Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Contemplating the Unity Bounce

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2009-09-06T04:05:40.716-04:00

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2009-03-11T03:26:00.000-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T03:25:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-10T06:26:00.000-05:00

*Recently an insurance company nearly wind up....A...

2008-10-05T02:19:00.000-04:00

*

Recently an insurance company nearly wind up....

A bank is nearly bankrupt......

How it affect you? Did you buy insurance? Did you buy mini note or bonds?

Who fault?

They bailout trouble finance company, but they will not bail out your credit card bills……You got no choice, and no point pointing finger but you can prevent similar things from happen again……

The top management of the Public listed company ( belong to "public" ) salary should be tied a portion of it to the shares price ( IPO or ave 5 years ).... so when the shares price drop, it don't just penalise the investors, but those who don't take care of the company.....If this rule is pass on, without any need of further regulation, all industries ( as long as it is public listed ) will be self regulated......because the top management will be concern about their own pay check……
Some might feel that it sound stupid….. as there is long and Short position…but in reality there is still many different caliber CEO…..so there is still long and short…..They can ban short selling definitely they can do something about this.......

Are you a partisan?

Sign a petition to your favourite president candidate, congress member, House of representative again and ask for their views to comment on this, and what regulations they are going to raise for implementation.....If you agree on my point, please share with many people as possible.... Finance and Media are the two only industries can shaken politics ( Maybe Hackers can ), please help to highlight also...

http://remindmyselfinstock.blogspot.com/

I think it's a falsehood to claim McCain is 'moder...

2008-05-15T22:33:00.000-04:00

I think it's a falsehood to claim McCain is 'moderate' or that he appeals to independents in any way other than a very shallow analysis.

Er, keeping in mind. Freudian slip.

2008-04-14T10:25:00.000-04:00

Er, keeping in *mind.* Freudian slip.

I think what makes things hard to predict is the f...

2008-04-14T10:24:00.000-04:00

I think what makes things hard to predict is the fact that McCain is so moderate, which is why people say they might defect to him in the first place.

An analogy: imagine if this was a stretched out Republican primary between Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter, and the Democrats had already nominated Joe Lieberman. In such a scenario, it's likely that whoever got the nomination, many of their supporters would defect to Lieberman for one reason or another.

On the other hand, party loyalty is much stronger for the Democrats than for the Republicans (for good or ill), which is worth keeping in line.

My balls are bouncing

2008-04-11T16:30:00.000-04:00

My balls are bouncing

Hey how'd you end up adding 5.2% to Obama's number...

2008-04-11T15:24:00.000-04:00

Hey how'd you end up adding 5.2% to Obama's number in Ohio? Shouldn't you just add 2.6 and subtract 2.6 from McCain? I suppose it all amounts to the same in the end...

Hm... I wonder that Obama still loses 27% of the e...

2008-04-11T12:58:00.000-04:00

Hm... I wonder that Obama still loses 27% of the elections when he gains 4,8% in average. I did the same for Clinton (PartyID*Obamas Primary Result*9,5%*2) and with that numbers added, she wins 97% of the elections with an average Popular VOte percentage of 54,1 and an average Electoral Vote of 373 EV.

And that is REALLY too much.
Maybe I made an error, but I don´t think so... It´s hard to do something wrong there^^

Appreciate the analysis, even if the numbers are p...

2008-04-11T12:49:00.000-04:00

Appreciate the analysis, even if the numbers are pretty rough. But, I really think you nail it with respect to the race dynamics and how Clinton's supporters may react. I wish every Obama supporter were as sensitive to this as you.

Another argument for the Democratic unity bounce, ...

2008-04-11T12:08:00.000-04:00

Another argument for the Democratic unity bounce, is to look at the way that McCain benefited once he wrapped up the nomination. Poblano's "Win Percentage Tracker" shows McCain as faring increasingly better against either Democrat from March 5, when McCain cinched the nomination.

It's also worth remembering that it was widely debated whether Republicans would be able to unify around their candidate, in what had become a bitter contest, with factions of the party announcing that they would not support McCain if he got the nod. Where are those people now?

(posted this on your dkos diary)How accurate is th...

2008-04-11T11:55:00.000-04:00

(posted this on your dkos diary)

How accurate is that 28% number? It changes significantly by both state and poll. Another interesting thing to see if what would the electorate be if Obama took the same % of Democrats and Republicans in every state that Kerry had. I wonder if the party registrations have changed enough to change the EC map by itself.

Shouldn't Alaska be paler red more like ND?South C...

2008-04-11T09:39:00.000-04:00

Shouldn't Alaska be paler red more like ND?

South Carolina as well.

I'm just eyeballing it, but it looks like if the unity bounce is really that big it would put those states in play.

And pablano

With your unity bounce you are still anticipating that Obama's support among Democrats in the GE will be some of the lowest in the past several decades.

Remember GWB got 10% support from Dems v Kerry. IIRC v Gore that was 8%. Here you are predicting some where between 10-14% support for McCain from Dems and yet still a landslide.

So do you really think that the unity bounce would result in McCain getting nearly as much support from Dems as Reagan got in 1980?

I suspect that Clinton would fare rather worse in ...

2008-04-11T08:24:00.000-04:00

I suspect that Clinton would fare rather worse in such a simulation. Her strength lies in core states that Obama would also manage to acquire from the bounce. Obama, on the other hand, fares well in many states in which the bounce puts him over the top. Hillary's map would really only bring Arkansas and West Virginia (11 EV) to her column reliably, but she would lose so many other states at least half the time, Nevada and Wisconsin (15 EV) much of the time, and probably New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado (20 EV) almost all the time.

Good on you, Pittsburgh Kid. In the IMHO unlikely ...

2008-04-11T07:46:00.000-04:00

Good on you, Pittsburgh Kid. In the IMHO unlikely chance that Clinton gets the nom, I'll be voting for her, albeit purely out of party loyalty. Whatever beats McCain.

It would be very interesting, Poblano, to see what would happen if you backed out the simulation the same way and ran the bounce Clinton would get. It might be harder to estimate the number of Obama supporters who would refuse to vote for Clinton, and how many of them would stay home rather than vote for McCain. It would still be quite an interesting idea.

Thanks for this analysis. I agree with your assess...

2008-04-11T05:38:00.000-04:00

Thanks for this analysis.

I agree with your assessments. Even though, this race is virtually wrapped up, there is no reason for HRC to drop out until she loses again.

I also think that if she was the nominee, she would get the bounce in WI, WA and OR. I don't think that the dems in those states would vote for McCain over her.

I am voting for HRC in PA in 10 days because I think that she would be best for the job but I will gladly vote for BO in the fall.