Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Oscars Liveblog

Wow, forgot about Jason Alexander's pathetic 80's ...

2009-02-24T21:52:00.000-05:00

Wow, forgot about Jason Alexander's pathetic 80's commercial for the equally pathetic McDLT (we called it the McDolt). I wonder if the marketing genius who came up with that is homeless on the streets of LA pushing a shopping cart still ordering that burger from McDonalds. Nobody puts the cheese on the cold side. C'mon.

jai ho...millions of people excited back home in i...

2009-02-23T11:14:00.000-05:00

jai ho...millions of people excited back home in india

HANDS OFF TO SLUMDOG.....

2009-02-23T11:13:00.000-05:00

HANDS OFF TO SLUMDOG.....

The notion that your model was a bad one is absurd...

2009-02-23T06:47:00.000-05:00

The notion that your model was a bad one is absurd, no? You had Supporting Actress at a coin-flip You had Best Actor and Best Actress at 71.1% and 67.6% respectively. Assuming the Best Actor/Actress results are independent, you had getting both of those right at a coin-flip (51.9%). I think pretty much everyone has lost two consecutive coin-flips sometimes in their lives. To claim -- on the basis of having gotten only four out of six -- that you necessarily had a bad model is stupid. Don't take crap from anyone.

Too bad Mickey Rourke did not win. It woild have ...

2009-02-23T06:12:00.000-05:00

Too bad Mickey Rourke did not win. It woild have been the perfect coda to his come back tale.

Sean Penn was an obviously political choice, a sop to the Gay community still grieving over the loss on Prop 8 and feeling wounded over relegation to second class status in the Democrat Party.

The one oddly discordant note, where Hollywood showed its true colors came during the review of those that had died towards the end they announced Charleton Heston's name, one of the most iconic actors of his time and a former head of the Academy. The applause immediately died off as the lefties in the audience sat on their hands.

It was a classless gesture from a largely classless bunch.

Hey Nate - always a great site. Most interesting ...

2009-02-23T05:43:00.000-05:00

Hey Nate - always a great site. Most interesting thing though - the surge of betting through inTrade on Hanson on Sunday. Methinks a lot of betters saw your predictions and placed their cash on.

@ hosertohoosier - Bro, you need to re-visit Stats...

2009-02-23T03:50:00.000-05:00

@ hosertohoosier - Bro, you need to re-visit Stats 101. And I doubt Nate has ever calculated ANYTHING on this blog on a so-called hotness "I predicted the Cruz win based on two factors (the "babe" factor which tends to favor the prettiest nominee in that category)" factor. That sort of nonsense he leaves to us.

Nate, I think a problem with your model was that t...

2009-02-23T03:11:00.000-05:00

Nate, I think a problem with your model was that the different results were not independent (I assume you were predicting them as if they were). For example, given that say, Milk was not winning any other Oscars, it was more likely to win best actor.

"I predicted the Cruz win based on two factors (the "babe" factor which tends to favor the prettiest nominee in that category)"

That can absolutely be analyzed (incidentally I think your reasons are rather ad hoc for most). I will assign hotness estimates for each nominee (out of 10), and see if there is a correlation.

I took a gander at the hotness score of every nominee for best supporting actress since 1990 (N = 92, minus 3 minors, to whom I did not consider), and ran a probit regression with robust standard errors.

Hotness is not a statistically significant predictor of best actors, though the correlation is positive. The model predicts that an actress of hotness 10 would have a 38.94% chance of winning, while only 10.23% at hotness 4. A Chi-Square test was unable to reject the hypothesis of independence for the model overall.

I tried a second model, however, that employed fixed effects for each year and controlled for competition (number of competitors with hotness > or equal to 7). In this case, hotness was statistically significant. At hotness 4, the predicted probability of winning was 10.5%, versus 39.8% at hotness 9 (assuming only 1 actress of hotness > or equal to 7). However, a joint Chi-sq. test did not find sufficient evidence to support the model as a whole.

2008
* Penelope Cruz - 9
Marisa Tomei - 6.5
Taraji Henson - 6
Amy Adams - 6.5
Viola Davis - 4

2007
* Tilda Swinton - 4
Cate Blanchett - 8.5
Ruby Dee - 4
Amy Ryan - 6.5
Saoirse Ronan - (minor)

2006
* Jennifer Hudson - 5
Cate Blanchett - 8.5
Abigail Breslin - (minor)
Rinko Kikuchi - 7
Adriana Barraza - 4

2005
* Rachel Weiss - 7
Michelle Williams - 8
Frances McDormand - 5
Catherine Keener - 7
Amy Adams - 6.5

2004
* Cate Blanchett - 8.5
Natalie Portman - 7
Laura Linney - 7
Virginia Madsen - 6
Sophie Okonedo - 6

2003
*Renee Zellweger - 7
Holly Hunter - 7.5
Shohreh A. - 6
Patricia Clarkson - 5
Marcia Hayden - 5

2002
* Catherine Zeta-Jones - 9.5
Julianne Moore - 6
Queen Latifah - 5
Meryl Streep - 6
Kathy Bates - 4

2001
*Jennifer Connelly - 8
Kate Winslet - 7
Helen Mirren - 6
Maggie Smith - 3
Marisa Tomei - 6.5

2000
*Marcia Gay Hayden - 5
Kate Hudson - 8.5
Judi Dench - 4
Julie Walters - 4
Frances McDormand - 5

1999
*Angelina Jolie - 10
Chloe Sevigny - 8
Toni Collette - 5.5
Catherine Keener - 7
Samantha Morton - 5.5

1998
*Judi Dench - 4
Rachel Griffiths - 7
Kathy Bates -4
Brenda Blethyn - 4.5
Lynne Redgrave - 5

1997
*Kim Basinger - 7
Minnie Driver - 6.5
Julianne Moore - 6
Gloria Stuart - 3
Joan Cusack - 6

1996
*Juliette Binoche - 6.5
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - 5.5
Barbara Hershey - 6.5
Lauren Bacall - 5
Joan Allen - 6

1995
*Mira Sorvino - 9
Kate Winslet - 7
Mare Winningham - 6
Joan Allen - 6
Kathleen Quinlan - 6

1994
*Dianne Wiest - 4.5
Uma Thurman - 8.5
Helen Mirren - 6.5
Jennifer Tilly - 8
Rosemary Harris - 3.5

1993
* Anna Paquin - (minor at the time)
Holly Hunter - 9
Rosie Perez - 6.5
Winona Ryder - 7.5
Emma Thompson - 6.5

1992
Marisa Tomei - 8
Miranda Richardson - 7
Vanessa Redgrave - 4
Joan Plowright - 3
Judy Davis - 6

1991
*Mercedes Ruehl - 7
Juliette Lewis - 7
Dianne Ladd - 4.5
Kate Nelligan - 7
Jessica Tandy - 3.5

1990 -3
*Whoopi Goldberg - 4
Annette Bening - 7
Dianne Ladd - 4.5
Lorraine Bracco - 6
Mary McDonnell - 7

Best Actor: I agree with the surprise of Penn's wi...

2009-02-23T02:04:00.000-05:00

Best Actor: I agree with the surprise of Penn's win despite Rourke grabbing two of the three major movie wards preceding the Oscars - the Golden Globe and BAFTA. The SAG, although a ceremony awarding actors, went to Penn. Still, it's true that preceding Awards predict Oscar results more reliably than the other factors Nate outlined in New York Magazine, so its odd that both Intrade and Nate were wrong.

It obviously comes down to the voters: Foreigners represent the Golden Globes and BAFTA, whereas the SAG comprise a limited electorate - just actors (not directors) and Americans account for a larger share of the voting bloc. More importantly, as some already mentioned, many SAG members are represented in the Oscar Academy.

Voting for the Oscars begun sometime in December and ended one day after the Golden Globes, providing for last minute influence. The allotted time frame allows for three non-statistical factors at play, in order of importance: (1) contempt for Rourke among members of the Academy for personal reasons; (2)the recent political buzz after November's election drawing more attention; (3) performance assessment.

I didn't see either movie, though. All in all, I'm more familiar with Penn and would rather see Milk because of its political topic, after praise and recommendations and to see both performances.

As for Best Supporting Actress: I saw both movies, and Penelope was afforded a role with more dialogue, greater intrigue, and emotional intensity. Plain simply, she rocked! Henson's role was clearly functionary in The Curious Case (not to belittle it).

I'm happy that Nate covered the Oscars, and elated 538 garners fans of both politics and the movies.

Whether Nate's prediction are good or not depends ...

2009-02-23T01:56:00.000-05:00

Whether Nate's prediction are good or not depends on whether if he betted on share in each category on intrade he would have made money and beaten the market. Let's analyze and see if he would have made money.

If you go with the market, you make a profit of about 11 dollars

Nate would have certainly made a 20 dollar profit on Slumdog for best picture and Boyle for best director.

Nate would have lost 19 dollars for betting on Hensen. Now its uncertain who he would have bet for the best the best actors and best actress, but there is a high probability that he would have stuck with Ledger and Winslet for another 20 dollar profit. At this stage Nate is 21 dollars ahead.

For best actor, he would have either put money down on Brad Pitt or Mickey Rourke. He thought Rourke would win, but the payoff is low and he could go with Pitt even though he thinks he's a long shot. He could go with Pitt since he believes he has a much better chance of winning than Intrade does. I say, most likely he sticks with Rourke and loses 70 dollars. Thus, overall Nate loses 49 dollars. His model needs revising since he would have done better by just going with the market.

Well, Nate - I'm glad you're better at predicting ...

2009-02-23T01:45:00.000-05:00

Well, Nate - I'm glad you're better at predicting politics than oscars. It was great to see Sean Penn win - all politics aside, that was a truly epic performance.

Some things can't be analyzed and put into a formu...

2009-02-23T01:21:00.000-05:00

Some things can't be analyzed and put into a formula. I posted my predictions on my Facebook page a week ago. Sticking to Nate's format, I only focused on the top 6 awards and went 6 for 6. I predicted the Cruz win based on two factors (the "babe" factor which tends to favor the prettiest nominee in that category) and the Woody Allen/comedy flick advantage that also seems to be at work there.

I based my prediction of the Sean Penn win on two factors: Prop 8 - which has been duly noted and the fact that as a burnout, Mickey Rourke probably pissed off inumerable technical people (who get to vote) during the course of his career. Whatever one can say about Sean Penn, one can never say that he has ever been anything less than professional in his craft. That means: being on time, knowing his lines, allowing the crew to do its work etc. etc. There is very little patience for people who, through whatever personal demons are at work, cause others to have to wait around, word late or suffer abuse. I call it the Judy Garland factor (and she never won an Oscar either).

The Slumdog pic/director nod and the Winslet and Ledger wins were slam dunks.

Good call overall, Señor Silver. You already suspe...

2009-02-23T01:19:00.000-05:00

Good call overall, Señor Silver. You already suspected the problem with best supporting actress, and Milk was far too good a movie to get shut out of best picture, best director, and best actor. Too bad Neilsen can't factor in your readership to the TV ratings for the Oscars this year. It might be statistically significant :)

And thanks for making this blog entertaining as well as informative and argument-provoking. We less eggheady types heart u 4ever.

i think it's really hard to predict the oscars bec...

2009-02-23T01:18:00.000-05:00

i think it's really hard to predict the oscars because there's no rhyme or reason to it. you know someone may deserve the award, but then politics gets in the way.

Thank God you were right on November 4th! After y...

2009-02-23T00:58:00.000-05:00

Thank God you were right on November 4th! After your piss poor performance here it's time to get back to statistics.

Keep away from law, too. That's a subjct you don't seem to understand yet.

'Majorly shocked about Mickey, but it's OK, Nate; ...

2009-02-23T00:55:00.000-05:00

'Majorly shocked about Mickey, but it's OK, Nate; you're still the man!

I take back my earlier criticim. The FReeptards ar...

2009-02-23T00:47:00.000-05:00

I take back my earlier criticim. The FReeptards are pissed at Penn about something. So in in this case, it was worth it. Milky Milky!

I thought Penn deserved this win, but disagreed ab...

2009-02-23T00:42:00.000-05:00

I thought Penn deserved this win, but disagreed about his Mystic River win.

@lisps - While Slumdog's end result was very predicable (meaning that the boy gets the girl and wins the money); that was just incidental to the tale that was told in the flashbacks. Boyle did a great job of telling a gritty and gripping tale that rang true in both tone and scope, as well as being beautifully shot with a wonderfully touching but current soundtrack (especially the use of M.I.A.)

I thought the Harvey Milk story was better told in the The Times of Harvey Milk. I think Prop 8 is the only reason it received a best pic nod.

wv mateapse - a friend's church

Umm...Nate? Your computer model worked. Look at th...

2009-02-23T00:40:00.000-05:00

Umm...Nate? Your computer model worked. Look at the percentages is assigned. According to those numbers and the laws of probability, there was only a 21% chance that all of the computer's top predictions would turn out to be right. I haven't chewed through all the combinations, but it looks to me like, using the computer's percentages as accurate, you would expect about two out of the six not to be the highest ranked choice. In fact, if all six had won, it would have cast doubt on the computer model, as the model itself wasn't that confident.

Nate wins! (In a geeky, statistical sense.)

Nate, your model is going to have to be revised, I...

2009-02-23T00:37:00.000-05:00

Nate, your model is going to have to be revised, Intrade beat you. Moreover, in the one category that you both got wrong (Best Actor) Intrade predicted a higher probability of Sean Penn winning.

But to be fair, Tommy Lee Jones won that year for ...

2009-02-23T00:32:00.000-05:00

But to be fair, Tommy Lee Jones won that year for The Fugitive, and rightly so. It's the best performance he's ever given.

The only part Sean Penn should have won an Oscar f...

2009-02-23T00:29:00.000-05:00

The only part Sean Penn should have won an Oscar for is Dave Kleinfeld in Carlito's Way, and he wasn't even nominated.

Just goes to show how clueless the Academy are.

I knew Sean Penn was going to win over Mickey Rour...

2009-02-23T00:28:00.000-05:00

I knew Sean Penn was going to win over Mickey Rourke. Penn deserved that award.

I'm still trying to figure out why everyone loves Slumdog so much. I didn't like it. I think by far Milk should've been winning all these awards. I just don't get it.

Hmm, biggest surprise: the foreign language oscar ...

2009-02-23T00:20:00.000-05:00

Hmm, biggest surprise: the foreign language oscar to that japanese movie.
I knew that Rourke wasn't going to win, because I remembered some sarcastic comment about how the academy loathed Ben Affleck because he did "Pearl Harbor" after they'd given him the Oscar for "Good Will Hunting" - well, and of course Rourke didn't have to act, he essentially WAS the character he played. Penn however... something completely different.
Still, I thought Langella would win and Milk would get "best picture" instead, Prop 8 and all - but as the economy turned America into a slum (lol) and as the hype grew, Slumdog had become the safe bet.

jesse Hoff said..."Nate- on the cruz suprise, try ...

2009-02-23T00:15:00.000-05:00

jesse Hoff said...
"Nate- on the cruz suprise, try teaching the computer to read female measurements next time"

Might have worked in Penn's favor as well.