Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Voter Contacts

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2009-10-08T05:47:19.830-04:00

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2009-02-16T23:15:00.000-05:00

McCain gets to inherit the GOTV machine of Bush/Ro...

2008-08-18T00:52:00.000-04:00

McCain gets to inherit the GOTV machine of Bush/Rove/RalphReed.

If they have inherited the machine, they still haven't figured out where the keys are yet.

This is where rally attendance gives us clues. Getting people to rallies is basically the same as a mini-GOTV operation. You get a bunch of local volunteers to call up other party loyalists and tell them there is a rally and they should come and invite their friends.

So far the Republicans haven't been able to consistently get 1000 people to a rally. I wonder about whether they will really have the 1,000,000 volunteers it requires for a successful GOTV operation.

Perhaps a dumb question, but are these new voters ...

2008-08-18T00:46:00.000-04:00

Perhaps a dumb question, but are these new voters being reflected in the current polls. If not, why not?

I guess thats the $64,000 question but I would note that the "likely voter" issue probably undercounts them.

Where is the site that shows the voter registratio...

2008-08-18T00:41:00.000-04:00

Where is the site that shows the voter registration numbers?

Voters by party?

New regs by party?

People keep referring to these stats but I can never find a site that summarizes them.

Sean - great explanation of voter contacts. But no...

2008-08-17T22:26:00.000-04:00

Sean - great explanation of voter contacts. But no one has hard data on contacts and won't until November if ever (is there hard data for 2004?).

More importantly, is there a documented link between more contacts and more votes? Anecdotally, the Ron Paul campaigns in Iowa and NH had little to show for large volunteer armies contacting voters. Paul simply matched pre-election polling. Meanwhile McCain outperformed polling without any ground game in Iowa and without anything noteworthy in NH.

Assuming there is a positive relationship between voter contacts and votes, though, how many voter contacts does it take to net one vote? If Obama does 50 million more voter contacts than McCain over 4 months, does that net him 25 million votes or 500,000 votes? My hunch would be on the low side.

Finally, consider that the voter universe is finite, so even if Obama can do 100,000 contacts a day for 100 days in Ohio, he faces diminishing returns. The first 2 or 3 contacts per voter probably serve to reinforce the message, but the 4th or 5th would have diminishing returns. So Obama may simply finish contacting voters earlier than McCain rather than contacting more of them.

Great to see you and Frank Rich in a panic.The PPP...

2008-08-17T21:51:00.000-04:00

Great to see you and Frank Rich in a panic.
The PPP April poll is hardly relevant. Neither Obama or McCain had secured the nomination of their respective parties at that stage. The last three polls were post-nomination polls and pure Obama vs McCain matchups.
Going from +11 to todays tie IS a big deal except for those who hung around the Obama "Change" & "Hope" Kool Aid stand too long.
MAC IS BACK

Rob S said... "Perhaps a dumb question, but are...

2008-08-17T21:50:00.000-04:00

Rob S said...

"Perhaps a dumb question, but are these new voters being reflected in the current polls. If not, why not?
If so, why isn't Obama's support stronger?"

That seems like one of the smartest questions that I've seen in my limited experience here, but what do I know.

Here's an unscientific suggestion: I haven't heard of a pollster who reaches CPO voters effectively (cell-phone-only). I haven't had a land line in a decade, and in that time, zero pollsters have called me.

I volunteer for Obama, and Sean's description represents my experience so accurately, it's scary. It's also scary what some voters say when I call, but that's another story.

For what it's worth, I also volunteered for Kerry, and the Obama operation is much more organized.

It's mostly about getting out the base, which has much more room for expansion on the Obama side. If the campaign registers enough college kids, and enough of them stop texting mindlessly long enough to vote, he'll win. If they're skilled enough, maybe they can text and vote simultaneously.

MICHAEL -big deal, PPP has a 45-45 tie.PPP had it ...

2008-08-17T21:06:00.000-04:00

MICHAEL -

big deal, PPP has a 45-45 tie.

PPP had it 49 McCain - 41 Obama in April [+8 McCain] so getting back to only 45% is no big deal in mid-august.

your post is trolling...

That is why I say these close polls are only telli...

2008-08-17T20:19:00.000-04:00

That is why I say these close polls are only telling a quater of the story. Come election day these pundits will be beating themselves over the head wondering how they did not predict such a large victory.

"First, Michael above has it pretty close -- McCai...

2008-08-17T19:49:00.000-04:00

"First, Michael above has it pretty close -- McCain gets to inherit the GOTV machine of Bush/Rove/RalphReed. It's true that Obama is doing great things in the field -- and they should do all they can. That does NOT mean it gives them a huge advantage. It may mean they pass the GOP machine from 04 slightly; it may mean they simply catch up; it may mean they make progress but don't catch up. What Reed found out in FL is that the 72 hour machine using evangelicals and fundamentalists in churches is a huge advantage. As an Obama fan, I'm glad he's doing all he can; I'm not sure it's worth 2 or 3 points overall."

It's not having a 4 year old list, it's the micro-targeting of new voters, plus registering them and herding them to the polls that's key.

Micro-targeting is the political equivalent of the credit bureaus, who know everything about what your spending is whenever you use a credit card. The goal of a good micro-targeting effort is to gain that kind of detailed voter map, just like Sean explained in the article. Try and imagine being a lender and having to rely on a 4 year old credit report!

Bush won in 2004 not because he had some magic "list," he won because he had many thousands of volunteers compiling a micro-targeting of Republican leaning constituencies, and followed up that list with multiple contacts, so that as election day neared, the GOTV effort had detailed knowledge of who had voted and who hadn't, who was persuadable and who wasn't, what Demographics were most favoring them, where did they need to send volunteers on election day, who needed assistance getting to the polls, etc.

There's NO SUCH THING as taking Rove's list from 4 years ago and using that to win. It just isn't possible!It takes a constant massive effort to do this kind of work and you need legions of enthusiastic volunteers, because it involves hours of tedious work for each contact. This effort is VERY labor intensive. The more people you use, the more time you spend, the better. There's no SHORT-CUT.

All the Reich-wingers just ignored that because it wasn't in their "Mac is back!" talking points, and some Obama supporters seem to have missed it too.

This effort cannot be invisible. It's a VOLUNTEER driven effort. You needs many thousands of volunteers in every state doing the grunt work, spending endless hours calling voters, usually 4 times at least before they make a voter contact. Then it's following up with those voters, etc.

Re-read the article above! Sean lays it all out in detail. Unless McCain is going to be able to completely duplicate that kind of effort he's going to be at a serious disadvantage.

NEWS at 11!PPP poll for Ohio just came out showing...

2008-08-17T19:27:00.000-04:00

NEWS at 11!

PPP poll for Ohio just came out showing a tie!

One month ago Obama was up 8pts in the same poll

Two months ago Obama was up 11pts in this same poll

Nate, care to comment on the trendline? The evidence is in:

MAC IS BACK!

Jack-be-nimble said.... . . and of course Virginia...

2008-08-17T19:18:00.000-04:00

Jack-be-nimble said...
. . . and of course Virginia.

You appear to be much more confident than the McSame campaign:

A top strategist for Sen. John McCain's campaign said Thursday that the presidential contest in Virginia will "undoubtedly be close" this fall and acknowledged that the state should no longer be considered a Republican stronghold.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/14/AR2008081403248.html

Mike

Images of Karl Rove going door-to-door for McBrain...

2008-08-17T18:51:00.000-04:00

Images of Karl Rove going door-to-door for McBrain spring to mind, Darius Crack. Quel joke.

Sean must smoke a lot of dope. Which is fine only if he shares it out evenly with Pete Kent and Darius Crack.

Very much appreciated Sean,it´s easy to talk about...

2008-08-17T18:47:00.000-04:00

Very much appreciated Sean,

it´s easy to talk about the "advantage on the ground" that the Obama campaign supposedly enjoys without actually knowing what that is.

Here is the final electoral count.McCain will have...

2008-08-17T18:39:00.000-04:00

Here is the final electoral count.

McCain will have 283
Obama will have 255

McCain will take Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire and of course Virginia.

It is possible that other states will fall to McCain including Michigan, Oregon and Pennslvania in a landslide.

ROB,Not a dumb question at all. That has been deb...

2008-08-17T18:30:00.000-04:00

ROB,

Not a dumb question at all. That has been debated endlessly, but cannot be proven until November.

It all depends on the model that each pollster constructs & how they weigh the data input.

Sean & Nate & many others would probably argue that these new voters appear to be under-represented in the LV screening by Rassmussen & other pollsters.

Some methodologies for determining 'Likely to Vote' discount respondents who have not voted previously as unreliable historically.

Time will tell but this is why all the drama about the GOTV impact as well as new registrations, motor-voter & poll ID, etc.

In Novemeber we will find out if the electoral projections properly factored in all of these dynamics.

Perhaps a dumb question, but are these new voters ...

2008-08-17T18:17:00.000-04:00

Perhaps a dumb question, but are these new voters being reflected in the current polls. If not, why not?
If so, why isn't Obama's support stronger?

Nice post, Sean, and there is a good article in to...

2008-08-17T18:12:00.000-04:00

Nice post, Sean, and there is a good article in today's NY Times about the effort in NC which underscores what you said. One stat jumped out at me in particular: In North Carolina since May, there have been 45,000 new Democrats and 44,000 new Indys registered. There have been (drum roll, please) 7,000 new Republicans. So to sum up, in a second tier swing state, Dem and Indy registration is 99,000 and GOP is 7,000. I think the story we all missed in 2004 was the extraordinary GOTV job by Rove. I mean, if ANYONE had told you that Kerry would add 8 million votes to Gore's total, we would have said landslide victory.

Sean, is right to say the story the media are missing this time around is the massive foot soldier and registration gap, and thus the likely voter models, which all value older white voters and discount young and Af-Am and first time voters (not to mention folks with a cell and/or caller ID), means that current polls are highly suspect.

The enthusiasm gap (along with the intelligence gap) are the two big uncovered stories of the campaign.

In 2004 at his high water mark Kerry fielded 3 mil...

2008-08-17T18:07:00.000-04:00

In 2004 at his high water mark Kerry fielded 3 million volunteers and Obama will have 6-7M on election day.

The 72 hour game can only work if you have data that has been built by people and managed by the campaign.

McCain is MIA in all but a couple states and the RNC is vastly overmatched and has to support up and down the ticket.

The ground game is real and yes it builds on the Bush/Rove model and McCain has forsaken that game for some odd reason...

Do we have any proof that Mccain's campaign has an...

2008-08-17T17:49:00.000-04:00

Do we have any proof that Mccain's campaign has any traces of Rove's GOTV machine? I know Schmidt is one of Rove's guys, but that's the only real connection between the two(and he's not a microtargeting expert).

DarienCrow,If Nate did say that he had Obama by 5 ...

2008-08-17T17:48:00.000-04:00

DarienCrow,

If Nate did say that he had Obama by 5 EV, I am not sure where that comes from or in what context.

Yesterday, Sean posted that 538 had the race @ Obama 293, McCain 245. [see below]
-----------------------------------
'538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-August' by Sean on Saturday, August 16, 2008

"Our final deep breath before the VP picks and the conventions is a good time to do the monthly update of battleground states according to our projection model...

The good news for Barack Obama is that no states have flipped in our projections since mid-July...

Two Obama-projected states sit on the precipice of flipping: Ohio and Colorado.

The mid-August projection -- using a winner-take-all model rather than the probabilistic version that we usually use here -- remains at Obama 293, McCain 245."
-----------------------------------
Maybe Nate is now prepared to drop OH into 'toss-up' or put into McCain's count as a snapshop standing as of today rather than a prediction/projection for November.

In that case, 273 EV for Obama might be a reasonable estimate, and that would explain Obama @ 273 EV. RCP has him down @ 295 EV today.

Or was Nate just referencing Rasmussen's EV tote which has been predicting 273 EV for Obama for the past 3 weeks w/o including his 3 'toss-up' states ?

Perhaps Nate was a last second stand-in for Scott R. today... [my bet]

I think the idea likely effectiveness of Obama's f...

2008-08-17T17:38:00.000-04:00

I think the idea likely effectiveness of Obama's field operation is overstated.

First, Michael above has it pretty close -- McCain gets to inherit the GOTV machine of Bush/Rove/RalphReed. It's true that Obama is doing great things in the field -- and they should do all they can. That does NOT mean it gives them a huge advantage. It may mean they pass the GOP machine from 04 slightly; it may mean they simply catch up; it may mean they make progress but don't catch up. What Reed found out in FL is that the 72 hour machine using evangelicals and fundamentalists in churches is a huge advantage. As an Obama fan, I'm glad he's doing all he can; I'm not sure it's worth 2 or 3 points overall.

Second, I hope Obama's machine effort doesn't give the campaign any overconfidence. Current polls and 538's supertracker put this race in the 1-2 range. One effective, late advertising campaign by the GOP/McCain folks could easily move those numbers 2-4 points, meaning Obama loses. Period. Right now McCain is winning the advertising wars. If Obama doesn't hold his own on that front, quite simply, he will lose regardless of the effectiveness of his field operation.

Obama's team needs to be more effective, more attacking, and less reactive to the GOP. The latter's attacks are mild compared to what's coming, and already they are working.....

For people who don't know who Bob Beamon was, he w...

2008-08-17T17:21:00.000-04:00

For people who don't know who Bob Beamon was, he was the long-jumper whose 1968 World Record jump was unbeaten for 23 years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Beamon

Obama's GOTV effort isn't going to be the high-water mark for that long at all.

By 2012 Republicans will realize that to compete they need to match that exact effort. And Democrats will be trying to go beyond it.

Bush started it in 2004. Rove identified 4 million evangelical Bush voters who didn't vote, and figured out a strategy to get them out.

Kerry tried to match that effort and largely succeeded. He got 8 million more voters, but this effort was simply DWARFED by Bush's GOTV effort which turned out a staggering 11 million new more Bush voters in 2004 than in 2000.

They did this through a massive volunteer effort coordinated by the Bush '04 campaign headed by Karl Rove.

The problem for Republicans this year is that all the low-hanging fruit has been picked. Evangelicals, weekly church-goers, married women, gun rights supporters, anti-gay activists, etc.

Yes, the local RNC field offices will help turn out their voters, but where's the massive effort to identify and micro-target new voters? Where's the constant follow-through and thousands of volunteers that we saw in 2004?

McCain is doing surprisingly well in re-assembling the Bush coalition of 2004. But, that coalition is simply too small this year to win, unless Obama fails to secure his own base.

As I've said before, it all comes down to the base. If Obama can turn out his base in a percentage similar to Kerry, he wins. If not, he loses.

Republicans haven't come to terms yet with the fact that Republican-leaning demographic groups are declining, but it's a fact. This is the last election where a Republican will have a decent chance to win for a long-time, unless they abandon Reaganite conservatism:

"It took from 1968 to 1980 for the New Deal majority to collapse and for a new conservative Republican majority to be born; and it is taking from 1992 until sometime in this decade for the conservative Republican majority to disintegrate and for a new Democratic majority to emerge."

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/product-
description/0743254783/ref=dp_proddesc_0
?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

Political scientist Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at both the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation, as well as a Fellow of the New Politics Institute.

Also... why didn't you tell everyone here you were...

2008-08-17T17:13:00.000-04:00

Also... why didn't you tell everyone here you were going to be on Fox News?

You wouldn't be ashamed of being on TV would you?