Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls (AM Edition), 7/31

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2009-03-11T22:13:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:13:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:51:00.000-05:00

Becky Sharp is exactly right on drilling (and VA C...

2008-07-31T23:34:00.000-04:00

Becky Sharp is exactly right on drilling (and VA Conservative is exactly missing it). The federal EIA lays the numbers out pretty clearly.

We currently consume 21 million barrels of oil per day, of which 6 million are produced domestically and fifteen million we must import from OPEC nations. New leases will take ten years to develop and eight more to hit maximum capacity. As a long term energy plan that might make sense. Except...

At maximum capacity we would be able to get at most another 2 million barrels per day - still needing to import 13 million barrels from OPEC, who would still entirely control the price. And of course with 18 years growth in the economy, we'd be importing even more than the 15 million barrels we do today.

Even if oil were not a dirty source of energy, it would still be an absurd energy plan. Until we produce significant amounts of energy from sources other than oil, we sacrifice our energy independence, environmental health, and economic security to the whim and greed of OPEC and commodities speculators. Drilling is not an energy plan. It is spurious pandering to the current pain at the pump, will provide profit only to oil companies, and will continue to jeopardize our economy and environment.

I apologize that this is not about today's polls, but it is incredibly frustrating that this is never discussed clearly in the MSM, so I feel it's fair to respond to posts like VA conservative's about the brilliance of drilling as a solution to our energy needs. It's not just wrong because I'm a hippy environmentalist. It's wrong because the very conservative math doesn't add up.

Mike, You are selectively reading polls.Gallup has...

2008-07-31T19:30:00.001-04:00

Mike,

You are selectively reading polls.

Gallup has him at +1, but Research2000 has him at +12 and CNN at +7, I think the average is somewhere around +4. 2.8 seems to be conservative to me.

Mike, You are selectively reading polls.Gallup has...

2008-07-31T19:30:00.000-04:00

Mike,

You are selectively reading polls.

Gallup has him at +1, but Research2000 has him at +12 and CNN at +7, I think the average is somewhere around +4. 2.8 seems to be conservative to me.

Nate, are you being overoptimistic?Gallup lead is ...

2008-07-31T19:24:00.000-04:00

Nate, are you being overoptimistic?

Gallup lead is down to one. You've got his lead at 2.8%
and he's at 50%. Can it really be?

"All the polling shows that drilling is as popular...

2008-07-31T19:06:00.000-04:00

"All the polling shows that drilling is as popular in Florida as it is anywhere else. Obama should not talk about drilling at all unless he absolutely has to."

Drilling's going to go away as a major campaign issue. Gas prices always peak in the summer and they've already started falling. Come fall, gas prices will be well under $4 a gallon and the gas spike of this summer will be viewed as a warning about our need to move away from gas and toward alternative fuels without the urgency to bring down prices.

The value of high gas prices as an issue for McCain is going away and I'm not sure that he has a lot else on the economic front - I would guess that he'll shift to taxes as his economic issue, but I'm not sure how much that's going to help.

All the polling shows that drilling is as popular ...

2008-07-31T18:49:00.001-04:00

All the polling shows that drilling is as popular in Florida as it is anywhere else. Obama should not talk about drilling at all unless he absolutely has to.

I think Obama's got a very good shot in Florida. I'm surprised because I didn't use to think this. McCain cannot continue to ignore Florida. It is an absolute must-win for McCain. Money that McCain was planning on devoting to Cincinnati is now on its way to Tampa. That has to be frustrating for his staff.

Gaining a ground in a state like Kentucky is very ...

2008-07-31T18:49:00.000-04:00

Gaining a ground in a state like Kentucky is very good news for Obama amidst what I would consider a lot of troubling news. Clearly Appalachia is growing more comfortable with him, which won't get him Kentucky but will help him in PA and OH.

Shockingly, it actually seems plausible that McCai...

2008-07-31T18:32:00.000-04:00

Shockingly, it actually seems plausible that McCain could lose Florida. I thought he would be a dead-on favorite there. But between the offshore drilling issue and the "social security is a disgrace" gaffe, he is shooting himself in the foot.

McCain cannot win without Florida. Assuming that Iowa is in the bag for Obama, even losing New Mexico AND Michigan would still lead to an electoral vote tie. That's an absolute best-case for McCain minus the Florida result. And it's very unlikely Obama will lose New Mexico.

I think Obama may actually win the state if the narrative doesn't change -- his polling numbers there are surprisingly good across several different pollsters and so far the issues are favoring him.

If Obama wants to win the energy debate, he has to...

2008-07-31T18:17:00.000-04:00

If Obama wants to win the energy debate, he has to push the point that oil companies aren't drilling in the places they already have rights to, and he needs to start bandying about a bold sort of new alternative energy initiative. His "new kind of politics" rhetoric is in danger of wearing thin; he needs to challenge McCain on the "straight talk" front by serving up some candor of his own, which he hit out of the ballpark back with that "A More Perfect Union" speech and has appeared to sidestep ever since.

People in Fla don't want to drill. They're veteran...

2008-07-31T18:11:00.000-04:00

People in Fla don't want to drill. They're veterans of this debate see through the talking points. McCain may gain ground in OH and CO with this issue but will lose ground in Fla.

Of course, it's a chance he has to take since nothing else is gaining traction.

Another example of the Bradley effect: HRC won the...

2008-07-31T18:04:00.000-04:00

Another example of the Bradley effect: HRC won the TX primarily handily but lost pretty bad in the caucuses. Folks were plain intimidated at those things!

There is no Bradley effect, and no reverse Bradley effect. There are just wrong polls. This must not have a reason. UNdecided Voters may do this by random, as far as we know (not ONE undecided voter, for sure, but I argue that out of a crowd of 1 Million undecided voters McCain and Obama have the same chance to eek out an advantage.Compared to their result with the other 95% of voters.)

And the Bradley effect in 2008 is basically based on NH and CA, I´d also add MO, even if there weren´t many polls. On the other hand, we´ve had states like NC, SC, VA, WI, OR,SD where most to all polls underestimated Obamas margin- yes, there are some southern states in that mix, but also a midwest and a pacific state.

After all there is no prove of Bradley or Reverse Bradley this year- just of the fact that polling isn´t as accurate as we´d wish.

The Kentucky and Texas polls are encouraging as we...

2008-07-31T18:00:00.000-04:00

The Kentucky and Texas polls are encouraging as well. Obama won't win there, but it does show he is making some progress into solidly red territory.

We haven't seen anything out of WV in quite awhile. The Kentucky result reminds me how curious I am about WV. I have a feeling it won't be as much of a blowout as was implied by the primary. Its still not a swing state, but I am curious.

I'm pretty happy with the new polls. Yes Obama is...

2008-07-31T17:57:00.000-04:00

I'm pretty happy with the new polls. Yes Obama is down from the 5% poll in Montana, but I never totally believed that poll anyway. We now have more evidence that Montana is a swing state. It is kind of hard to believe since Bush won it by 20. Montana does have Democrats in both senate seats and the Governor's seat.

Its kind of funny, RCP still doesn't list Montana as a toss-up even though they have McCain's lead there as less than Obama's in Michigan which they do list as a tossup.

I think Obama has a genuine shot at Montana. I still don't think he'll win it but he's got a shot, especially if McCain stubbornly decides to all out ignore it. If Obama is the only one on the air, he has won it.

Sorry for the double post -- I thought the first o...

2008-07-31T17:56:00.001-04:00

Sorry for the double post -- I thought the first one didn't go through.

New state polls from Rasmussen:Texas: McCain + 8%M...

2008-07-31T17:56:00.000-04:00

New state polls from Rasmussen:

Texas: McCain + 8%
McCain 52%(50%), Obama 44%(41%)

Kentucky: McCain + 10%
McCain 49%, Obama 39%
No leaners info? Weird.

Montana: Tie
McCain 47%(45%), Obama 47%(44%)

Texas has remained mostly static with both Obama and McCain gaining equal ground from undecideds.

Kentucky has shown about 4% gains for Obama and McCain shows a small 2% loss, but drops under 50% for the first time.

Montana shows the reverse of Kentucky, with a 4% drop for Obama and a 2% improvement for McCain.

I'd say all-in-all today was a polling tie. Montana remains competitive, and the other 2 states are not.

New state polls from Rasmussen:Texas: McCain +8%Mc...

2008-07-31T17:47:00.000-04:00

New state polls from Rasmussen:

Texas: McCain +8%
McCain 52% (50%), Obama 44% (41%)

Kentucky: McCain +10%
McCain 49%, Obama 39%
Leaners aren't mentioned? Weird.

Montana: Tie
McCain 47% (45%), Obama 47% (44%)

Obama improvement in Kentucky, McCain improvement in Montana, Texas same. Some odd mixed results.

Mule Rider-Define limited circumstances. To you i...

2008-07-31T17:36:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider-
Define limited circumstances. To you it may mean the big three. To someone else it may mean parental notifacation of a minor patient, a waiting period, and a South Dakota style speach. They don't define the term "limited circumstances" so you can't infer what people think from how they answer that question.

Instead, you have to look in the text where they directly address such questions:

"The highest levels of support for legal abortions are seen for the severe hardship cases -- those performed for health problems related to the woman or fetus, or when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. There is some variation in these attitudes according to which trimester the abortion would occur in. Most Americans support abortion to protect the life or health of the mother right into the third trimester, but support for terminating a pregnancy in which the baby would be born mentally or physically impaired drops below half in the third trimester."

"The lowest levels of support for legal abortion are for those sought for lifestyle or financial reasons, or for when the mother does not want to have the child. Only about 4 in 10 Americans think abortion "when the woman does not want the child for any reason" should be legal in the first trimester, and support drops well below that in the third trimester."

And one final comment on the Abortion issue to tr...

2008-07-31T17:27:00.000-04:00

And one final comment on the Abortion issue to try and shut it down:

Let's take an extreme case. Barring evidence that unwanted children tend to have behavioral problems, violent tendencies, etc, what if the pregnant woman commits suicide before or directly after an abortion and before arrest/charges are filed?
In either case, the child is dead, but there is no one to punish, making the law moot.

Keeping in mind that the mother dying during or immediately after childbirth has almost been entirely eradicated due to modern medicine within the last century, what legal or ethical grounds exist to say that the life of the child is of equal or greater merit than that of the mother?

Of course, there needs to be responsibility for one's actions, practicing safe sex, using contraceptives (which some sects hate, right?), but in cases where the mother is unable to choose if she wants to get pregnant, she should be able to choose if she wants to STAY pregnant.
Unless the pro-lifers want to take away and regulate guns, legal drugs, cars, heights, cleaning products, knives, pillows, ropes/chains, hooks, coat hangers, etc. etc. etc....
The mother can terminate her own life and kill the fetus anyway.

Any objections to that scenario? So what if it's not likely. That's not the point. The point is that banning all abortions is mixing religion with politics and claiming it as mainstream values for something that won't work, trying to turn it into a polarizing issue that only comes up in an election year, and, as with gay marriage, will never be settled because it helps the GOP keep the evangelicals under control.

Can we get back to poll-related discussions now, and leave this tired argument behind?

Liberal or conservative, we're looking at the data and giving opinions on why the NUMBERS read one way or another.

If Nate says: "Hey guys, looks like abortion is going to be a major issue based on screens that are being used in these new polls", then we have cause to discuss the merits of the questions.

Until then, keeping the comments clean of posts like this one is something the majority of readers and commentators appreciate.

Last I have on this: From your link, MR, 53% of Am...

2008-07-31T17:26:00.000-04:00

Last I have on this:

From your link, MR, 53% of Americans call themselves "pro-choice" whereas 42% call themselves as "pro-life". Thus, "This is my own personal opinion, but of the ~40% [sic] who say abortion should be legal in limited circumstances, a vast majority consider themselves "pro-life," is just that - your own personal opinion, unsupported by fact or evidence qual or quant.

Since 28% of the total sample are unrestricted access, that means that of the people surveyed, 25% of the total group or slightly (1-2%) under half of the limits crowd are people who identify as pro-choice/some limits. It's a majority who are anti-choice/some limits, but it's not a "vast majority".

Okay, I may have overlooked one thing...the "self-...

2008-07-31T17:21:00.000-04:00

Okay, I may have overlooked one thing...the "self-id" pro-choice or pro-life shows people leaning slightly more pro-choice...but once again, looking at how they respond to specific questions about it's application, 58% think it should be eliminated or restricted to extreme circumstances whilst 41% think it should be legal in most or all cases.

All while 53% believe in upholding Roe v. Wade and 33% want it overturned.

Go figure.

A complex issue indeed. Okay, I just wanted to add those tidbits. I'm not trying to make big waves in my assessment, just point out an argument made by Cugel weeks ago on the same topic quoting the same source was a little bit flawed when he categorically labelled Barack Obama as sharing mainstream America's views on abortion.

Bush won Montana by 20 both times. Obama can't be...

2008-07-31T17:20:00.000-04:00

Bush won Montana by 20 both times. Obama can't be unhappy to be in a virtual tie there, even if he's lost ground in the last month. Always good to make the other guy defend his home turf.

Daniel, your TX and MT numbers are with leaners. T...

2008-07-31T17:18:00.000-04:00

Daniel, your TX and MT numbers are with leaners. To be consistent, KY is 52-43 with leaners.