Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition

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2009-11-03T03:02:54.449-05:00

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2009-10-12T04:06:26.031-04:00

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2009-09-06T03:36:52.999-04:00

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Please tell me when Grassley has not sounded like ...

2009-08-21T21:28:16.502-04:00

Please tell me when Grassley has not sounded like a wacko? He's from Iowa for goodness sakes

Is there indications, recent polling that would in...

2009-08-21T05:02:25.267-04:00

Is there indications, recent polling that would indicate perhaps that Grassley would be seen not so much as a surefire reelect the next time around. He does sound like a stubborn wacko to me at the moment. Does that resound in the public opinion of the Midwest State that voted Obama in with a comfy majority?

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2009-08-03T23:13:30.272-04:00

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In OH and KY. The Democratic Candidates are ambiti...

2009-07-31T09:44:01.987-04:00

In OH and KY. The Democratic Candidates are ambitious Statewide Elected Officials.
OH- Lee Fisher(Lt Governor) and Jennifer Brunner(Secretary of State).
KY- Dan Mongiardo(Lt Governor) and Jack Conway(Attorney General).
In OH- if either Fisher or Brunner loses in the primary . Both of their political careers are over.
In KY. If Mongiardo loses in the primary- He is likely to run for Governor in 2015. If Conway loses in the primary- He is likely to run for Governor in 2015. I think Ben Chandler should have ran for the US Senate in 2008 against Mitch McConnell. It would have been like Sherrod Brown running for the US Senate in 2006 against Mike DeWIne.

Bunning just packed it in. Both good and bad for K...

2009-07-27T16:42:50.462-04:00

Bunning just packed it in. Both good and bad for KY Dems. If there is a problem with Greyson's campaign, though, he won't now have a primary to expose it so Mongiardo or whomever could do so. I'd run the Lt Gov against the open seat and save the AG for running against McConnell in 2014, if I were in charge. Bredesen can replace Mongiardo with Bruce Lunsford for now who could then run for Gov in 2015.

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2009-07-22T03:48:47.071-04:00

It is doubtful that any of the Democratic Senate S...

2009-07-17T15:08:56.861-04:00

It is doubtful that any of the Democratic Senate Seats are going to switch parties.
CT- Dodd is vulnerable due to bad publicity- otherwise he is an elderstatesman statewide elected official. Simmons is a weak challenger.
DE- It depends on what Castle does. It is highly unlikely Castle runs.
CO- Bennett does not have a credible GOP challenger.
IL- Solid Blue State- Obama will be out there campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee is(Alexi Giannoulias)
NV- Reid does not have a credible GOP challenger. NVGOP is in shambles.
PA- Can Toomey exceed Santorum's performance.
NY- whoever wins the Democratic primary(Gillibrand or Maloney)will be favored to win in the General Election.
ND- Hoevan vs Dorgan matchup will be like Weld/Kerry Senate Race between popular Governor and popular incumbent Senator.
HI- Doubtful Linda Lingle will challenge Inouye.
AR(Lincoln),CA(Boxer),WA(Murray)and WI(Feingold)are unlikely to face top tier GOP Opposition.
The rest of the Democratic US Senators facing re-election are safe.

My 2010 US Senate Ranking. Safe Incumbent Hold. 36...

2009-07-17T14:58:20.323-04:00

My 2010 US Senate Ranking.
Safe Incumbent Hold.
36)ID(Crapo-R)
35)NY(Schumer-D)
34)UT(Bennett-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
32)IN(Bayh-D)
31)ND(Dorgan-D)
30)MD(Mikulski-D)
29)AL(Shelby-R)
28)VT(Leahy-D)
27)AZ(McCain-R)
26)HI(Inouye-D)
25)IA(Grassley-R)
24)SD(Thune-R)
23)AK(Murkowski-R)
22)SC(DeMint-R)
21)OK(Coburn-R)
20)GA(Isakson-R)
19)WI(Feingold-D)
Potentially Competitive/Incumbent Strongly Favored.
18)WA(Murray-D)
17)CA(Boxer-D)
16)AR(Lincoln-D)
15)NY(Gillibrand-D)
14)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
13)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
12)NV(Reid-D)
Competitive/narrow incumbent advantage.
11)PA(Specter-D)
10)LA(Vitter-R)
9)CO(Bennett-D)
8)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
7)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
6)NC(Burr-R)
Tossup
5)CT(Dodd-D)
4)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
Lean Takeover
2)KY(Bunning-R)
1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)

MO is an open seat battleground state which has the strong Democratic candidate vs a weak Republican candidate.
KY has two top tier Democratic challengers against a weak GOP incumbent.
OH is an open seat battleground state with a generic Democratic candidate vs an overhyped GOP candidate. If the race is about Bush43 or Portman's view on Free Trade- Portman loses.
NH- open seat in battleground state between generic Democratic candidate vs a moderate Republican candidate in mold of Collins/Snowe.
CT- Dodd is a weak Democratic incumbent facing re-election due to bad publicity. This race has a potential of moving to the safe collumn.
NC- Burr is a weak GOP incumbent. Can lose to a second tier Democratic challenger.
DE- It all depends on Mike Castle- If Castle runs- DE is competitive. If Castle does not run. DE is safe for Biden.
IL- The race is competive but Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias is favored to win due to ties to Obama.
CO- Bennett is safe due to lack of opposition but vulnerable due to lack of name recognition.

My 2010 US Senate Ranking. (Top 10) 1)MO- This is ...

2009-07-17T11:16:54.205-04:00

My 2010 US Senate Ranking. (Top 10)
1)MO- This is going to be like 2006 Pennslyvania US Senate Race.,- Democrats have nominated a popular statewide elected official with a household last name(Carnahan name is huge in MO.). The Republican nominee Roy Blunt is a polarizing figure.
2)KY- The Republican incumbent Jim Bunning is weak in the similar situation as Rick Santorum(PA-2006)or Conrad Burns(MT-2006). Democrats have two popular statewide elected officials.(AG Jack Conway or LG Dan Mongiardo).
3)NH- Open Seat in State Trending Blue. Democratic Nominee Paul Hodes is likely to benifit from Governor John Lynch's Coattails.
4)OH- Battleground Senate Race between- a former Republican US Congressman who served in the Cabinet of a unpopular former President and is a free trader vs. a Democratic Statewide Elected Official(LG Lee Fisher or S.O.S Jennifer Brunner).
5)CT- Dodd is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election in 2010.
6)DE- It all depends on Mike Castle-R. Castle runs- It is a tossup. If Castle does not run. Safe Biden.
7)NC- Burr has low approval ratings and seat changes parties- Need a credible Democratic challenger.
8)CO- Bennett is appointed. Low name recognition. May face primary challenge. Republicans have yet to field Top Tier challenger.
9)IL- OPEN Seat in Blue State between two top tier candidates from both parties. Democratic Nominee Alexi Giannoulias- State Treasurer/F.O.B- Republican Nominee- US Rep Mark Kirk. Leans Democratic.
10)LA- Fairly polarizing GOP incumbent vs Credible Democratic Challenger- Charlie Melancon- but state is too red to elect a Democrat to the US Senate.

I'm not so sure that Chris Dodd's seat should be s...

2009-07-15T18:28:06.854-04:00

I'm not so sure that Chris Dodd's seat should be so high up on the list as far as chance of switching parties goes. Yes, at one point he polled on parity with Simmons, but that was when he was taking the most heat. Now he's been very visible on health care reform, and putting a lot of face time in various parts of the state. Don't forget that he's an able fundraiser and will likely have a huge monetary advantage over his GOP opponent even if that person gets propped up with RNC money.

16. DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS! That is ...

2009-07-14T23:07:08.922-04:00

16. DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS!

That is all.

Check Bob Krause against Chuck Grassley. His web s...

2009-07-14T21:52:11.467-04:00

Check Bob Krause against Chuck Grassley. His web site at http://www.krauseforiowa.com is getting about 250 hits per day with no money and no advertising. The "Health Care for America" group and many others are beating Grassly up badly in the Health Care debate - especially for his remark stating that "if you want good health care insurance, go to work for the federal government!"

How is this for irony: Coburn took some time deci...

2009-07-14T02:44:46.307-04:00

How is this for irony:

Coburn took some time deciding whether to run or not (and if he hadn't Democrats would have had an excellent chance to pick up the seat with Governor Henry.)

Then not long after he decided that he would in fact run, he got spattered with collateral crap from the Ensign scandal (though Coburn himself certainly was not in any way involved with it.)

Now, if he hadn't decided when he did it would have been much tougher to announce he was going to run within the past couple of weeks, or for that matter while the scandal keeps unfolding so therefore if he hadn't decided when he did to run the news might be giving him a push the other way.

Bennett ought to make a better case for himself, i...

2009-07-14T00:25:22.394-04:00

Bennett ought to make a better case for himself, if his record in Denver is to guess off of...he seems pretty clean cut and clean of political crapola, which Coloradans have little appetite for.

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Interesting - I didn't think that Nate read the co...

2009-07-13T23:41:11.881-04:00

Interesting - I didn't think that Nate read the comments anymore, but in the thread where he suggested that 5 out of the top 10 were Republican pick ups, I argued that it would be hard to justify ranking Nevada above NC, LA and TX. Sure enough, Nate rethought that one. Of course, he might have come to the same conclusion independently.

I think that I agree with these rankings more than any of those of recent months. My list would probably be this:

1. MO - should have been a toss up, but Blount seems like a pretty weak candidate
2. NH - I know that Republicans are excited to recruit Ayotte, but she has never been elected to anything whereas Hodes represents half of the state. Plus NH is trending Dem.
3. KY - Bunning looks dead in the water, but I think it substantially more likely that Greyson will end up being the R nominee and he should have a 50-50 chance at worst.
4. OH - Portman will be a credible candidate, but I don't seem being a former Bush Trade Rep as a good profile for running in OH. Portman should do well in Southwest and West Central OH, but may have trouble in the rest of the state. So I see the Dems as having a slight edge at this point.
5. CT - Dodd is in trouble, but winning as a Rep in CT is still very hard. And Foley could mess things up for Simmons who would be a stronger opponent. Dodd could really use a health care victory to run on.
6. CO - Bennet will probably end up being OK and if the Republicans don't find a credible challanger this could move down the list.
7. NC - Looks like the Dems might not get a top tier recruit. On the other hand, if 2008 is any guide, they might not need one. Of course, with any relatively untested candidate like Cunningham, there is a risk that they will turn out to be a dud. I'm tempted to put it ahead of CO, but it is hard to say since much depends on the political climate in 2010.
8. IL - Kirk looks like a credible candidate. Dems should be favored to hold though, absent scandal or extremely unfavorable climate.
9. DE - I'm far from convinced that Castle will run. I also would not put too much stock in recent polls showing him leading Biden by a substantial margin. Biden will have lots of money and an appealing story (serving in Iraq) as well as great connections. Castle is old and hasn't been raising huge amounts of money. I might put it at 6 if I knew that Castle were running. Otherwise it drops off the list.
10 - LA A real uphilll fight for Dems under any other circumstances, but they got their top candidate, so it should be close at least. Getting to 50.001% from 46% or 47% might be hard though . . .
11 -TX Maybe I should rank this higher, but Dems haven't done too well in state wide races in TX recently so I'm a bit hesistent to do so. Hutchison is running for Gov - she just reaffirmed it today.
12 - NV Reid poll numbers are weak, but there is no other indication that the Republicans are going to win. Even worse Ensigns troubles will encourage potential candidates to wait for 2012 when there might be an open seat.
13 - PA Toomey isn't well known yet, but has lots of money. Dem primary could be ugly. Toomey would have a hard time against either Specter or Sestak given their strengths in suburban Philly, but I wouldn't count him out. I know that some people think that he is too extreme to win in PA, but remember that PA elected Rick Santorum twice.
14 - ND Competitive if Hoeven runs. More than you can say for most other races below this point.
15 - AR In a bad political environment for the Dems, this one could get competitive. Lincoln should be safe in a neutral environment, but the state does seem to be trending R.

Yikes I hope Shirley Franklin isn't running!

2009-07-13T22:54:40.818-04:00

Yikes I hope Shirley Franklin isn't running!

Nate, how come the Georgia race is ranked so high?...

2009-07-13T22:40:34.131-04:00

Nate, how come the Georgia race is ranked so high? You always have it somewhere in the low 20s but with no comment explaining this. Do you know something we don't? Is Shirley Franklin running and hasn't told anyone yet?

Most of the "rich guys" in Connecticut live in Fai...

2009-07-13T20:24:51.961-04:00

Most of the "rich guys" in Connecticut live in Fairfield County and consider themselves expatriate New Yorkers. They don't care about Connecticut and those of us who grew up here know it.

I agree with anelson, Dodd should be reelected with no problem. His is an old political family here in the state and while he'll certainly take a hit, he's a native son that won't be tossed aside easily.

Ayotte in NH is getting a lot of buzz from politic...

2009-07-13T19:42:09.748-04:00

Ayotte in NH is getting a lot of buzz from politicos close to current Sen. Judd Gregg. She doesn't get much recognition from voters. In NH Attorney General is an appointed position, not elected. She has never been tested running for any office.

The survey mention was pretty flawed. It polled more Republican voters than Democrats or Independents. That voter ID does not match current reality. There are now more registered Democrats than Republicans in NH, and Independents outnumber both.

Ayotte will also face a perception problem. She was reappointed to another 4 year term as AG in April, and now she is "pulling a Palin" Many here see her move as abandoning her responsibilities in her quest for higher office. Democratic Gov. John Lynch took some heat from his own party when he reappointed her just over 3 months ago - a bipartisan move on his part that recognized her solid work as AG. Now she's ditching her job, a job that lobbied for an happily accepted 3 months into a 4 year term. This will not play well with Democrats, nor with many Independents. She can't win with just Republican votes.

Her claims that she "intended" to complete the 4 year term, but the climate has changed so drastically are disingenuous. The fact that Gregg wasn't running was known back in Jan. While Sununu the Younger sitting out this race creates room on the Republican side, it still makes her look power hungry to ditch the AG job.

Nate, At what point in the rankings is the cut-of...

2009-07-13T18:10:12.122-04:00

Nate,

At what point in the rankings is the cut-off point of 'reasonable' possibility of change and no chance without extraordinary conditions?

I ask this because I can't believe that Senator Mikulski, a VERY popular Democrat running in a VERY heavily Democratic state, is ranked 5 places ahead of Senator Bayh, a popular Democrat running in a heavily Republican state (Indiana is tending to purple, but is STILL a red state, people).

If the rankings are by point differential, I can see a listing of all seats in some order. However, I still think that the method needs some tweeking.

At what point does the point differential become meaningless? At No. 10/11? At No. 15/16? 20/21? And why don't you indicate that in the rankings?

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Nice Job, though a little bit late. But, in the ne...

2009-07-13T17:40:02.140-04:00

Nice Job, though a little bit late. But, in the next senate rankings could you please make a summary on your thoughts. Like if this month was a good month or a bad month dems or reps. Or just some sort of conclusion. I look forward to your next senate rankings!
Mark

I can't imagine that Burris' decision to retire do...

2009-07-13T16:25:22.988-04:00

I can't imagine that Burris' decision to retire doesn't decrease the likelihood of a party switch. Removing Burris and his tainted appointment from the Democratic primary makes it far less likely that any Republican challenger will be able to make hay from the controversy. And without that controversy high in voters' minds what is the chance of Obama's seat going to a Republican? I just don't see it.