Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Projections are Live

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2009-10-08T08:18:53.754-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:56:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:56:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T23:04:00.000-05:00

I think it speaks to the quality of this new Senat...

2008-07-01T00:59:00.000-04:00

I think it speaks to the quality of this new Senate model that it's projection coincides exactly with the Senate index formed from multiple sources over at DCW.

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/06/senate-forecast-june-30.html

In 2000- We unseated Republican incumbent in Blue ...

2008-06-30T19:42:00.000-04:00

In 2000- We unseated Republican incumbent in Blue States in
DE(Roth-R)
MI(Abraham-R)
MN(Grams-R)
WA(Gorton-R)

In 2008 - 4 Republican Senator in Blue States are up for re-election
ME(Collins-R)
MN(Coleman-R)
NH(Sununu-R)
OR(Smith-R)

We are favored to unseat Sununu(NH). We are a slight underdog in ME,MN,and OR. Obama's coattails can help Allen(ME),Franken(MN),and Merkley(OR). just as Gore's coattails helped Stabenow(MI)and Cantwell(WA).

In 2008 5 Republican Senates are OPEN. Democrats are favored to win 3 of those Seats.
VA- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican.
NM- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican
CO- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican.

Republicans will hold on to open seats in ID and NE.

Thanks to Obams's strength among black voters in South- we can win MS-B and NC and Scandals involving Ted Stevens-AK.

Practically perfect in every way.I have only 2 wis...

2008-06-30T17:00:00.000-04:00

Practically perfect in every way.

I have only 2 wishes left:

1. Turnout post for the senate: analyze what the effect of higher turnout would be, taking into consideration probable spending patterns for the national campaign. Something like your 40/20 etc. scenario post, but updated. (personally, I always mentally add a percent or so of popular vote for Obama because I think that turnout will break the models; I want to know if that brings the 60 real democrats in the senate into the realm of reality. It looks as if it might not - the "leans GOP" states are pretty white. But maybe a good turnout analysis will show that some of the "likely GOP" could be better chances than the current "leans GOP". That would be very interesting info.)

2. Color code the EV outcome graph by popular margin. Shades of red on one side, shades of blue on the other, and the wins pop/loses election ones can be purple and/or yellow. A given EV would have several popular vote possibilities, so the colors would stripe diagonally not vertically.

Nate:I hope you factor downticket effects heavily ...

2008-06-30T16:29:00.000-04:00

Nate:

I hope you factor downticket effects heavily into your regression. Generally, the less well known a candidate, the more their eventual total depends upon the results upticket (in this case, Presidential). That's because when swing voters have less information, they're more likely to use their upticket vote as a heuristic.

Nate,Good decision on the comments display. Makes...

2008-06-30T16:28:00.000-04:00

Nate,
Good decision on the comments display. Makes much more sense, esp. since most posts are getting >20 comments these days. I was always clicking on comments and then realizing I needed to click on the post's title or on "Post a Comment" to see the whole thread. Thanks.

Alex,but even at those two breakpoints, there's no...

2008-06-30T16:22:00.000-04:00

Alex,
but even at those two breakpoints, there's no guarantee that Lieberman will choose (or be allowed) to caucus with the Dems. Especially in the Dems +0 scenario, the probability of his seat being "controlled" by the Dems seems certain to be <1 -- quite possibly <0.5.

Even if you consider Lieberman truly "independent", the current chart is basically treating a variable as if it were a constant. Choosing not to label his seat as "controlled" by the Dems isn't the same as calling it "controlled" by the GOP.

Why would acknowledging this reality preclude an "easy way to present the data"? It's fairly simple: If the Dems end up with the same # of seats, they "control" 50 seats (counting Sanders). You just move the labels on the X-axis one slot to the right. Easy, and more accurate.

Lorne,Since those are the only two breakpoints tha...

2008-06-30T15:31:00.000-04:00

Lorne,

Since those are the only two breakpoints that really matter, then we might as well count him. Otherwise you can't really come up with an easy way to present the data.

Nate,I really don't understand counting Lieberman'...

2008-06-30T15:26:00.000-04:00

Nate,
I really don't understand counting Lieberman's seat as "Democrat-controlled" in the Senate tracker. He's become a chief spokesman for the GOP nominee, will speak at the GOP convention, and has expressed physical fear of attending the Dem convention. He's the ultimate defacto and dejure DINO.

I can think of only 2 scenarios where Lieberman might caucus with the Dems next year: Dems +0 (partisan makeup identical to the current one), where he would have the same leverage as now in terms of tipping control of the Senate, or Dems +9, where his vote would make their majority filibuster-proof (of course he could change that on a vote-to-vote basis, but they might see a percentage in offering him plums to keep him onside overall).

Even under these (fairly unlikely) scenarios, referring to his seat as "controlled" by the Democrats in the 111th Congress seems iffy at best.

Nate,Great new Senate stats. I have a suggestion a...

2008-06-30T15:19:00.000-04:00

Nate,
Great new Senate stats. I have a suggestion about the current graph "Probability of Democrats controlling AT LEAST this many senate seats". Instead of this current chart, I'm thinking that it might be better and clearer to show the plot showing the "probability to control EXACTLY that number of seats". Logically, we would get a bell-shape histogram, centered more or less around the most likely result (currently roughly around 56 seats). It would be good to give an idea of what's the most likely result and how wide the distribution is.

test

2008-06-30T15:09:00.000-04:00

test

I have turned off the inline/autoloading comments ...

2008-06-30T14:27:00.000-04:00

I have turned off the inline/autoloading comments for now. They were substantially increasing loadtimes and, as people have noticed, you were only able to see the last 20 or so. You guys should let me know if you greatly miss them.

ROYG: It's not a browser problem it's a server sof...

2008-06-30T14:13:00.000-04:00

ROYG: It's not a browser problem it's a server software limitation. If you wnat to see all comments related to a given article, you need to click first on the (bold red) title of that article, which will bring the article up in a separate page including all the comments to that article.

the economist backed Kerry last time so it is not ...

2008-06-30T14:11:00.000-04:00

the economist backed Kerry last time so it is not really suprising

Random site-related technicality:I'm having a prob...

2008-06-30T14:07:00.000-04:00

Random site-related technicality:

I'm having a problem with reading comments. If there are more than 15-20 (haven't figured out the exact number), when I click the "read comments" button, the first comments get cut off. On heavily-trafficked threads, I sometimes lose more than half of them.

Is this a browser problem? I'm using Safari, but I've used FireFox and I'm not sure there's any difference. I'm noticing now that I may be able to read all the comments by clicking the "Post a Comment" link and opening up this dialogue box, but it would be nice just to be able to read them right off.

Thanks.

Given expectations, I don't think media endorsemen...

2008-06-30T14:05:00.000-04:00

Given expectations, I don't think media endorsements will mean a lot for Obama, but they could for McCain, should he somehow manage to amass the majority of them.

Today, on its website, The Economist has a cool pi...

2008-06-30T13:49:00.000-04:00

Today, on its website, The Economist has a cool picture of Obama, with an article entitled "Occuping The Center"

I have the feeling The Economist is going to endorse Obama for president....

Your 538 regression on Indiana for the presidentia...

2008-06-30T13:47:00.000-04:00

Your 538 regression on Indiana for the presidential election is weird for the 5th youngest state in the nation and also one bordering Chicago and Illinois.

I mean there will be tons of volunteers running all over Indiana.

I also think that now that with much of eastern Iowa is flooded it will be interesting to know how Obama, who enjoys more support on the eastern part of the state, fairs.

TY-In Idaho there is a January poll with Risch up ...

2008-06-30T13:44:00.000-04:00

TY-

In Idaho there is a January poll with Risch up 42-32.

Nothing else has since been reported.

I think the 82 percent chance is pretty close.

There isn't any Republican running against Pryor i...

2008-06-30T13:39:00.000-04:00

There isn't any Republican running against Pryor in Arkansas. His only opposition is Rebekah Kennedy of the Arkansas Green Party.

Yeah, I think he'll win.

Rasmussen and Gallup are in total agreement today....

2008-06-30T13:38:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen and Gallup are in total agreement today.

+156 for McCain.