Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Get Ready for Hockey Dad!

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2009-10-10T08:04:12.841-04:00

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Three things I'd note: 1. The DFL candidate, cont...

2009-06-08T13:48:14.448-04:00

Three things I'd note:

1. The DFL candidate, continuing a long tradition for the Minnesota Governor seat, was seen as quite "boring" and ran a horrid campaign. Minnesota is interesting in that the up-and-comers in the DFL gravitate towards Senate (Wellstone, Klobuchar, Franken), while the has-beens and old party guys go for Governor (Moe, Hatch). It will be interesting, with the entire party (most leaders in the legislature, both big city mayors, several former statewide officeholders) running in 2010, who gets nominated. Will be a member of the old(er) guard, or the new, and will there be so much infighting a Pawlenty-type will cruise? Or, *cringe*, Bachmann?

The second thing: in two elections, Pawlenty never garnered more than 45% of the vote in Minnesota, which is, these days, not much more liberal than the rest of the country anymore. I don't know how well that bodes for presidential aspirations.

Third, I think the big numbers here are the urban-suburban-rural split. Minnesota has large and (until recently, at least) growing suburbs, and they are quite conservative, especially compared with the very liberal center cities. This is rather well illustrated by the fact that in the current state legislature, a contiguous block of house DFLers in and around the Twin Cities is completely surrounded by a ring of Republicans. Or the 2006 election results. The deep-blue central cities surrounded by the deep-red suburbs, with the rest of the state (mostly rural, although highly unionized and DFL-centric up northeast) mixed.

This may work okay for Pawlenty in Minnesota, where a lot of the population is in the suburbs. But if he can't outperform generic Republicans in urban or rural states, he's in trouble; I can't see him flipping nearly enough states on the strength of the suburbs to win. If he had two out of three (i.e., urban-suburban or suburban-rural) that would be one thing, but he is a suburban candidate barely elected by a suburban constituency. Thank goodness the whole country isn't like that.

Here's a bit more map fun (all PDFs):

2006-SEN: Amy Klobuchar won many more suburbs, by relatively high margins, in 2006, but still lost the western exurbs, especially in Sherburne, Wright, Carver and Scott counties.

2008-POTUS (statewide, Twin Cities metro): The color scale changed slightly, but Obama didn't do quite as well as Klobuchar in the suburbs, winning the cities and the first ring, generally splitting the second ring suburbs and losing the exurbs. (Lakeville, a third ring suburb, was the location of the rally where a woman said of Obama, to McCain: "he's an Arab.

2008-SEN (statewide, metro): In a race similar to the 2006 governor race, the Republican and DFLer split the state, with a reasonably strong middle candidate. Results are similar.

Jodi Rell is not a serious candidate for one reaso...

2009-06-05T23:54:19.574-04:00

Jodi Rell is not a serious candidate for one reason and one reason alone: the GOP is simply not going to attempt to put the first governor to sign civil unions into law in the White House. Jodi Rell is simply not "conservative" enough for the national GOP leadership and she has already failed their principal religious test.

Okay, as someone from Minnesota, a few things. 1)...

2009-06-05T19:00:10.080-04:00

Okay, as someone from Minnesota, a few things.

1) Pawlenty is a moderate. No, he's a Grover Norquist type. Read up on just how our last budget session ended. 40,000 of the least fortunate going without healthcare was something he found preferable to asking those making above $250,000 to pay taxes at the rate they had paid throughout the 90's boom. And he's as evangelical as they come to boot. In a state that values face to face politeness more than the rest of the country, he is polite and pleasant. Not moderate.

2) It's DFL, not Democrats. We have a larger and healthier rural base in Minnesota than most Democratic parties still manage. Sadly, keeping them in the tent will often involve nominating candidates with some policy stances that make the metro-area left choke on its tofu. Combine that with nominating Mike Hatch, and Independence Party got a lot of Klobuchar voters gov-vote. Pawlenty has never got 50%. He's been polite when we've nominated abrasive people, and the IP has gotten the virtuous flakes.

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2009-06-05T13:41:11.250-04:00

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There's nothing "moderate" about Pawlenty. People ...

2009-06-05T09:33:53.257-04:00

There's nothing "moderate" about Pawlenty. People mistake his relatively quiet demeanor and style as a sign of moderation, but it isn't. He's vetoed more bills and parts of bills than any governor in MN history, and if you look at those vetoes you will see just how completely ideological he is. He's a stealth extremist. He refers to himself as a "moderate" but his idea of moderation is throwing 100,000 people out of health care rather than 105,000. And then of course he's liar so you have to factor that into any self descriptions he offers.

Mike: Thanks for pointing out that discussion. Yea...

2009-06-05T08:38:46.964-04:00

Mike: Thanks for pointing out that discussion. Yeah, Buchanan is a bit too much of a (I can't believe I'm using this word, but it fits) maverick. He has earned the nomination, being a water carrier for the conservative movement going all the way back to Nixon, but won't reliably, ahem, toe the line.

My main point here is just that the GOP will likely pick someone who has earned the nomination through faithful service to the party and an ability to articulate party orthodoxy, but frankly has little chance of getting elected. Why should they waste what could be a good candidate by running them in a tough year or simply before that candidate is ready?

As an aside, I think McCain (or if the stories are correct, his handlers) did the GOP and Palin a great disservice by nominating Palin in 2008. She has a telegenic manner, a strong ability with prepared speeches and solid, if folksy, debating skills. What she lacks is experience, knowledge of the issues and .... umm... gravitas. The trailer park soap opera that is her life doesn't help. Had she not been on the ticket, and had another few years to buff up on her weak spots and let her private life quiet down a bit, she could have been a truly formidable candidate for 2016 or 2020. As it is, much like Dan Quayle who was also tapped far too soon, she has become a national joke and is unlikely to go much further. No matter what she does from here on out... Senate? UN ambassador for a GOP President? Sec. of Defense? None of it will matter because a significant chunk of the electorate will only remember her bumbling her way through those Katie Couric interviews.

@Judas Priest: "toe the line,"... comes from stan...

2009-06-05T02:55:47.859-04:00

@Judas Priest: "toe the line,"... comes from standing yourself right up to a pre-marked line, your toes just touching it, as though in a military formation. (Which I believe is the source

Actually the source is boxing. In olden times, after a knockdown if the guy could get up and stand precisely at a line, the ref would resume the fight, but not if he was wobbly.

"How is Mitch Daniels considered moderate? Isn't h...

2009-06-05T02:40:08.983-04:00

"How is Mitch Daniels considered moderate? Isn't he staunchly anti-choice?"

There are other issues in politics, you know. Mitch doesn't talk about social issues very often - he seems much more concerned with the economy. He is an old-school fiscal conservative (one that actually balances budgets), but has done things like accepting bailout money and levying a one-time wealth tax to get there.

I think the populist-technocrat divide is the harder placement for him. He is folksy and big on visiting/talking to Hoosiers. At the same time he has made unpopular decisions (like instituting daylight savings time... yes that was a major issue in Indiana) that defy the "wisdom of the common man". He is definitely a policy wonk too.

Anyhow, I question the utility of looking at Pawlenty's (or anybody's) success as governor in order to gauge how serious a contender they will be in the primaries and presidential election.

If you look at governor-presidents, the most politically successful governors don't often win.

Good governors
Huckabee did better than expected but not by much; Tommy Thompson was a non-starter as president; Dean fizzled in 2004; Dukakis flopped in the presidential campaign; Nelson Rockefeller lost a ton of campaigns; George Wallace's campaigns flopped too (I don't think Wallace was a good governor, but he was popular in Alabama); and Adlai Stevenson was a two-time presidential loser.

Crappy/mediocre governors
Mitt Romney lost the primary but had a solid shot; Bush won the primary and general; Clinton did too; so did Reagan; and Jimmy Carter.

How is Mitch Daniels considered moderate? Isn't h...

2009-06-05T00:16:03.857-04:00

How is Mitch Daniels considered moderate? Isn't he staunchly anti-choice?

Nosimplehiway, You mentioned Buchanan as a possib...

2009-06-04T23:22:18.688-04:00

Nosimplehiway,

You mentioned Buchanan as a possible GOOPer candidate. I don't think it will happen.

Earlier this week, Chris Mathews point blank asked Buchanan with which party he is registered. Buchanan responded that Virginia doesn't register by party. Mathews pressed him, asking with which party he identifies. Buchanan responded that he almost always votes for the GOOPer, unless his own name is on the ballot.

My interpretation of that response - Buchanan, when running for office, thinks he is his own party, and doesn't want to/won't share the spotlight with anyone else.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Nate writes: "True, almost any "opposite-color" go...

2009-06-04T21:18:31.336-04:00

Nate writes: "True, almost any "opposite-color" governor of a reasonably large state is someone who is going to get at least a passing thought from his party. But there's no particularly good reason why, say, Tim Pawlenty is considered a serious presidential candidate and someone like Jodi Rell isn't."

Um, because a Republican has to be at least minimally conservative to be a serious candidate for the nomination? Rell is pro-choice and otherwise not particularly conservative at all. Pawlenty at least meets the minimum standard of conservativism to be in the discussion. There's a reason that George Pataki wasn't a serious candidate for the GOP nomination a few years ago too.

As long as we're correcting jroc133, the expressio...

2009-06-04T19:01:10.330-04:00

As long as we're correcting jroc133, the expression is "toe the line," not "tow the line" IT comes from standing yourself right up to a pre-marked line, your toes just touching it, as though in a military formation. (Which I believe is the source). This is the exact sense in which you were using it. How "towing" a line fits that is beyond me.

I know the words are homophones. Does that mean the right wing will be horribly opposed to them? "We don't want those damned homos to be able to use their special phones to corrupt our youth.!" Hmmn, I know I had a thought here somewhere, but I used the sentence to have an excuse to post the word-play. Ah yes: when using expressions, pay attention to the sense and not just the sound.

Couple things from a MN resident/Dem: First, the ...

2009-06-04T18:05:31.595-04:00

Couple things from a MN resident/Dem:

First, the national press either ignores or completely misses the point about the races Pawlenty has won: the "left" lost because, as you briefly mentioned, the Independence Party stole their votes. This is NOT a Green Party/Nader situation though; this is on-going and the party is more established. The IP throws up the same two or three popular candidates every election who are policy wonks. Instead of running to the left or right, they are sort of Obama-esque in their obsession over post-partisanism and policy. Meaning, they steal a lot of well-meaning liberal votes from people who think this new party can magically rise above "politics." This appeals to many Minnesotans who are turned off by those other parties who supposedly sit around "playing politics." It's uniquely Minnesotan (where else would emphasizing you're "nice" work as a party?), and it works well politically.

Second, before radical conservatism was cool, Pawlenty liked to do some Clintonish small bore Dem things. He switched his position on light rail and got it going in MN. He is big on the environment. I could've see him being a David Cameron type of guy both in attitude and in politics, but it seems he'll do a Limbaugh impression and lose big time.

Other Things:
@Moondancer: Pawlenty can charm the pants off of anyone in campaigning, but has "zero charisma" in his speeches. I worked at the Capitol and The Minnesota press corps is extremely tough, knowledgeable, and policy oriented. And, they absolutely loved Pawlenty. There's a reason his nickname is Teflon Tim ... he'll make a self-deprecating joke, flash an aw-shucks smile, and suddenly everyone's brainwashed.

@Matthew: Minnesota is bigger than 29 states, dontcha know. The Twin Cities are bigger than Saint Louis, Baltimore, Tampa, Denver, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Portland, Sacramento .... it's big.

Two things that were just driving me a little craz...

2009-06-04T18:02:22.959-04:00

Two things that were just driving me a little crazy while reading these comments:

jrocc133, Minnesota isn't turning into a blue state, it IS a blue state.

and Ian, Walter Mondale replaced Paul Wellstone, not Hubert Humphrey, easy mixup though.

@Mark: "He'd be a good bet as a VP candidate" On...

2009-06-04T18:00:33.428-04:00

@Mark: "He'd be a good bet as a VP candidate"

Only if they nominate Goode at the top of the ticket!

wv: noname. No comment.

Hi, I have lived in Minnesota throughout the gove...

2009-06-04T17:59:58.869-04:00

Hi, I have lived in Minnesota throughout the governorship of Tim Pawlenty. I wish the issue being discussed was not "is he able to compete for president?" but rather "is he in any slight way qualified to run this or any other country?" I have seen not one reason to believe that the answer to the last question is "yes". He is a Republican governor in a state with Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature. When he was re-elected, he promised to try to run a bi-partisan government. But instead, he set new records for the use of the veto, basically veto-ing almost everything that didn't agree totally with his opinion. I can think of no way at all that Minnesota is better for the fact that he has been governor. The Republicans and everyone else should look elsewhere for candidates for any national office...this includes any future consideration for Senator from Minnesota, something none of us should ever want to see him become.

Barring a major crash and burn on the part of the ...

2009-06-04T17:15:14.554-04:00

Barring a major crash and burn on the part of the Obama administration, it seems more likely that the GOP will look for a candidate that has paid his dues, deserves a go at the brass ring and is either willing to enter the history books as a sacrificial lamb, or is deluded enough to not see that dynamic. (Mrs. SP, I'm looking at you.)

The first rule will be Do No Harm. They'll likely pick a Happy Warrior who no one really expects to win, but can do a decent job of showcasing the center of the party and not hurt down-ticket races. It will help a lot if the candidate is either too old or too much of a longshot to worry about hurting his chances at 2016.

Remember Dole, Mondale and McGovern? This time, think Gingrich, Buchanan, Lugar, Brownback, McConnell, Coburn, Cornyn, and, yes, Jindl or Palin. If the GOP is smart, they'll get creative with a Carcieri, Snowe or Bloomberg, but they aren't, so they won't.

If Pawlenty runs, it will likely be to network with and fundraise from GOP folks nationwide, in preparation for challenging Franken in 2014, possibly with a wistful eye toward the presidency in 2016. He'll stay in long enough to raise his national profile (which he has already done... when is the last time 538 discussed the GOP governor of Hawaii or South Dakota?), accrue a slight floor presence at the convention and a good mailing list of contributors, but otherwise expect him to drop out at the first sign of a consensus forming around some one else.

Well, the repubs will eventually have to go the di...

2009-06-04T17:02:38.945-04:00

Well, the repubs will eventually have to go the direction of Pawlenty and Huntsman, buts lets strongly encourage them to stick with Rush ans Cheney and stay in the minority for decades.

(Of course, any Minnesota politician who is hoping...

2009-06-04T16:34:48.844-04:00

(Of course, any Minnesota politician who is hoping to win a race without a third-party candidate mucking things up somehow is making a mistake).

Al Franken?

Umm, political fallout from the minnesota senate r...

2009-06-04T15:41:12.952-04:00

Umm, political fallout from the minnesota senate race?

Wouldn't that be a good reason to not seek reelection? End pretending the voters still like you?

I don't buy Pawlenty as a serious Presidential can...

2009-06-04T15:24:30.297-04:00

I don't buy Pawlenty as a serious Presidential candidate. He'd be a good bet as a VP candidate, but I don't think that he has the weight and gravitas to be a serious Presidential candidate. That being said, when you think of it, in a year of uncontested Democratic Primaries, he may have half a shot at the Presidential nomination. A midwestern must stand half a chance in Iowa, he could pick up a bit more momentum with a decent showing in New Hampshire, and assuming a thin field with people not willing to risk a run against Obama, he might even emerge as a stop Palin type of candidate. (Assuming more support than might be expected in open Primaries) I guess the weakness would be the winner take all rules that GOP primaries tend to use. Getting creditable seconds doesn't keep you in the race, even if it gives you attention from the media.

So its a strange paradox that a moderate Republican stands a better chance in the Primaries than he does come November 2012. I wonder if some right wingers might decide to give the moderate the poisoned chalice so that they can claim that a moderate wasn't what the people wanted, and prepare to find a far right nutjob to run in 2016, when they might stand a better chance.

Tony C- Your comment makes sense, is logical. ...

2009-06-04T15:11:57.915-04:00

Tony C-

Your comment makes sense, is logical. Unfortunately you forget the GOP is neither, and would rather name the Mississippi after Dukakis than nominate a gay governor that endorsed Obama...

My gut reaction to him is he doesn't have what it ...

2009-06-04T15:07:55.834-04:00

My gut reaction to him is he doesn't have what it takes. He is a charisma zero, and will turn invisible in the big hot spotlight. No, this cycle of the GOP/Wagner opera will go to the brash doomed uber-warrior, one who will fall into the abyss in flames, to inspire goopers to further purification.

I think Pawlenty loses his shirt, along with Jinda...

2009-06-04T14:41:07.058-04:00

I think Pawlenty loses his shirt, along with Jindal, Palin, Huckabee and Romney. Obama has already publicly staked his reputation and re-election on getting the economy and the budget out of the ditch; Romney has nothing else to run on.

Jindal screwed up in his first impression after the SOTU, and Palin is a niche candidate that cannot win the swing vote, she is proven to be too much of a liar (to the swing vote). Huckabee cannot compete on the swing vote either.

The best bet for the Republican nomination is Crist. He at least has a chance. Of course, I will be happiest if one of the other total losers get it; it will be another landslide for Obama.