Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Obama Eighteen

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T08:30:30.134-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-10T02:35:07.146-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,...

2009-08-02T01:34:11.524-04:00

自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,性感睡衣,情趣內衣,比基尼內衣,人妻少婦性感睡衣,
失戀,性愛,性感,情慾,調情,挑逗,慾望,情人節禮物,自慰器,

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T05:41:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T05:41:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-12T22:06:00.000-05:00

I'm probably too late in posting here for anyone t...

2008-06-28T10:03:00.000-04:00

I'm probably too late in posting here for anyone to read this comment, but there's a simple reason for competing in Georgia: it's competitive.

Kerry did not campaign in Georgia AT ALL, and got 23% of the white vote. If Obama gets that number to 30% -- a real possibility given the extreme lack of enthusiasm here for McCain and the registration efforts among young voters by the Obama campaign -- and if Obama does better among blacks than Kerry did (pretty obvious, huh?), and if Barr even gets 2-3% of the vote, then Obama will win Georgia.

Regarding why Georgia. Besides the possible Barr ...

2008-06-26T16:57:00.000-04:00

Regarding why Georgia. Besides the possible Barr effect previously mentioned and largely not accounted for in Nate's analysis, there's a much simpler reason: Obama did extremely well in Georgia among whites in the Democratic primary. In fact, he even won white males. Georgia (like VA, NC, and FL) is less "southern" than SC, MS, and LA because it has had lots of northern transplants over the last 30+ years.

GA is there for 1) psych, 2) Atlanta is an airline...

2008-06-26T15:35:00.000-04:00

GA is there for 1) psych, 2) Atlanta is an airline hub so it makes it accessable, 3) using Barr like Perot more psych. He's not going to win GA unless it is a totally blowout.

Of, course the double cross is to be expected. The triple cross is to be anticipated.

As to why the regression model blew it in SD (mine which is a bit different than Nate's because it concentrates on ancestry/ethnicity from Census, also missed): O messed up Sioux Falls/Sioux City and he let it go because he had the nomination sewn up.

I still think the EV distribution chart is messed up. The sometimes too fat red tail doesn't make sense.

Finally, Obama's 18 looks remarkably similar to my BATTLEGROUND discussed in the "definition of Must Win (Technical)" post where I said:
FL, NC, ND, IN, MO, VA, NH, MI, NV, OH, NM, CO, PA, WI, IA, NJ, and CT.

The difference being the politico "scoop" (controlled leak) has GA and AK, while I had NJ and CT.

GA and AK are mostly psychs, but NJ and CT on my list attest to the need to be careful about potential battlegrounds with Italian-American populations. Obama needs to get ahead of curve on that one. When the race tightens, as it will, Obama needs to be sure that NJ and CT are really sewn up because he has made a direct effort there.

Lieberman is going to beat O down in CT and if you look at the polls since 4/26 in NJ, the "trend" is counter to the rest of the polls, the race is tightening. There are demographic reasons I think that should be carefully considered.

This isn't all that related to the actual post, bu...

2008-06-26T12:40:00.000-04:00

This isn't all that related to the actual post, but did anyone do a double take on that stupid caption from the linked Politico article? "If Obama loses in November, the decision to spend widely may be seen as a distraction from the traditional battlegrounds like Ohio." Sure, ok. Here's my suggestion: "If Obama wins a landslide victory in November, the decision to focus on Bush states may be seen as a stroke of political genius." Just as valid! I guess captions writers are pretty married to conventional wisdom.

from pollster.comPOLL: Quinnipiac/WSJ/WaPost Color...

2008-06-26T10:21:00.000-04:00

from pollster.com

POLL: Quinnipiac/WSJ/WaPost Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Four surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, fielded June 17-24

Colorado: Obama 49 - McCain 44, n=1,351 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.7 percent

Michigan: Obama 48 - McCain 42, n=1,411 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6 percent

Minnesota: Obama 54 - McCain 37, n=1,572 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

Wisconsin: Obama 52 - McCain 39, n=1,537 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

-- Mark Blumenthal

June 26, 2008 in Poll Update

A co-worker of mine just showed me that the websit...

2008-06-26T10:19:00.000-04:00

A co-worker of mine just showed me that the website www.obamabayh08.com redirects to Obama's main website. She further informed me that Evan Bayh is a Senator and former governor if Indiana, which is one of Obama's borderline polling states as well as one of his 18 focus states. From what it sounds like, he's quite a popular fellow back home, so if he is tapped as the VP candidate, that's a sure sign that Obama is working to target these swing states.

Re: Georgia on the Obama mapCould the CNN world he...

2008-06-26T07:30:00.000-04:00

Re: Georgia on the Obama map

Could the CNN world headquarters possibly be a factor here?

An obvious guess about Georgia is that Obama is th...

2008-06-26T06:52:00.000-04:00

An obvious guess about Georgia is that Obama is thinking of Sam Nunn as his running mate.

Good post. Is there enough data to do at least a s...

2008-06-26T04:51:00.000-04:00

Good post. Is there enough data to do at least a super tracker graph on previous elections? Then huge changes in the graph could potentially be correlated with actual political events and big public perception changes. It would be interesting to see if the type of change could be determined to be permanent or short term. Then we'd have a sense of what sorts of stuff could happen to Obama, and what the likely results might be (although that's probably well into the realm of guesswork, it would still be interesting).

Great post, but I will offer some advice of a diff...

2008-06-26T04:31:00.000-04:00

Great post, but I will offer some advice of a different sort. You should never stretch an image with pixel-accurate sharp graphics like you have in this map, and even when you don't you should still reconsider. The map you've posted looks awful and for what? All of a few extra pixels? Just leave it at its native size or use a map rendered at a larger size, or at least use bicubic interpolation.

Nice post Sean!

2008-06-26T04:04:00.000-04:00

Nice post Sean!

This map also underscores my reasoning for my top ...

2008-06-26T03:03:00.000-04:00

This map also underscores my reasoning for my top four VP picks:

1) Tom Daschle - he probably wouldn't bring in South Dakota, but would help in North Dakota, Montana, and other plains/West/MidWest states

2) Evan Bayh - hugely popular, would almost guarantee Indiana going blue for the first time since 1964

3) Byron Dorgan - same attributes as Daschle, and he would bring in ND

4) Brian Schweitzer - same as Dorgan/Daschle, bring in MT

All four of those men are down-to-earth enough to appeal to the interior swing states, but urbane and intellectual enough to satisfy Obama's coastal supporters.

What are the states making up the 41?BTW- that is ...

2008-06-26T02:49:00.001-04:00

What are the states making up the 41?
BTW- that is also a horrible prediction- there are a lot of states that are very safely McCain- and unless those +12 or +15 polls are right, and Obama can gain on even those- the very core Republican southern and central states will have no chance of going Obama. Just like the core Democratic states would take an enormous swing to go McCain.

New Hampshire may be a relatively (for the Northea...

2008-06-26T02:49:00.000-04:00

New Hampshire may be a relatively (for the Northeast) conservative state, but it's hard to see it going GOP when the three states bordering it - VT, MA, ME - are all likely to go for Obama by margins of at least 15 percentages points.

Astonishing to see North Dakota on this list. I guess the moderating effects of both Minnesota and Saskatchewan/Manitoba are FINALLY having an impact there. There's no reason why North Dakota should be as ardently right-wing as states due south.

I predict Obama 497, McCain 41.

2008-06-26T02:38:00.000-04:00

I predict Obama 497, McCain 41.

Hey, Nate, it seems to me like there's a possible ...

2008-06-26T02:26:00.001-04:00

Hey, Nate, it seems to me like there's a possible flaw in your model of comparing demographically similar areas to extrapolate poll numbers. That flaw is, quite simply, that it doesn't account for campaign attention disparities. We saw the results of this pop up in the SD primary when Clinton won when your model predicted a healthy Obama win. Granted, you were handicapped by the fact that the state was also underpolled, but do we know that a similar situation won't arise in the general?

@Lorne Guyland (1:08)Your best bet is probably her...

2008-06-26T02:26:00.000-04:00

@Lorne Guyland (1:08)

Your best bet is probably here:
www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting.html

The .pdf report is useful, but doesn't have state-by-state racial voting breakdowns. You can get those off of the "detailed tables" link.

It doesn't have any data on 2006 yet, but it's got tons of information on 1998-2004.

RE Georgia et al...Where can I find well-presented...

2008-06-26T02:08:00.000-04:00

RE Georgia et al...

Where can I find well-presented state-level data on the turnout-performance of various demographic groups?

That is: I know the conventional wisdom is that the electorate is, historically, disproportionately white, old, and well-off, compared to the populace at large. (Dem's are saved to some extent, as I understand it, by it also being disproportionately female, educated, and unionized). But I'm not sure where to find this measured empirically, either by exit polls or registration rolls. Obviously the campaigns will want this info, and the prospect of changing that makeup is a key Obama strategy.

Is there a convenient place to find this info? Even better: Nate and Sean, do you plan to train your microscopes on this?

The data presentation and number crunching for pol...

2008-06-26T01:25:00.000-04:00

The data presentation and number crunching for polling averages, trend adjustment, 538 regression, and 538 projection are as before impressive.
BUT:
I still say that calling my old home state of ND close, or in the case of ''trend-adjusted'' for Obama by 4.4%, all working with just 2 polls nearly 3 and 4 months old; is a LONG stretch of a projection based on a very small and really old platform.

I stand by my prior assertion:
McCain will win ND. It may not be a landslide (IIRC generally defined as >= 10%), but I believe it will be comfortable.

Remember in November that I said this back in June (I'm sure many who post here will want to throw rocks if somehow I'm wrong (bet I'm not) ).