Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall

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2009-10-03T04:20:24.928-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:42:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:42:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:47:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:25:00.000-05:00

I appreciate Voice of the Midwest's analysis of th...

2008-10-28T10:17:00.000-04:00

I appreciate Voice of the Midwest's analysis of the GOP and their motivation of cashing in on the ignorance of the electorate. How sad it is that there are still those who feel that the Old Fart and the Tart would be good for the country. I was at Obama's rally in Canton, Ohio yesterday, and he is just fantastic. Presidential, serious, so intelligent...and that sincere smile...he may not be all things to all people, but he is what our limping, injured country needs right now. I will be out canvassing and working my ass off to get Obama elected on November 4.
GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

Nate Silver writes: "I'll give you a hint. It's no...

2008-10-27T21:00:00.000-04:00

Nate Silver writes: "I'll give you a hint. It's not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth."

_________________________________

A "commonwealth," you say?

That sounds very socialist to me!

...especially these days.

Given Obama's massive margins in CA, NY, IL, and M...

2008-10-27T19:22:00.000-04:00

Given Obama's massive margins in CA, NY, IL, and MA, aren't the margins in those states accounting for a large part of Obama's national margin of aboout 5-6 points in national tracking polls? Especially given how relatively small McCain's margins are in the largest hardcore red states like Texas that would normally do some offsetting?

Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 4 in Virginia.

2008-10-27T19:17:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 4 in Virginia.

Chuck Todd made an interesting point the other day...

2008-10-27T18:34:00.000-04:00

Chuck Todd made an interesting point the other day. If Obama managed to hold onto his leads in VA,CO and wins Nevada he could lose PA, OH AND FL and still win the election. Talk about your paths to victory.

I thought you guys were projecting New Hampshire f...

2008-10-27T17:45:00.000-04:00

I thought you guys were projecting New Hampshire for Obama! You said you were projecting that Obama would win all of the Kerry states, except for New Hampshire. Is this a hypothetical situation or is this what you are actually projecting?

Nate, could you post % for "McCain wins VA, loses ...

2008-10-27T16:54:00.000-04:00

Nate, could you post % for "McCain wins VA, loses election" or "Obama wins VA, loses election"... It seems at least as important as the numbers for OH...?

Does Alaska have early voting? If so, those Steven...

2008-10-27T16:47:00.000-04:00

Does Alaska have early voting? If so, those Stevens votes would count.

Also, Mark Begich has been polling around 45-46%.

Stevens could try this Hail Mary - vote for me, I will resign is appeal doesn't work (he'd be expelled anyway), then under Alaska law there would be a new election in a few months. Don't take it out on the party.

That won't work, but he might try it. Palin will be pressed on her thoughts on this.

Stevens might win a procedural appeal, then be tried. And he likely gets one of Bush's multi-thousand pardons.

The GOP's best option might be to have Stevens say...

2008-10-27T16:44:00.000-04:00

The GOP's best option might be to have Stevens say that if this is appealed and not overturned, he'll resign. Alaska law requires that an election, not an appointment, would pick the new Senator.

I don't think he'll have much choice if it's not overturned on appeal--he'll be in prison rather than the Senate chambers. He'll miss more votes than McCain.

If the polls continue to hold, this could be an el...

2008-10-27T16:42:00.000-04:00

If the polls continue to hold, this could be an election night without suspense, which would be very good for a change.

Since the polls close earlier on the east coast, this election could theoretically be wrapped up by the time the polls close in the the central time zone. If Obama gets victories in ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL, and MO, he also gets to that magical 268 in electoral votes. In theory, if he were to win those states, then as pointed out by Nate Silver, he needs only one more state. Notice on the list above, CA, a traditionally democratic state, isn't even included. We may not need to wait until the early hours of the morning to know who won this election.

Unlike over here, where we hear 100 times a day th...

2008-10-27T16:41:00.000-04:00

Unlike over here, where we hear 100 times a day that Republicans are conspiring to steal the election.

The Left definitely has their share of crazies as well, but are you suggesting that comments about Republicans attempts to suppress Democratic leaning voters are without any validity? Or, did you have something else in mind? I've seen lots of comments about the former, not much about the latter.

On Ted Stevens:He has been tied with the Dem candi...

2008-10-27T16:31:00.000-04:00

On Ted Stevens:

He has been tied with the Dem candidate; obviously that changes the dynamic.

The GOP's best option might be to have Stevens say that if this is appealed and not overturned, he'll resign. Alaska law requires that an election, not an appointment, would pick the new Senator.

That's hardly a strong position for the party.

Stevens might indeed win an appeal (it was a weird trial) on procedural issues. His defense likely will ask the judge to overturn it. But even so, it is hard to think he'd be reelected. Alaska also has Palin as a joke to deal with; they don't need another.

On the other hand, expect Bush to include Stevens among the hundreds if not thousands he pardons.

I don't just have a tin-foil hat! I have a hot ti...

2008-10-27T16:30:00.001-04:00

I don't just have a tin-foil hat! I have a hot tin-foil roof!

Bradley,what would you say to someone who says tha...

2008-10-27T16:30:00.000-04:00

Bradley,
what would you say to someone who says that the fires of hell are but icebergs compared to my hatred of America?

Real Joe? What type of surprise? You can't leave...

2008-10-27T16:29:00.000-04:00

Real Joe? What type of surprise? You can't leave everyone hanging like that...gotta deliver....peoples got things to do...

On another note, my word verification is Smess

I played a game called Smess ("The Ninny's Chess") all the time at my cabin in Oregon when I was little.

"It's tin foil hat land over there and at redstate...

2008-10-27T16:27:00.000-04:00

"It's tin foil hat land over there and at redstate"

Unlike over here, where we hear 100 times a day that Republicans are conspiring to steal the election.

With Palin and the racial slur, I couldn't decide ...

2008-10-27T16:25:00.000-04:00

With Palin and the racial slur, I couldn't decide if she was simply too dull to depart from her written speech or if she's just evil for not even considering calling out the racist for the remark. Given her history, probably the latter.

In addition to the slur and the Pittsburgh hoax attack and the thinking-Republican (semi-oxymoron) endorsements of Obama, etc., the Stevens news is just another in a series of unbelievable almost-daily debacles in the McCain campaign, most of them self-inflicted.

lol real joe - are the delusional freepers still w...

2008-10-27T16:18:00.000-04:00

lol real joe - are the delusional freepers still wasting their time on that instead of getting out the vote???

hee heeeee

It's tin foil hat land over there and at redstate. You should read one of those threads. Someone will point out that there was a contemporaneous newspaper announcement of Obama's Hawaii birth and they still cling to their delusions.

CNN Breaking News: Sen. Stevens found guilty of al...

2008-10-27T16:15:00.000-04:00

CNN Breaking News: Sen. Stevens found guilty of all counts in corruption trial.

Another one bites the dust.

SWEET!

Jury: Stevens guilty on seven countshttp://www.pol...

2008-10-27T16:14:00.000-04:00

Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14819.html