Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Patience, Poll-Watchers

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2009-03-12T01:59:00.000-04:00

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There's one thing that I still keep in mind...the ...

2008-09-08T10:14:00.000-04:00

There's one thing that I still keep in mind...the cell phone crowd that only has a cell phone and no land line. That would be the Obama crowd. There has got to be SOMEONE who has some type of polling model that could figure that demographic and give an analysis.

Simple potentially dumb question. If a post conven...

2008-09-08T09:00:00.000-04:00

Simple potentially dumb question. If a post convention "bounce" is real, why not plan and execute a second convention one week before the election? Showcase your best and brightest, hit the opponent arguments and (yes) personality hard, and leave no time for the electorate to have later lasting impressions? It does seem as though the American electorate (sigh) likes the last shiny toy it sees, so let's make sure it's ours. HAVE ANOTHER CONVENTION STARTING ON NOVEMBER 1!!

There has been a lot of discussion about what I wo...

2008-09-07T23:56:00.000-04:00

There has been a lot of discussion about what I would claim are "small ball" issues (to use a baseball metaphor): items that last a news cycle or two, but really can't change the narrative (or popular vote) much.

For example:

- housegate
- will Gen. Colin Powell endorse Sen. Obama?
- vetting of Gov. Palin
- was Gov. Palin Sen. McCain's first choice?
- Gov. Palin used a GWB speech writer
- Sen. McCain has a temper.
- did Gov. Palin REALLY sell her plane on ebay?

You get the idea. Regardless of whether there's a one-day advantage in pushing them, there's not much to gain from repeatedly pushing them.

Instead, Obama should deal with the elephant in the room: Palin.

I'm not saying attack her directly, which would be counter-productive. Rather, he needs to confront the impact of her entry into the race. If Palin takes 5-10% of Hillary's supporters, Obama probably loses one or two key battleground states, and thus the election.

Switching to a chess metaphor:

Obama worrying about those above "small ball" issues is like fiddling with pawns and knights in the center of the chessboard, while McCain has pushed a pawn to the last row and promoted it to a queen (Palin). He's now moved the queen to Obama's first row and is picking off pieces one by one (Democratic women voters).

How should Obama respond?

Not by talking about the following issues:

- the decision to start the Iraq War
- the surge
- abortion
- whether McCain is Bush III or not
- and probably a few others

Why? There's nothing more to say. All voters have formed an opinion on these issues on how important they are, and know where the candidates stand.

Obama needs to stop the queen from picking off his pieces: he needs to focus on the economic issues which many voters (especially women) are still unsure about, since they're complicated to explain and compare between the candidates:

- energy
- middle-class taxes
- stability of financial institutions
- the overall health of the economy
- health care

Switching back to a baseball metaphor, Obama needs to play "Earl Weaver baseball:" good pitching, good defense, and the three-run home run.

The economic and policy issues are where the three-run homers lie. Not the small ball, process stuff.

Powell endorsement would be big. He is arguably mo...

2008-09-07T23:46:00.000-04:00

Powell endorsement would be big. He is arguably more popular than Obama, and would have been a presidential favorite if he could have gotten over the impossible task of being nominated by either party. For him, endorsing Obama would help him exorcise any personal demons he might have about his UN speech and the bogus tubes.

I would bet the million dollars I don't have that Rice will vote for Obama,although we will never know until years form now when she writes a memoir or even later when a historian gets to sniff around in her personal papers.

I am nervous about this election because it's so important to kick the bums out, and I've seen the ineptness of previous Democrat elections. Schrum was almost as lame as McCain with technology. He didn't use a computer either. I do think that Obama, Ploufe, and Axelrod are all extremely bright and seem to know what they're doing. They have come back from rough patches before.

I am concerned about the factoid--maybe I read it here--that 15 out of the last eighteen nominees who led after both conventions have gone on to win. One exception is Reagan which this election most closely parallels--I hope. People need to reach a comfort level and then Reagan/Obama wins because they do want to kick the bums out.

Actually, that 15 out of 18 thing is one of many that goes down each election cycle. Some of them are silly like if the NFC wins the superbowl, either (I forget which one) the Democrat or Republican will win. Others have a semblance of reasonableness like who leads after the convention. But this is a unique year in many ways, not the least of which is that the conventions were right on top of each other. (Incidentally, I haven't seen anyone point out that the Deomocrats met before Labor Day--people on vacation, and the Republicans after Labor Day--back to work and school. Viewership is higher then, so if you weight the ratings by this and Obama's ratings are even more impressive.)

Many of these prediction rubrics remind me of similar stuff in baseball such as the Mets can't win this game because they're 0 for 11 when down by 3 runs in the fifth inning.

petekent:No response to my last post either, huh?I...

2008-09-07T22:50:00.000-04:00

petekent:

No response to my last post either, huh?

I don't usually get personal, but that looks like cowardice to me, unless you just missed it. Or do you just answer questions when you feel like it?

If you can't or refuse to answer some very sensible questions, you can't expect to be taken seriously.

Filistro: Among the key things that I have learnt ...

2008-09-07T22:49:00.000-04:00

Filistro: Among the key things that I have learnt in my adult life is that it is extremely unwise to disregard female "gut reactions" (except when it comes to getting direction to a specific location). [I showed the CNN summary of the Palin speech to my 13 year old daughter, and her first reaction was "Is it a good idea to get so aggressive on your first major speech?" - that told me something as well..]

So, as it seems, Palin may not have the desired effect on undecided WMAWC women. The question, of course, is: Will they actually vote, or stay at home in disgust of both tickets?

realistix is pointing out a 15 point swing to McBr...

2008-09-07T22:42:00.000-04:00

realistix is pointing out a 15 point swing to McBrilliant in five days.

To what do we attribute it?

McC's new post-partisan populism and the Palin effect?

This to me feels structural. It is too large a movement, too suddenly to be accounted for by the attention the RNC got and for this to be dismissed as a "bounce".

Palin has, I think, provided an excuse for many fence sitting voters, posing as Obama supporters, to jump ship and go a different way.

Does it come back to Obama needing to close the deal?

Does this means he loses PA again?

Malan:that will only make Obama bin Biden look mea...

2008-09-07T22:32:00.000-04:00

Malan:

that will only make Obama bin Biden look mean and partisan. The Reps have found a winning, spot partisan formula that will isulate them from your suggested line of attack.

Frank... yes, I think it's broadly reperesentative...

2008-09-07T22:30:00.000-04:00

Frank... yes, I think it's broadly reperesentative of WMAWC women, which is why I found it so interesting.

Palin has been very polarizing among women. White evangelical women are excited about her... also other women with a vested interest in keeping Republicans in power are (cynically) positive as well.

But those women who have reason to be concerned with health care, job security, child care and other real-life concerns seem quite turned off by her manner and what they know of her views.

As those views become more widely known I think this feeling will increase. Right now my impression from talking with women is that the negativity is more of a strongly female "gut reaction" but in days to come it will become a reasoned opinion, and thus very difficult to change.

The Democrats got to get their shit together and g...

2008-09-07T22:18:00.000-04:00

The Democrats got to get their shit together and go after the jugular. We're playing for keeps and nobody cares if you run a respectful, truthful campaign anymore.

Paint John McCain as the flip-flopping, out-of-touch carpetbagger that he is, while still keeping up on the message of how Republican policies have wrecked our economy.

Five days ago the same poll had Obama up 7.http://...

2008-09-07T22:13:00.000-04:00

Five days ago the same poll had Obama up 7.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm?csp=34

I know it's nuts but bounces are just that. They go up and they go down.

Now tell us more about inflection points and structural changes in the race LOL!

I'm saying YOU don't really condemn sexism unless ...

2008-09-07T22:12:00.000-04:00

I'm saying YOU don't really condemn sexism unless it conforms to your needs for political hackery.

Filistro - thanks for the link to the LA Times art...

2008-09-07T22:10:00.001-04:00

Filistro - thanks for the link to the LA Times article! Is this typical for middle-aged blue collar women? Latest polls suggest otherwise. What is your take?
(btw: Love your posts as well!)

Frank from Germany

petekent: I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any th...

2008-09-07T22:10:00.000-04:00

petekent: I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any thing you posted i felt i had to respond to.

Way to avoid answering anything resembling a tough question, petekent.

Real people engage their critics and think about their positions. If you don't have an answer, I'll assume it's because you don't have one, and so you concede.

Therefore, I will assume that you accept that McCain, not Obama, is really living in the Potemkin Village of "change" since he has failed to offer policies regarding the economy, the budget, health care, or foreign policy that differ significantly from the Bush administration, and that your assertion to the contrary in the prior thread was false.

And I also assume that you're willing to sacrifice basic principles of democracy (truth, honesty) in order to get your candidate elected. (I asked in the previous thread about your comment that made it seem like you didn't much care about the truth of a claim against Obama as long as it worked against him.) And you're the one who had doubts about Obama's commitment to the nation. Way to put person over principle.

It's your choice to destroy your own credibility by not backing up your own arguments in the face of criticism.

Joespeh:I am pointing out mutliple layers of hypoc...

2008-09-07T22:02:00.000-04:00

Joespeh:

I am pointing out mutliple layers of hypocrasy.

But you are refusing to condem sexism, insteAD YOU ATTACK THE MESSENGER.

I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any thing you po...

2008-09-07T22:00:00.001-04:00

I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any thing you posted i felt i had to respond to.

Frank! I've been waiting for you... I wanted you t...

2008-09-07T22:00:00.000-04:00

Frank! I've been waiting for you... I wanted you to see this.

(Apropos what we were discussing the other night.)

Oh, no! It just started to get interesting here, w...

2008-09-07T21:56:00.000-04:00

Oh, no! It just started to get interesting here, with a REAL debate on issues (budget and taxes - kudos to both of you, MPM and Charles), but immediately it is all back again to gossip. If that is what an election campaign is about with youm I can only say: Poor America!

Frank from Germany

Petey, sweetie...the First Rule of Shunningcf "Off...

2008-09-07T21:55:00.001-04:00

Petey, sweetie...

the First Rule of Shunning

cf "Official Shunning Handbook" ch 11, pg 156, parag 6

When a person, having given great offense, is being shunned, you must neither speak TO that person nor ABOUT that person until such time as the shunning shall be determined to have concluded."

You really must try to follow the rules, Pete. They're important to shunners like you.

Your friend,
Filistro

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Patience, Poll-Watchers

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There's one thing that I still keep in mind...the ...

Simple potentially dumb question. If a post conven...

There has been a lot of discussion about what I wo...

Powell endorsement would be big. He is arguably mo...

petekent:No response to my last post either, huh?I...

Filistro: Among the key things that I have learnt ...

realistix is pointing out a 15 point swing to McBr...

Malan:that will only make Obama bin Biden look mea...

Frank... yes, I think it's broadly reperesentative...

The Democrats got to get their shit together and g...

Five days ago the same poll had Obama up 7.http://...

I'm saying YOU don't really condemn sexism unless ...

Filistro - thanks for the link to the LA Times art...

petekent: I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any th...

Joespeh:I am pointing out mutliple layers of hypoc...

I am sorry Dsimon, I did not find any thing you po...

Frank! I've been waiting for you... I wanted you t...

Oh, no! It just started to get interesting here, w...

Petey, sweetie...the First Rule of Shunningcf "Off...

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