Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why You Don't Bluff

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2009-09-25T07:37:39.275-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:07:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:07:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T06:36:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T04:19:00.000-05:00

Regardless of your views or preferences, McCain's ...

2008-10-17T22:44:00.000-04:00

Regardless of your views or preferences, McCain's blowing off Michigan is likely to cost him the election. How could he so publicly diss a swing state and kick it's voters to the curb?

On top of that, he didn't feel it necessary to notify either his running mate or the state and local Republican organizations. What kind of leader makes decisions without involving his key people? That's pretty fricking scary!

So, Michigan has been affronted by Obama when he dropped his name from the primary. And McCain turned his back more than a month before the election. Interestingly, the independents have opened offices in Michigan. Maybe it's time to vote completely outside the main parties. After all, they don't seem to be representing the people very well any more.

If "Joe the Plumber," McCain, and Obama are not as they seem, who can average Americans trust?

MIRS (Michigan Information and Research Service .....

2008-10-12T21:04:00.000-04:00

MIRS (Michigan Information and Research Service ... mostly covers Michigan State Government) newsletter Editor Kyle Melinn had a darker suggestion, but it might be true.

He suggested that McCain may have pulled out because "the only way he could win Michigan was through a racially charged campaign he didn't want his paws all over."

I don't remember seeing anything but negative ads for McCain in months, and they haven't slowed down, so it isn't clear what his pullout really means -- except that he now has deniability.

There had already been some targetted cable ads that even the Michigan Republican Chair admits were appealing to racism, though they were from an independent group.

Apparently the Bradley effect went into double-digits in a pair of State Senate races two years ago.

I hope it wouldn't be nearly that high statewide, but ... Melinn says the expectation is still 5%, which would have made it a dead heat at the time.

The article said that the first post-announcement ...

2008-10-10T14:52:00.000-04:00

The article said that the first post-announcement Michigan poll was by Rasmussen, and gave Obama +16, but I don't see that (or anything since a 9/30 PPP poll) on the right-hand-side details.

Is that a freshness issue, or are some polls not included (or at least not broken out)?

McCain's campaign didn't announce the Michigan pul...

2008-10-10T14:49:00.000-04:00

McCain's campaign didn't announce the Michigan pullout until after it had already been on the news. At first, they wouldn't even confirm it. At some point, they may have decided it was better not to be caught in an obvious lie, and to have an excuse for when they do lose Michigan.

Since McCain announced that he was withdrawing fro...

2008-10-10T11:59:00.000-04:00

Since McCain announced that he was withdrawing from Michigan (2 weeks ago?), we've noticed no decrease in his TV ads, and we've actually started getting flyers for him in the mail. This, in one of the most strongly Democratic areas of the state.

I LOVE McCain's stunts!! They've all worked out s...

2008-10-10T11:09:00.000-04:00

I LOVE McCain's stunts!! They've all worked out so well for the republicans.

jroc133 said.... . . can anyone explain to me how ...

2008-10-10T04:56:00.000-04:00

jroc133 said...
. . . can anyone explain to me how the right-wing media got so many middle class Americans hoodwinked and bamboozled into thinking that if you disagree w/ Republicans in anyway that makes you a communist/socialist, terrorist sympathizer, muslim, who also happens to be a gay crack addict?

It was the Republicans themselves, pounding (since Goldwater lost in 1964 and even more so with Nixon and every R candidate after that) with the 'Democrats are socialists, and socialists are Communists' mantra every time they gave a speech. Then when the Reich-wing radio blowhards like Lush Rimbaugh started bloviating, it went 24/7/365.25 .

Heraclitus:There is an RSS feed:http://feeds.feedb...

2008-10-09T22:06:00.000-04:00

Heraclitus:

There is an RSS feed:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/538dotcom

your continual decline amuses me Jack.. keep it up...

2008-10-09T21:55:00.000-04:00

your continual decline amuses me Jack.. keep it up, lord knows we all need the laugh.

Oh and which part of the Republican party will still be standing come 2010? Expect major infighting and fracturing, hell this might be the birth of a(nother) third party.

Hayford: "Rich, you didn't carefully read what Nat...

2008-10-09T21:39:00.000-04:00

Hayford: "Rich, you didn't carefully read what Nate said."

In point of fact, I read Nate's comment carefully. You seem to not understand what a non sequitir is.

Nate said, "Voters really, really don't like it when you blow off their state."

I agree with that. Voters in Iowa didn't like it when McCain, for example, blew off Iowa.

Voters in subsequent states, however, don't care about that. Therefore, Nate's conclusion that it was because Giuliani blew off some early primaries that his campaign floundered -- "It's why Rudy Giuliani's decision to ignore every state that didn't begin with an 'F', end with an 'a', and have 'lorid' in the middle was a catastrophic failure." -- does not follow.

Don't go to the other thread on this site---it is ...

2008-10-09T20:48:00.000-04:00

Don't go to the other thread on this site---it is ugly.

I have to got to see Obama's fund raising number f...

2008-10-09T20:47:00.000-04:00

I have to got to see Obama's fund raising number from last month. They seem to have a bottomless well of money - half hour on primetime, millions of fliers, huge ground game, outspending at least 3-1 on TV...

This is what changed most in American politics in the last 4 years (Dean started it, Obama has built it into an unstoppable machine): when you can build a party that's well financed on just millions of $100 individual contributions given over the web, and whose ground game is recruited on MySpace, you don't have to get indebted to large special interests. You can turn down all the PAC money, and you can build a party that actually represents the people. 4 yesrs later, if you represented them well, they'll give you another $100. If you didn't, well, more fool you -- they won't be donating, and may donate to your opponent. So now the Democrats don't have to sell out to big business for the campaign contributions with strings attached, they can -- and indeed have to -- thumb their nose at them and do what's right for the people, since the people are where most of their money is coming from.

Currently, the Republican's are still stuck sucking at the teat of Big Business. That's why they're this wierd alliance between the super-rich (who fund the Republican campaigns) and the poor, un-educated, and bigoted (who can be tricked into voting for them with "socially conservative" window-dressing and hate or fear filled attack ads).

Sooner or later, the Republicans are going to move into the 21st century and start gathering donations online. Whne they do, they're going to drop Big Business like a vote-less hot potato, and go all-socially-conservative-all-of-the-time combined with a tax-and-spend economic populism policy that's unashamedly in favor of the poor, uneducated, and rural voters. There are already "Conservative" thinkers publishing books advocating exactly that. And that's how McCain is cating his latest mortgage proposal (though it's actually an even better bailout for the banks than the current one) -- the government giving huge numbers of tax dollars to the poor and uneducated who took out foolish mortgage loans.

In response to this, the Democrats are going to be forced to end up being the party of the well off, as well as the educated and socially liberal, i.e. they're going to end up looking rather like the Libertarians.

So then it'll be the Uneducated People's Party (R) vs. the Educated People's Party (D), pure and simple, without odd crossovers like Real Joe -- he'll now be voting for the fiscally responsible low-tax small government Democratic party.

This is my first post, and I just want to say how ...

2008-10-09T20:36:00.000-04:00

This is my first post, and I just want to say how grateful I am, not to Nate, Sean, et al (though I am grateful to them) but rather to the commenters here. Over the last several days, this campaign has taken a decidedly ugly turn, and no matter where I go, the comments and discussions on news and political Web sites are filled with venomous attacks from both sides. This seems to be the one oasis of calm civility, where people can (usually) disagree with one another without resorting to angry hyperbole.

So, sincerely, thank you all very much!

I have a piece up at the Huffington Post that deta...

2008-10-09T20:17:00.000-04:00

I have a piece up at the Huffington Post that details one of the down-ticket races in Michigan's 7th Congressional District that is seeing influence from the top of both tickets. Obama's surge in Michigan is benefiting Mark Schauer while McCain pulling out may well prove devastating to Tim Walberg's attempt to hold on to his seat. Check it out for more details.

Is there still such a thing as "the most important...

2008-10-09T20:05:00.000-04:00

Is there still such a thing as "the most important swing state"?

obama lovers,There will be no reconciliation after...

2008-10-09T19:36:00.000-04:00

obama lovers,

There will be no reconciliation after the election if he wins. There will be no coming together. He will have 47% (or whatever % McCain gets) that will never accept him as president, due to his divisive approach.

He will inherit a big recession and Dems will be voted out of office in 2010.

I see a lot of posts and stories about early votin...

2008-10-09T19:35:00.000-04:00

I see a lot of posts and stories about early voting. Are there any exit polls? If so, results; if not, why not?

If McCain actually went to MI, held a few rallies ...

2008-10-09T19:31:00.000-04:00

If McCain actually went to MI, held a few rallies it might reverse the polls. But it's unlikely he would think of doing it. And if he did, he would probably only talk about Ayers and shit instead of the economy. A complete McDufus now is he.

So McCain is a gambler? From what I can see, he's...

2008-10-09T19:27:00.000-04:00

So McCain is a gambler? From what I can see, he's a loser, a patsie, free money -- throwing away his wife's inheritance.

Now Sean, I understand, is really a gambler, and from what I found on the web he's won some pretty serious money playing poker. And Nate has something of a reputation for online poker. These two are gamblers, not losers.

This is a strange campaign, McCain has to compete ...

2008-10-09T19:14:00.000-04:00

This is a strange campaign, McCain has to compete in a much wider field than he planned to. It was obvious with Michigan how his pulling out affected the polls, but what about other traditionally red and yet swing states such as North Carolina or Indiana? Even though they are in play, the McCain campaign does not seem to pour a lot of money or effort into securing them. Did neglecting their votes help Obama make these states competitive? Or in other words, was Obama's 50 state strategy a win-win situation? If so, it may dramatically change the way future campaigns are waged.