Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announ...

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2009-01-19T08:09:00.000-05:00

Dru said... CHARLES: QUIT LINKING TO YOUR STUPID B...

2008-09-25T19:04:00.000-04:00

Dru said...
CHARLES: QUIT LINKING TO YOUR STUPID BLOG. NOBODY CARES. NOBODY GOES THERE. NOBODY IS GOING TO CLICK ON IT. ITS SPAMMING AND ITS ANNOYING

___________________________________

Charles, I love your Blog, please keep the posts coming, I go there all the time

Carl Nyberg said... AxmxZ has a good point about M...

2008-09-25T18:31:00.000-04:00

Carl Nyberg said...
AxmxZ has a good point about McCain being wild.

The media should go back and look at McCain's role in starting the most deadly shipboard fire in U.S. Navy history.

McCain's jet blast caused the rocket pod on the other aircraft to cook off,

C'Mon man! I take it you've never worked on an aircrcaft carrier... they are industrial accidents waiting to happen.

This rumour is not based on any fact whatever.

You don't need to make shit up about McCain. There's enough real stuff out there to focus on.

GRAMPY McCain is on the outs. He dissed Letterman ...

2008-09-25T14:49:00.000-04:00

GRAMPY McCain is on the outs. He dissed Letterman last night, that was really stupid.
Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkcFZzNNcKI

The only possible reason why McBush might be neede...

2008-09-25T14:43:00.001-04:00

The only possible reason why McBush might be needed in Washington DC is to convince some of his fellow Nero-Conservatives (they like to fiddle around while the U.S. economy is burning - a fire they helped to start - under the guise of free-market, laissez-faire economic "principles") to work to solve this economic crisis and support the associated legislation.

McBush needs to get back to the campaign and debate to finally discuss the issues. Let the congress do its work. (He hasn't been involved for more than 166 days, anyway). Now is not the time to grand-stand and jump in at the last minute to claim all of the credit for none of the work.

Jamie,As Aaron pointed out, the trend adjustment d...

2008-09-25T14:43:00.000-04:00

Jamie,
As Aaron pointed out, the trend adjustment doesn't include Ohio polls because it measures the national numbers. This is because the trend measurement is the method for incorporating national polls, which are more frequent that polls for any individual state. Notice that the trend line looks similar to the charts from pollster.com and RCP, so it is difficult to see how Nate can be very biased in this respect.

You are correct that not "all" the polls are favoring Obama. Apologies for my imprecision, but I only meant to imply that there was a significant trend in Obama's favor that would explain his improvement in the projection. I was addressing your point that the projection "keeps bouncing suspiciously whenever his indicators get too close to predicting a McCain victory." It isn't suspicious when you consider that polls are showing significant movement toward Obama. It is true that Ohio polls still favor McCain, but the whole purpose of the projection is to take other factors into consideration, such as the national trend, which in theory (a theory you are free to disagree with) will predict the movement of the state polls once they catch up to the more frequent national polls. As for Quinnipiac, you'll notice that they are consistently given greater weight, partly because they consistently use large sample sizes. It would be gaming the system to give them less weight just because they disagree with other polls in the state.

Apologies to Nate if anything I've explained is off, but I think the general idea is accurate.

Adam said...That would have been TV station error....

2008-09-25T14:22:00.000-04:00

Adam said...

That would have been TV station error. We got an order killing ALL McCain spots as of 4pm (CT) last night.

Did you get that order from McCain talking on his cell phone in the CBS Studios' green room as the staffers were applying his makeup preparing him for his interview with Katie Couric?

North Carolina, baby!! I been sayin.Obama/Biden r...

2008-09-25T13:42:00.000-04:00

North Carolina, baby!! I been sayin.

Obama/Biden rally in Greensboro, NC on Saturday, to celebrate a strong debate performance Friday night. That makes 2 trips for each to the Tar Heel state in the past 2 weeks. +2 in NC from Rasmussen = more like a +4-5% lead, given cell phone and "Obama voter" undersampling in NC in general.

We are SO going to win this state. McCain's field offices and paid staff just came in this week. Obama's have been here for most of 2008. Dems have about 1/2 mil new registrations. Reps have about 100,000. This is a basketball state, and Obama's got the full court press.

"If one considers two polls of the same state at t...

2008-09-25T13:18:00.000-04:00

"If one considers two polls of the same state at the same time 10 points apart both valid then what is the point of polling at all?"

It's more nuanced than that. If you understood statistics, you'd understand why your question doesn't make sense. Polls are data points. Then aren't gospel taken on their own.

First, there's the bias introduced by sampling assumptions. In order to get a "representative sample," you have to make assumptions about what the population looks like and acts like. If your assumption is off, your poll will be off for one side or the other. Everybody's assumption is at least a little off.

Second, you have the margin of error. If it's +/-3, then all you are saying with your polling results is that there is a 95% chance that the real number (if you were taking the entire population, not just a sample) is somewhere within a six point range, even if your sampling assumption is perfect.

So take two polls of Michigan. A +10 and a -3.

One using a sampling assumption that doesn't push undecideds very hard, which means independents (who trend McCain) don't have to answer. You've just cost McCain two points. So your +10 is really a +8, and the marign of error means it really is just saying "there's a 95% chance the real number is between +5 and +11."

Now you take a poll that pushes independents hard. Though independents will break for McCain, the reality is that if you haven't made up your mind yet, there's a good chance you won't actually vote (even if you think you will). By pushing independents harder, you are now overstating McCain's support by two points.

So now an even poll is actually O+2. Then your MOE means it could be anywhere from -1 to +5.

So one poll says -1 to +5, one says +5 to +11.

Where do they intersect? +5. Which just happens to be almost exactly the polling average for Michigan.

We can say with confidence that the polling is showing a solid but not insurmountable lead for Obama in Michigan.

"MN, WI, MI, and IA are solidly blue within a week...

2008-09-25T13:12:00.000-04:00

"MN, WI, MI, and IA are solidly blue within a week and spending money there is useless."

I don't think I'd lump Michigan in with the other three. There have been 3 polls now that have shown McCain actually ahead in MI, which is 3 more than have shown him ahead in MN, WI, IA, and PA combined. If he's going to pick off a Kerry state, it's most likely going to be one of (in order of likelihood) NH, MI, or PA, with PA being FAR less likely than the other two.

McCain also needs to defend NC, VA, and FL, he had...

2008-09-25T13:11:00.000-04:00

McCain also needs to defend NC, VA, and FL, he had real problems there.

Stunning that Gallup is tied, but of all the track...

2008-09-25T13:09:00.001-04:00

Stunning that Gallup is tied, but of all the trackers Gallup is the wild child - jumping all over the place.

If I were McCain, I would pull out of IA and send ...

2008-09-25T13:09:00.000-04:00

If I were McCain, I would pull out of IA and send the resources to defend IN and make an effort in OH.

McCain should pull out of MN entirely: the locals there are seeing it as more of a prop up of Coleman's campaign than his own. Plus, he has been scaling back for a few weeks now.

WI is a week from a lost hope for McCain. Abandon the western front in the Midwest and retreat eastward to defend turf and possibly pull something off in PA. PA is fading fast because the UDs have been halved in the past week and trending Obama.

The OH, western PA, and IN triangle is becoming the bunker in the Midwest for McCain he needs to concentrate on. MN, WI, MI, and IA are solidly blue within a week and spending money there is useless.

"GallupTied at 46..."Well, so much for Nate's theo...

2008-09-25T13:08:00.000-04:00

"Gallup

Tied at 46..."

Well, so much for Nate's theory that McCain's stunt hurt McCain in the polls last night. Two up (three if you count Battleground), two down. Looks like just so much noise.

Gallup -O 46M 46What the fuck, Gallup?

2008-09-25T13:05:00.001-04:00

Gallup -

O 46
M 46

What the fuck, Gallup?

GallupTied at 46...

2008-09-25T13:05:00.000-04:00

Gallup

Tied at 46...

This is all expectations management by McCain. He ...

2008-09-25T13:03:00.000-04:00

This is all expectations management by McCain. He creates the perception of being afraid to debate; blogs, media, and Obama smell blood in the water; McCain comes and turns in a good performance, "wins" debate. This is designed to serve as a counter-narrative to the perception of Obama as great orator but poor debater. Mark my words!

Bill Frist on John Kerry taking time from the camp...

2008-09-25T13:00:00.000-04:00

Bill Frist on John Kerry taking time from the campaign to offer a helpful vote in 2004 to pass an important bill:

"He deserves no credit or credence for such a move. He parachutes into Washington after NOT being here for a year and a half and he wants the American people to see it as leadership? Please."

I wonder if Frist said the same thing about McCain yesterday? Bet he didn't. Define "hypocrisy"?

NEMOVkeep trying to sell your specious claim that ...

2008-09-25T12:58:00.000-04:00

NEMOV

keep trying to sell your specious claim that the Battleground tracker is the ONLY poll that has it right...

where is your proof ???

your facts are not substantiated, just an unsupported claim of infallibility...

This election cycle is like no other in many ways.

furthermore, past FINAL performance is no indication of future MID_CYCLE estimation performance either.

there is no objective way to prove or measure mid-cycle polling accuracy - it is a guesstimate.

all a reasonable person can do is scrutinize the internals [which BATTLEGROUND hides from site] and compare/average across the board.

BTW - you are confusing Battleground state polls with this Battleground tracker...

they are 2 different entities. plus the outlier that is Battleground Tracker is sketchy in how they choose to poll on some days - not every day - in a semi-random fashion + the sample is miniscule - AND NO INTERNALS !!!

just a topline chart - what are they hiding ? hhhmmmm

pwned

Wisconsin R2000 - Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6 WI ...

2008-09-25T12:51:00.000-04:00

Wisconsin

R2000 - Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6

WI is not gonna be a battleground state. MN will also stay BLUE - IMHO.

all looking fine for this point in time...

RR Obama +2 in NC & +3 national tracker with the reweightied party id #'s is a real pleasant way to start the day, no ?

We've just got to make sure that the VP debate hap...

2008-09-25T12:49:00.001-04:00

We've just got to make sure that the VP debate happens and the election is in the bag.

Seriously. The woman's unscripted speech is a caricature of syntax and a war crime against style. She's incoherent.

McCain MUST drop her from the ticket. He simply MUST.

The best pollster for National tracking is Rasmuss...

2008-09-25T12:49:00.000-04:00

The best pollster for National tracking is Rasmussen.

Until proven otherwise Battleground has been the b...

2008-09-25T12:47:00.000-04:00

Until proven otherwise Battleground has been the best poll at predicting the National vote in every presidential election since 92. Right now they show McCain up 1 with 6% undecided. Unless the other polling companies figured out something new they're not as reliable.

Has anyone here considered that Obama's ground gai...

2008-09-25T12:45:00.000-04:00

Has anyone here considered that Obama's ground gain actually may be finally moving the needle? The man has spent hundreds of millions on it, it should be having some impact now.

Here's your Palin evisceration of the day, courtes...

2008-09-25T12:43:00.000-04:00

Here's your Palin evisceration of the day, courtesy of Glenn Greenwald at Salon.com.

And a sound-byte from hilzoy: "Sarah Palin has been described as a quick study. But she has been surrounded by briefers for nearly three weeks, and she's still completely unable to string together an intelligent thought on the mortgage crisis."