Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama's bounce in state polling

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2009-10-09T03:06:04.671-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:27:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:27:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:29:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T22:28:00.000-05:00

Let's see how objective this site really is. Rasm...

2008-06-19T10:16:00.000-04:00

Let's see how objective this site really is. Rasmussen has an Ohio poll out today, 6/19 showing McCain with 44% and Obama with 43%. In a Rasmussen poll of Ohio on 5/14, Obama had 44% and McCain had 45%.

Rasmussen also has a Florida poll out: McCain 47%, Obama 39%. A month ago, Rasmussen polled Florida and it was nearly the same, with McCain 50% and Obam 40%.

In terms of change, there's very little bounce in these two polls. Obama was -1 in Ohio a month ago and is still at -1 when just looking at margins. In Florida last month, Obama was -10, and now he is -8. Could they be outliers? Perhaps. But so might the Qpac polls from yesterday.

What percentage of the time in a race with a 1-4 %...

2008-06-18T19:24:00.000-04:00

What percentage of the time in a race with a 1-4 % popular vote margin does the winner of the popular vote also turn out to be the winner of the Electoral Vote?

For example, it could be that 65 % of the time that the popular vote margin is between 1 and 4, the popular vote winner also wins the Electoral College.

Also, I would think that Barack would be more likely to suffer this type of Al Gore defeat than McCain (I think it quite likely, of course, that Barack will win-- just saying that of the two it seems much more likely that it could happen to Obama).

Comments?

Answers?

thanx.

Can we see the Obama % and McCain % and undecided ...

2008-06-18T18:15:00.001-04:00

Can we see the Obama % and McCain % and undecided % changes for these states? In a lot of national polls, Obama has not gained (he's moved from 45% to 46% in the last 2-3 weeks). It is just that McCain has dropped from, for instance, 46% to 40% in alot of polls. How much of the bounce is a move away from McCain to undecided? And how much is a direct increase for Obama?

Nitpicky, but that should be MS, not MI. Goldwater...

2008-06-18T18:15:00.000-04:00

Nitpicky, but that should be MS, not MI. Goldwater definitely didn't carry MI.

From obsessed at 5:31 pm:LBJ won 49 and the stragg...

2008-06-18T17:50:00.000-04:00

From obsessed at 5:31 pm:

LBJ won 49 and the straggler was Arizona. I wonder what it is for the McCain nightmare scenario. Utah? I can't imagine AZ staying red if AL and UT go blue.

Ironic that McCain and Barry G are both senators from AZ.

Goldwater carried 6 states. SC,GA,AL,MI,LA as well as his home state of AZ.

Obama is unlikely to win 49 states.

Hmm, I bet that drop is because Utah is calculated...

2008-06-18T17:41:00.000-04:00

Hmm, I bet that drop is because Utah is calculated as a 0% win chance for Obama.

All who are skeptical about the "bounce"...Please ...

2008-06-18T17:40:00.000-04:00

All who are skeptical about the "bounce"...

Please note that the the Popular Vote bounce has been far more modest than that in EV's or Win%. Nate just recently posted about this: especially in a close race, the Electoral College serves to hugely magnify the margin of victory vis a vis the national totals. I think a look at popular vote totals in, say, '64, '72, or '84 would bear this out.

IIRC, the pop-vote pie on June 1-ish stood at exactly 50/50. Right now only 2.3% have switched (for a 4.6 net margin). So Nate's #'s in fact aren't at all outside the mainstream.

However, Nate: Isn't it unlikely in reality for McCain & Obama to total 100% of the pop vote? I'd think Nader, Barr & miscellaneous others would gather a percent or two, even if they don't affect the outcome.

Also, how do "undecided" numbers figure into the weighting/projection system?

There's a pretty simple reason why 538 is so high ...

2008-06-18T17:39:00.000-04:00

There's a pretty simple reason why 538 is so high in the distribution:

The algorithm is really about popular votes, which is then translated into electoral votes. I can imagine that even with just a 10% margin nationwide, you can potentially have a 538 EV win. While increasing margins are less and less likely, if you sum all those up it can still come to a fairly notable value.

In effect, the 'tail' of the graph that represents higher and higher popular vote margins in each state was cropped and lumped into the 538 EV category. This is a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system.

AL will be red i don't see how AL will go blue

2008-06-18T17:37:00.000-04:00

AL will be red

i don't see how AL will go blue

At the far right of the EV Distribution chart, the...

2008-06-18T17:31:00.000-04:00

At the far right of the EV Distribution chart, there's one lonely tall blue spike, not quite all the way to 538, and it looks like only one very short vertical line to the right of it. Apparently, there are various simulations where Obama wins 49 states but almost none where he wins 50. LBJ won 49 and the straggler was Arizona. I wonder what it is for the McCain nightmare scenario. Utah? I can't imagine AZ staying red if AL and UT go blue.

Ironic that McCain and Barry G are both senators from AZ.

Hi Natesomebode posted the following on another th...

2008-06-18T17:26:00.000-04:00

Hi Nate

somebode posted the following on another thread

//After your "We know less than we think" adjustments increased the variance of the results, perhaps you should increase the simulation size to smooth the distribution out a bit more. It won't really change the EV/win/vote numbers, but it will make the distribution itself a bit more aesthetically appealing.//

I fully agree with him.

Furthermore, there are some scenarios that only happen 0, 3 or 5 times in your simulation. Those percentages are a bit meaningless until you run your simulation, eg. 50000 times.
I hope your computer is able to handle that...

Anon@ 15:49 - Looking at the ARG site, I think the...

2008-06-18T17:16:00.000-04:00

Anon@ 15:49 - Looking at the ARG site, I think these are the first two polls of the National election that they've done; I think everything older was only for the primaries. Don't know how this affects the weighting, but I'm sure Nate does. (although it obviously means we don't have any older data to compare directly to).

oops !thats an old poll

2008-06-18T17:09:00.000-04:00

oops !

thats an old poll

Polls are all over the place. New Rasmussen poll s...

2008-06-18T17:07:00.000-04:00

Polls are all over the place. New Rasmussen poll shows McCain having an insignificant one point lead in Ohio. Jack- it is real.

AK poll is realrasmussenreportswow

2008-06-18T17:06:00.000-04:00

AK poll is real

rasmussenreports

wow

is the Rasmussen AK poll real ?can anybody confirm...

2008-06-18T17:04:00.000-04:00

is the Rasmussen AK poll real ?

can anybody confirm ?

New Ohio poll from Rasmussen. Basically a dead he...

2008-06-18T17:02:00.000-04:00

New Ohio poll from Rasmussen. Basically a dead heat, consistent with the most recent Rasmussen poll (5/15).

McCain 44
Obama 43

There is a Rasmussen AK poll! M: 45O: 41The good n...

2008-06-18T16:51:00.000-04:00

There is a Rasmussen AK poll!
M: 45
O: 41
The good news for Obama keeps rolling in.

Nate, I really enjoy your site. Keep up the good ...

2008-06-18T16:50:00.000-04:00

Nate, I really enjoy your site. Keep up the good work.

The sidebar has dropped the Pacific Coast states. Could you bring them back please? Thanks!

Hey Nate, Do you even use ARG? I don't see any of ...

2008-06-18T16:49:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate,

Do you even use ARG? I don't see any of the states having a ARG poll. If you do then there is a new FL and NH poll. Also a Rasmussen ME poll, a SUSA WI poll and a PPP VA poll. Please update again today!