Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Nation Neither United Nor Divided

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2009-10-10T04:33:32.418-04:00

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2009-03-17T22:52:00.000-04:00

I got a 307. Not too shabby. I like to see myself ...

2009-03-14T12:53:00.000-04:00

I got a 307. Not too shabby. I like to see myself as a pragmatic progressive, if someone can show me FACTS to why an idea is right, I don't much care if it is a progressive or conservative idea I would like to go with it.

290/400. When I saw that my score was considered ...

2009-03-13T11:14:00.000-04:00

290/400.

When I saw that my score was considered Very Progressive and was off the comparison chart they linked I was surprised and kind of upset. I consider myself fairly conservative in many areas and thought calling me Very Progressive said weird things about our country.

After reading the comments here I feel much better. I AM more conservative than most of you guys posting.

FYI. I chose 0 or 10 only a few times.

I scored a 298/400 which labels me as very progres...

2009-03-12T17:09:00.000-04:00

I scored a 298/400 which labels me as very progressive (or San Francisco Republican). Interesting link Nate.

My apologies, Mr. Shackleford.LOL

2009-03-12T15:54:00.000-04:00

My apologies, Mr. Shackleford.

LOL

John and Troy: good analysis, thanks!

2009-03-12T15:01:00.000-04:00

John and Troy: good analysis, thanks!

I found some of these questions very hard to answe...

2009-03-12T14:57:00.000-04:00

I found some of these questions very hard to answer because of their generality. For example:

African Americans and other minority groups still lack the same opportunities as whites in our country.

The degree to which I agree with this varies widely (probably from 6 to 9) from minority group to minority group.

"The global scale part scares me. Since the body w...

2009-03-12T13:34:00.000-04:00

"The global scale part scares me. Since the body would obviously have to be made up of members of other, often corrupt, countries, how would we legitimize that body's binding decisions on the US?"

Well, the liberal answer to that is to use a constitution that severely limits the amount of power that the body has, which is pretty much what we do with the UN as it stands.

I understand and agree with the complaints about sovereignty; that was one of the biggest anti-WTO arguments.

I also thought it was strange that I ended up with 330, "extremely progressive." I'm a practical liberal, more progressive than classical, but I also know that from my political compass results, I tend toward anti-authoritarian anti-capitalist results (even as I'm not actually anti-capitalism, just pro-regulation). For example, the question about corporations' responsibilities: they're legally obligated to make as much money as possible under the law. I have no real problem with that, but I think that it means that the law has to be very clear in protecting the interests of the people as a whole, because corporations can't be charged with that as an inherent condition.

I was also surprised that I ended up so far out there, because I think about the only things that I gave hard answers to were regarding things like gay rights, where I really don't think there's any sort of rational argument against them.

I scored 287 and thought that was high until readi...

2009-03-12T13:07:00.000-04:00

I scored 287 and thought that was high until reading some of these comments! Perhaps the quiz needed a few more nuanced questions on immigration. It's not such a simple issue.

Well, that superhero test is obviously biased. I r...

2009-03-12T12:22:00.000-04:00

Well, that superhero test is obviously biased. I refuse to take any test seriously that does not have Wolverine as an option.

Nate, that was fun. I got a 351 which makes me an ...

2009-03-12T12:08:00.000-04:00

Nate, that was fun. I got a 351 which makes me an extremely progressive. But that wasn't quite a shock. One thing I noticed about myself while taking the test was that when it came to the progressive/liberal statements I agreed with them 100% but when it came to most of the conservative statements I would nudge my numbers back a bit, seeing more shades of grey than I think my Bizarro-twin would. I know there has been scientific studies that show that most people with a conservative mindset tend to follow strict authoritarian figures and who tend to see things in either/or and black and white answers. Progressives and liberals on the other hand tend to question all statements and leaders and don't see the answers to problems as either/or but rather a combination of both. I think the nation's desire for bipartisanship is the nation's way of saying that it's moving in a more progressive direction. I think the nation has evaluated that the "Either you're with us or against us" is not them at this time. Either/or way of thinking gives the American people soundbites and bumpersticker slogans while parsing the shades of grey can't by their nature be reduced to those terms. The last election and the inability of the Republicans to gain any sort of traction against President Obama show that for now American 'pendulum' is moving towards the left. How long that swing will last lies solely on the performance of our President. How you will be able to tell that the swing has stopped is when the right can effectively use soundbites and bumpersticker slogans to convey complex problems.

Interestingly enough the only question that fell into the middle range was the one on free trade. I notice several other commentators also had problems with that question. I wonder if that is the nature of the topic or if it was the way the question was worded.

Wow, and I thought my 344 was off the charts till ...

2009-03-12T11:57:00.000-04:00

Wow, and I thought my 344 was off the charts till I came to the comments. Oh well, if nothing else I can balance the other Dale. Of course, what I REALLY want to know is, what is Nate's score?

I think a linear regression is the wrong model for...

2009-03-12T11:25:00.000-04:00

I think a linear regression is the wrong model for fitting this data. There are almost certainly some issues that everyone will agree on and some that will cause a partisan divide. In that case, I'd expect the data to lie along an X, connecting the four corners. Something more complicated model (unbinned likelihood perhaps?) could tell you the fraction of points associated with a postive or negative correlation. That would then tell you (for this sample of questions) how much we have common vs. partisan values.

Of course, the "for this sample" qualifier is highly important. If you take the sample and add 10 questions about abortion, you're almost certain to see a sizable jump in the apparent degree of partisanship.

I think there is more disagreement than agreement....

2009-03-12T10:56:00.000-04:00

I think there is more disagreement than agreement.

Starting from top right quarter and going clockwise - 1st and 3rd quarters show agreements. 2nd and 4th show disagreements. There are more dots in the 2nd and 4th. None in 3rd.

Ofcourse that could depend on the questions. If there were questions like "do you support hitler's ideas" - there would be many dots in the 3rd quarter.

The average score was 207. Just shows that majori...

2009-03-12T10:55:00.000-04:00

The average score was 207. Just shows that majority here lean left in some cases way left.

Rudy,Consumer debt is 100% of our GDP. we do NOT l...

2009-03-12T09:46:00.000-04:00

Rudy,
Consumer debt is 100% of our GDP. we do NOT live our lives conservatively.

People who live their lives conservatively, if they're in a dual income family, only spend one person's salary on necessities, therefore if either gets laid off, they're still functional.

Born and Bred American Dopes. -- Jas Jain

I was very put off by the conservative frame to th...

2009-03-12T08:49:00.000-04:00

I was very put off by the conservative frame to the questions. Hu Chi I guess you noticed this too.

My guess that any person who is used to reacting negatively to such frames would get the over 300 score (mine was 351 and 367 when I went back and wrote down all the questions.)

One that amused me was "it is unpatriotic to criticize our government leaders in time of war". That one has given me whiplash trying to follow the GOP on this. Impeaching Clinton as he went into Bosnia, the hysteria about mild concern about Iraq, and now another head snapping call for violent insurgency against Obama.

One could do an entire Nate Silver/George Lakoff column on every one of the questions, and I would expect that any reality based Web Aware person to score over 300 just on that alone, quite aside from their natural right/left proclivities.

My score is 301/400. In the US I'd consider myself...

2009-03-12T04:54:00.000-04:00

My score is 301/400. In the US I'd consider myself a mainstream liberal Democrat, in Germany I'm rather a slightly conservative leaning moderate and aligning with the CDU.
Well, this just shows how far to the right the US (or- how far to the left Europe) is.

In the VoteMatch test I got 80% social and 32% economic score.
I think that's about right- socially liberal, fiscal moderate, leaning liberal.
Compared with the senators from back then I'm most agreeing with Kohl, Kerry, Reed, Daschle and Durbin, and least with Smith (R-NH), Graham, Roberts, Stevens and Bunning. Yeah, disagreeing with the insane nuts. Fine with me.

JenIf you guess your father was right, you're not ...

2009-03-12T03:41:00.000-04:00

Jen

If you guess your father was right, you're not a hippy-- unless your father's a hippy, which is groovy.

hoser

Yeah, it's a silly survey, but as a conversation starter it's not too bad. Which superhero are you?

One other note, when I say the "correlation is str...

2009-03-12T03:31:00.000-04:00

One other note, when I say the "correlation is stronger", technically I'm talking about the magnitude of the correlation.

@PatrikIndeed, I prefaced my comment with essenti...

2009-03-12T03:29:00.000-04:00

@Patrik

Indeed, I prefaced my comment with essentially the same caveats. If I had the time, I would run a cluster analysis. I'm also interested to see the post on which data points correspond to which types of questions.

If the question type divides along these groups, then I think there will be a stronger case to argue for a trend.

Also, it isn't right to say the correlation is entirely because of the division. Dividing the points will generate a stronger correlation in some distributions that in others. For example, if the data were evenly distributed across the plane, dividing the data along y=x wouldn't introduce nearly as strong a correlation.

Moreover, I would guess that the correlation is stronger if you divide on y=x than if you divide on y=-x

Now I'm not saying that any of this is definitely the case, but I think it is a little hasty to say that there is no pattern to these data.

NateNow you know who you're audience is. Heh, heh....

2009-03-12T03:08:00.000-04:00

Nate

Now you know who you're audience is. Heh, heh.

jonathan

Don't kid yourself, man. You're a hard core lefty like the rest of us. Surveys don't lie. Now get out there and kick some right wing ass!

Redshift

You're moving away from everybody else so fast that your score got shifted way left. If you'd stand still for a minute you'd be about a 320-340 like all the other reasonable people (except for Dale, who's blue-shifted to the same degree that you're red-shifted).

"That survey is seriously miscalibrated. It rates ...

2009-03-12T03:03:00.000-04:00

"That survey is seriously miscalibrated. It rates me as extremely progressive, and I'm center-right."

Of course it is - it is a survey put out by a group with a strong incentive to claim that most Americans are liberals. It is no different in that respect than that quiz the Libertarians have circulated for years (which finds a plurality of people to be libertarian).

That is why, for instance, they have some really crappy analysis on why the country is more "progressive" that compares 1988 and 2008 election results (does that mean we are less progessive than in 1996).

Consider a few things:

1. The quiz does not address issue salience. I may have strong support the death penalty, yet it might also not be a big issue for me.

2. The survey does not include a weighted balance of social, foreign and economic issues. I scored a 157, for instance, although I answered as liberal as I could on every social issue question.

3. The quiz uses slanted wording. "should we reduce poverty even if it means higher taxes ON THE WEALTHY". Another question asked whether one supported "IMPOSING DEMOCRACY", and gave Iraq as an example of this, as opposed to say, Japan or Germany.

4. Some of the questions were rather irrelevant to the progressive-conservative divide. The best example of this was the question of whether the government should focus more on things at home or abroad. There is certainly a tradition of both on the American right and left.

That survey is seriously miscalibrated. It rates m...

2009-03-12T02:35:00.000-04:00

That survey is seriously miscalibrated. It rates me as extremely progressive, and I'm center-right.