Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Louisiana

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2009-09-25T07:51:04.576-04:00

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2009-03-23T05:23:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T01:56:00.000-05:00

For "demographic purposes," I'm a white female gra...

2008-11-01T18:24:00.000-04:00

For "demographic purposes," I'm a white female graduate student of Cajun descent who voted for Obama in La. last week!!

Politics is not my area of expertise, but the previous postings on the factors that may affect how voters here will cast their ballots is unfortunately true. Many people here are uneducated and racism is still prevalent. I've also have heard those comments from individuals about N.O. being "cleaned out" after Katrina...It's very disheartening to hear most members of my family talk about the election as they either don't want to vote for a black man or assume he's a closet communist. Fortunately, there are people who do see past this and have expressed their interest in voting for either candidate based on the actual issues .

As a registered independent, I'm glad we've progressed to the point of electing a non-white governor (albeit republican, is doing a great job so far), yet am ashamed of the passive and negative attitudes that prevail among many Louisianians.

However, I do agree that Obama missed an opportunity with the passing of Gustav and lack of attention from the mainstream media, even if this state is not a key player in regards to the election.

Terri's correct, North and South La. are EXTREMELY different (North being mainly Protestant and culturally deprived, while South La. is comprised of a large proportion of Catholics and is home to the Cajun/Creole culture that is associated with this state as a whole...)

Louisiana is not in play

2008-10-15T14:56:00.000-04:00

Louisiana is not in play

I think Northern Louisiana will hurt Obama more th...

2008-10-15T14:35:00.000-04:00

I think Northern Louisiana will hurt Obama more than Southern Louisiana. Southern Louisiana is not exactly liberal, but more progressive than Northern Louisiana. We have New Orleans, more younger educated voters, and more diverse voters. We've had a surge in the Hispanic population who were attracted by growing construction work after Hurricane Katrina.

Don't count us out. We've done a good bit of ground work here as well. We may just surprise you and go blue.

Just as a matter of accuracy, it's "Dollar" Bill J...

2008-10-15T10:49:00.000-04:00

Just as a matter of accuracy, it's "Dollar" Bill Jefferson, not Bill "Cash Bricks" Jefferson. He's been "Dollar" Bill since I was a kid growing up on the northshore watching Garland and Angela on WWL.

Although I love my state of Louisiana, I'm a outnu...

2008-10-15T10:48:00.000-04:00

Although I love my state of Louisiana, I'm a outnumbered DEM down here...and often think I'd be enjoying the race even more if I knew more than 8-10 others who are voting for man who will be our next President.

Anyway, I want to thank you for the BEST Vitter reference - "the guy with the hookers" - that I've seen in a LONG time. LOVE IT.

I would also LOVE to see yall do a short profile of the Jefferson-Moreno race. Jefferson's running against a freakin' news reporter chick! And an average news reporter at that! It really blows my mind - either choice is shocking - even when you're use to La politics!!!
UN....wait for it...
BELIEVABLE!!!!

If you really want a glimpse of the future of the ...

2008-10-15T09:37:00.000-04:00

If you really want a glimpse of the future of the struggle, tune in to Rush Limbaugh on the day after the election! That will be an ear-full (if you can stand it will be very informative).

It will be all about tearing down and de- legitimating Obama's victory.

They will be pushing "cultural" themes that are code words for race "real American" "elitist" "anti-God" i.e. urban cities with their large minority populations.

They've been doing it this entire election and it's not going to stop!

"Chris said... "You could wash away the entire ...

2008-10-15T09:31:00.000-04:00

"Chris said...

"You could wash away the entire state and they're still too dumb to learn."

You are not helping."

It's my job to help them now? Help them get over the racism they've clung to since the 17th century?

Southern Whites adopted slavery, not because it was economically the only way, but because they wished to become European style aristocrats.

You should read Mark Twain's Life On The Mississippi for a born Southerner's view of southern culture with it's emphasis on "chivalry" and "aping the manners or a bygone and humbug age."

Blacks were to be the American equivalent of feudal serfs allowing the planter class to live the lives of lords of the manor and poor whites to aspire to become lordly planters.

That sickness still contaminates Southern Society. It's NOT JUST racism. It's authoritarianism, militarism, jingo-ism, love of those in power, and hatred of those social orders below you. It's backwards looking, reactionary and repressive. The North is hardly free of any of these traits, but the South is built around them.

The New Deal failed to completely transform America because the South resisted unionization.

We don't have universal health care because it would require a government run health care system like every other advanced industrial society has -- and the South thinks that's "socialism."

Yes, they are being dragged kicking and screaming into the 20th century now, but look at the polls! They are fighting desperately and screaming bloody murder at every step!

We won't have a progressive society until entire generations of these idiots die off and are replaced by people who won't just line up and vote based on "identity politics" --- meaning they want to keep the "N----rs from stealing my job!"

Don't kid yourself! After this election, the racist right wing of the Republican party will conclude they lost because they didn't push their opposition to "Amnesty for Illegals" strongly enough! They might not have nominated Tom Tancredo, but he speaks for their hearts.

And because conservatism can never fail, can never be repudiated by the American people, it can only be betrayed --- SO obviously, Bush and McCain weren't "real conservatives."

Well, what's a "real conservative?" For tens of millions, it's going to be "close the borders!" It's going to be a silent deadly fight to prevent whites from becoming the minority, as they are inevitably going to do. It's going to be to "save American [read white] culture."

Yes, for the majority this election will help heal racial divides. But, among angry whites it only reinforces their sense of being kicked while they are down.

You see it in a lot of the comments on this site! Right-wing posters bitter over Obama's victory, vowing to lie down and resist everything. It's going to be an ugly 4 years, because these people aren't going to take "the Blacks taking over" as one man put it to me, lightly.

Obama Campaign Buys Ads in 18 Video GamesLink

2008-10-15T08:53:00.000-04:00

Obama Campaign Buys Ads in 18 Video Games

Link

new thread

2008-10-15T08:47:00.000-04:00

new thread

Sen. Clinton says 2nd White House run is unlikelyL...

2008-10-15T08:46:00.001-04:00

Sen. Clinton says 2nd White House run is unlikely

Link

Had to add a post here, since I'm a New Orleans na...

2008-10-15T08:46:00.000-04:00

Had to add a post here, since I'm a New Orleans native. LA is a complicated state, and Katrina changed it in ways that aren't totally clear even now. But it SHOULD, in this year, be a blue state. Here's hoping (kinda the way I hoped the levees wouldn't break back in 2005)...

I think the "American descent" of Louisiana is a b...

2008-10-15T07:54:00.000-04:00

I think the "American descent" of Louisiana is a bit forgetful of history:

The Cajuns were (French) Acadians forced out of the Maritime provinces of Canada by the British ( to the winner go the spoils ); Acadiana is still the official name of the Louisiana.
And Creole is a mix of French / Caribbean / West African.

People who claim "American" descent just aren't aware of their lineage far enough to see their non-American origins.

While I have researched ancestors in Maryland as early as the late 1600s, they were English.

Zogby dropped a very good Obama day so the drop is...

2008-10-15T07:17:00.000-04:00

Zogby dropped a very good Obama day so the drop is not unexpected. Loks like like Zogby will "bob" up and down for awhile as they seem to have alternate good and bad Obama days.

How is that for a shitty poll?.

What a stupid campaign McCain is running right now...

2008-10-15T06:13:00.000-04:00

What a stupid campaign McCain is running right now. Things could change though..

Then again, if it looks like McCain is chickening ...

2008-10-15T05:29:00.000-04:00

Then again, if it looks like McCain is chickening out, Obama can raise Ayers. He has just too many good ways to respond to let McCain off.

If McCain DOESN'T mention Ayers he'll look weak.Al...

2008-10-15T05:24:00.000-04:00

If McCain DOESN'T mention Ayers he'll look weak.
Alternatively, if McCain DOES mention Ayers he'll be made to look stupid and uncaring about the economy.
Either way he's FECKED!

Some late SUSA polls:New Mexico: Obama 52 McCain 4...

2008-10-15T05:18:00.000-04:00

Some late SUSA polls:

New Mexico: Obama 52 McCain 45 (Obama up 20 among early voters)

Washington: Obama 56 McCain 40

The Zogby tracker has Obama 48 McCain 44 a two point drop in Obama's lead but this tracker seems to go up and down 2 points on alternate days and Zogby is crap so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

Tonight's debate is McCain's last chance to change momentum barring a terrorist attack or an Obama assassination. The big question for the pundits will be whether McCain dares to raise Ayers. For me this is a huge elephant trap laid down by Obama. If McCain raises it, Obama will spend 30 seconds addressing it dismissively before spending a full 2 minutes exposing McCain's deliberate decision to avoid talking about the economy to focus on personal attacks. By the end of it, McCain will look like a small minded politico with no integrity. I cannot wait but my suspicion is that McCain will not raise it unless Schieffer specifically asks (which is unlikely)

To those eager to dismiss Louisiana as a loss beca...

2008-10-15T04:19:00.000-04:00

To those eager to dismiss Louisiana as a loss because of racism:

You're wrong. Yes, racism is widespread in Louisiana and it takes on many different forms ... but racism alone will not send the state to McCain.

Obama certainly has an uphill battle here, but the situation is far more complicated than just racism.

If Obama were to swing through Louisiana and address issues such as hurricane recovery, coastal erosion, gross economic inequality, etc. I think he could stand a real chance to win the state.

In Louisiana, the racists don't outnumber the neglected.

since so many post about raceDefeating - or even a...

2008-10-15T04:06:00.000-04:00

since so many post about race

Defeating - or even abolishing - racism is a slow process. It will still take many generations. Obama's election however can deliver the equivalent of an evolutionary jump, speeding up the process. Another possibility of quickstepping would be to simply abolish any reference to race in pubblic data. I know this is seen as a setback to affirmative action policies, but not if you believe, as I do, that ultimately affirmative action should be tied mainly to social and economic disadvantages. Also there is a growing mixed race population, as myself, who is at odds when having to answer the question of ethnicity. Giving the possibility to people of mixed ancestry to chose their race, as happens in census, proves just one thing: race is also a cultural mindset. The lowest point of this mindset is the sc one drop rule. This is the mindset that makes Obama black over here and possibly white in Kenya. This is the mindset that makes hard working people white. This is the mindset which brought about the existance of a caucasian race, since the term arian was just a bit to nazi. I don't know how many are aware of this but anthropologically speaking there is nothing like a caucasian race.
Africans of different ethnicities have been shipped as slaves and utlimately lumped up into a new race: the Afro-American.
There is a point I want to make: race is as much of a cultural bias as it is scientific. Dominant mindsets and political power have allways invented races to divide people: just think about untouchables in India. Even judaism is not a race -Ethiopian falashas are genetically closer to the rest of ethipians than to askenazi jews. This is not to denigrate judaism but just to express a prevalence of religion ad culture over race. I'm not denying the existance of races, I just want to state the dangers of overstating their importance.

I am really thinking the reverse Bradley Effect wi...

2008-10-15T03:44:00.000-04:00

I am really thinking the reverse Bradley Effect will exist in states like LA. The internet is shedding light and knowledge in even the darkest coners of racism...

I think an overlooked issue for Louisianans is how...

2008-10-15T03:40:00.001-04:00

I think an overlooked issue for Louisianans is how closely tied Louisiana's work force is to oil. A lot of Louisianans work offshore in the Gulf. Even though Obama supports offshore drilling, McCain will clearly allow our country to rely more heavily on oil, which at least in voters' minds translates to keeping their jobs, or perhaps opening the door for more jobs. The fact that Lousiana is full of very low-income white evangelicals is also a big factor.

"You could wash away the entire state and they're ...

2008-10-15T03:40:00.000-04:00

"You could wash away the entire state and they're still too dumb to learn."

You are not helping.