Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended

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2009-10-02T04:56:23.489-04:00

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2009-04-16T03:24:00.000-04:00

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I appreciated the detail that you put into these r...

2008-12-10T15:48:00.000-05:00

I appreciated the detail that you put into these rankings. I'm still not completely finished reviewing them, but it was definitely thought-provoking material to read.

Sebelius would be a great voice for the Mountain West/Plain states, and I'm particularly biased because of her Ohio roots. When my dreams of an Edwards presidency had not been shattered, I hoped to see her as a potential VP choice.

As an Ohio Democrat, I am not completely against Voinivich as a U.S. Senator. While I do not always agree with all of his positions, he has been quite admirable in his positions on the war and care of the troops. If I had to pick a dream candidate to run against him it would be Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown/Warren.) I think that Portman and Dewine would have a greater chance of running for governor against an incumbent Strickland (but I'd rather see Ted win a 2nd term!)

I'd like to see the math on the following addition...

2008-12-10T12:48:00.000-05:00

I'd like to see the math on the following additions to the chart:
PA - Rendell and Matthews as specific challengers
OH - Kucinich being in the primary mix for the Dem nomination
KY - Lunsford trying again
MO - Gephardt will be the Dem nominee since he's the only high-up Dem not in the cabinet
NC - Easley will run against Burr (also not offered a cabinet post)
IA - Bump up the Grassley retirement %. I was with him on election night 2006 - he got his grandson into the IA state leg, but he was very bummed out about being in a minority. If it starts to look like another Dem year int he Senate, he'll anounce he's not running again. Vilsack will be the Dem nominee as he bowed out of the prez race after talking with Clinton and Obama - before the IA Caucus, even. No cabinet post for him, either, not even vetted by either of the two. Not even for Ag Sec? Must mean they convinced him to run in 2010. Braley is not commenting, but would most likely fall in line if Vilsack announced, from what I know from talking to him recently.
NH - Lynch may run?
CO - Figure Schaeffer if the GOP nom
IL - This state needs a whole new re-figuring after the Blago crap is figured out
TX - Hutchison may yet decide to run for prez in 2012, so I'd leave this state out of scrutiny for now
AZ - McCain is not retiring unless he dies, so bump up his %
NY - Paterson may make a different decision due to IL going haywire. Any chance he'll parachute himself over to Senate and put Cuomo into the Gov's mansion through some shuffling? Just wondering.
OK - I see no reason for a Henry/Coburn matchup to not happen. Whom else can the Dems run?
WI - No way Ryan gives up in an environment where any vacant seat can be snatched up by the Dem money/volunteer machine.
HI - More interesting is whom do the Dems nominate to take over post-Lingle?
AK - Tony Knowles again?
GA - Martin can beat Isakson, easy
LA - Vitter should quit and have his seat handed to Kennedy by Jindal, no reason not to parachute
VT - what chance Dean wants his old job back and is quitting the DNC now to do just that? Doesn't that keep Douglas home in the Gov race, thereby freeing Leahy?
SD - Add Daschle as a possibility
14 vulnerable republicans by my count to 2 vulnerable Dems - IL, CO
Dems may gain 7-8 and GOP may gain 0-1, making a 2/3rds supermajority possible. Not in the House, but at least in the Senate. That should be their goal, anyway. (Assuming an eventual Franken win in MN.)
-Jeff

Re Kansas: Moran is no shoo in to get the GOP nom...

2008-12-09T16:45:00.000-05:00

Re Kansas: Moran is no shoo in to get the GOP nomination, as walking haircut and RWNJ Todd Tiahrt has announced he wants it as well. My guess is that Moran will be the one to lose this game of chicken, but even if it goes to a primary, a little Republican bloodletting would not hurt Sebelius' chance of getting the seat.

Drew posted:"Remember, this guy [Giuliani] was ran...

2008-12-09T05:19:00.000-05:00

Drew posted:

"Remember, this guy [Giuliani] was ranked #1 on the list of 50 Most Loathsome New Yorkers in 2004."

I didn't know that. In what publication?

The problem for the Dems when it comes to the Voin...

2008-12-09T05:15:00.000-05:00

The problem for the Dems when it comes to the Voinovich seat is who they run.

Ted Strickland makes a ton of sense, but does he want to give up the governor's mansion to head back to Washington? (Given the economy in Ohio and the crushing layoffs to come, maybe he does.) Jerry Springer has zero chance whatsoever of winning. Tim Ryan and Michael Coleman have very little statewide name recognition.

The Ohio Dems' best hope (apart from Strickland) seems to be to run a generic Democrat (Ryan?) and hope the "D" next to his name gets the job done.

@jurisThe linkage between the Baltic languages (es...

2008-12-09T01:45:00.000-05:00

@juris

The linkage between the Baltic languages (esp. Latvian and Lithuanian) and Slavic, while there, are very weak. The two groups probably diverged more than 3000 years ago and they are almost certainly not mutually intelligible. Even Latvian (also called Lettish) and Lithuanian are not mutally intelligible.

My father's family came to this country from Latvia, having lived in what was then Libau and is now called Liepaja. They were, however, not ethnically Lettish. My great-uncle's brother-in-law, who was a member of the first Latvian parliament in 1919, survived WWII and the Holocaust and became a member of the first Israeli Knesset. Interesting historical distinction.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_language

wv=mershyca
a kingdom in some sci-fi/fantasy trilogy.

Safe SeatsAlabama-(Shelby-R) if Shelby runs again....

2008-12-09T00:15:00.000-05:00

Safe Seats
Alabama-(Shelby-R) if Shelby runs again.
Connecticut(Dodd-D)
Delaware(OPEN-Kaufman-D).
Georgia(Isakson-R)
Hawaii(Inouye-D)-if Inouye runs again.
Idaho(Crapo-R)
Indiana(Bayh-D)
Iowa(Grassley-R)-If Grassley runs again.
Maryland(Mikulski-D)If Mikulski runs again.
New York(Schumer-D)
North Dakota(Dorgan-D)
Oregon(Wyden-D)
Utah(Bennett-R)-if Bennett runs again.
Vermont(Leahy-D)-

Likely Incumbent
Alaska(Murkowski-R)
Arizona(McCain-R)if McCain is the GOP nominee.
Arkansas(Lincoln-D)
California(Boxer-D)
Colorado(Salazar-D)
Illinios(VACANT-Obama)
New York(VACANT-Clinton)
Oklahoma(Coburn-R)
South Carolina(DeMint-R)
South Dakota(Thune-R)
Utah(if Bennett retires-R)
Washington(Murray-D)
Wisconsin(Feingold-D)

Leans Incumbent
Alabama(if Shelby-R retires)
Florida(Bush-R vs Generic DEM)
Hawaii(if Inouye-D retires)
Kansas(Generic DEM vs Generic REP)
Louisiana(Vitter-R)
Nevada(Reid-D)
New Hampshire(Gregg-R)

Tossup.
Florida(Bush-R vs Sink-D)
Kansas(Moran-R vs Sebelius-D)
Missouri if (Bond-R)runs again.
North Carolina(Burr-R)
Ohio if (Voinovich-R)runs again.
Pennsylvania if (Specter-R)runs again.

Leans Takeover
Arizona(OPEN Seat)
Florida(Sink-D vs Generic REP)
Iowa(OPEN Seat)
Kansas(Sebelius-D vs Tiahrt-R)
Kentucky(Bunning-R)
Missouri(OPEN Seat)
Ohio(OPEN Seat)
Pennsylvania(OPEN Seat)

KY should be ranked number 1.
Bunning should be the most vulnerable incumbent looking at his narrow victories in 1998 and 2004 and his old age and extreme ideology. A Bunning's lose is similar to Santorum(extreme ideology), Burns(Old),and Allen(Controversial).
NC (Burr's vulnerablility is due to the anger of the General GOP party)- A Burr's lose is similar to

As a Washingtonian, I speak from experience when I...

2008-12-08T22:54:00.000-05:00

As a Washingtonian, I speak from experience when I say Patty Murray is totally safe. Though Republicans have a rising star in Attorney General Rob McKenna, he will probably seek the Governor's seat at some point as his predecessors have done.

Considering your penchant for nuance and complexit...

2008-12-08T21:16:00.000-05:00

Considering your penchant for nuance and complexity, I'm surprised you engaged the Kansas question so simply.

The past two gubernatorial elections were Democratic victories, but they were surprisingly uncompetitive because the Republicans ran two candidates in the general election, a moderate and a conservative. If it happens again, which is always a possibility because the base is still conservative and the state gov. establishment is still moderate, I think the generic Democrat (Dennis Moore, anyone? Parkinson is not the only viable possibility) has a realistic chance.

In the Senate, the Republicans could also split. Both Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, the likely primary competitors, have built-in advantages. Moran has a massive district, so he has more recognition throughout the state, but Tiahrt has Wichita (the biggest city in the state) and an impressively influential legislative history. If after one of the two wins, the other runs against him in the general election, Sebelius will almost assuredly win. If not, I think it will be a very competitive race, and I can't wait to contribute.

I'd give him even less than that Michael. The Dem...

2008-12-08T19:52:00.000-05:00

I'd give him even less than that Michael. The Democrats would have to put up an absolutely horrendous candidate for Giuliani to have any realistic shot at taking this seat. It is almost unbelievable how a man who is generally considered to have been a fairly successful Mayor can be so reviled at the same time. I don't remember the last time I heard something positive said about Giuliani here in NY by any friend, family member, or acquaintance (cab drivers, college classmates, etc). Remember, this guy was ranked #1 on the list of 50 Most Loathsome New Yorkers in 2004.

As a New Yorker, I doubt that Giuliani has a 40% c...

2008-12-08T19:13:00.000-05:00

As a New Yorker, I doubt that Giuliani has a 40% chance of winning a statewide election against a generic Democrat. He was a very divisive mayor who, though being given credit by loads of people for lowering crime, was hated by lots of New Yorkers until 9/11. I think you'll find that lots of New Yorkers are, on balance, glad he was Mayor at the time but consider him an asshole and won't vote for him for any other office. 2001 is receding ever further into memory, but Giuliani ran a terrible, hard-right campaign for President this year. In addition, a layer of sleaze has gathered around him since his Mayoralty, given the legal troubles of the unaccountably not vetted Bernard Kerik, and the fact that Giuliani moved official documents from his terms of office through a private foundation just before he left office (look here) adds to a general aura of shadiness that also encompasses his personal life. Add to everything else the fact that New York State is turning bluer, given the changeover of the State Senate. I'd give Giuliani maybe 30% against a generic Democrat. He could "win" a debate but be so much of an asshole that people vote against him.

Nate,You indicate in the comments that Jackson wou...

2008-12-08T19:10:00.000-05:00

Nate,

You indicate in the comments that Jackson would be more vulnerable than other choices. But then you give a generic R 30% chance against generic D but only a 10% against others.

Perhaps the math error BlackGriffen referred to wasn't a math error at all, but a typographical error caused by you switching the probabilities.

Nate said: You should not regard the numbers as be...

2008-12-08T18:14:00.000-05:00

Nate said: You should not regard the numbers as being especially precise or meaningful; they are ballpark estimates, a codification of my subjective knowledge.
Why, then, are you reporting numbers with such precision? Saying that the republicans have an 11.3% chance of picking up a California senate seat when 11.3 is just the output of an equation whose inputs are all ballpark estimates is terribly misleading.

Your conditional probabilities are off in Illinois...

2008-12-08T18:10:00.000-05:00

Your conditional probabilities are off in Illinois.

My long-term predictions:

2010: small Democratic gain in the Senate, bringing them to 60+, as Nate predicts. Small Republican gains in the House.

2012: the Obama effect holds off what would otherwise be a poor Democratic performance. Incumbents win the day, although Lieberman loses in a primary.

2014: Republicans make significant gains in both chambers.

Looking at this data from a Utahn's perspective, t...

2008-12-08T17:51:00.000-05:00

Looking at this data from a Utahn's perspective, there's one scenario that seems (vaguely) possible.

Jim Matheson is a very popular Representative - however, in 2010 there will be a census, and Utah will pick up at least one (maybe two) seats in the House. The republican legislature in Utah will divide Matheson's semi-liberal district yet again, and hope to gerrymander him out of the House.

This gives Matheson a possible incentive to run for the Senate seat, esp. if Bennett retires. I'm not saying the seat will switch, it just seems like the only scenario where it would.

Lastly though, senate run or no, the impending redistricting would seem to suggest that Matheson is going to start tacking right quickly.

Nate, Barack Obama not being on the North Carolin...

2008-12-08T17:42:00.000-05:00

Nate,

Barack Obama not being on the North Carolina ballot in 2010 might not matter as much as you think. Kay Hagan outpolled both Bev Perdue and Barack Obama last month.

WaywardSon, I just don't think Mike Easley is the most popular statewide Democrat down here. He's about to leave office with a multibillion dollar deficit, the way his government has run the mental health care system is a joke, his wife has a very fishy contract with NC State, and the road project between Durham and Raleigh that required a complete repave didn't go over well.

Roy Cooper, who managed to fix the Mike Nifong mess in the Duke lacrosse investigation, would be my guess at the statewide Dem with the best chance to beat Burr. I have heard Heath Shuler has an interest in leaving the 11th District House seat to run for Senate as well.

Nate - if you think the odds of a Democratic picku...

2008-12-08T17:23:00.000-05:00

Nate - if you think the odds of a Democratic pickup in Idaho are 0.01%, you are overly optimistic. The odds of a Democratic pickup in Idaho are zero.