Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election

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2009-10-02T04:01:43.919-04:00

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2009-07-22T03:51:57.687-04:00

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2009-05-18T11:15:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T02:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:31:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:31:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T23:58:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T04:01:00.000-05:00

It sure looks to me like the recent trend is for a...

2008-12-14T21:16:00.000-05:00

It sure looks to me like the recent trend is for appointed senators to have a similar success rate in getting elected in their own right as other incumbents do in getting reelected. Sen. Carnahan (from my state of Missouri) was unfortunately the only real example since the beginning of the Clinton era to fail in this respect (and as noted in the OP, she deserves credit for having essentially beaten Ashcroft two years previous).

-Alan

One more for the list of failed appointees:James B...

2008-12-12T11:02:00.000-05:00

One more for the list of failed appointees:

James Broyhill (R-NC) was appointed to the Senate in 1986 to serve out the term of John East (R-NC), who had committed suicide.

Broyhill subsequently lost the General Election in Nov 1986 to Terry Sanford, D-NC.

Blago really needs to step down, his acareer is ov...

2008-12-12T09:46:00.000-05:00

Blago really needs to step down, his acareer is over and he needs to end it on the high road to have any chance at getting hired when he gets out of jail.

@Robby:Republican Lt. Governor? In Illinois?Pat Q...

2008-12-12T09:23:00.000-05:00

@Robby:
Republican Lt. Governor? In Illinois?
Pat Quinn's a Democrat.
Mr. Waldorf may be worried that any appointment by a Democrat (even if it is not by Blagojevich) would be seen as tainted.

What happened to blog moderation? Anyway mrs B if ...

2008-12-12T08:30:00.000-05:00

What happened to blog moderation? Anyway mrs B if you had a brain you would realise the senate is the upper house and so the equivalent is the house of lords, not MPs.

Davy said... @judas_priest(What is this troll reun...

2008-12-12T03:56:00.000-05:00

Davy said...
@judas_priest

(What is this troll reunion day?)

HA! Where's 'Real Joe' when you need her?

December 11, 2008 5:17 PM

#########
Sir Davy,
it's Him not Her.
Real Joe was (and still is I guess)a dude.

and yes,
I miss Him too.
but let bygone by bygone.
bye.

from few post below:Statler N Waldorf said... Back...

2008-12-12T03:50:00.000-05:00

from few post below:

Statler N Waldorf said...

Back in June or July (I can't remember which), I was at this convenience store waiting in line... So, I tell you what... until you ditch that pre-programmed, robotlike attack style and glassy-eyed subservience to the party line, forget it.

December 10, 2008 5:45 PM

@Sir Statler,
I swallowed your post.
congratulation.
this is one of the reason why I keep on watching this site.
Because sometime I can find out thoughtful person like you.

bye

Opus132, I believe Statler was referring to the sc...

2008-12-12T02:27:00.000-05:00

Opus132, I believe Statler was referring to the scenario in which indicted Gov. Blagojovech appointed a Democrat, as opposed to impeaching him and allowing the Republican Lt. Governor to make an appointment.

Anyone appointed by Blago would be tainted and doomed to defeat in 2010, but a Republican placed there by special appointment would probably enjoy few benefits of incumbency in a general election.

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat fil...

2008-12-12T01:41:00.000-05:00

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat filled for 2 years max?

Two years AT BEST? No,at best two years followed by six.

Why so negative? You sound very dispirited.

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat fil...

2008-12-12T01:14:00.000-05:00

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat filled for 2 years max? Fuck it. It's not worth it. I'd rather lose it now and come back in 2010 and reclaim it for a whole six than win it now, trash our credibility, and then lose it for the next twenty years come 2010. We can hold down 58 (including Franken) for two years if that means we'll hit 60 solid with a clear mandate. If we havfe to negotiate with a couple moderate Repubs (the two that are left, anyway), fine.

Let's do this election thing. But you Repugnants better watch out, because if we win this thing, in spite of sagging poll numbers, in spite of Blago and in spite of everything else, then you're really fucked.

If the VP has to become the President then the Spe...

2008-12-12T00:28:00.000-05:00

If the VP has to become the President then the Speaker of the house becomes VP regardless of who that is. And someone in turn becomes the speaker; etc.

Davy-

Not a good idea.

Suppose the Speaker doesn't want to become VP? He's drafted against his will? Equally bad,suppose the Speaker and the President are members of different parties? A potential disaster.

@DanI put forth the question as an academic exerci...

2008-12-12T00:00:00.000-05:00

@Dan

I put forth the question as an academic exercise. My objective was to explore how we could best address replacing vacant seats without 1.) leaving that power in one person's hands who might be compromised and 2.) how could we accomplish that in an equitable manner that didn't cost taxpayers $50,000,000 for a special election or a drawn-out impeachment process.

I didn't actually think that picking one's successor was a good idea because that scenario is fraught with the same propensity for cronyism and racketeering that we currently see in the Blagojevich debacle. I was thinking of a fairer process. For example, If the VP has to become the President then the Speaker of the house becomes VP regardless of who that is. And someone in turn becomes the speaker; etc. A pre-determined process, if you will. This is merely one of a number of election reforms I advocate.

Can we please get a Senate 2010 tracker? Today th...

2008-12-11T23:43:00.000-05:00

Can we please get a Senate 2010 tracker? Today there was a poll in NC...Cooper (D) +5 over Burr (R).

The idea of choosing one's successor just sounds l...

2008-12-11T22:28:00.000-05:00

The idea of choosing one's successor just sounds like a monumentally bad idea to me. A governor naming a replacement senator makes sense and is consistent with the purposes of our government - the governor is doing the duty as the highest-ranking elected political offer of the state.

But when you have the officeholder simply picking a successor? An office is simply not the property of an officeholder. It's not property that you're bequeathing in a will. The role of the governor in selecting a replacement serves as an important protection from turning congressmen and senators into de facto members of an American peerage.

This is probably more a problem in the House, which can be carved up to make districts essentially bulletproof for one party or another. Maybe, say, Christopher Dingell would be the best person to eventually take over Michigan 15, but would we really want him in Congress as Christopher Dingell, 3rd Earl of Ann Arbor?

In Massachusetts, the legislature runs the show, s...

2008-12-11T22:23:00.000-05:00

In Massachusetts, the legislature runs the show, so they alternate between allowing the governor to choose (if the governor is both a Democrat and pliable) and having special elections when the governor is not.

All sorts of ways to make a sausage politically. I prefer special elections, but that favors those in Congress or with high name recognition.

I like Nate's overall point is that unlike regular incumbents, these special favors usually do NOT help the interim senator keep the easist job in America to maintain.

@along: In Michigan, judges are elected on a (nomi...

2008-12-11T21:50:00.000-05:00

@along: In Michigan, judges are elected on a (nominally) non-partisan ballot. Mid-term vacancies are filled through appointment by the governor.

Even appointed incumbent judges nearly always win re-election. Perhaps the lack of information matters; for a Senator, voters at least get a party ID.

Thanks, Nate.

2008-12-11T20:40:00.000-05:00

Thanks, Nate.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election

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キャッシング インプラント ダンボール 水 通販 幼児教室

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

It sure looks to me like the recent trend is for a...

One more for the list of failed appointees:James B...

Blago really needs to step down, his acareer is ov...

@Robby:Republican Lt. Governor? In Illinois?Pat Q...

What happened to blog moderation? Anyway mrs B if ...

Davy said... @judas_priest(What is this troll reun...

from few post below:Statler N Waldorf said... Back...

Opus132, I believe Statler was referring to the sc...

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat fil...

So basically at best we'd get this senate seat fil...

If the VP has to become the President then the Spe...

@DanI put forth the question as an academic exerci...

Can we please get a Senate 2010 tracker? Today th...

The idea of choosing one's successor just sounds l...

In Massachusetts, the legislature runs the show, s...

@along: In Michigan, judges are elected on a (nomi...

Thanks, Nate.

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