Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices

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2009-10-08T06:41:34.396-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:58:43.489-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:24:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:24:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:21:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T05:56:00.000-05:00

WI growing to 35 offices!The campaign for Sen. Bar...

2008-08-15T13:35:00.000-04:00

WI growing to 35 offices!

The campaign for Sen. Barack Obama in Wisconsin is pursuing a grassroots-level strategy.

"This is a bottom-up philosophy approach," said Phil Walzak, state communications director for the Obama campaign. "We are putting together a ground game, we want to talk to voters in a one-on-one way about the issues that matter most and share Sen. Obama’s message with them."

The campaign announced its "Blueprint for Victory" in Wisconsin on Wednesday. Part of the effort includes neighborhood organizing teams to put together events such as phone banks, policy forums, house meetings and voter registration.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.,with his daughter Malia Obama, 10, carries a lei that he later placed at his grandfather's gravesite at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific in Honolulu, Hawaii Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. Sen. Obama is in Hawaii for a vacation.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The campaign said it is recruiting more than 450 of these teams, which are each responsible for between ten and 15 wards. So far, nearly 1,100 people have joined 350 teams, according to the campaign.

"We have a pool of volunteers in the thousands," Walzak said. "The excitement, the enthusiasm, has been really, really impressive."

The campaign has opened 24 official offices so far, Walzak said, and plan to have 35 offices by the end of the month — more than twice the number that Sen. John Kerry’s campaign had in the state by this time of year in 2004. The campaign has also opened offices in traditionally Republican areas, such as Waukesha, in addition to places that have tended to vote Democratic in the past.

"We know this is going to be a battleground state," Walzak said. "We really worked very hard to mobilize quickly."

In Atlanta alone 8 more offices will be open soon....

2008-08-15T13:24:00.000-04:00

In Atlanta alone 8 more offices will be open soon.

Per the Howey Ind. Political Report today

"OBAMA OPENS HAMMOND OFFICE: The new Barack Obama campaign office on Indianapolis Boulevard in south Hammond is modest. It looks like an insurance office, and the plain lobby houses a television that looks older than at least one of Obama’s campaign organizers (Times of Northwest Indiana). To voters, the fanciness of the campaign offices may not matter as much as the number of them. The Obama campaign has opened 19 offices across Indiana ' including four in the region ' and plans to add another 10 or more before the Nov. 4 general elections, according to State Communications Director Jonathan Swain. The presumed Democratic presidential nominee also has made 43 stops in Indiana since January, including three during the last month, Swain said. Obama made a surprise lunchtime visit last week at the Schoop’s restaurant in Portage. Republican challenger John McCain, by comparison, has not opened a campaign office in the state and has visited twice this year, said Indiana Republican Party Communications Director Jay Kenworthy. The Indiana Republican Party is listed as McCain’s state office on the campaign’s Web site."

According to the radio news this morning, the Repu...

2008-08-11T08:37:00.000-04:00

According to the radio news this morning, the Republicans are opening three Victory Offices in NC today. The news also said the Democrats are opening several more offices today, bringing their total to 15. It wasn't clear from the news story whether they meant Democratic party offices or dedicated Obama offices.

In WA the offices are part of our Coordinated Camp...

2008-08-10T23:22:00.000-04:00

In WA the offices are part of our Coordinated Campaign and until after our Primary on Aug 19 are actually a parallel campaign for Chis Gregoire. WA has become an all mail in state this year and the ballots are out and coming in at a record pace. Our office (Thurston County, Olympia) is fielding doorbell teams on weekends and operates a 10 phone phonebank seven days a week. We are told that OFA will take the helm after the primary. The change over has been going on for a couple of weeks and should go smoothly.

The big negative aspect of the abandoned offices in other states is that they abandoned their grassroots organizations which in most cases just spontaniously disorganized. They did that to us in WA. Our Thurston Co. for Obama group was the only office in WA between mid Feburary and June 1 because we were strong enough to pay the rent and keep the lights on and keep the cheerleading going. We were the Obama Campaign in this state and might still be except for the Coordinated Campaign.

PS. If you live in WA get that ballot in the mail. We've got a govenator to re-elect a bunch of other dems as well.

PeteKent: every legit economist and analyst will t...

2008-08-10T22:19:00.000-04:00

PeteKent: every legit economist and analyst will tell you that windfall profits taxes are counterproductiove and will simply lead to less domestic oil production.

True. But I have yet to hear many legit economists say that offshore drilling will bring down oil prices. Yet McCain still says it will happen. He even implies it will happen almost immediately even though the oil won't be on the market for about 10 years.

Obama is criticized for offering a plan that consists of "going green" but not big on increasing production. If we are serious about getting off of oil, we shouldn't need more production. If we just drove cars that Europeans drive today, we could cut our oil consumption by 20%--and that's using today's technology, while not doing anything else. Surely in 10 years we could all be driving far more efficient cars, and by that time with even more technological advances we should be starting the transition to cars that don't use gas at all.

Saying no to drilling is a statement that we're going to take the problem seriously, that we can't wait 10 years to start getting off of stuff that is bad for us: bad for our foreign policy, bad for our economy, bad for our environment. That's a sound energy plan.

Or we can say we're going to put off hard decisions and drill, even though it won't have much of an effect on gas prices (because it's a global market and the added supply doesn't amount to much on that scale). It won't help consumers, won't help the environment, but will be great for oil companies.

I know which option I prefer.

Cugel: yes, the Evangelicals are a potent electora...

2008-08-10T16:12:00.000-04:00

Cugel: yes, the Evangelicals are a potent electoral force. There, I said it.

The GOP is condensing into a harder core. There used to be such a thing as a "moderate Republican", but that beast is extinct. We will surely continue to hear more scary and intense rhetoric from Republicans as the months go by. I refuse to wring my hands over it, however, because it only shows that the GOP is moving away from the centre and towards the inevitable electoral defeat that such a move entails.

The GOP put up McCain as a candidate to appeal to moderates. Now they are re-constructing him into something much further to the Right than the public once considered him to be. For whatever reason, the Republicans are counting on the public to take a sharp turn to the Right. What they base that on is a demographic that exists only in history, and a belief that there is a vast and silent sea of right-wing voters that isn't showing up in the polls and which will leap at the chance to vote this year for some mysterious reason. I contend that is a weak and illusory premise.

Typical Republican McCain arrogance. Apparently, J...

2008-08-10T15:47:00.000-04:00

Typical Republican McCain arrogance. Apparently, John McCain doesn't believe he has to fight in what he perceives as typically safe Republican states and thus decided not to open any offices there, in the vain belief that votes will naturally come home to the GOP in November.

Of course, the states that don't have offices for either candidate opened are pretty much safe states or are really small states that don't have the organization in place to open offices yet.

But in states like Montana or Indiana, you'd expect McCain to have at least 1 campaign office after recent polls show a dead heat with Obama in those states.

Unfortunately, John McCain would rather focus on comparing Obama to Paris Hilton, tire gauges, and apparently Obama's healthy lifestyle rather than run an actual election campaign.

One word: LOSER!

Todd D. I think we basically agree. I think your p...

2008-08-10T15:18:00.000-04:00

Todd D. I think we basically agree. I think your point about a generational conflict among Fundies is interesting. I don't know them well enough to know about that.

But, if McCain is currently getting at least 88% of Republicans and Bush got 94%, where are the missing Republicans? Are the 6% Fundies who are disenchanted with the party because their crackpot beliefs have been ignored (again).

Is there any reason to think that calling Obama the Anti-christ isn't going to work with those idiots? They're not exactly rational. What's to prevent them from drinking the cool-aid once again?

They keep voting Republican, and yet prayer in the schools, outlawing abortion, and turning the country into a faith-based community remain as elusive as ever.

At least the authoritarian war-mongers "the national-security Republicans" get to have their egos strokes by belligerent talk of starting ever more destructive wars (this time against Iran).

The Fundies get S.Ct. justices, but in reality nothing is ever going to outlaw abortion in America, and prayer won't be returning to the schools and the U.S. is just not going to fit back into "Father Knows Best" 50's America they long for, where all the horrible uppity Negros and Hispanics and Asians know their place and everything is a lily-white suburb with nice lawns and a white picket fences.

Yes, they are a declining demographic. And no, it can't happen quickly enough. We have about 10 years to save our planet from global warming turning the nations of the world into a holocaust from climate change induced mass starvation and genocidal wars over dwindling resources.

That's the real "end-times" the Fundies keep babbling about. And we have the power to stop it if we want to. We just have to get our heads out of our asses long enough to see and have the courage to stop listening to the oil lobbyists long enough to TAKE ACTION.

McCain and antichrist also turns up huge numbers o...

2008-08-10T15:11:00.000-04:00

McCain and antichrist also turns up huge numbers of hits because McCain is mentioned in passing in articles and comments focused on whether Obama is the Antichrist (especially because of "The One" ad.)

Obama fits far more of the accepted criteria and possible other factors than McCain does -- though McCain is lefthanded like Obama and his name means "son of Cain, the world's first murderer."

But McCain fails the most basic Antichrist test -- he is not a charismatic speaker who talks of peace. And he is not worshipped throughout the European Union (former Roman Empire) as Obama is.

I wonder if the GOP will get cable networks to air Rosemary's Baby and the Omen movies in October?

It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in...

2008-08-10T15:08:00.000-04:00

It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in CO.

It doesn't make a lot of sense. Here is my theory. The WA caucus was a real turning point in the primary. It was the saturday after Super Tuesday and was the biggest state going that day. Washington was really going to set the tone for the whole month of February.

Clinton had already secured the endorsements of most of the state's Democratic establishment (both senators, former governor, most prominent congressmen). Obama needed Gov Gregoire's endorsement. She wanted to endorse him. He was very popular here and it seemed like the right move. She decided to see if she could get something in return. She knew she was facing a difficult reelection campaign and Obama would be tempted to ignore the state. In exchange for the endorsement, Obama had to promise to keep a bunch of offices open for the fall. Obviously these offices will benefit Gregoire more than Obama.

Just a theory, but it sounds right to me.

"700,000 google search results for Obama and antic...

2008-08-10T14:55:00.000-04:00

"700,000 google search results for Obama and antichrist."

Searching the terms "McCain" and "antichrist" yields 502,000 results.

Searching the terms "McCain" and "Exxonmobile" yields 601,000 results.

Searching the terms "McCain" and "Big Oil" yields 1,450,000 results.

I like the last one as McCain is distancing himself from the "Gang of Ten" (5 GOP and 5 Democratic senators) looking for a compromise energy bill.

It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in...

2008-08-10T14:53:00.000-04:00

It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in CO.

To Todd Dougdale, perhaps Obama could have Father ...

2008-08-10T14:51:00.000-04:00

To Todd Dougdale, perhaps Obama could have Father Pfleger splash holy water on Obama and shout "The power of Christ compels you." And Bobby Jindal can be brought in as he participated in an exorcism in college.

Again, the memes conflict.He's hopelessly liberal ...

2008-08-10T14:32:00.000-04:00

Again, the memes conflict.
He's hopelessly liberal and can't even break 50% in the polls, but he's also so amazingly popular that only Satan could account for it.

He's an empty suit, yet he has a diabolical plan for worldwide dominion and the enslavement of Mankind.

He's unprepared to be Commander-in-Chief, but he's completely prepared to command the Legions of Hell.

Maybe McCain's head will start spinning around trying to juggle these contradictions. Aha!

darien,I know you posted immediately after my last...

2008-08-10T14:26:00.000-04:00

darien,

I know you posted immediately after my last post and this reply took a while, so I hope you get back to this.

A tax increase didn't cause the dollar to increase this time because the dollar gained because the European economy declined and the European central bank said the Euro was going to decline causing people to want to invest in the dollar.

The reason the dollar has been down is because investors don't want to get behind a currency that is likely to see inflation, which the Fed has been promoting in attempts to improve the economy (which on its own is short sighted because if those attempts fail then the economic downturn is far worse). But, my point on taxes is that the dollar going to have a greater value when the economy and country looks more stable. A massive spending deficit and a huge debt do not give the impression of stability, and therefore you will see investors look to other currencies. A increase in government revenue that is used to pay cut down the deficit and maybe if the deficit is eventually eliminated pay off some of our debt will only help the economy in the long run.

But, neither candidate has an economic plan that does anything when it comes to the deficit. Obama spends more than he will generate with his tax increase on those who make more than 250K (and his claims the war cost will go away won't really happen for at least two years, probably more). McCain on the other hand makes the absurd claim that we can solve the deficit by cutting taxes and eliminating pork spending. Both guys are dreaming when it comes to fiscal policy.

LOL Todd... love the holy water idea! You could ev...

2008-08-10T14:05:00.000-04:00

LOL Todd... love the holy water idea! You could even come up with a catchy accompanying slogan to help the public interpret the results.

"If the water don't sizzle, the AC's's a fizzle!"

I find it ironic that Republicans who howl over "s...

2008-08-10T14:01:00.000-04:00

I find it ironic that Republicans who howl over "smears" here seem to be relying on the belief that the Democratic candidate is the Son of Lucifer Himself to win the election.

Or is that considered "an issue" nowadays?

Perhaps Obama could have some holy water splashed on him to dispel the rumours. It would be comedic gold.

According to Time magazine online's 8/8/08 article...

2008-08-10T13:53:00.000-04:00

According to Time magazine online's 8/8/08 article "an Antichrist Obama In McCain Ad?" by Amy Sullivan, the GOP is counting on the speculation about Obama as possible Antichrist to galvanize turnout of evangelicals otherwise not enthused about McCain. As I expected, the Antichrist meme has grown since Obama's speech to 200,000 adoring Germans. "The One" ad plays off the concept.

According to Time, last week there were 700,000 google search results for Obama and antichrist. I checked last night and it is now up to 800,000 -- 100,000 more in a few days.

Problem is Barack can't make a Nixonian statement that "I am not the Antichrist" as that would reinforce the meme.

Stop watching the stupid media. Look the country a...

2008-08-10T13:46:00.001-04:00

Stop watching the stupid media. Look the country and the evolution demographics.

This year will be the last shot for the republicans.

In 2012, 2016, 2020. The minority vote will be more and more.

In 2012, the estimation is than the white vote will be only 70-71% total vote.