities during the primaries but that was just emphasized because they had so little to go with on policy differences.

Peter Kent:That you think it is like arguing about...

2008-08-20T01:46:00.000-04:00

Peter Kent:

That you think it is like arguing about the counting of Angels on the head of the pin merely shows you don't understand the issue. And referring to your ignorance in this area, which you have so amply demonstrated, is quite different from using the term idiocy.

The Bradley effect has a specific meaning. This meaning is generally accepted. You are using it differently. You can do or say anyhting you like, but the fact remains that your use of the term is not consistent with its generally accepted meaning. Hence my quoting teh character Humpty Dumpty from Through The Looking Glass.

From Wikipedia:
"The term Bradley effect or (less commonly) the Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of an alleged phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.

"Specifically, there were instances in which such elections saw the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls.

Researchers who studied the issue theorized that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. This theory suggested that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate."

The essence of this effect is the discrepancy between reported preference and the actual vote. There has been no actual vote; ergo, no Bradley effect (yet).

Overrated,I certainly take your point, and it's qu...

2008-08-19T23:18:00.000-04:00

Overrated,
I certainly take your point, and it's quite possible that Obama will fail to consolidate Dem support in those places. And he may lose OH. But he might not, also. Losing votes in a Dem primary to a popular, skilled politician who is associated with 8 years of prosperity is one thing. Losing to an aging, none-too-charismatic pro-NAFTA Republican is another thing. I'm not sure what his level of support in eastern OH is right now, but it is certainly possible for him to attract Clinton voters by November. He has yet to really hit hard on the economy and hasn't spent an inordinate amount of time in OH yet. As the election draws closer and some of the longer reach states (NC, MO, GA, etc.) fall out of play (presumably), he'll focus more on the ten or twelve states that realistically could swing, with special attention on OH, VA, CO, and NV.

I also think that approaching an election as a zero sum game is the wrong approach. Many people who could vote either aren't registered or don't vote. Obama is aggressively courting these people with a strong, organized ground game. If the total electorate in OH increases 5-7% and he is able to attract 75% support from the new voters, he wins. The early voting law makes this easier. The fact that the GOP does not control the state government machinery could also be important, as there were definitely voting problems and irregularities in Democratic-leaning districts. OH was pretty close in 2004, and the economy has just been getting worse.

I don't know, when added all together, I think Obama has a slightly better than even chance. I could be wrong, and I am no expert on OH politics. If I were Obama, I would definitely make a few stops in Youngstown and vicinity, as well was Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, and Cincinnati. I'm guessing that he already knows that, though.

Oh, and he could pick Clinton and ask her to spent half of her time between now and November in OH and the other half in FL. That might help him, too.

If Obama picks Clinton it will lead to a big surge...

2008-08-19T23:07:00.000-04:00

If Obama picks Clinton it will lead to a big surge at first - mayne 10 pts in the extreme. But by Oct it would be the same story with "who's in charge" and "Obama needs help" etc...Obama has never lacked confidence and he could not stand the second guessing. It would be very powerful, but only until the press moved on to another campaign narrative. They would have a field day with the perceived conflicts between the two.

uhm...i found a little error in latest update...in...

2008-08-19T23:04:00.001-04:00

uhm...i found a little error in latest update...in pennsylvania poll numbers are 46-41 for Obama and not 44-38...

and she helps in MI too.Forgot that one.

2008-08-19T23:04:00.000-04:00

and she helps in MI too.
Forgot that one.

I've come around more and more to the idea that Ob...

2008-08-19T23:01:00.000-04:00

I've come around more and more to the idea that Obama has to pick Hillary. Believe me, I despise her with all the vitriol and virulence in my body, but I think she's the guy, as it were.

She does nothing but help him in FL, OH, IN, MO, and maybe even AR, and I honestly don't think dems in WA or other places wouldn't vote for Obama just because of Hillary. Hell, she might even put WV in play, because honestly we don't know much in the way of how it's trending.

I think she helps him almost across the board in rural areas and with the working class, and maybe the only places she hurts are in CO and VA, and maybe the Dakotas and MT (but that's just speculation).

Biden is good, but I don't think he can net many more votes for Obama and Bayh is even more boring than Larry King interviewing the American Idol contestants. Kaine does nothing but accentuate Obama's inexperience.

And Axel, I don't think conservatives like Crist very much, from what I hear. I could honestly care less who he picks. But if Obama doesn't take Hillary, I think Sarah Palin is a good choice to maybe grab some of the PUMAs.

Sedi -Back from dinner. Thanks for your reply. I...

2008-08-19T22:52:00.000-04:00

Sedi -
Back from dinner. Thanks for your reply. I want you to entertain me by going to http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/map.html. These are the results of the OH 2004 election. The eastern and se side of the state tend to go mod GOP or blue. Now look at the primary results between Clinton and Obama in 2008. Do you see anything of concern? It is not just the big cities in OH that matter to Obama. It is also the blue collar dem that are moderates in the rural SE and E counties that Obama must have to counter the OH GOP surge in middle and western part of the state. I would argue BO will not win or be neutralized in those crucial blue collar counties. I would argue that OH is GOP by at least 2% this year.

Judas,You are arguing over angels dancing on the h...

2008-08-19T22:37:00.000-04:00

Judas,

You are arguing over angels dancing on the head of a pin.

And remember your own words, as you ill-tempered: "It ill behooves you to sink to personal insults (referring to someone you disagree with's "idiocy) when you are so clearly indecently exposing your oown woeful ignorance."

You are guiltuy of the very thing you accuse me of.

You are a sanctimonius and dull.

You need to liven up your act or you will turn int0 another Cugel.

I don´t think Mac picks Romney.Mitt said in the pr...

2008-08-19T22:33:00.000-04:00

I don´t think Mac picks Romney.
Mitt said in the primaries that McCain isn´t a conservative. And McCain hates Romney.

Dario,Again, hardly anything Obama could do will l...

2008-08-19T22:30:00.000-04:00

Dario,
Again, hardly anything Obama could do will lose him Washington state. I live here. WA voters don't hate Hillary enough to sit home much less vote McCain

McCain has 3 real options here: Romney, Crist and ...

2008-08-19T22:24:00.000-04:00

McCain has 3 real options here: Romney, Crist and Pawltney. The only one who does him any good is Crist.

Pawltney is a boring white guy from MN. He won re-election by one measley point. MN is not a swing state, so Pawltney will not put any states in play for McCain. Perhaps he is a brilliant campaigner, but his milquetoast approval rating in MN is not reassuring.

Crist is sexually ambiguous, which makes Evangelicals squirm, but Obama cannot make hay with that issue. He is highly popular in Florida, and that is the one state that could kill McCain if he loses it. RCP puts him up by a mere 1.5% right now, so nailing down his largest target would be well worth a VP, even an ambiguously gay one.

Romney is the worst pick available. He seems like a good idea, and McCain probably fantasizes about winning MI with him. However, his ties to MI are pretty weak outside the GOP, and Romney has two major downsides: 1) He comes across as a complete phony. His flip-flopping on every major issue, and his lies about his father marching with MLK all made us sick watch him lie through his teeth and not even very well. This phoniness will repulse any weak McCain supporters, especially independents and cross-over Dems. 2) Romney's Mormonism offends the Left for its homophobia and racism, but more importantly, weakens McCain severely among Evangelicals. With Barr running, Evangelicals can turn against McCain without having to vote for Obama, so Romney could threaten to put GA, the Carolinas and VA into Obama's column.

Crist seems the only one with a major upside, and that's nailing down Florida. Pawltney brings little to the table and Romney just drives people away.

Darren, RCP was wrong in Colorado.

2008-08-19T22:21:00.000-04:00

Darren, RCP was wrong in Colorado.

Well, maybe.She can help Obama in OH and FL but pr...

2008-08-19T22:20:00.000-04:00

Well, maybe.
She can help Obama in OH and FL but probably cost him some states like OR, MN, IA, and WA.

A lot of polls out today. Enough to push McCain 10...

2008-08-19T22:19:00.000-04:00

A lot of polls out today. Enough to push McCain 10 EV ahead over at RCP. Where's the update, Nate?

Thanks filistro.If this happens, McCain wins easil...

2008-08-19T22:16:00.000-04:00

Thanks filistro.
If this happens, McCain wins easily.

and this one is for Dario :-)

2008-08-19T21:56:00.000-04:00

and this one is for Dario :-)

Thanks loner.

2008-08-19T21:30:00.000-04:00

Thanks loner.

Dario—In the case of the McCain campaign thinking ...

2008-08-19T21:28:00.000-04:00

Dario—

In the case of the McCain campaign thinking it'll be Clinton, they're stepping all over what they did for themselves on Saturday for no good reason unless their thinking has suddenly changed regarding what Obama is going to do. They appear to be looking for a sensational counter.

In the case of Obama winning easy in November, it's just my hunch based on my take on history and on what I've seen during the past 40 years.

agreed. the debate with Biden and Rudy would be go...

2008-08-19T21:27:00.000-04:00

agreed. the debate with Biden and Rudy would be gold. One can always hope. ;-)

LAT,I think what the celebrity ads have done, if t...

2008-08-19T21:22:00.000-04:00

LAT,

I think what the celebrity ads have done, if they've truly moved the polls, is paint Obama as inexperienced. You can call Rudy a lot of things, but inexperienced isn't one of them. I think that would be the doubling down aspect -- two guys who know how to get things done, especially if Obama goes with another less experienced guy like Kaine. Then it becomes experience versus change. Plus Rudy probably can't easily be painted with the Bush brush. If it's Biden, I'd want it just to see the VP debate -- the snarkfest from both guys would be pure gold.

But you might be right. Rudy's baggage might be too much of a risk for McCain when the race is so close. I just look at guys like Pawlenty or Portman, and I have to stifle a yawn.

PeteKent:I give up. By definition there is no Bra...

2008-08-19T21:16:00.000-04:00

PeteKent:

I give up. By definition there is no Bradley effect until the election itself. What part of that don't you understand? That part that requires being able to think?

You can cite the evidence that you did as a reason to believe that a Bradley effect will occur, but it cannot possibly be evidence of an effect that as yet doesn't exist.

You are obviously wandering around in Wonderland.

"'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less'"