Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 7/2

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2009-10-08T08:12:57.966-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:35:38.252-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:59:00.000-05:00

If at any given time you see evidence of a massive...

2008-07-04T06:25:00.000-04:00

If at any given time you see evidence of a massive tilt to Obama in a few big states while the national polls are showing a close race, you can bet that in the unpolled states the race favors the other candidate.

One thing that you can bet on is tht McCain supporters are stooopid.

"But he has altered positions. You have to be drin...

2008-07-04T06:21:00.000-04:00

"But he has altered positions. You have to be drinking the koolaid not to believe that. "

Yeah, sure, even though all the facts say otherwise. Your sort of certainty in the mantra is exactly why it is so widely believed.

I am a CT voter who canvassed for a candidate duri...

2008-07-03T14:04:00.000-04:00

I am a CT voter who canvassed for a candidate during the primaries and as a whole, am pretty involved. I will say that I am disgusted by Lieberman's current positioning and undermining of the Democratic candidate. While the incredibly narrow dem primary population did not stand by him, his election in the final senate race was largely by rank and file democrats who have always been supporters of his. However, I am seeing evidence here of that support eroding. You should hear people at work talking about his current actions. I don't really remember him being a topic of conversation previously, except for a "you voting for Lieberman"... "yep"... "me too" sort of way. Now I am actually a bit taken aback by how betrayed people seem to be. It also seems people who usually would not notice, because of lack of attention to the news, are noticing because of how high profile this campaign has been so far. Bad news for Lieberman. I know I won't vote for him again.

What about McCain being up by 8 in Florida and Geo...

2008-07-03T13:37:00.000-04:00

What about McCain being up by 8 in Florida and Georgia? No comment, Nate?

For Pete Kent and all the other people who think M...

2008-07-03T13:19:00.000-04:00

For Pete Kent and all the other people who think McCain must be doing better than 538 says in swing states if Obama is only up by 5 nationally but has huge margins in CA, NY, MA.

Those states are about 1/4 the population, so if he's up almost 20 points there (and has a +5 nationally), he basically is up zero on average in the rest of the country... so a close race? No, not really. It's an even race for the remaining states with Obama already locked in to 20% of the total EV.

With CA and NY removed in this hypothetical example states like Tx are now balancing states that used to be purple.

To Pete Kent,Your posts are filled with factual in...

2008-07-03T12:27:00.000-04:00

To Pete Kent,

Your posts are filled with factual inaccuracies and smears.

What Obama said about his grandmother was that even people you love may harbor objectionable views. I can't understand what's wrong with that.

On the death penalty: I'm reading his book, The Audacity of Hope. He stated that he favored the death penalty for child rapists in the book (2005). Not a flip. On
faith-based initiatives: he's always been in favor. Not my position, but it's always been his.
He's always been in favor of the right to own a gun. He said it in the primary, he said it again after the Supreme Court position.

BTW. McCain is not leading in OH, MI, CO.

Spike and Anonymouses:Spike, you clearly are not a...

2008-07-03T12:19:00.000-04:00

Spike and Anonymouses:

Spike, you clearly are not a math guy. And I am no teacher! Again, if you look at the race at a single point in time and at that time Obama has a 2% lead nationally, but is leading in all the big states that are polled by 20%, you have to wonder why is the race close at that time? The answer is because McCain has support elsewhere, in places that are not being polled. Otherwise the two results would be contradictory.

It has been historically said of elections in America that a 3% lead or so for the Democrats in the national poll represents a potential electoral defeat because they have traditonally wrung up huge margins in the big liberal states essentially wasting votes that would be better dispersed elsewhere (the midwest) to rack up an EV majority.

I am sorry if Anonymous does not like my bringing up the issues in the campaign, but it is issues and the perceptions of the candidates that moves the electorate and the polls. I am tyring to point out that Obama is getting harshly criticized for his about face on numerous issues that have traditionally been important to his base. This creates concern among those in the middle because they are still trying to figure him out. Opinions regarding McCain are much more solidly held and it takes more to move them, so he can afford a bit more flip flopping.

Obama must be like Caesar's wife: above suspicion. So far he is not succeeding.

If he cannot present himself in a way that appeals to the people and cannot get on the right side of the issues (gas and Iraq), he is done. The jury is out on who he really is. He is stubbornly refusing to articulate an energy policy that the people can understand, and events in Iraq have turned strategically against pulling the troops out while gas prices have made preserving access to some of the world's largest oil reserves an imperative.

I see Obama in a political quandry and I look to polls for confirmation.

Pete Kent,It's so funny how you blindly attack Oba...

2008-07-03T11:36:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent,

It's so funny how you blindly attack Obama with arguments that are far more applicable to McCain. Of course, you're aware of that, otherwise you wouldn't need to close your attack by making excuses for McCain.

Regardless, I still stand by my earlier statement that people come here for the facts. So, while I normally get a good chuckle out of watching people like you scrambling to assemble a hollow talking point, it's just not what I want to do at this site. So how about we take this a step above the silly gamesmanship, please?

Good news, Rasmussen has Obama 5 points ahead in M...

2008-07-03T11:23:00.000-04:00

Good news, Rasmussen has Obama 5 points ahead in Montana.
Don't get too stressed about the 5 points Obama leads nationally.

In reality Obama's national leed may be higher thean the MSM is reporting.

Again just look at the IntraMarkets (they're always on target)these give Oabam a 65% porbability of winning the general elections.

Have a glass of wine mates.

Pete, I am by no means the math guy that many othe...

2008-07-03T11:19:00.000-04:00

Pete, I am by no means the math guy that many others on this sitge are, maybe even yourself, b ut this

If at any given time you see evidence of a massive tilt to Obama in a few big states while the national polls are showing a close race, you can bet that in the unpolled states the race favors the other candidate.

is a logical fallacy. If Obama moves up, let's say 10 points in NY (a MASSIVE shift), how much impact do you think that has on the difference nationally? My quick and dirty calculation - NY is 20m, US is 300m. NY is 6.6% of the population. 10% x 6.6% is .66% impact on the national poll from a colossal shift that is exactly captured in some national tracking poll. Your statement just doesn't add up

Pete Kent,Dennis Kucinich is an extreme liberal. B...

2008-07-03T11:18:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent,

Dennis Kucinich is an extreme liberal. Barack Obama is not.

One of the things I like about him is the expectation that we will be part of the change, he expects WE THE PEOPLE to stay involved through the government website upgrades, the 'fireside' Internet chats and our well developed keyboard musket activism. Pair this with his relative inexperience and you get someone who is not so over confident (or insecure) that he will act on his own ideas before he takes plenty of others into account.

Which brings me to the difference between Hillary and Obama on health care. It isn't so much the actual programs, which are meaningless. It is the thinking behind them. Obama knows a single payor system is the way to go. He has stayed with the insurance companies because 99.95% of DC is convinced we can't get rid of them. What we will get to do is convince him that even if we only start working towards the single payor, it is ok as long as we keep making significant changes that will ultimately establish that as our way of paying for health care in America.

Just because some ususally intelligent, well informed people still don't get this:

Single Payor is NOT socialized medicine. I have no idea how small a percentage is advocating that, probably about = to the number who want alternative medicine only. Single payor has a large % of advocates. Including 59% of doctors.

Just to rub some salt in here. We do have socialized medicine in the US. The military and the VA are truly socialized medicine. Want to bet who has the best cost and the best care of the socialized, non profit, and for profit providers?

I would love to see some polls on this. Need more education first. Just got the hard copy of a presentation at Denver Health Medical Center (the old Denver General, regional Level One hospital for a lot of the states around here) by an ED physician.

"The Perfect Storm"
The Current Crisis State of US Health Care.
Vince Markovchick MD
Director of Emergency Medicine, DHMC
Professor of Surgery, Division of Emergency Medicine.
University of Colorado.

You want stupid? Every year, at least 18,000 people die from lack of health insurance. That's 123,000 +/-, since 9/11/01.

Speaking of stupid, I work nights (critical care RN) and it's bedtime. Sorry if you have some comments/questions. Maybe I'll get back before work tonight.

Ginny in CO

In reply to Spike and anonymous (839).The point ab...

2008-07-03T09:59:00.000-04:00

In reply to Spike and anonymous (839).

The point about vote dispersion speaks of what is going on at a moment in time. If at any given time you see evidence of a massive tilt to Obama in a few big states while the national polls are showing a close race, you can bet that in the unpolled states the race favors the other candidate. After all if Obama is racking up pluralities of millions of votes in NY, CA, MA, NJ, IL but only has a few point lead in the national polls, then McCain must be attracting support somewhere. because we don't poll all 50 states at one time it is hard to say, but my suspicion is that things are more favorable to McCain in places like OH, IN, MI and even PA than many of you may suppose.

I do not deny that Obama is an extreme liberal. Indeed he ran as one in the democratic primaries. He is banking on the fact that only the political junkies were listening and that in the general election he can try and change his identity.

It is that chameleon like character that has Arianna Huiffington up in arms and Katrina Vandenheuval in tears! As the far left wing stokes these fires in order to bring the creature they created to heel, they will arouse suspicion in all quarters about Obama's bona fides.

McCain has reacted to shifts in both the electorate (immigration) and conditions (drilling and taxes). Obama is holding fast to his environemntal priciples and on taxes he is virtually indistiguishable from Bush in that he would only raise taxes on people amking kore than $250,000 - -a tiny sliver of the population. Like the difference between him and Hillary on healthcare it is meaningless.

Pete Kent,I suppose I should have figured it out b...

2008-07-03T09:45:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent,

I suppose I should have figured it out before. The attempts to paint Obama as an extreme liberal were just a prelude to this whole flip-flop thing. The problem is that your first volley never hit the mark. So, now just look confused by changing your talking points so quickly.

Look, I get the fact the the Republicans selected the least objectionable candidate in a weak field. I appreciate that McCain has had to flip-flop on everything in order to appease the hard right--well after the end of the primaries. So, I understand that you don't have a lot to work with, and the best you can do is pretend that Obama is somehow as bad as McCain. I think everyone here gets that it's the only option available. So really, is all that posturing necessary here? Can't we forgo the contrived and absurd party lines and stick to the facts here?

"This tells me that Obama has a problem with his v...

2008-07-03T09:39:00.000-04:00

"This tells me that Obama has a problem with his vote dispersion. Again wasting votes in his strongholds and having fewer to spread around in the battlegrounds."

Comedy gold, Peter. So there's this fixed amount of votes for a candidate out there, and each one you get in one place is one you don't get somewhere else. Got it.

Nate,I am not surprised by these polls and your se...

2008-07-03T09:13:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I am not surprised by these polls and your sense of relief is palpable. Two observations:

One they were taken too early to measure any impact on Obama's swing to the center. Expect to see that in state polls that bear dates say between 7/2 and 7/8 when the story has percolated further.

Two: Obama is piling up big leads in those traditional liberal states, yet remains virtually within the margin of error in the two most credible national polls. This tells me that Obama has a problem with his vote dispersion. Again wasting votes in his strongholds and having fewer to spread around in the battlegrounds. McCain by contrast seems to have more even support, with safe (but not overwhelming) leads in his base states and with votes to spare for places like OH, FL, MI, NV, CO, etc.

Bear also in mind that all of us here are political junkies, so we absorb news must faster than 95% of the electorate. For the average voter the narrative on Obama is absorbed in fits and starts and whiffs. The notion of him lacking essential honesty in his positions and his shifting core will contribute to a perception, already slightly rooted that he is not to be trusted, but it will take time.

Once he adopts the McCain/Bush position on Iraq -- maintain the troops and preserve Iraqi security and oil, as he must do, if he is to have any credibility as a leader -- then all of his about faces (on FISA, on Guns, on the Death Penalty, on Faith Based Initiatives, On Trinity United Church, On his Grandmother) will come to the fore and an overwhelming perception will become manifest that he has not been honest and is just saying what he needs to say to be elected.

This coupled with his lack of experience, which he has cleverly tried to make into an asset, will doom his candidacy.

From yesterday's poll from realclearpolitics.com:F...

2008-07-03T09:01:00.000-04:00

From yesterday's poll from realclearpolitics.com:

Florida: McCain vs. Obama Strategic Vision (R) McCain 49, Obama 41 McCain +8.0

how come this poll isn't mentioned? It's one of the worst for obama for florida so far...

I can't believe so many people are falling for thi...

2008-07-03T08:19:00.000-04:00

I can't believe so many people are falling for this whole "tack to the center" meme. I guess it's just an example of how effective the GOP has been at portraying Obama as an extreme liberal. However, if you'd followed Obama's career long term you'd realize that he's always been a pragmatic idealist and that his positions are actually fairly consistent.

On FISA, he argued against the immunity provision, but his biggest sticking point was due process and oversight. The amended bill has that, so that's why he's willing to accept the imperfect compromise. On the second amendment decision he's taking a pretty similar position to the gun control lobby, which is that they're happy that the most conservative members of the court acknowledged the right of the community to make laws regulating gun ownership and use. So, he's emphasizing the positive aspect of the decision. I'll admit, that's a bit of a shift in emphasis, but nothing drastic.

On the faith based initiatives, Obama hasn't changed his position at all. His proposal is entirely in keeping with his arguing for Democrats to engage religious voters and his history of working with community and religious groups in fair and pragmatic ways.

On campaign finance, I agree that Obama's opting out of the system is a shift from his past positions to some degree. However, he's been working toward reform of the system for a while, and placed very explicit terms on his pledge to take public funds. Given how the McCain campaign grows increasingly Rovian in their approach, I can't see that he had much choice. He could have done what McCain's doing, and set up a combined fund allowing massive donations (up to $70k per donor for McCain). He could claim that the 527s were not his responsibility, just like McCain did. However, I appreciate that he's actually being straight about it, and not sticking to the letter of the law on public funds while completely undermining the intent of it in practice.

Finally, on the death penalty issue, most people may not understand that Obama made his name for himself in the Illinois legislature by pushing through bipartisan legislation that reinstated the death penalty by reforming how confessions and other procedural aspects were handled. He's always supported the death penalty for particularly heinous crimes, and never claimed that those crimes were limited to murder. It may not be the common liberal position, but it's always been Obama's position.

So, as an Illinois resident who's been following Obama's career for quite some time, I'm entirely comfortable with the decisions he's making and don't see it as a dash to the center. If anything, I see this as the media focusing their harshest criticism on the front runner in order to keep the race interesting. After all, McCain's been flipping like an acrobat, but he's not getting anywhere near as much attention for it.

We haven't had an NV poll for two weeks now, and I...

2008-07-03T06:51:00.000-04:00

We haven't had an NV poll for two weeks now, and I bet if we had Obama would gain another three points there, making it even. Not exactly taking off, but decent for having lost their primary and for the state that borders and has similarities with Arizona, McCain's home state.

Also, Las Vegas supports a lot of the population, but that population is somewhat spread out once you discount tourists, so it's not exactly a liberal urban center. Also, just as is usual, the wealthy in high-population areas are disproportionately conservative as are the spread out white poor, and this is roughly how vegas is constructed, with the poor workers bussing in and then gambling away a lot of their paycheck before bussing out. That all is not even to mention that Nevada is relatively apolitical (largely due to it's rapidly changing population) so it's difficult to get momuntum there.

Can't understand why Obama can't take off in Nevad...

2008-07-03T01:57:00.000-04:00

Can't understand why Obama can't take off in Nevada.

Doesn't Las Vegas represent something like 50% of the state's population? How is it possible that the GOP is so strong there?

It seems to me that Obama is making more and more ...

2008-07-03T01:09:00.000-04:00

It seems to me that Obama is making more and more states turn as time goes on. Early on he added NM, CO, IA, and OH to the map (after suring up MI after not campaigning) It took a little why for OH, and all the while he sured up the other states. Then all of a sudden VA, IN, NV, and MO are new swing states along with FL. VA and IN have steadily become more and more Obama states, but FL MO and NV are the new elusive states. It will be interesting if they can switch. And if so which states would be next? GA, NC, ND, MT, AK???? We shall see....

LIEberman...(sp).

2008-07-03T00:57:00.000-04:00

LIEberman...(sp).

+30 in NY is completely consistent with +5 nationa...

2008-07-03T00:56:00.000-04:00

+30 in NY is completely consistent with +5 nationally, seeing that Gore (+0.5 nationally) was +25 in NY.