Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/17

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2009-01-19T09:15:00.000-05:00

Here are some [trivial] thoughts that genuinely oc...

2008-09-18T10:29:00.000-04:00

Here are some [trivial] thoughts that genuinely occur to me

* Palin really isn't that hot. I think she is someone you would pick up in a bar and be quite pleased with yourself, but then go on a date with and think 'what was I thinking?'

* Its fascinating how right wingers on this site seem to not want to be Republicans. It seems the more right wing you are, the more likely you are to say 'I am not a Republican'.

* Gustav brought a good polling day for Obama, Lehmans brought a good day for Obama in the polls. Maybe the Gods have endorsed there candidate.

* But does Trump endorsing McCain mean anything to anyone?

* Only 3 times since the end of WW2 have the Republicans fielded a younger candidate than the Democratic Party (Dewey/Truman, Nixon/Humphrey, Bush/Kerry).

* Presidents have a habbit of being born in the wrong color state (at least by todays standards or coloration) Bush- CT, Clinton- AR, Bush sr- MA, Reagan- Il, Carter - Ga. The last President born in the roght colored state was Gerald Ford born in bright red Nebraska. Hawaiian born Obama could end this run. Not sure how to classify McCain on this measure though. (maybe we can assume a military instillation is red?)

* Interestingly though, recent Presidents are often born outside the state that 'makes them'. Since Ford took over in August 1974, only Bill Clinton was born in the state he is most easily associated with. This is a trend bound to continue, and will also continue if either President should be suceeded by their VP.

* Of course whoever wins will be the first President born outside of the 48 contiguous states.

* Only 4 people had represented Arizona as Senators when John McCain was born, and only 3 in the House. (6 overall as Carl Hayden had been in the House and Senate).

* Mind you Hawaii had only been a state 2 years before Barack Obama was born, and Alaska had only been a state 5 years before Sarah Palin was born.

For Indiana, the Indianapolis Star relased their p...

2008-09-18T10:09:00.000-04:00

For Indiana, the Indianapolis Star relased their poll of likely voters showing Obama 47% to McCain's 45%.

Take it for what it is worth, but I feel that Obama's "ground game" here in Indiana is really going to surprise a lot of pundits come Novemeber

Durhamite said... I'm a NC resident, and I'm just ...

2008-09-18T10:02:00.000-04:00

Durhamite said...
I'm a NC resident, and I'm just wondering what the heck is going on with our polls! They're all over the map!

I'm guessing here...

When a polling firm surveys Ohio, they know that Dayton is Liberal but Oakwood is Conservative. Ohio has been polled so many times that they could tell you down to the zip code how Liberal or Conservative a given location is. This makes it very easy to weight their sample, if they oversample from Liberal areas (no matter what party the people claim to be from). Alternatively, they can keep sampling until they get enough people from each representative area.

But normally, nobody bothers to survey North Carolina. So while they might know that the Research Triangle is Liberal overall, they don't know which parts are more liberal than others. So they can't weight the survey.

That's my guess.

Palin can suck my dick.

2008-09-18T09:19:00.000-04:00

Palin can suck my dick.

I'm a NC resident, and I'm just wondering what the...

2008-09-18T09:18:00.000-04:00

I'm a NC resident, and I'm just wondering what the heck is going on with our polls! They're all over the map!

couple of quick things, someone said europe is tur...

2008-09-18T08:55:00.000-04:00

couple of quick things, someone said europe is turning hard left- er nope Italy and France have both gone to the right and The UK will follow June 10.

The lose Ohio win the elction % I thought was low also, but I suppose all the simulations where BO loses PA and or MI he loses OH and if he loses either of those its probably over.

The importance of WWII saving the economy rather than the new deal is true, the new deal gave the strucutre to the economuy where it could flourish though. How about giving some perspective on Reagans importance in ending Communism though?

and last thing where are the really meaningful posts you get every day? You know the

wow look at all that red!!!

and JM convention bump day blah blah blah....

They seem to have disappeared. Couldnt resist that........

Oh can someone tell me where JM is on Climate Change please? - as a foriegner I couldnt caere less about BOs stupidity in lipstick gate or palin stupidity using a yahoo account to run her gvmt.

Yes I know we should all know where he is but with all the politics going on its hard to discern somoe real policy out there.

Lol, I just don't get people. What do you derive ...

2008-09-18T08:36:00.000-04:00

Lol, I just don't get people. What do you derive from stating moronically that Maine is going to go to McCain? It's as if you believe that you saying it will make it so.

Maine is turning McCain!! Pennsylvania for Palin!...

2008-09-18T08:30:00.000-04:00

Maine is turning McCain!! Pennsylvania for Palin!!

If you want, continue, I could write a script that...

2008-09-18T08:20:00.000-04:00

If you want, continue, I could write a script that would replace your posting. It'd save you a lot of time.

If a poll comes out that shows a tie or Obama lead in a state generally thought to be leaning McCain, it'll post:

"DREAM ON!! (XSTATE) IS GOING TO BE RED RED RED!!!!!"

and if the same thing happens in reverse, it'll post

"(XSTATE) IS IN PLAY!!!!!"

Here is my view right now of this election-Both pa...

2008-09-18T07:22:00.000-04:00

Here is my view right now of this election-

Both parties have nominated someone worthy of the presidency. This may not be a popular sentiment among partisans, but in McCain there is a war hero, with experience, and a kind of popular appeal that puts him as the nearest thing the GOP have had to Ronald Reagan since, well Ronald Reagan. The Democrats have chosen a charasmatic, transending, mould breaking candidate, that makes Barack Obama the nearest thing the Democrats have had to JFK since, well JFK. (RFK excepted maybe!)

So both candidates meet the could be President threshold, to a relatively similar degree. They both have enough about them that can be attacked in order to make sure that not many partisans are going to step over the aisle to vote for the other party. (McCain's dubious campaigning tactics, and attachement, however reluctant to the GOP brand, Obama's otherlyness and seeming elitism.)

So it all comes down to maybe 10-15% of the electorate and a few inpoderables. Is the youth vote going to turn out? How is Palin going to play out through the campaign? How will either candidate stand out in the debate? How will a disintegating economy effect the election? Is there an October surprise to come? If so how is that going to effect the campaign?

I still feel my mid April prediction of Obama by 10 points is not necesarily going to be far out. I don't feel that McCain can win by a similar margin (probably plus 4 is his limit) but I do think that almost any result in between could happen.

KEEP DREAMING.Indiana will go red by 8 points.

2008-09-18T06:40:00.000-04:00

KEEP DREAMING.
Indiana will go red by 8 points.

I never post this kind of stuff, but I thought thi...

2008-09-18T03:25:00.000-04:00

I never post this kind of stuff, but I thought this one was a bit funny. Politics can be so wierd:

"Let me see if I have this straight.....
* If you grow up in Hawaii and were raised by your grandparents, you're "exotic, different."
* Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, a quintessential American story.
* If your name is Barack you're a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.
* Name your kids Willow , Trig, and Track, you're a maverick.
* Graduate from Harvard law School and you are unstable.
* Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating, you're well grounded.
* If you spend 3 years as a community organizer, become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you don' t have any real leadership experience.
* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the governor of a state with onl y 650, 000 people, then you're qualified to become the country's second highest ranking executive and next in line behind a man in his eighth decade.
* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2 daughters, all within Protestant churches, you're not a real Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and then left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a true Christian.
* If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
* If, while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in your state's school system while your unwed teen daughter ends up pregnant, you're very responsible.
* If your wife is a Harvard graduate laywer who gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to raise a family, your family's values don't represent America's.
* If your husband is nicknamed "First Dude", with at least one DWI conviction and no college education, who didn't register to vote until age 25 and once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA, your family is extremely admirable.

OK, much clearer now.

Would you like to ban me, nicesocks?

2008-09-18T02:17:00.000-04:00

Would you like to ban me, nicesocks?

if only there was a way to limit comments to three...

2008-09-18T02:08:00.001-04:00

if only there was a way to limit comments to three or so a day per user.

it certainley seems the 80/20 is in effect here. 80% of the posts are made by 20% of the posters.

Selzer had Obama up by 8 in IN in April at odds wi...

2008-09-18T02:08:00.000-04:00

Selzer had Obama up by 8 in IN in April at odds with all other pollsters.

Selzer normally sticks to Iowa only, where it is very accurate but as Nate has pointed out, when Selzer does other states it is biased in favor of Democrats.

Even pro-Obama CNN had McCain up 6 in Indiana in today's polling.

McCain probably hopes Barack will waste a lot of money in IN like Barack plans to do in FL and NC.

jersey, godblessyou, you get it. smitty, you are...

2008-09-18T01:52:00.000-04:00

jersey, godblessyou, you get it. smitty, you are a rock star. & real mike, i apologise. i i love this dem ticket so much & want them to win. sometimes i get blinders re allies large as to allies small.

i will see all of you on the flipside, ...

Shes A Woman b side
I Feel Fine a side

I appreciate the spirit of anarchism if not the pr...

2008-09-18T01:40:00.000-04:00

I appreciate the spirit of anarchism if not the practice. An anarchist world running itself is a nice thought.

But it's likely unattainable, forever and ever. If you want to be pragmatic, that's probably the best place to start. There are two loci of power, government and the corporate private sector, and we're not going to progress much beyond that. Keep them balanced and we should all be okay. Not that it's easy.

The commentary is very good tonight. I've enjoyed ...

2008-09-18T01:31:00.000-04:00

The commentary is very good tonight. I've enjoyed reading everything.

As for all of the meltdown - we could simplify and say, "Government let us down."

They knew. I watched hearings on CSPAN in 2006. They all knew things were moving the wrong direction way back then.

Can't chat tonight. Aloha

@ Vince - Principles get sacrificed every day by b...

2008-09-18T01:29:00.000-04:00

@ Vince - Principles get sacrificed every day by both sides in Washington, or your state capital, or your town council. Neither side is very good at explaining itself when this happens. It provides excellent evidence as to the value of those principles by those politicians.

Bill P: "Also McCain strongly supported that parti...

2008-09-18T01:26:00.000-04:00

Bill P: "Also McCain strongly supported that particular piece of legislation.

Not that vince would ever mention that small detail, of course."

Vince1974: That's not the point.

I just...wow. Just wow.

Henry - Good for you for making that choice. We 5...

2008-09-18T01:21:00.000-04:00

Henry - Good for you for making that choice. We 538ers are all pretty aware of the liberal case for Barack Obama and the conservative case for John McCain.

I hear you bill p. but lets be honest. dems are ...

2008-09-18T01:17:00.000-04:00

I hear you bill p. but lets be honest. dems are more for government regulation, which in the short run defeats true local democracy, but in the long run support true local democracy.

eventually, all corporations will be majority-owned by the workers (like the GREEN BAY PACKERS!)

reps, who claim LESS REGULATION is better can only lead to corruption at this point in America, (i.e. see RIGHT NOW- MELTDOWN!)

More regulation leads to equality for workers v bosses (which flies in the face of anarchism) BUT leads to plurastic EQUALITY that should suggest the END of UNIONS.

Come on, that aint never gonna happen. I know that. I am a part of this unfair capitalistic world that knows that, bizarrely, the only way to achieve even the crumbs of a community-state, is by CURBING the STAUS-QUO Capitalist-State (thru heavy regulation.)

it is a catch-22.

i am having fun here. but Obama's gonna win, i think. & these kind of class discussions will vanish. that is okay w/ me. it is time to stop the real blood of iraquis, & afghans, & americans, & the 12 billion a month payment for an occupation of a country that shows an 80 billion surplus.

& your stock sucks?!

New Indiana Poll Obama +3 Obama 47, McCain 44. Fro...

2008-09-18T01:16:00.000-04:00

New Indiana Poll Obama +3 Obama 47, McCain 44. From Selzer.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE

"Also McCain strongly supported that particular pi...

2008-09-18T01:05:00.000-04:00

"Also McCain strongly supported that particular piece of legislation.

Not that vince would ever mention that small detail, of course."

That's not the point.. the point was Clinton, Shumer, Dodd etc.. compelled a lowering of standards for granting credit.

When it's written into the very law that permits Banks/Firms to enter new markets that ensuring the creditworthiness of loans takes a back seat to fullfilling some social engineering, then it's pretty hollow for those same people to cry about deregulation or lack of regulation.. they're the ones who blocked regulations.

Why McCain hasn't been prepared to talk about this really doesn't surprise me. Republicans were never good at combatting lies told about them and is one of the reason I'm conservative independant... the Republican party could never be relied upon to defend , advance and advocate for the principles it purports to hold.