Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: [UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Ch...

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2009-04-16T04:17:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:21:00.000-04:00

PWA said "maybe I am missing a significant point b...

2008-11-25T19:00:00.000-05:00

PWA said "maybe I am missing a significant point but, isnt it a GOOD/GREAT thing that coleman is challenging more ballots than Frankin? "

IT'S GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!11!!!

sorry guys, couldn't resist

Efrique said "...1-alpha is not in any sense a "ce...

2008-11-25T18:59:00.000-05:00

Efrique said "...1-alpha is not in any sense a "certainty level". "
For the edification of the non-nerdly: the term he meant was "confidence" level (rather than "certainty"). If Nate claims that the actual margin of Franken votes over Coleman votes is 27 +/- 200 to "95% confidence", the "alpha" that Efrique mentions is some number less than 5%, the probability that the observations we actually find would occur if the true margin is outside Nate's range (if Franken losing by more than 173 or winning by more than 227, we would be very unlikely to see the data that we do).

maybe I am missing a significant point but, isnt i...

2008-11-25T17:09:00.000-05:00

maybe I am missing a significant point but, isnt it a GOOD/GREAT thing that coleman is challenging more ballots than Frankin? Isn't it a GOOD sign that Coleman is seeing more reason to attempt to toss out Franken votes? I would think that means that it appears to be a Franken vote but it is a little sketchy. I would also think that the canvassing boards will likely side with the intent of the voter and register these "challanged" votes as Frankens. In other words, I would thing that MOST of the Coleman challenged ballots will = Franken votes and MOST of the Franken challenged ballots will end up be Coleman votes. Therefore, the higher the number of Coleman challenges, the better for Al. Am I wrong?

Variables are dropped if not statistically signifi...

2008-11-25T16:37:00.000-05:00

Variables are dropped if not statistically significant at the 95 percent certianty level.

1-alpha is not in any sense a "certainty level".

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

2008-11-25T10:05:00.000-05:00

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected'preincts in which the election judges did an initial hand recount with no partisan observers making challenges. Of these about 160 have had subsequent recounts with challenges allowed, so on that subset one can see what (usually transient, according to all accounts) effects the challenges are having in distorting the results.

There are also over 2000 precincts on which no challenges were actually made, but they are obviously not the ones where the interesting action is, i.e. they are not even close to a random sample.

I took the 160 or so precincts for which we happen to have a very good idea of what the ultimate count will be (these are distributed throughout the state) and used them to check whether there was any effect of differential challenge rates distorting the current running count. There was, but it was small and not statistically significant. Extrapolation to the rest of the state could be slightly off because these precincts were slightly less urban than typical, but in light of the statistical errors I doubt that systematic error (of unknown sign) is important.

A detail: if the new recount was still unchallenged, I used it as the final result. If there were challenges I used min(old, new+challenge) as the count for each candidate.

@ Fred- What "model'? What "linear"? What assumption about precincts being identical? You just made that stuff up. Are you familiar with Emily Littella?/mbw

Franken has not led once during the recount which ...

2008-11-25T09:28:00.000-05:00

Franken has not led once during the recount which leads me to believe he will lose. Sorry...

I have been an observer for the recount and there were many ballots where votes were cast for McCain and then Franken and ballots where votes were cast for Obama then Coleman. This occured in two of the precints north of the cities where voters are known to never vote a straight ticket.

Why do another election when Franken won fair and ...

2008-11-25T09:00:00.000-05:00

Why do another election when Franken won fair and sqaure?

Coleman is a whinny sore loser.

I wonder if MN disenfranchises 3000 votes in their "recount." LOL. The Republican Dream.

This recount has become a joke. Coleman just wants...

2008-11-25T08:44:00.000-05:00

This recount has become a joke. Coleman just wants to make sure he is leading and can scream that the election was stolen from him.
I get the feeling that Franken will lose by less than 100 votes, I believe his challenges have more merit but this will probably end up in court.
The senate should refuse to seat either one and declare the seat vacant and force Mn. to have another election.

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you...

2008-11-25T08:01:00.000-05:00

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you've gotta read these posts... Just insane.

Early Voting in Presidential Elections Should Be Made Illegal

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2137808/posts#comment

Kind of sad, actually. Several of them make some weird claim that the Constitution sets aside one day for election day. It does no such thing. It sets aside one day for the electors in the electoral college to vote. In fact a little research would show that early on the states had a period of about a month in which to pick their electors.

Michael-Your maodel is way too simplisitc. Almost...

2008-11-25T06:46:00.000-05:00

Michael-

Your maodel is way too simplisitc. Almost laughably so. Precinct size and heavier use of voting machines matters, and different voters matter (see EVERY study everdone on this), a linear model assuming each precinct is identical is, well, kinda funny.

Love the mumbo-jumbo!The practical effect of the m...

2008-11-25T06:38:00.000-05:00

Love the mumbo-jumbo!

The practical effect of the mumbo-jumbo will be to push back on the repub insane story that Franken is "stealing" the election in the recount. This is the effect we want, namely the recount is fair and can beanalyzed.

Great work again Nate-ster!

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you...

2008-11-25T06:31:00.000-05:00

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you've gotta read these posts... Just insane.

Early Voting in Presidential Elections Should Be Made Illegal

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2137808/posts#comment

Nate, calculate the effect you have on the intrade...

2008-11-25T05:08:00.000-05:00

Nate, calculate the effect you have on the intrade prices of Franken. I imagine with little apparent lead and not much other analysis out there, that his prices would be much lower

I take some comfort in the fact that the court of ...

2008-11-25T03:45:00.000-05:00

I take some comfort in the fact that the court of last resort (correct me if I'n wrong) is the U.S.Senate.Not the current one,but the heavily Democratic one which will be seated in January 2009.

Coleman's ploys to ensure a lead immediately after the recount will carry no weight there.

@ Ohiovoter"I want my vote for a legislator to be ...

2008-11-25T03:33:00.000-05:00

@ Ohiovoter

"I want my vote for a legislator to be a vote for the kind of legislation I want, not a prize for personal merit and character."

My sentiments exactly!

Wow, Nate got some serious love from Rachel on the...

2008-11-25T03:06:00.000-05:00

Wow, Nate got some serious love from Rachel on the Maddow show tonight. Apparently, if Franken wins by 27 votes, we all (the entire U.S.) have to buy Nate a beer. Go Franken @ 27 votes!!!!!

I met Franken at a book signing. He was gracious a...

2008-11-25T02:24:00.000-05:00

I met Franken at a book signing. He was gracious and funny and patient with every single person that lined up - I was amazed. You think Norm Coleman is like that?

You think Norm Coleman gives a rats ass about troops in the field? I don't, but Al Franken left his family and his work and went out there to Iraq - several times - and did USO shows. The troops love the guy, because he walked the walk when other blowhards just talk.

The comments I read here about Franken make me retch. It's all in front of you if you care to freakin' take a look!

It's again worth pointing out to whomever is sayin...

2008-11-25T02:13:00.000-05:00

It's again worth pointing out to whomever is saying that Nate is creating theories based on little information:

What the hell else do you expect him to do on this site? Isn't that why we are here, to see these theories and pick them apart or agree with them or enhance them?

Don't hate what Nate is doing or talk about how he is going to lose 'cred' or whatever (which, clearly, the election predictions gave him MORE than enough 'cred' already). If you don't want to read about how you could extrapolate the data into countless different ways to try to determine who is going to win, don't come here. It will leave these forums more open for us who are fascinated by this stuff to talk about it.

The other tally...The California Secretary of Stat...

2008-11-25T02:00:00.000-05:00

The other tally...

The California Secretary of State added 330,000+ to the ballots cast number today. Ballots cast now stand at 13,301,163 in California. It's looking more likely every day that Dr. Michael McDonald's next day estimate of 133.3 million votes cast will end up being pretty close to correct when all is said and done.

The turnout percentage of the voting-age population is already the best since 1968 based on the latest wikipedia.org vote count.

I hope they both lose.

2008-11-25T01:15:00.000-05:00

I hope they both lose.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: [UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Ch...

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^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

PWA said "maybe I am missing a significant point b...

Efrique said "...1-alpha is not in any sense a "ce...

maybe I am missing a significant point but, isnt i...

Variables are dropped if not statistically signifi...

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

Franken has not led once during the recount which ...

Why do another election when Franken won fair and ...

This recount has become a joke. Coleman just wants...

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you...

Michael-Your maodel is way too simplisitc. Almost...

Love the mumbo-jumbo!The practical effect of the m...

I know this is just a bunch of FReeptards, but you...

Nate, calculate the effect you have on the intrade...

I take some comfort in the fact that the court of ...

@ Ohiovoter"I want my vote for a legislator to be ...

Wow, Nate got some serious love from Rachel on the...

I met Franken at a book signing. He was gracious a...

It's again worth pointing out to whomever is sayin...

The other tally...The California Secretary of Stat...

I hope they both lose.

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