Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Saxby Shows Republicans The Way Forward?

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2009-04-16T03:36:00.000-04:00

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The Republicans can't grow up so long as they repr...

2008-12-05T21:48:00.000-05:00

The Republicans can't grow up so long as they represent fundies.

The idea that 2010 will be a "grown up affair" is beyond silly. Remember when people said that about 2008?

Well, you're part right. Saxby did show the GOP t...

2008-12-05T15:21:00.000-05:00

Well, you're part right.

Saxby did show the GOP the way forward...

Namely, the way to win is to ensure your general election race does not coincide with Barack Obama being on the ballot.

For that reason, 2010 will probably be a much better year to run as a Republican than 2012, when Obama will presumably be seeking reelection.

Fortunately for the GOP, the disastrous 2006 election took most of their competitive seats away already...so they won't have much to lose in 2012.

Insulting honest decent American war heroes who le...

2008-12-04T15:13:00.000-05:00

Insulting honest decent American war heroes who left their limbs on foreign battlefields certainly is the Republican Way but I'm not sure their way will take them much of anywhere foward in this country.

You hope the 2010 election is a "grown-up" affair,...

2008-12-04T09:51:00.000-05:00

You hope the 2010 election is a "grown-up" affair, and then proceed to call Republicans "assholes?" Good start.

I don't see the outcome of this election as eviden...

2008-12-03T22:25:00.000-05:00

I don't see the outcome of this election as evidence of a way forward for the GOP. Chambliss was supposed to win. Given the turnout, the margin really doesn't matter much.

Bully, for you, in fact!Your Senate predictions ha...

2008-12-03T22:22:00.000-05:00

Bully, for you, in fact!

Your Senate predictions had the 50% probability line midway between 58 and 59 Senate seats.

So now Democrats have 58 plus a pending recount.

Bullseye.

I'm a late middle-aged white male who voted enthus...

2008-12-03T21:14:00.000-05:00

I'm a late middle-aged white male who voted enthusiastically for Obama in November. I was so turned off by a barrage of robocalls over the past week that I refused to vote at all this time.

I'm no fan of Saxby (especially after his disgusting hatchet job against a true patriot, Max Cleland last time around), but Martin was dull as dust, and deserved to lose. This result was less symptomatic of a GOP resurgence than of a lackluster Democratic candidate in a very red state.

Porridge Gun said:Including groping his grandaught...

2008-12-03T21:07:00.000-05:00

Porridge Gun said:

Including groping his grandaughter's tit. Good 'ole Republican family values.

Yup, that girl was about 2 years past the age of "sittin' on granpa's knee."

This is Nate's site. He has never, for a moment, c...

2008-12-03T19:03:00.000-05:00

This is Nate's site. He has never, for a moment, cast any aspersions about whom he roots for or his personal perspective. The numeric analysis is objective. The non-numeric analysis isn't. This has been clear from the beginning.

And frankly, if you don't like it, no one is compelling you to visit here. Feel free to armchair market elsewhere.

As for Chambliss/Martin, understand, once again, that Georgia is a fools errand for Democrats. In addition to having a significant rural and exurban population, it has a large number of landed, urban, "southern" gentry that you simply cannot out emigrate, no matter how many gays and African Americans move into metro Atlanta, unlike Virginia and North Carolina. It is what it is, and gnashing teeth about a Democratic loss in a statewide race is a waste of time.

"jdizzle said... Cugel, I’m not sure how this w...

2008-12-03T18:32:00.000-05:00

"jdizzle said...

Cugel, I’m not sure how this was a racist vote. If there was a date when racist voters would have turned out in droves, it would have been on November 4th to vote against the guy that was actually black. And it’s not as if Chambliss actually got more votes this time around, it’s that he got a wider margin because LESS Martin supporters showed up.

And do you really think right-wingers are going to not criticize Obama just because he hasn't had any power to do anything yet? Did you miss the entire election?"

Racist white voters in GA DID show up on November 4! That's my point! The only reason the election wasn't a 20 point McCain win was the unprecedented black turnout in GA. There was an equally large White racist turnout for Republicans.

And it's racist because it's directly focused on fighting back against black mobilization. It's formed of whites who are uncomfortable with blacks having political power. That's the very definition of a "backlash."

This is not something new!

The vast majority of that strong White support for Republicans comes from the South.

The South used to be the "solid south" for DEMOCRATS, until 1968, the first Presidential election after Lyndon Johnson passed the voting rights act.

Nixon pioneered the "Southern strategy" taking advantage of White Southern resentment over civil rights, and Republicans have won the overwhelming majority of Southern states ever since.

In this election there were outright racist appeals: "Don't let Atlanta blacks steal this election."

It was a forthright appeal to conservative rural whites to come together to resist the unprecedented mobilization of blacks during the election.

That's a racist backlash! Don't tell me Martin was such a horrible candidate that he couldn't get more than 23% of the White vote? Was he really worse than other Democratic candidates?

Or was he swamped by right-wing anger at all the uppity Blacks "taking over."

@coolstar: Sam Wang? You've got to be kidding. H...

2008-12-03T17:33:00.000-05:00

@coolstar: Sam Wang? You've got to be kidding. He kept retrofitting and his prediction to the already tknown results! Before the election his model predicted 352 electoral votes (Nate predicted 353); Wang's website now says his "prediction" was 364. That didn't come from his model, but rather from his gut.

The guy wants (his model) to be a "winner" so he presents a fuzzy fact on front page that does not actually some from his model!

I respected Wang before he did that little bit of b.s.

The need to have 60 Democrats in the Senate was mo...

2008-12-03T17:08:00.000-05:00

The need to have 60 Democrats in the Senate was more of a media story than a political necessity. There are at least 4 moderate Republicans who would never support the blocking of a major legislative initiative.

The strong arming by the white house is gone and the last 2 elections demonstrated that voters will not tolerate obstructionists. The Republicans do not have the gall or desire to take the risk.

57 US Senators, plus the moderates, plus Senate Republicans who are no longer certain of their future will dare not employ a fillibuster.

The Chambliss election was not seen as critical by the Democrats who gave Georgia a shot but hardly an all out attempt. The people of Georgia are getting the kind of representation they desire and they have to live with that. I don't care for his stance on issues or the way he has campaigned particularly against Max Clelland.

Georgia is still a red state. While some Democrat...

2008-12-03T16:13:00.000-05:00

Georgia is still a red state. While some Democrats may have thought we had a chance, deep down, the vast majority of folks here (from either party or no party) must have expected this result.

I am sure many Democrats skipped the runoff, thinking it would not matter in the end, and I am sure many Republicans made a point of voting, to try to regain some feeling of power after Nov. 4th. These things may explain the breadth of the loss, but it would have been a loss anyway.

Jim Martin is a very good man and public servant, but it is hard to imagine how he or any other Democrat could have won in Georgia today. We'll see what the future holds....

Obama has proven to be a good learner in the past ...

2008-12-03T15:43:00.000-05:00

Obama has proven to be a good learner in the past after he suffered several electoral defeats in the primaries and setbacks along the active campaign.

He has to translate this into voting for his associates and not just him as his name will not appear on the 2010 ballot.

I suppose a significant economic improvement will halp soften t he anticipated mid-term rebound the other way which normally happens.

I wish they hads been able to put up a better fight in GA or wish Martin had lost outright Nov 4 so the 15 point plus difference would not have appeared.

I'm not sure that the Democrats need to engage in ...

2008-12-03T15:38:00.001-05:00

I'm not sure that the Democrats need to engage in too much navel-gazing in the wake of Martin's loss.

The cards were stacked strongly against Martin right away. He lost by 3% on November 4th, with a huge AA surge at the polls. No one, even Obama, was going to get all of those voters back to cast their ballot for Martin. Even if you were to give Martin all of Allen Buckley's votes on Nov 4, which would be silly, he barely beats Chambliss. Add to that any significant decline in AA turnout, and Martin loses.

Then there's the conservative backlash against the Obama victory in recent weeks. I don't know what the turnout was like compared to what was projected, but my guess is that casting a vote for Chambliss in the runoff was a way for Georgia conservatives to kick the dog in the wake of Obama's win.

I like Martin, but he really had nothing up his sleeve to overcome these odds in what is a solidly red state. One of the challenges in the coming years for the Democrats is to figure out how to bring southern AA to the polls consistently. They should have their eye on 2010 and developing a candidate who can beat Johnny Isakson, who may be very vulnerable. It will require bringing up a candidate that looks to be something more than typical Democratic cannon fodder.

Well, Jdizzle and tennessiene (go Big Orange!) hav...

2008-12-03T15:38:00.000-05:00

Well, Jdizzle and tennessiene (go Big Orange!) have it about right. His analysis of the GA Senate race is right on: anyone with the slightest amount of political intuition saw this butt-whipping coming. Of course, Nate and Sean DID NOT see it coming! as most of their posts played to how Martin might actually win, etc. etc. Jdizzle is certainly right that in order to keep the revenue stream going, Nate HAS to play pundit, even if he's not very good at it (see his absurd post on Hillary and the SOS job for more evidence). He HAS to gin up ridiculous "models" like he has for the MN recount if he wants to retain his status among the fanboys. Bottom line, Nate Silver is an above average statistical technician. His electoral projection was good, just slightly better than RCP and Pollster.com and just slightly worse than Sam Wang with the PEC. (there's actually no statistical difference between ANY of the above, as all their predictions fell well within their respective errors (though only the PEC had the intellectual integrity to post those errors)). It's his lack of intuition, both political and statistical, that I find most troubling. He doesn't see that the dataset for this presidential election was so robust that much simpler models than his gave the same result. (of course, his model is not that complicated; any smart sophomore physics major could do as well). He doesn't really seem to believe, in his GUT, that "correlation does not imply causality". Perhaps that's because his livelihood depends on finding correlations before others and then getting them to believe that those correlations ARE causal. Of course, he's young, and it's possible he'll develop that intuition with time. Unfortunately, I tend to doubt that will be the case. REALLY smart people (Fermi, Feynman, Witton come quickly to mind) HAD that intuition at his age. REALLY smart people test themselves against other really smart people (in grad school, for example). Bottom line, if you want political intuition, listen to and read Lawrence McDonnell (among others); if you want physical and statistical intuition, check out Sam Wang at the PEC.

You're over-thinking this one, guys. The final mar...

2008-12-03T15:21:00.000-05:00

You're over-thinking this one, guys. The final margin is well within the realm of what can be explained by lower African-American turnout and generally lower interest among Dems v higher interest amongst scared Reps. this hardly indicates a trend. Bottom line: Georgia is a very conservative place and Obama coming close(-ish) in November is a one-off due to high enthusiasm in the base and among African-Americans. Shameless Chambliss winning this is just back to the norm for Georgia and is exactly what any neutral observer would have expected.

If Martin didn't win the GE, he wasn't going to wi...

2008-12-03T15:04:00.000-05:00

If Martin didn't win the GE, he wasn't going to win the runoff. Maybe he simply wasn't a compelling candidate.

For an incumbent, Chambliss had a healthy scare. If he ran a milder campaign as a result, then that's progress.

Next time, the demographics might be friendlier for a Dem. candidate. Right now, the bodies aren't there.

Also, some people need to stop assuming black people will always massively, blindly, turnout and vote for Democratic candidates like zombies. It's offensive and silly. We can choose not to vote also.

vw: romatime - awesome!

Nate/Sean, I'm new to this blog so I'll stay out o...

2008-12-03T14:52:00.000-05:00

Nate/Sean, I'm new to this blog so I'll stay out of the renaming discussion, but it does seem that your 3-5 point shift that can't be accounted for by reduced AA turnout (and perhaps the drop in out of state voting absentee by college students? I wish we had a better idea of what the absentee population looked like). This was a 2 person race and the drop of the even more conservative libertarian off this ballot would potentially release 3% to Chambliss he didn't have before, although this would probably be closer to 2% in a run-off since conservatives are more likely to participate in a run-off than liberals. Just a thought.