Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls (PM Edition), 7/31

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2009-09-11T07:39:27.290-04:00

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2009-04-08T01:32:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:51:00.000-05:00

PeteKent,On August 1 you wrote: "The Obama campaig...

2008-08-08T12:14:00.000-04:00

PeteKent,

On August 1 you wrote:

"The Obama campaign and its surrogates (David Gergen) tried to leap up at first and suggest that the juxtaposition of the blond starlets with their politician was meant to make some smarmy sexual allusion about how nubile white women are somehow at peril in the presence of black men. The same sort of smear that Harold Ford tried to imply unsuccessfully in his losing race for the TN Senate in 2004."

Thank you for destroying any credibility you might have.

Anyone who watched the ad saw the blonde who claimed to meet Harold Ford at a Playboy party, close with the tag line "Harold, call me."

No one "tried to imply" anything. The smear was point blank.

There could be no other possible interpretation to that ad.

As the late Sen. Sam Ervin used to say, I understand the English language. It is my mother tongue."

Hey PeteKent, On August 1 you wrote: "This is why ...

2008-08-08T11:59:00.000-04:00

Hey PeteKent,

On August 1 you wrote: "This is why Obama must make his Vice Presidential pick soon, no later than Tuesday."

That would be Tuesday, August 5.

Today is Friday, August 8. Did I miss the announcement on the running mate?

Or are you going to admit you were wrong?

I will bet anything you will not write the words "I was wrong."

Nor will you question that since you were wrong about that, you just may be wrong about a whole lot of other things, too.

Here is your chance to write those exact words, and prove that I'm the one who is wrong!

Pete Kent ... You are very sure of yourself. Sure...

2008-08-02T12:46:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent ... You are very sure of yourself. Sure enough to put some money where your mouth is? I will take a bet against your Evan Bayh fantasy and will take Obama in the general.

How much? $50? $1000 $1000? Name your number.

P smithThe comments may have been forgotten, but t...

2008-08-01T12:10:00.000-04:00

P smith

The comments may have been forgotten, but they will have made their mark. Just like the "your kids need to learn Spanish" comment. It contributes to the fabric of the campaign and the cloak a candidate must wear.

McCain needs to do all he can to drive up Obama's negatives. Obama has gotten a free pass and before the Messianic fervor sweeps the country he must be shown to have feet of clay. Once the damage has been done to Obama by the late August conventions McCain will have plenty of time to accentuate the positive.

McCain is doing a good right now. The independents will be glad for it when they see Obama revealed for who is and dodge a bullet in not voting for him.

Obama will move very quickly on the VEEP. He is in trouble right now and unless he does something he is in danger of reaching a tipping point.

Wrong on the WAR, wrong on ENERGY, soon to be wrong on the ECONOMY.

What's a brother to do?

My point Pete is that you adopt a very blinkered s...

2008-08-01T11:59:00.000-04:00

My point Pete is that you adopt a very blinkered short term approach to your comments. This comment about Bayh being picked this week is another example of it. While I have myself said that Bayh is the perfect candidate for Obama, he is not going to move an announcement forward because the campaign has gone negative particularly in circumstances where there is no evidence that McCain has benefitted from it.

My prediction is that he will announce his VP after the Olympics in the week before the DNC. Let's see who is right shall we?

Your analysis of the recent spat is also hopelessly spun through rose tinted glasses. That is why you form bogus conclusions about Obama's comments on learning Spanish or the impact of the Britney ad.

By next week, the Britney issue and the race card spat will be forgotten. The net effect will be that Democrats and Republicans will be more energised and Independents will be more turned off by the continual tit for tat. That is why I see it as a mistake for McCain to tarnish his own straight shooting image by engaging in Rovian smear campaigns and lies when he needs to win Independents in order to overturn the Democrats 8% edge in registration.

McCain cannot accuse Obama of choosing basketball over visiting injured troops and wanting to lose the war and then complain when the MSM call him out for engaging in gutter politics. He also can't complain when his poll ratings go South because he has morphed into just another Republican. We'll see who is right in the long term that's for sure but I would much rather be in Obama's shoes right now.

P Smith:I have not said that any of those things w...

2008-08-01T11:22:00.000-04:00

P Smith:

I have not said that any of those things would "destroy" Obama only damage him in a collective sense. I have been fairly accurate in my assessment of the polls and correctly predicted McCain's rise in the polls during the flip flopper debacle and see this as having been a bad week in the polls for him because he has allowed McCain to control the debate and to a degree make Obama look out of touch and foolish.

Obama is a smart man and his handlers are very shrewd. I fully expect him to do something dramatic to try and change the vector he is on. He cannot allow himself to limp into the weekend, victim to John McCain’s attacks. Bayh may be the answer. If he had had the big week on the economy that he had hoped for, he could have waited for Tuesday. Just enough time to introduce Bayh and then push him off the stage and let the Olympics dominate the cycle while he fines tunes the Rally at Denver.

Despite a trip of supposed historic significance that saw him rise to a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracker Obama has shrunk back down into a virtual tie with a man whom some were comparing in early June to being like a blob of cottage cheese stuck in lime Jell-O.

I say McCain has done a lot with his candidacy and has benefited from the issues, particularly drilling and the war, while continuing to focus on working class voters and their concerns on a very grass roots level.

Obama's messianic vision is off putting to all but the few true believers out there who, having been cowered into silence by Ronald Reagan and disappointed by Bill Clinton, see him as vindication of their left wing ideology. Unfortunately for them, the people still reject liberalism and will ultimately reject Obama as well, if he can be exposed for what he is.

McCain this week has told the people not to believe what they see -- its all glitz and glamour -- Obama will not be allowed to self-define himself ab initio. He has a history and a record and it must be dealt with. That it is a record of left wing affinities and fringe associations with kook anti-American Reverends, unrepentant terrorist bombers, Marxist Professors and PLO officials cannot be dismissed or discounted.

The stakes are too high and too many of us will make sure of it!

PKentWhen Obama does not pick his VP this week or ...

2008-08-01T10:20:00.000-04:00

PKent

When Obama does not pick his VP this week or next week, will you come on this site and admit to all and sundry that you are an imbecile?

Every week we have the same GOP spin from you predicting the death of Obama based on whatever the froth issue of the day is. You have claimed that his comment that kids should learn another language would sink him, you were wrong. You have claimed that offshore drilling will sink him, you were wrong. You have claimed that his overseas trip would cause a collapse, you were wrong. Today, you claim that his response to a ludicrous McCain ad will destroy Obama. You have also made various baseless claims about movement of the polls, all of which have proven to be wrong.

Throughout the entire period of your laughable punditry, Obama has continued to lead McCain by somewhere between 2 and 6 points.

Have you contemplated the possibility that outside the world of self masturbatory conservative blog-dom, ordinary voters might have different priorities to you? Just a thought.

Please continue to post here, if only to serve as a reminder to any independent voters who visit the site of what is so wrong about the Republican party and the people who advocate lies and spin on its behalf.

I'm not sure things are as bad as you say for Obam...

2008-08-01T10:00:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure things are as bad as you say for Obama. The latest polls gave him leads in states he needs to win, although not large ones.

However, it doesn't surprise me that some elements of the American media are being more hostile to him given their dislike of anything to do with Europe.

Further erosion in the Ras tracker.As I sugggested...

2008-08-01T09:51:00.000-04:00

Further erosion in the Ras tracker.

As I sugggested in the Brittany Spears tread, which I repeat below in case you missed it, Obama has had a bad week and it is getting worse.

The news cyle has been wholly negative since he got back from Europe and now with Obama's laste gaffe on race it will continue to turn against him.

Obama faces a savage set of recaps on the weekend news shows. he may be forced into picking Evan Bayh as early as today to quell the bad press. I had suspected he would wait until Tuesday, but he probalby cannot afford to do so.

What follows is a repeat of my summary of the week as posted in the Brittany thread . . .

Obama Overplays His Hand

In a stunning miscalculation Barrack Obama overplayed his hand over the past few days, suggesting that both Bush and McCain were directly using race against him. This was a drumbeat that he started in late June saying that his opponents would use his blackness against him in the race. When Obama went so far as to accuse McCain and Bush of this in MO the other day, he went too far, and the McCain campaign along with the candidate leapt on it, took umbrage and basically hoisted Obama on his own petard.

The Obama campaign was left scrambling and backpedaling yesterday as they could not come up with a single instance where either the Bush or McCain camps could be shown to have themselves played the “race card”. Instead they were left whining about McCain using “old politics” and going “negative”.

Well, Duh!

As I said yesterday, McCain is a smart military man and he knows that the first objective is to neutralize and marginalize your enemy. Hence the Brittany Spears/Paris Hilton ad. The Obama campaign and its surrogates (David Gergen) tried to leap up at first and suggest that the juxtaposition of the blond starlets with their politician was meant to make some smarmy sexual allusion about how nubile white women are somehow at peril in the presence of black men. The same sort of smear that Harold Ford tried to imply unsuccessfully in his losing race for the TN Senate in 2004. That that ad is still topic number one and continues to paint Obama as an air-headed celebrity full of fluff and very photogenic but wrong on substance (bad on energy and taxes) is a problem for him. The ad is succeeding and Obama is whining.

Obama has not regained his “land legs” since he came back from the Rainbow Tour. The post mortem on the trip was that it did not do him any short term good. This week when he was supposed to have returned to focus on domestic issues. Instead it left him branded as presumptuous and arrogant, with a photo op with Nancy Pelosi and his advising Americans to fill up their tires as a way to solve the energy crisis. Let’s not bother with the vast untapped reserves of oil we have here in the US.

Obama is next confronting the Olympics. The two weeks commencing a week from today will be a period of great nationalism and American pride here at home. His challenge will be twofold: One, compete with the mega show in China for publicity (publicity is the oxygen on which his campaign breathes) and Two, distance himself from the suspicion that he wants to be not just President of the United States, but of the World. As Americans get into the mode of rooting for the home team and wishing ill on the Germans and the French among others, their subtle consciousness will be altered and it will not help Obama.

This is why Obama must make his Vice Presidential pick soon, no later than Tuesday. He will need to grab the news cycle soon. Indeed with the week having gone so badly for him he does not want the weekend cycle to be dominated by his missteps of the past week and his leaky, arrogant candidacy.

I have suggested before, to the consternation of many here, that Obama takes a great risk in injecting race into the campaign. As we learned with the New Yorker Cover story, crying foul over such things does him little good, especially where the point is either satire (as with the New Yorker) or non-existent (as with these charges against the McCain campaign). Voters are not fearful of Obama because he is Black, what they fear is that he and his administration will filter everything through a prism of race and that every policy debate will somehow get dragged into a racial scuffle that this country can ill afford at this time.

As far as these latest polls go, they virtually all show movement towards McCain as compared with comparable survey (with the exception of KY). Things are moving McCain’s way and towards the Republicans right now. This is because of the success in the War and their having taken the high ground on Drilling. Now that Obama has injected race into the campaign, it will be curious to see if he gets a sympathy bounce or if his complaining shines a further spotlight on his deficiencies, leading to further erosion of his standing.

This is why he will pick Evan Bayh any minute now and change the subject.

Well, it's based on real polling figures which sho...

2008-08-01T09:19:00.000-04:00

Well, it's based on real polling figures which show 17 out of the 19 Kerry states being fairly safe for Obama in addition to NM and IA.

That's the statement of a real optimist (I don't d...

2008-08-01T08:12:00.000-04:00

That's the statement of a real optimist (I don't disagree with it, BTW) or perhaps just wishful thinking, as in that old saying: "Gee, if I had some ham I could have ham & eggs. If I had some eggs."

The great thing for Obama is that it looks like tw...

2008-08-01T08:01:00.000-04:00

The great thing for Obama is that it looks like two Bush states from 2004, Iowa and New Mexico, are almost certainly in the bag for him. Therefore, if he holds all the Kerry states plus those two he's on 264 EVs already, just 6 away from the target. The only problem for him is to make sure he holds on to Michigan and New Hampshire, which are both looking fairly close. If he can do that, he just needs those 6 EVs from a huge range of states that have already been mentioned.

I’m obsessed. I’m spending hours every day — more ...

2008-08-01T00:49:00.000-04:00

I’m obsessed. I’m spending hours every day — more time than I care to acknowledge — studying this site, Intrade, IEM, Real Clear Politics, Electoral-Vote.com.

I have made a spread sheet so I can assemble in one window and compare the odds and the spreads from the various sources. This site has the best, most insightful analysis of the numbers.

Why am I doing this? Why do I care so much? I’ve always voted Democratic; and I want to see him win: but I wouldn’t expect Obama, even with a Dem majority in the House and Senate, to solve this country’s problems, or save the planet.

Obama is of course a politician. To me that means, profoundly different from me, from you, from anyone I would ever expect to know or care about, or exchange feelings of empathy with. Anyone who would want to run for high political office in this country, in this era in history — and even more, anyone who has a chance to win — must be, in some non-trivial aspects of his make-up, nuts.

I haven’t made any campaign contributions to a candidate this year. I have a few times in my life been a volunteer in a local election, but never worked for a statewide or a national candidate.

Once in a while, studying the odds on Intrade, I think, these odds are imbalanced, the volume must be thin. Maybe I could place some bets, make money by arbitrage. But that would take time and effort.

I care so much, I spend so much time, I’m so obsessed: because I’m partisan.

A friend of mine, who coaches high school sports, explained to me once — I’m sure the idea wasn’t original with her — to be a successful athlete, you must hate to loose: but to be a great athlete, you must absolutely be unable to stand to see the other guy win.

I want the guy I’m rooting for to win. But I’m obsessed because I want the other side to loose.

Nate,The Rasmussen Texas and Arizona polls both u...

2008-08-01T00:37:00.000-04:00

Nate,

The Rasmussen Texas and Arizona polls both used Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen, which like Gallup's includes virtually requires having voted in a past election to be counted. Gallup's use of the likely voter screen clearly undercounted voters who may be new to the process but who are still very likely going to vote this particular cycle. This effect is likely much larger in Texas due to the large number of newly engaged Hispanic voters who did not vote last cycle but who came out in huge numbers in the Democratic primary and are now overwhelmingly supporting Obama.

How do you correct for that and get a real sense of what this election in Texas is likely to look like?

To several people discussing Texas:No Obama doesn'...

2008-08-01T00:17:00.000-04:00

To several people discussing Texas:

No Obama doesn't have a serious chance in Texas and no Texas is not turning into a swing state in the future. There are few dramatic changes like this to swing state / solid state status. If in fact there is a huge Democrat landslide that makes even Texas a swing state, the Republicans will be so up s*** creek that they'll have to fall back, regroup, and the next election they'll position themselves to be competitive again. (i.e. if that means espousing some traditionally liberal policies they'll do it, to be in a better position to win the election.)

anyway, no, i refuse to believe that Texas will be 2012's Ohio.

SouthernOntarioan:
It probably will come down to the wire, but as it stands Obama has an apparent lock on more states than McCain. If they're in a tug-of-war and neither has pulled the other over the line yet, Obama's about 60 EV's closer than McCain in what is securely his. Thus there's a lot of defense McCain has no choice but to do, and there's several targeted strategies for offense for Obama. As such, I think Andy's comment that McCain's job is looking like a tough slog to a razor thin victory at best is fairly apt.

I've been saying for weeks that he has a chance in...

2008-07-31T23:27:00.000-04:00

I've been saying for weeks that he has a chance in Texas... with increased voter turnout and registration from latinos, along with sending Hillary Clinton down a few times and doing some big time advertising, I think it has a chance to tighten even more.

I've sited that article a couple weeks ago (on RCP) that shows TX trending blue. Even if he can pull within five there this year and make McCain play defense there (a very expensive state), he can lay the groundwork for 2012 to make it a swing state.

Games,Don't you think Democrats are generally more...

2008-07-31T23:04:00.000-04:00

Games,
Don't you think Democrats are generally more enthusiastic than Republicans? I meant no harm by this comment, simply that Democrats usually like to have their voices heard. Take the primaries as an example. In recent years, the Democratic primaries SLAUGHTER the Republicans in turnout, yet the general election is generally close. This to me suggests that there is a greater number of Republicans that skip out on the primaries yet vote in the general.

Andy:Neither is Obama. This election will come do...

2008-07-31T22:52:00.000-04:00

Andy:

Neither is Obama. This election will come down to the wire one way or another.

To win Obama needs to take/hold Colorado, Virgina, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, etc.. all of which are predicted to be within a few percentage points at this point.

Good scrap goin' on twixt Quinny and Rasmoosey. I ...

2008-07-31T22:41:00.000-04:00

Good scrap goin' on twixt Quinny and Rasmoosey. I thunk Rasmoosey wins today on its combined 'lead' total. Quinny needs to increase its margins for Obam-bam. Go Quinny!

Is the tightening the result of the impact of the ...

2008-07-31T22:15:00.000-04:00

Is the tightening the result of the impact of the press (print and spoken) continually insisting that the race is close?

2 polls that I am very intriuged to see, Indiana a...

2008-07-31T21:47:00.000-04:00

2 polls that I am very intriuged to see, Indiana and West Virginia. Those two polls will be revealing alot.

MonsieurKovacs:"If the election WERE held tomorrow...

2008-07-31T21:46:00.000-04:00

MonsieurKovacs:

"If the election WERE held tomorrow" is correct: the "were" is the subjunctive expressing condition contrary to fact. A dying grammatical usage, but a fine and proper one.