Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: "Clear-Eyed Pragmatist": The Obama Brand Has Come ...

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2009-03-11T23:41:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:41:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-16T22:44:00.000-05:00

Pete, what is it that you want? Biden and Gore mak...

2008-08-26T13:43:00.000-04:00

Pete, what is it that you want? Biden and Gore make too much kissy-face with their wives, according to you, while Obama's fist-bump with Michelle strikes you as too "cool". Jeez Louise, could you possibly find a smaller nit to pick!

Apparently, it is important to you that the Obamas plan their PDAs meticulously, carefully threading the needle between "too hot" and "too cold". For my part, I found the fist-bump "just right": affectionate, fun, and just a bit self-aware.

As for your objections to Biden, they amount to "He's no Hillary Clinton." There's no denying that she got many times more primary votes than Biden, or anybody else besides Obama. But she disqualified herself from serious consideration as Obama's VP when she disparaged his Commander-in-Chief credentials. There is a line that a runner-up may not cross, and Hillary Clinton repeatedly ran all over it.

The Whole is Less than the Sum of Its PartsChris M...

2008-08-24T20:06:00.000-04:00

The Whole is Less than the Sum of Its Parts

Chris Matthews gushed about the new Democratic ticket all afternoon. The guy is borderline embarrassing and I can’t wait until Rachel Maddow takes over his show and Dan Abrams is restored to his 9 o’clock timeslot.

Of the many things that Matthews said that I disagreed with was with his statement that with the Obama-Biden ticket the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

He said this after noting that with Obama the hair was always in place, the suit well-pressed, the tie just so. Whereas Biden was a regular Joe, quite literally, a little rumpled and just like regular folk.

It struck me immediately that this was a ticket that was a contrast in opposites. If Biden is the “regular Joe” than Obama really is the patrician presence. If Biden is real and rumpled, Obama is coiffed and scripted.

If Biden is a man of experience, Obama is a novice.

To the extent that Obama needed Biden to capture the working class, why is Obama at the top of the ticket?

All of the reasons for picking Biden were the very reasons to pick Mrs. Clinton. If anything he is Clinton-light. Heck he is barely a trace element compared to her. She outpolled him by more than 75 to 1 garnering 18 million votes to his 250,000.

Biden adds nothing geographically. He helps not a whit in the West and as an Easterner his appeal ends east of Harrisburg in PA. If you wanted Hispanics, pick Hillary she won them 60 – 70%. Rural voters she got them at 80%.

Obama has let it be known that Clinton got scarce consideration. The party elders talked him into picking Biden, steering him away from his sentimental choices that might have at least shown him to be the independent post-partisan man he claimed to be.

Now the party handlers have turned him into this crypto-populist from Kansas. Calling Dorothy, I think we are in Oz!

Oddest moment of the intro: Biden mooning over his wife like a lovesick high schooler. It was odd in the way that Gore’s kiss of Tipper in 2000 was odd. It seemed an odd contrast with the fist-bumping Obamas who seem to show little public affection for each other, Obama’s cool detachment extending even to his wife.

I wonder if Maureen Dowd picked up on it.

It is so funny to see how upset all the ultra libs...

2008-08-24T13:19:00.000-04:00

It is so funny to see how upset all the ultra libs get when the racism and bigotry of their party is put in their face. Funny that whenever a conservative mentions anything about another race, sex or sexual orientation they are a racist, bigoted, homophobe but when a Lib says something blatantly racist they are "misquoted", "taken out of context", "misunderstood". Biden is a racist of the worst kind. You are all so funny. Sorry I hurt your intolerant feelings.

I saw a 527 ad about William Ayres today -- first ...

2008-08-24T13:15:00.000-04:00

I saw a 527 ad about William Ayres today -- first time I saw it, trying to link Obama to terrorism in the 1960s because of Ayres' unrepentant confession of his own actions and Obama's saying Ayres is a friend. No film or clips of Obama saying this.

This is being played in Michigan, as well as McCain ads quoting Hillary against Obama and quoting Biden against Obama. In fact, the ads were practically back to back.

This suggests two inferenc4es:

(1) the timing is designed to distract, in a sense to run these smear ads on the eve of and probably (I expect) during the Dem national convention at a time when the Dems don't want to be distracted or address this kind of issue. The question is whether the MSM will pick up the ad and themselves change to this subject. I doubt very much the Obama team will launch counterattacks or ads until after the convention, if at all.

(2) Obama did right by not handcuffing himself from a spending standpoint. Those who argued a couple of months ago, in attacking Obama for not accepting the federal campaign financing, that after all there was no 527 swiftboating this year, were wrong -- and Obama's team knew this kind of thing was likely.

It's funny you put it this way, Nate, because of h...

2008-08-24T13:06:00.000-04:00

It's funny you put it this way, Nate, because of how much Obama reminds me of Bush.

Arrogant and inexperienced, distrustful of others but lost without them, insecurities about being a "decider," etc. It goes on and on. The more this country tries to get away from Bush, the more they will get of his brand of leadership.

Gloria Borger- The Bill Clinton should have been c...

2008-08-24T12:58:00.000-04:00

Gloria Borger- The Bill Clinton should have been consulted about VP pick.

If Barack Obama sought Clinton's advice on who Obama should as VP runningmate.

Clinton's advice would be he should choose between
Hillary Clinton
Bill Richardson
Evan Bayh
Joe Biden

Bill Clinton will say that Hillary,Bayh,and Biden will help Obama with the Bubba /Reagan Democratic voter.

Bill Clinton will say Bayh is boring at not popular with the liberal base. Hillary energizes the Republican Base.

That leaves us to Joe Biden. He has foriegn policy experience- He has an attack dog personality- He is a great on the Sunday talk show debates- He appeals to Reagan Blue Collar Democrats.

Pete Kent - Per George Stephanopulos just now, the...

2008-08-24T11:44:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent -

Per George Stephanopulos just now, their lateswt poll: one-third of HRC's supporters are not Obama.

Those are very bad numbers.

That literally can't be true. Since either Obama or Clinton would get at least 45% in head to head popular vote tracking polls, this would mean that 15% of the population would vote for HRC but not Obama, and vice versa, with only 30% overlap. That's ludicrous on the face of it.

If that were true the Democrat would still be favored, assuming we don't deny the tracking polls (either, or "generic Democrat" polls a bit ahead of McCain), and it would be excellent news for third party candidates.

There are a few right wing women who will vote for a woman, but otherwise Republican as default. That group is small though. With apologies to more intelligent readers, I do base this conclusion on extrapolation from anecdotal evidence. Note that unbiased anecdotal evidence is better than no evidence at all and can be used to formulate a testable hypothesis.

How does Biden help there?

He may actually attract fed-up conservative voters to the ticket, as he is older, male, white, and moderate, thus potentially alleviating the kind of irrational fears that even decent people can feel at times. If they were already considering Clinton, even if because of her gender, their loyalty to the wingnut cause is suspect, and some of them may switch to Obama. Especially with Clinton campaigning for him.

Perhaps those rural voters will come home once they learn of Biden's yeoman like service over 30 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Comm.

Ya never, know.

Sorm clouds over the Rockies. Rain in the forecast.

Perhaps this is information-less opinionizing, with plenty of juvenile sarcasm and fake "folksiness".

Per George Stephanopulos just now, their lateswt p...

2008-08-24T09:09:00.000-04:00

Per George Stephanopulos just now, their lateswt poll: one-third of HRC's supporters are not Obama.

Those are very bad numbers.

How does Biden help there?

Perhaps those rural voters will come home once they learn of Biden's yeoman like service over 30 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Comm.

Ya never, know.

Sorm clouds over the Rockies. Rain in the forecast.

A nerve has clearly been hit with you Obamabots on...

2008-08-24T08:40:00.000-04:00

A nerve has clearly been hit with you Obamabots on the Biden pick's chief weaknesses: One he was unconvinced during the primary that Obama had the capacity to lead the nation (as was Mrs. Clinton) and this will now come up time and time again, reinforcing the Republican message that Obama is not ready to lead. Second, while you all want to dismiss the so-called PUMAs as a small Republican fringe group, there are many , many disaffected former HRC voters out there who remain unassuaged and unimpressed by Biden's selection. Look at that recent WSJ poll -- 50% of her voters are not yet on board. And you wonder why the race is tight?

Biden has many fine qualities; we will no doubt see in the coming days how experienced and qualified he is. Obama will only suffer by comparison.

Worse, the Biden pick now reflects a shift in focus for the Obama campaign from a positive message about transcendent politics to one of John Edwards’s style populism and a fight over the working class votes over lunch bucket issues. Walter Mondale would approve -- and for that we only have to go back 24 years. Hardly new politics.

Biden's honeymoon (which probly will be cut short by the conventions) will turn into Obama's nightmare.

It remains to be seen how the Convention comes across. The media loves a scrap so all those non-existent PUMAs out there who appear like figments to so many of you will seem very real and very loud and very embarrassing to Senator Obama.

There were thunderstorms in Denver last night. Expect more bad weather.

Obama is no radical---he is actually a conservativ...

2008-08-24T07:10:00.000-04:00

Obama is no radical---he is actually a conservative in the Burke style. It's only because the GOP has gone so completely insane and anti intellectual in recent years that he is seen as a liberal. This is also why certain Republicans are drawn to him (an elite phenomenon---not one to affect the elections, but interesting nonetheless).

Obama did reject public financing, but Nate is jus...

2008-08-24T07:04:00.000-04:00

Obama did reject public financing, but Nate is just using Obama's Orwellian spin on this that by accepting private financing, it is actually public because it is from the "American public". You have to understand the Obama-speak here and not read it like an ordinary person or an independent would.

"Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack O...

2008-08-24T05:10:00.000-04:00

"Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack Obama is that he is some sort of anti-establishment revolutionary. Rather, every stage of his political career has been marked by an eagerness to accommodate himself to existing institutions rather than tear them down or replace them."

The "misconception" stems from the Hero worship of the American people. Republicans thought Bush was a titan landing on the flight deck to declare "Mission Accomplished" and Democrats have had unreasonable expectations about what Obama will do when elected.

He'll be a pragmatist because that's where the balance of power now lies.

Movements and institutions matter much more than individuals, which is why Noam Chomsky calls Richard Nixon "the last liberal President."

It wasn't that Nixon had liberal instincts, it's that he was in a time when traditional liberalism still had great strength so he had to go along with plans to create the EPA, pass the environmental laws, create a "war on drugs" that emphasized drug treatment over police, etc., all ideas that would be hopelessly "leftist" if anyone tried to pass them today.

Bill Clinton was a moderate liberal, but he governed in a time when conservatives were gaining more power.

Right now, the nation is swinging back to the left, but it certainly isn't going to leap to progressive ideas all at once any more than Nixon winning in 1968 did. Conservatives had to build their power for 12 more years after that until they were ready to allow Reagan to govern from the right.

And, it's going to take a lot more time before the rising progressive movement is strong enough to permit a Democratic President to be an outright Progressive.

Obama is a moderate Democrat who is slightly to the left of Hillary and that's how he'll govern.

pluckon @ 2:01AM said "Ask your pro-Clinton friend...

2008-08-24T04:50:00.000-04:00

pluckon @ 2:01AM said "Ask your pro-Clinton friends if they want Roe v Wade overturned". This gets to the heart of the misconception about the Hillary holdouts.

They want to elect candidate HRC, not candidate Roe or candidate Wade. They view Hillary exactly the way Oprah views Barack - as The One. And they have every bit as much right as Oprah to view their candidate the way they see fit.

What fuels them now is growing umbrage that a freshman senator has in effect been rewarded for making a selfish career move at her expense equivalent to cutting in line ahead of Hillary at a checkout counter.

This they see as Obama's Original Sin, from which irredeemable character flaws will continue to be inferred, until such time as he repents e.g. picks HRC for VP. Of course, having now picked Biden pretty much condemns Barack to everlasting Hill, I mean Hell.

James: "9/11 was the greatest tragedy to ever happ...

2008-08-24T04:37:00.000-04:00

James: "9/11 was the greatest tragedy to ever happen to our country..."

Aren't you overlooking the Civil War? That resulted in over 200,000 American soldiers killed in action, and more than 600,000 total dead. Even if you arbitrarily limit yourself to single-day tragedies, 9/17 (1862) was worse than 9/11. That was the date of the battle of Antietam, which left approximately 23,000 American casualties, including 3,654 battlefield dead.

Do you define "tragedy" to include only civilian deaths? Well, then, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 killed an estimated 500,000 Americans, including 195,000 in the peak month of October. 9/11 caused almost 3,000 American deaths in all; in October 1918, American flu deaths averaged more than 3,000 per day.

Since the U.S. population was much less in 1918 (and much less still in 1862) than in 2001, obviously the impacts of those earlier tragedies were that much more intensely felt than 9/11.

In that context, let me bring up one other American tragedy that arguably exceeds 9/11: The Cherokee Trail of Tears of 1838 led to the death of about 4,000 Cherokees -- almost one quarter of the approximately 17,000 Cherokees rounded up and interned by Georgian state troops.

By remembering these other historic American tragedies, I don't intend to demean or minimize the very real tragedy of the 3,000 American lives lost in 9/11.

-----

James, your main point is that this tragedy, 9/11, "changed everything". Now, obviously this is not literally true. I will not try to make a comprehensive list of the things that 9/11 didn't change -- that would be impossible. I will instead satisfy myself with a couple of examples. 9/11 didn't change the law of gravity, or the symphonies of Beethoven.

When you say "9/11 changed everything," I take you to mean that 9/11 changed, in a fundamental way, the willingness of the American public (and George W. Bush's Administration) to wage war on "rogue" Islamic countries.

This category includes one hard-line Sunni country that had direct ties to the 9/11 attacks: Afghanistan. OK, fair enough. (Oddly, it excludes Saudi Arabia, another hard-line Sunni country regarded as friendly, even though it gave birth to Osama bin Laden and to 95% of the 9/11 terrorists.)

Odder yet, the "rogue state" category has been interpreted by the Bush administration to include one country with a secular Arab government (Iraq), and another with a Shi'ite Muslim government (Iran). Neither Iraq nor Iran had anything to do with 9/11.

Let me repeat that last point. Regardless of those countries' other objectionable characteristics, neither Iraq nor Iran had anything to do with 9/11. This simple fact was imperfectly understood by the American public, at the time we invaded Iraq.

I think it's fair to say that the Bush administration deliberately fudged, and continues to try to fudge, this simple fact. But in retrospect, it was clear enough, even back in 2002. Al-Qaeda is an extremist Sunni terrorist organization. It makes some sense that Al-Qaeda would receive backing from hard-line Sunni governments like Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. It makes no sense to think that Al-Qaeda would be backed or controlled by secular government of Iraq, or by the Shi'ite government of Iran.

-----

Since we invaded Iraq, we have suffered more than 4,000 American deaths there. Surely that is a tragedy, too. Whether the deaths of those 4,000 constitutes a greater or a lesser tragedy than 9/11 itself, is a question that is both pointless and tasteless. But it is inevitable, nonetheless.

How many thousands (tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands?) of innocent Iraqi lives have been lost as a result of our invasion and occupation? I don't know. It's a number that is impossible to know for certain, of course, but I don't see this administration ever attempting even to estimate it. It is, surely, another terrible human tragedy, another tragedy that 9/11 does nothing to change.

I´ve always thought Obama was a pragmatist - his h...

2008-08-24T03:48:00.000-04:00

I´ve always thought Obama was a pragmatist - his health care plan is much more realistic to get through Congress than Clinton´s one. People also forget that Obama´s greatest strength is his organisation skill, very technocratic, very pragmatic.
I still believe that he is a very progressive politician. Rejecting public financing was always the right thing to do in my opinion, not just because it would be more beneficial, but also because his donations were purely voluntary, by the people, so to say. The FISA bill was a bit dangerous, but he is a law professor, of course he wanted to have a legal foundation to deal with "surveillance" companies. If there was a Guantanamo-bill that would provide strict standards and legal framework to outlaw torture without shutting it down, I guess Obama would support that, too - the contrast would be the law-free space that we have now...
In Sebelius´ defense, she is also rather ideology-blind... but in the end the rust-belt was probably more important than the mid-west, and foreign policy experience was the best way to attack John McCain.

"Elitism goes to character and Obama comes from th...

2008-08-24T03:24:00.000-04:00

"Elitism goes to character and Obama comes from the Ivory tower tradion (sic) of looking down on his inferiors adn (sic) betrays a desire to substitue (sic) his judgment for theirs."
- PeteKent

Hey, Pete, newsflash! It's a GOOD thing to substitute superior judgment for inferior. Society IMPROVES when we exchange bigotry for humanism, ignorance for maturity. Culture evolves when its leaders LEAD, pointing to higher values and wiser themes.

99.99% of the world is scum---unabated scum. You are scum. I am scum. McCain is FUCKING scum.

Obama, however, isn't scum. He's a decent human being. Now stop your self-righteous slobbering, uncross your eyes, and act your age for goddamn once.

James said "Rebut my first two claims then. I real...

2008-08-24T03:12:00.000-04:00

James said "Rebut my first two claims then. I realize that McCain has lobbyists in high positions in his campaign. But these lobbyists are not actually lobbying him. What I mean to say is that these lobbyists are not in the capacity of lobbyists on his campaign. They're advisors. It would be different if he were meeting with Capitol Hill lobbyists and then lobbying for them."

James- I wouldn't care if the lobbyists were lobbying him. The problem is that the lobbyists are actually helping write his policy. That's FAR worse. McCain's economic policy is heavily influenced by Phil Gramm, lobbyist and Vice Chairman of UBS, one of the worst actors in the Mortgage crisis. McCain's Georgia policy is heavily influenced by Randy Scheunemann, whose company has recieved more than $730,000 since 2001 including $200,000 this year alone. Considering how serious that situation is (the phrase "world war three" has been mentioned repeatedly), doesn't it seem reasonable to expect that the people formulating our nations response should not be on the payroll of one of the countries involved?

Like all Chicago pols, Barack will do what it take...

2008-08-24T03:01:00.000-04:00

Like all Chicago pols, Barack will do what it takes to win.

I sure as f*** hope so. I am tired of the sainthood act. If Obama is a "Chicago politician," he sure hasn't been a very good example of one so far. Come on, Barack, I want to see someone's guts on the floor. Make the Republicans afraid of you.

I doubt seriously they will ever come over to Barack, since their objection to his candidacy has been, almost from the beginning, in their view a matter of his existential character defect.

Ask your pro-Clinton friends if they want Roe v Wade overturned. Whenever I see one of these scorned women banging on about Hillary's loss, I have to wonder what the hell they're thinking. Most of them are Republicans posing as Democrats, but some are just confused. It's Obama's job to unconfuse them, because I'm not sure Hillary's going to be of much help.

Biden is a working class hero. He's the poorest guy in the senate, takes the train home every night, and speaks their language.

He doesn't come across that way, and image is everything. He comes across as rather patrician.

I get a kick out of some of the surrogates who are still using the "elitist" theme in their tatcaks. Leslie Sanchez on CNN just talked about "people who are wary of all the elitism and celebrity surrounding the Obama campaign..."

Why shouldn't they keep calling Obama an elitist? That "seven houses" story lasted for one day. Unless Obama keeps pounding on it, the story will vanish. And you know what? I'm not sure he'll keep pounding on it.

I'd like him to, but Obama has a whole lot of John Kerry in him. He doesn't seem to want to fight. As for Biden, I don't know what people are talking about with this fighter stuff. Maybe he turns a neat phrase for the insider crowd, but he's never impressed me as a political knife fighter.

Many will dismiss these PUMAs a Republican figment, but the pundits are on the air talking about it. Susan Estrich just said on Fox that her email is “buzzing with anger” over the way Hillary was treated. And the McCain campaign has already put up an ad criticizing Obama for passing her over. That sounds like a political first. Got to websites like “Hillary is 44” and you get a picture of dissatisfied voters willing to vote for McCain, if only to punish Obama and the establishment that they feel unfairly turned them aside. There is no fury like a woman scorned!

It's a big country out there, so you'll always have some people doing odd things. But those "PUMAs" who weren't Republicans to begin with are going to come home when they realize that a McCain presidency means the end of Roe v Wade.

I continue to come back to Rob Portman, the telegenic family man from Cincinnati whose quiet authority and laser like intelligence will assure that he will hold his own in any conversation. His coming from Ohio will help and draw the contrast with Biden as the Eastern pick. His stones in the budget and trade and economic matters generally will stand him in good stead.

I wish McCain would listen to you and name someone who would cause people to scratch their heads and say, "Who the hell is that?" but unfortunately I don't think McCain's people are that dumb. Darn it.

No, that second paragraph in Nate's post is descri...

2008-08-24T02:35:00.000-04:00

No, that second paragraph in Nate's post is describing actual events (like supporting FISA). It's rather clear that Nate meant "not to accept public financing."