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Although I'm unlikely to vote for either Obama or ...

2008-06-03T17:04:00.000-04:00

Although I'm unlikely to vote for either Obama or Clinton, I think the way the Democrats count delegates has evolved slowly to a point of impracticality, as shown by this campaign. There should be some core tenets for delegates (for either party...).

Delegates for 2012 should be weighted based on:

1. 70-75% of delegates should be by congressional district, 25-30% (e.g. the current superdelegate people) should be WTA statewide.

2. The number of electoral votes in a congressional district should be based on:
- the number of actual Democratic voters in recent past presidential and congressional elections e.g. 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004
- whether the state won in 2008 and 2004

3. Get rid of the superdelegates. My understanding was that they could step in and "correct" close campaigns, and 2008 has demonstrated the peril of actually doing so.

4. Even more explicit penalties for moving the primary, but being aware that you don't want to give the other party too much ammunition to force a move.

Good points, Lisa.I don't think I'd axe supers com...

2008-06-03T17:00:00.000-04:00

Good points, Lisa.

I don't think I'd axe supers completely--as Jay Cost points out, a nomination process must have a way to break ties (the Republican delegates are only bound on the first vote, for example). I'd sharply reduce the size of that pool though--from 20% of delegates to perhaps 5%. Then they could be a small voting bloc but not a way to overturn a large pledged delegate majority.

Agreement on simple codification of the process. Hard rules for states and candidates regarding cutting in line, a bit of process simplification, perhaps.

The comments on "hysterical" are a little, well, h...

2008-06-03T16:48:00.000-04:00

The comments on "hysterical" are a little, well, hysterical. While there might have been a sexism argument if Poblano had called Hillary hysterical, he never made such a claim. Read it again ("I find the whole discussion about what Hillary Clinton will or will not do tonight to be a little bit hysterical"). The subject of that adjective is the discussion fueled by the apoplectic cable news punditry.

I'm all for being careful about words that have taken on unfortunate connotations in certain usage (e.g. articulate, hysterical), but I'm not about to throw those words out altogether. Just as I don't see a problem with someone calling 538 an articulate blog, I don't have a problem with someone calling cable news talking heads hysterical (since in both cases the descriptions are accurate, and in context, free of bigoted connotations).

On the off chance that I'm missing intended irony, my apologies to those of you who have raised the issue (Anon at 2:04 and Audient).

I wouldn't go to raise a fuss or wave an Obama sig...

2008-06-03T16:41:00.000-04:00

I wouldn't go to raise a fuss or wave an Obama sign. Just to see it go down. Hell she'd like that - it'd make her audience look bigger.

I've seen Ms. Clinton give a speech before ... a few years back - she gave a speech for a convention thing for my job at the time... the next year it was Elliot Spitzer, actually.

Well that's completely unrelated.

As far as Clinton supporters in Denver - I wouldn't be surprised if there are some - but I think there will be a lot more Ron Paul supporters at the GOP convention!

---

Also re: "hysterical" - I think it's funny that the Clinton team/supporters keep saying that the Obama side is playing the "race card" yet they get upset by things like that.

To MysterioMusic: Please don't go. This is Hillar...

2008-06-03T16:36:00.000-04:00

To MysterioMusic: Please don't go. This is Hillary Clinton's time. Alot of people support her strongly and if you show up to spoil the fun, then the same could happen in Denver for Obama.

I live in NYC, I should go see her speech tonight ...

2008-06-03T16:33:00.000-04:00

I live in NYC, I should go see her speech tonight - I would love to be there when she finally concedes. I cannot wait to finally get to concentrate entirely on the general election. Clinton should be ashamed of herself for all of the energy she has sapped out of the Dems.

I think the only positive of all of this is that Obama has already been through hell - and so many BS negative stories against him have already been brought up that he's gained a very thick skin of teflon.

Rather than the term "hysterical," which is sexist...

2008-06-03T16:02:00.000-04:00

Rather than the term "hysterical," which is sexist, I suggest using the term "syphilic rant," which can describe either of the Clintons spouting off without regard to his or her respective sex (thanks to Bill's lack of regard with respect to sex).

Hi, Alex,I didn't say I thought they should chan...

2008-06-03T16:01:00.000-04:00

Hi, Alex,

I didn't say I thought they *should* change things. I just think they *will* change things. We live in a very reactionary (rather than pro-active) society, and I think as a reaction to this chaotic season we'll see some changes.

After all, the whole reason the DNC is in the mess it's in is due to a reaction to the messes in 68 and 72. The DNC decided to fix the system and go with this Superdelegate thing. Now we know that this only resulted in a whole new set of problems...so they'll fix the fix.

If it were up to me, and seeing as how I'm not a Democrat I doubt very much that will be the case, I would axe the Superdelegates. Nothing good can come of a group of elites with the power to overturn the vote of the populace. Now, whether the Dems want to go with winner-take-all (which certainly has certain advantages) instead of a proportional system is up to them.

I would also have it stated in writing that pledged delegates are not "for sale" to other candidates, and perhaps establish ahead of time a penalty for states that violate primary regulations.

I also think - if they're going to tweak - they need to review what made the primary process so difficult in 68 and 72 to try to come up with one solution that addresses the complications of 68, 72, and 08.

Regardless of what specifically changes, I do think *something* will change, because it's just human nature to try to fix what's busted, so to speak.

Anon-MI writes:My guess would be that there's a hu...

2008-06-03T15:55:00.000-04:00

Anon-MI writes:

My guess would be that there's a huge premium to having activist boots on the ground in primary states to promote GOTV as well as general campaign presence; and that if those states had run primaries rather than caucuses they'd have figured out how to optimize the allocation of resources for that purpose.

Those who want to eliminate the caucuses ignore th...

2008-06-03T15:50:00.001-04:00

Those who want to eliminate the caucuses ignore the most important aspect of a victory in November which is activist boots on the grounds.

Obama won this nomination largely because he had more enthusiastic supporters as reflected in caucuses in WA, CO, ME and MN.

You will see an army of organized volunteers never seen before an election in the US. How do you think W won Ohio in 2004? with volunteers and a highly sophisticated network of outreach. Our campaign will dwarf them.

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Anon-MI writes:What to change, what to keep?Change...

2008-06-03T15:41:00.000-04:00

Anon-MI writes:

What to change, what to keep?

Change:

1. Caucus vs. Primary: No more caucuses.

2. Superdelegates: Keep same number of SD positions, but reduce all SuperDelegates to 1/2-votes. This would make them feel less self-important individually as well as reduce their collective importance.

Keep:

1. PR vs. Winner Take All: Keep PR delegate assignments, which ultimately are fairer (and especially fairer than plurality winner takes all). Assign all delegates by CD; none at the state-level. But use a 1/2 delegate formula, so there is less "rounding error" and greater proportionality.

Comment:

It took our media a long time to figure out that the Democrats weren't using winner-take-all. (It took some time for a few of Clinton's team to realize it, too, unfortunately.) But most of the democratic world uses some form of PR representation.

Lisa & Alex: Thanks for the information, Lisa. Pen...

2008-06-03T15:38:00.000-04:00

Lisa & Alex: Thanks for the information, Lisa. Penalties for unfaithful pledged delegates should be one of those things the DNC considers when they revamp the primaries for 2012. Off the top of my head, other things the DNC needs to change or add to their primary rules: the removal of superdelegates, a clear rule regarding penalties for states which disobey the Feb 5th rule regarding primary dates, a clear list of how candidates should behave in states which disobey the feb 5th rule (including whether or not to take your name off the ballot), and a demand that all states count the total vote (including caucus states).

On top of that, ideally it would be best to have only primaries (since caucuses severely reduce turnout) and allow the nominee to be decided by the popular vote. Delegates would still be elected to vote on other issues at the convention, like the party platform. Unfortunately, since the state parties decide on their own election procedures, and a few states are proud of their caucus tradition, we will probably still have a mixed primary-caucus system in 2012.

Jivas and Anon: Rumours of this video have been around for a while, but no one has claimed to have seen it. Larry Johnson, who's been the principal figure pushing the rumour doesn't even claim second hand knowledge of it. This is an honest to god quote from his site: "I have not seen [the video] but I have heard from five separate sources who have spoken directly with people who have seen the tape."

Wow! So a friend of a friend of his saw it! That means it's totally true!

Nick, you're entirely correct that in mid-March th...

2008-06-03T15:16:00.000-04:00

Nick, you're entirely correct that in mid-March the derivative of the super endorsements was already strongly towards Obama, even though the absolute number had not yet broken in his favor on account of HIllary's huge head start. Which is what made it possible to forecast how the race would turn out even though in principle she could have swept the supers.

It's kind of amazing actually just how much of the endgame for the race was predictable already after Super Tuesday.

Anyway, at this point it isn't Clinton conceding or not conceding that really matters. What matters is endorsing. When, how and how strongly she endorses Obama is the last arrow she has in the quiver. Wish I could be a fly on the wall (or in the conference call) for those negotiations.