Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Right Track

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2009-10-08T08:24:28.627-04:00

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2009-09-10T03:03:18.255-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:03:00.000-05:00

Mark,Well, I guess you will be voting for Obama-Cl...

2008-06-29T01:02:00.000-04:00

Mark,

Well, I guess you will be voting for Obama-Clinton over McCain if that ends up being the ticket then if it is "Obama or nothing."

Again, I asked earlier but got no response. Can anyone point me to polls showing an Obama-Clinton ticket polling worse among independents than just Obama by himself? Or maybe does Obama-Clinton do worse among swing voter groups like white women, Catholics, etc.? I can't find any polls on this, but was hoping someone could show me.

Justin,I will never vote for Bob Barr. I don't lik...

2008-06-28T02:32:00.000-04:00

Justin,

I will never vote for Bob Barr. I don't like him at all.

It's Obama or nothing.

Paul Bradford, while it might look good in the you...

2008-06-28T00:36:00.000-04:00

Paul Bradford, while it might look good in the youtube video, I think Obama needs to do more than have a meeting with a group of foreign policy advisors. This was the same shtick we got from G.W. Bush in 2000 ("I'll surround myself with good advisors.").

It's a start, but he needs to do much more.

Presenting himself as the agent of change when we'...

2008-06-27T23:03:00.000-04:00

Presenting himself as the agent of change when we're on the wrong track is part of what Obama needs to do. The other thing he needs to do is to defend himself against the charge that he's too inexperienced to keep the nation safe. I believe his number one priority should be to pull together a national security team full of experience and credibility and to take the experience question off the table. Then he can talk about the fact that he can put us on the right track.

Been there, done that

The Republicans are more like a sleeping kitten. ...

2008-06-27T21:20:00.000-04:00

The Republicans are more like a sleeping kitten. Even if they were energized and unified, there still aren't enough of them.

To counsellorben and others, I keep hearing Clinto...

2008-06-27T21:19:00.000-04:00

To counsellorben and others, I keep hearing Clinton will energize and turn out Republicans. Yet I read here and in other polls that there aren't that many Republicans.

Does anyone have any hard data on Clinton as a drag or a help on the ticket? My hunch is the unity of the Dems drowns the unity of the Republicans. When the GOP president's approval is at 27% and economic growth is only 1%, there is no sleeping tiger.

I think a case for or against Clinton hangs on independent voters. But I've seen little data on this.

Justin,I have to disagree that this was a ticket p...

2008-06-27T20:01:00.000-04:00

Justin,

I have to disagree that this was a ticket preview. While picking Hillary would help the party healing process, it would do much more to energize the right wing base. Remember their hatred of anything Clinton.

Picking Hillary would give the right wing far more enthusiasm for McCain.

Personally, I prefer to do anything to avoid enegizing the Republic party (if they get to misquote our party's name, then we should return the favor).

"In waking a tiger, use a long stick." - Mao Zedong

My opinion, let the tiger sleep.

Also, Nate, another shout-out. The most recent adjustment again makes your model in close agreement with the market on intrade.com.

Wow. Someone got pissed off in the last decade. Ag...

2008-06-27T19:55:00.000-04:00

Wow. Someone got pissed off in the last decade. Agree that the Obama campaign could do with smarter arguments - any time you mention "Bush" you're automatically saying something dumb - and that's the last trap Obama (President of Harvard Law Review/civl rights lawyer/teacher of constitutional law/ um...community organizer?!) should be falling into... unless he's playing for the 'American Idiot' vote.

Justin, the need to appeal to the middle of Americ...

2008-06-27T18:59:00.000-04:00

Justin, the need to appeal to the middle of America is precisely the reason Obama should not choose Clinton as his VP (even apart for governing considerations). She does not poll well with independents.

I also wouldn't read too much into today's rally. She came out fully behind Obama as she had promised to do and as any good Democrat would do. She's no more and no less likely to be VP after today than she was before today.

Mark: If you are a Ron Paul person, my guess is yo...

2008-06-27T18:06:00.000-04:00

Mark: If you are a Ron Paul person, my guess is you won't be voting for Obama by the time November rolls around. For him to have to win by appealing to the middle of America, he'll piss you off way too many times. Bob Barr is there for you though.

Well, depending on when Obama decides to announce ...

2008-06-27T18:01:00.000-04:00

Well, depending on when Obama decides to announce his pick of running mate, white working-class men could have a bit of time to get to know a more obscure (to them) pick and cozy up to the idea a little.

I don't see Sebelius or McCaskill as "affirmative action" choices. I think they'd be perfectly good choices whether Obama had run against Hillary Clinton or Guy McManly.

And yes, my support for Obama is weak enough that I would probably not vote for an Obama/Clinton ticket. I'm not much of a liberal; I'm a reluctant defector from the Ron Paul camp, actually; I'm certainly not interested in upholding the status quo that (to me) Hillary Rodham Clinton symbolizes.

There are also, I might note, quite a few people like me in pale blue states like Oregon, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

To me, this line from Clinton today in NH suggests...

2008-06-27T17:53:00.000-04:00

To me, this line from Clinton today in NH suggests Justin's prediction might be right: "Hillary Clinton referred to the combined 36 million votes for her and Obama becoming an “unstoppable force for change” now that they’re together."

Presumably, given how controlled Obama's advance operation is, Clinton's speech was checked by Obama's staff before she delivered it. This sounds pretty close to a ticket, though it might just be saying we're together. But when you say that number like that, it sounds like the leaders merging forces.

I, for one, found her less annoying than usual today.

Mark,You might need to buy this bumper sticker lat...

2008-06-27T17:43:00.000-04:00

Mark,

You might need to buy this bumper sticker later this year:

http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/
2008/06/25/you-asked-for-it-you-got-it/

Marc, don't forget that few people know as much as...

2008-06-27T17:41:00.000-04:00

Marc, don't forget that few people know as much as you do about politics. Webb, Sebelius, McCaskill, Obama, Clinton (H & B): They're all politicians. Electoral politics is politics. Why did Sebelius get behind Obama and not Clinton in the primary? Political calculation: Kansas is where Obama was from and of the 2 leading candidates (both of whom are unpopular with the general Kansas electorate), Obama was the lesser of two evils. Bonus points is that she might be mentioned as a VP pick or get a cabinet post, raising her profile (same goes for McCaskill in terms of raising her profile--very political choice on her part to raise her national profile in the primary).

And white-working class men in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other swing states have no idea who Sebelius, McCaskill, Webb, etc. are. They don't know their names have been mentioned for prez in '04 or veep in '08. Remember: we follow politics alot more than 99% of Americans if we are on this blog. Many working-class white men will look and see a woman they've never heard of getting picked over men they have heard of (and they know are qualified) such as Ed Rendell (imagine men in Penn. who supported Clinton: Obama picked an affirmative action candidate like Sebelius, when there were good candidates like Eddie Rendell or Bob Casey available? Or if they went with a woman, why not the woman I already voted for who is more qualified (in these voters' eyes, not our eyes) instead of affirmative action choices like Sebelius or McCaskill?

And I certainly don't think all Democrats are excited about Clinton: Obama wouldn't have won the primary if there weren't' some Dems that didn't like her. However, I do think about 40% of them are still excited about Clinton and ranging from some enthusiasm to outright dislike of Obama (based on recent polls showing 20% or so behind McCain and the other 20% undecided/not voting). In a Democratic year, it is easy to win with unified Dems + enough independents and I think Obama-Clinton probably does it pretty easily. I think Obama and Clinton probably struck a deal as Obama, smart as he is, sucked it up and noticed this would work as a candidacy. Clinton stepped back, quickly, probably after dealing privately with Obama.

And I am serious about this question: Is your support for Obama so weak that him picking Clinton would make you NOT vote for him, knowing he is the one that would be president? I'm curious if anything else he's done to move more to the middle (on FISA, etc.) also gives you pause, or is is just Clinton?

I do think independents who lean Obama could be turned off by a Clinton pick, but I am not sure how many there are. The few polls I've seen w/ cross-tabs show independents fairly indifferent or a wash to Clinton on the ticket versus other candidates--but the people who dislike Clinton as veep the most are hard-core Republicans and hard-core Obama folks.

So, whether we like it or not, today was part I of the Obama-Clinton '08 roll-out. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it on this web site later!

Ken,The Senate stuff is basically like two hours a...

2008-06-27T17:40:00.000-04:00

Ken,

The Senate stuff is basically like two hours away from my being able to roll out but I haven't had those two hours lately.

RASSMUSSEN Obama -9 in Texas

2008-06-27T17:38:00.001-04:00

RASSMUSSEN Obama -9 in Texas

A request for Nate,Nate, Love your blog, thanks fo...

2008-06-27T17:38:00.000-04:00

A request for Nate,
Nate, Love your blog, thanks for all the work. Is there any chance you could go back through the current Senate races and rank them according to winnability for the Dems? (especially in light of the expected extra Dem turnout this year for Obama). I think there is a decent chance that we can get to 60 Dem Senators this year and would be interested in donating to those Senate Races where my $ could do the most good. I realize this is a partisan request, and I'm not sure if that fits with your site.
Thanks, and Go A's

Ken

Justin,Contrary to what you seem to believe, NOT a...

2008-06-27T17:24:00.000-04:00

Justin,

Contrary to what you seem to believe, NOT all Democrats love Hillary or think she is ready to be president. I know plenty of Dems and indies who are lukewarm on Obama but hate McCain and Hillary. I'm one of those indies.

I don't think it would turn off working-class men at all if Obama invited another woman to be his running mate. And Sebelius has been mentioned as a potential candidate for as long as Hillary has; there was some speculation that she might run in 2004 or be Kerry's running mate, but obviously that didn't pan out. And I think McCaskill has a much more genuine warmth than Hillary has. Hillary is, like her husband, a consummate politician who calculates all her words and actions very carefully; I don't get that vibe from Webb, Sebelius, or McCaskill nearly as much.

I am disgusted with Hillary for the way she ran her campaign for the final months of the primary season, whipping up bizarre and irrelevant statistics to claim some sort of edge over Obama, winding up a robot army of angry feminists to shriek that the Obama camp was "sexist" every time they criticized the Clinton campaign (or even just won a contest), trying to strongarm the DNC into seating the Florida and Michigan delegations despite having agreed in 2007 that those primaries would and should be invalidated, dismissing the caucuses as "unrepresentative", etc. And after seeing the way she run that campaign - with extreme dishonesty and underhanded tactics - I don't want her anywhere near the chain of succession to the presidency. Remember Dick Cheney?

I agree with you that the way this "unity" campaign is being set up, it does look increasingly likely that we will see an Obama/Clinton ticket. But I certainly won't be happy about it, and I know plenty of other people who won't be happy about it, and a lot of people - myself included - might be unhappy enough about it to just stay home on Election Day.

I have this tiny, faint, glimmering hope that this election won't mean more politics as usual. If Obama rolls Hillary Rodham Clinton out as his running mate, that little hope will be snuffed out just like that.

Just a side comment- Look at the huge spike on the...

2008-06-27T17:23:00.000-04:00

Just a side comment-

Look at the huge spike on the distribution chart at about 295. I know I've seen them before, and sometimes at curious places, but I don't think I've seen one this big. Just another request to have some sample maps for those highly probable (if even 1 or 2% likely) outcomes.

Also, with the time dependence now kicking in, will we start seeing more spikes? You would think that with the passage of time, the swing states would be whittled down to two or three, causing the bell curve to look more like a castle roof. The flip side of course is that if Obama actually makes good on his effort to flip the "big sky" states and the number of swing states increases.

Nate said "If the mere suggestion that the country...

2008-06-27T17:22:00.000-04:00

Nate said "If the mere suggestion that the country might be on the wrong track is enough to send scores of independents into the Obama column, imagine what a concerted effort to frame the discourse that way might do. This is something that Hillary Clinton had started to tap into toward the end of the primary process. Screw hope -- things are bad right now -- and we need solutions."

Hillary shows Obama how to hit this theme against McCain in her Unity speech.

Clinton Says McCain=Bush

Hey, when did Virginia turn a pale red?It was blu...

2008-06-27T17:15:00.000-04:00

Hey, when did Virginia turn a pale red?

It was blue yesterday.....

I am buying what your selling. That makes sense a...

2008-06-27T17:08:00.000-04:00

I am buying what your selling. That makes sense and I hope the boys are dropping by.

And as to Clinton as VP, I despised the idea..until today. It does screw the "change" theme, but he's not even really using that anymore. He is in a very traditional knife fight with Krusty. Clinton would do one important thing, she would suck the balance of the oxygen out of the room. Krusty will become invisible. I think he still could do better, but I don't hate the idea anymore.