Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Was Obama's 50 22-State Strategy a Mistake?

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2009-03-12T02:15:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:15:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T01:41:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T09:31:00.000-05:00

people don't seem to understand what it is that oc...

2008-09-15T16:16:00.000-04:00

people don't seem to understand what it is that occurs at an obama field office. basically if a field office is in a state that isn't close, the field office mostly performs phone calls in states where there is a close race and they perform democratic events in the community to raise awareness and recruit new volunteers. nate's argument could work when referring to advertising budgets. but downticket arguments could be made for the advertising as well.

Jim Fl--that's because electoral votes are weighte...

2008-09-15T13:29:00.000-04:00

Jim Fl--that's because electoral votes are weighted by probability.

True, Obama currently stands at Kerry+IA+NM, but the decrease in votes is because he has a decent chance of losing NM, PA, MI, more so than McCain has of losing similar states that are leaning his way like VA and FL.

So much pontification and so many wild speculation...

2008-09-15T12:07:00.000-04:00

So much pontification and so many wild speculations! Nate Silver sounds as if he is writing a post mortem on Jan 9, 2009. Ladies and gentlemen, it is September 15. The elections are about five weeks away, ahead in the future. Nate's tenses (Obama was, should have, was GA a good idea) betray his trust in Obama's skills as a competent tactician or perhaps he just forgot his sixth grade grammar exercises. It is true that Palin's entrance into the game has shaken things. True that a reorder is necessary and maybe the entire deck needs to be reshuffled. The job is not done. Sarah Palin just got back from Alaska so the campaigning just started. Virginia just ordered 200000 voter registration forms and there are millions of black people across the south who are not yet registered. So, I predict that much of the hoopla surrounding Palin's fresh presence will fizzle out especially given the fact she seems to be heading the campaign now while McCain is playing second sidekick. Obama was right: Democrats ought to play in all fifty states. Democrats are Americans too and if they do not actively play in the so called red states, their message will never be heard and local Democratic leaders will never be elected to local or state-wide offices. That is a bold mark of his leadership. Obama's presence sanitizes these septic environments where old politics thrive.

Too many Americans have such a short memory of the...

2008-09-15T12:04:00.000-04:00

Too many Americans have such a short memory of the forces of darkness in this country. These forces of darkness have taken away some of the greatest voices among the ranks of our citizens (JFK, MLK Jr., RFK, JFK Jr., John Lennon, Paul Wellstone...etc) but people forget and get sidetracked by military industrial complex diversions, including the dumbing down of America by an excess diet of pop culture. Like puppeteers they continue to operate in the shadows of our democracy, attemptin to undermine all that is good, bright and hopeful and righteous in America. Where is our mainstream media? Palin's radical right wing extremist/criminal views and mentors are truly disturbing. The McCain/Palin ticket is a threat to what remains of our way of life. At this critical juncture of American history, the forces of darkness offer Americans a mentally and physically ill old man who is a Trojan Horse for the Neocon's and a MILF with Tits, hoping that the vast majority of non thinking Americans will pull the lever for the white old man and the hot babe.

Hindsight is 20/20.He didn't see Sarah Palin comin...

2008-09-15T11:01:00.000-04:00

Hindsight is 20/20.

He didn't see Sarah Palin coming, so he spent time expanding the map into places like Montana. Before her appearance on the ticket, Montana was looking like a possible upset.

Not any more.

I don't think it was a waste of resources to mobilize on the ground in more states than the ludicrousness of the electoral college "mandates."

Let's face it, Palin shook up the race. Those of us with the time and resources now have to work harder than we already are to get Barack into the Oval Office.

8. Keep in mind that the resource allocation choic...

2008-09-15T10:58:00.000-04:00

8. Keep in mind that the resource allocation choices made by the Obama campaign aren't necessarily focused on the goal of getting him elected President. They may also be motivated by a desire to expand the party's reach in future election cycles, or to help Democrats in downballot races.

Ding ding ding...We have a winner! This point is right on. Now, it only begs the question of whether or not Obama was too confident in his ability to win without maximum resources in key states. I'm still holding out that he wasn't. He must win.

the states shaded in blue add up to 264 electoral ...

2008-09-15T10:02:00.000-04:00

the states shaded in blue add up to 264 electoral votes ....not 248.1 ..... Obama is currently leading in Colorado also . Sorry , back to the tard pit for you guys ....learn to count before posting misleading bullshit .

I hate to be a spoil sport here .....but according...

2008-09-15T09:57:00.000-04:00

I hate to be a spoil sport here .....but according to the areas shaded in blue on your map ...Obama has 264 electoral votes ....and is currently leading in Colorado

I don't know. It seems to me that the 50 State Sol...

2008-09-15T09:11:00.000-04:00

I don't know. It seems to me that the 50 State Solution is what helped him win the primary.

I think it will still pay dividends downticket, but whether the fund raising advantage it gave him outweighs the expense isn't clear yet.

Usually we save the post-mortem for after the game...

2008-09-14T22:43:00.000-04:00

Usually we save the post-mortem for after the game is played. There is way too much "Monday Morning QBing" for what is essentially the 2nd Q of tied game.

There are several things being discounted in this analysis, namely a worsening economy, and 4 pending debates. What if McCain performs as badly in the 1st debate as Bush did in 2004. Obama is trending towards parity now, and by the debate should be even or maybe even ahead. A +6 swing like happened to Kerry in 2004 puts Obama ahead 5-7 points, near landslide territory.

Beyond that, this 11-state game is what is fundamentally wrong with American politics today. It cost the Democrats 5 senate seats in 2004, and even more so, it cost Bush heavily. Yes, he eked out 2 elections, but Bush has never been the President of the US (except for 2001-2002), because he focused on winning about 25 states to get re-elected. Massive population centers like NY, CA, and IL have never embraced Bush as President, and it has hurt him over the course of his presidency.

If Obama wins the election, he will not have wasted resources trying for the South. Having the support of people in Texas and Georgia is critical to a Democratic President, even if he never wins those states, just as Bush has been handicapped by having California and the entire Northeast as his sworn enemies.

Instead of berating Obama for not sticking to the divisive and perverse 11-state strategy, you should be criticizing McCain for further poisoning the well of American politics. Even if he wins this election, it will be barely and he will be the weakest elected president in modern history.

Dean outplayed Ken Mehlman pretty badly in 2006 in...

2008-09-14T21:13:00.000-04:00

Dean outplayed Ken Mehlman pretty badly in 2006 in terms of fundraising management.

If Terry McAuliffe were in charge, George Allen, Conrad Burns and possibly Jim Talent would still be in the Senate, as would many more House members.

The rest of the nation's Democrats are learning th...

2008-09-14T20:49:00.000-04:00

The rest of the nation's Democrats are learning the hard way what we here in Vermont knew long ago: that Howard Dean is a self-enthralled idiot!

MidPointMan, above, has it right: It IS laughable...unless you were hoping to win! Yet many, including M. and EzE and Elfouegh, above, still extol this great "strategy" to bring victory in "2016" or "2024", to "carry on Dean's work." Ah, yes, Howard Dean, the brilliant strategist, will lead us to victory coinciding with the end of time! Like the owl in Thurber's Fable for Our Time.

Although the odds have slipped here, polls still show Dean's home state as the only one 99% percent likely to go for Obama. Solid!

Is there anyone else out there who'd rather, waddyacallit, WIN NOW, with a sucky 22-state tactic, rather than lose for 16 more years with the 50-state strategy of this small state egomaniac?

OTF--some good points about the demographic change...

2008-09-14T20:30:00.000-04:00

OTF--some good points about the demographic changes in the South.

While SC is an even longer shot than any of those on the Presidential level, it might also bode well for Dems in other races in the future for the same reasons.

DeMint won 53%-44% in 2004 in a very strong GOP year--8% worse than Bush did against Kerry there--and a Dem could take him if s/he had strong center-right positions and also attacked how he blamed "wimps in Congress" for deaths in Iraq and basically defended Vitter's prostitution.

Then again, he made equally over-the-top comments in the run-up to '04 (i.e. gay/unwed teachers) and got through.

Anyone want a switch to phpBB2?With it, we could c...

2008-09-14T20:20:00.000-04:00

Anyone want a switch to phpBB2?

With it, we could choose to ignore users as we pleased instead of scrolling past them and being tempted to look at them (although responses to them by non-blocked users would appear in blockquotes.)

Too many trolls on both the left AND right.

Michael--the unlikely percentages go both ways; just two weeks ago we were talking about how improbable it was that Texas was as likely to go Dem as Penn was to go GOP.

I think the model is over-sensitive near the center; the gap between 70-30 and 50-50 is assumed to be smaller than it actually is, and this plays into those sudden swings.

I'm glad that you've come round to my way of seein...

2008-09-14T19:11:00.000-04:00

I'm glad that you've come round to my way of seeing things Nate. I do recall saying that investing in Georgia was a mistake and that he (Obama) should instead focus his resources.

I agree with this advice by Diane Francis. Obama n...

2008-09-14T18:59:00.000-04:00

I agree with this advice by Diane Francis. Obama needs to start attacking NOW:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2008/09/14/hillary-supporters-18million.aspx

God. Did someone lose the conch or something?Why d...

2008-09-14T18:43:00.000-04:00

God. Did someone lose the conch or something?

Why does this place look like a bar for soccer hooligans when McCain has some good numbers?

Sheesh. It's not even halftime guys.

@ zozie 2:49 pmYes, I am with you there, I was iro...

2008-09-14T18:28:00.000-04:00

@ zozie 2:49 pm

Yes, I am with you there, I was ironic. I think I imitated the trolls too well.

maria: Good for you.I have to say I would never ha...

2008-09-14T18:02:00.000-04:00

maria: Good for you.

I have to say I would never have thought myserlf ever capable of saying this but I gained a respect for Hillary this year. watching her fight as the tactics of the Left and Press were used against and yet she kept fighting on.

I would much rather have her as President instead of the Marxist.. though McCain has surprised a lot of us and is running a very effective campaign

You're missing the big picture, which includes wom...

2008-09-14T17:49:00.000-04:00

You're missing the big picture, which includes women voters this year, thanks to our outrage and weariness over being mocked, patronized, and taken for granted by the Democratic Left.

Obama and the DNC had Hillary Clinton by the throat, but they don't have McCain and Sarah Palin by the throat. As a PUMA, I am eager to bring down not only Obama, but Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean, John Kerry, and Ted Kennedy.

The Democratic Left is disgusting. Their scorched-earth policy against centrists and women candidates who think for themselves is going to cost them, as well it should.

We don't have to roll over and take it any more. I am no longer a Democrat. I am an Independent and a PUMA. You may not respect us, but you will learn to fear our votes.

This is a great site, but sometimes the underlying...

2008-09-14T17:48:00.000-04:00

This is a great site, but sometimes the underlying model seems a bit clunky. Right now, for example, the model says that McCain's chances of winning Massachusetts (11 percent) are higher than Obama's chances of winning Montana (10 percent)...This doesn't strike me as plausible...