Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Source: It's Not Pawlenty

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2009-10-08T04:47:50.641-04:00

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2009-09-22T02:26:19.086-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:02:00.000-05:00

Talking heads ...blah blah ... insiders spewing of...

2008-08-29T12:18:00.000-04:00

Talking heads ...blah blah ... insiders spewing off talking points blah blah .... America will decide if they like Palin and my bet is she's going to be liked.

charles wrote:Local Twin Cities media is reporting...

2008-08-29T12:00:00.000-04:00

charles wrote:
Local Twin Cities media is reporting pretty heavily that Pawlenty will be at the Minnesota State Fair today. For what it's worth.

Yeah, and I'll be there, too. For what it's worth.
Most Minnesota politicians go to the MN State Fair. Don't read too much into it.

eve wrote:She will not depress enthusiasm for Obam...

2008-08-29T11:52:00.000-04:00

eve wrote:
She will not depress enthusiasm for Obama. You are kidding yourself. Republicans might like her, but people don't vote for veep. They vote for the nominee.

I agree. She's a Republican Ferraro.
And with McCain's age such an issue, Republicans will really have to ask themselves if they are comfortable with a woman commander-in-chief, especially one with so little experience. Women, too, will have to ask themselves if Palin is really the woman they would want as the first woman President in case McCain dies in office. I think they will conclude she would set a poor precedent.

McCain has squeezed everything he can get out of the "PUMA issue"; there's nothing more left in that well after the convention. Hillary's endorsement of Obama will carry far more weight with women than Palin would.

She might be the best choice of a bad lot, but don't over-sell her. There's no gold there for McCain.

Alaska no longer a swing state? darn .. back to th...

2008-08-29T11:21:00.000-04:00

Alaska no longer a swing state? darn .. back to the drawing board for thedems :)

if it is Palin...well, first things that come to m...

2008-08-29T11:14:00.000-04:00

if it is Palin...well, first things that come to mind

1)Forget Obama using Palin's lack of experience against her - that's not important - it means that McCain weakens dramatically the use of inexperience against Obama.
2)Some women will now be more likely to vote for McCain/Palin.
3)Some men will now be more likely to vote for Obama/Biden.
4)It reinforces McCains Maverick (TM) image, which is nonsense but widely believed it seems.

Overall? Decent choice, it's a gamble but McCain needs to gamble or he's toast. However, she hasn't been vetted much at all, has a scandal already hanging over her head and the images of her next to McCain will be...interesting.

If it fails, expect McCain to get absolutely smashed now, a swing of even a couple of percent against him could cause him major problems.

Intrade is very confident (97.6% right this moment...

2008-08-29T11:06:00.000-04:00

Intrade is very confident (97.6% right this moment) that Palin is the pick. Bad news for Obama. A charismatic woman will pull away PUMA-types in a big way, and her popularity in Alaska will definitely pull it out of the "swing state" list.

The only thing is Palin's currently got a minor scandal going on where Palin tried to get her brother-in-law fired from his job as a state trooper, and ended up dumping the state Public Safety Commissioner because he wouldn't fire the brother-in-law. Obama better hope this scandal has some legs...

Otherwise, I think we just found out the name of the first woman President, and her initials ain't HRC.

So, it will be Sarah Palin. I thought she'd fallen...

2008-08-29T11:02:00.000-04:00

So, it will be Sarah Palin. I thought she'd fallen off the radar entirely.

The VP debate should be interesting. Whereas Obama, in picking Biden, chose someone whom he could not *present* to the public, someone whose mainstream image is not malleable, McCain's choice of Palin allows that ticket to mold the veep in the public consciousness, to trot her out and introduce her in any way the campaign sees fit. That could be a definite advantage.

In the spirit of objectivity, I have to say I think it's a good pick. I don't think it's devastating to the Democrats; I don't think McCain is going to be able to bang his hand down on his desk and scream "HA! BEAT THAT!" but I think it's a better pick than Romney, Ridge, Pawlenty, Lieberman, or Huckabee, mostly due to its sheer unorthodoxy.

The other thing to watch will be how the two play off of each other. The combination of a short, stocky, pasty old man and a, well, a MILF with a predilection for wearing Tina Fey's eyeglasses, could come off looking either really awkward or like a good visual depiction of the GOP torch-passing.

hmm interesting pick. But Sarah Palin a heartbeat ...

2008-08-29T11:01:00.000-04:00

hmm interesting pick. But Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency? Esp with mcCain at 72yr old w/ history of cancer? Boy .. I wonder if this will become part of the debate.

At least its not a boring pick though .. I want to see the female reaction.

Come on Obama people - her time as mayor equals Ob...

2008-08-29T11:00:00.000-04:00

Come on Obama people - her time as mayor equals Obama's state senate experience, her time a governor equals his Senate experience. Bring on the experience debate ... please!

PALIN!!!! Is a genius pick. I'm bouncing off the w...

2008-08-29T10:58:00.000-04:00

PALIN!!!! Is a genius pick. I'm bouncing off the walls with this pick.

Obama and the Ds scored a 9 in Denver. Their convention went about as well as could be hoped.

Palin negates this bounce.

Palin! Thanks for the gift to the Democratic Part...

2008-08-29T10:54:00.000-04:00

Palin! Thanks for the gift to the Democratic Party, McCain!!

And happy 72nd birthday, McSame. You will look great standing next to a 44 year old younger than some of your kids.

Of course, this isn't the first time you've dumped someone for a younger woman.

I can't wait for the debates with Biden.

DarienCrow said... Do you guys even think about wh...

2008-08-29T10:48:00.000-04:00

DarienCrow said...
Do you guys even think about what you are posting before you click the button?

Do you honestly believe that John McCain offers Sarah Palin to be Vice President of the United States and she turns him down...

BECAUSE SHE CAN'T FIND A SITTER?

This is a child who has immune deficiencies, and is likely to go blind or deaf or both due to the illnesses. Even Death sometimes occurs.

What's she supposed to do? Dump the kid on a sitter for three months? Shake hands with a few thousand people and if she gets sick and passes the illness to her child, what the hell, she can always have another kid?

Once the kid is 3 or 4 years old, Palin could get away with it. Right now, the kid is nursing, and formula isn't a good choice for a kid with immune deficiencies. Both the child and the person doing the nursing should avoid contact with other people as much as they're able. So dump on a wet nurse and go jet-setting, or stay with the kid as much as you can, and don't go campaigning.

Seems like an easy choice to me.

"Sen. John McCain picks Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as...

2008-08-29T10:40:00.000-04:00

"Sen. John McCain picks Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate on GOP ticket for White House, CNN learns."

Personally, I would like to see McCain pick Colin ...

2008-08-29T10:38:00.000-04:00

Personally, I would like to see McCain pick Colin Powell. I think this would be an excellent choice. Moreover, Powell is an independent thinker. Although I am pretty sure he feels ticked off being lied to by the Bush Administration, and in particular all of the false intelligence reports he was given leading to the war in Iraq.

Although I am a Republican, I am on on the sidelines right now. I am not sure whom to support at the moment. I saw the speech by Obama, and thought it was pretty damn good.

Anyway, I hope McCain picks Colin Powell. I think this would be his best choice.

So McCain's rally is at"Wright State University's ...

2008-08-29T10:36:00.000-04:00

So McCain's rally is at

"Wright State University's Nutter Center"

LOL. Why not just have it at the local asylum?

Do you guys even think about what you are posting ...

2008-08-29T10:32:00.000-04:00

Do you guys even think about what you are posting before you click the button?

Do you honestly believe that John McCain offers Sarah Palin to be Vice President of the United States and she turns him down...

BECAUSE SHE CAN'T FIND A SITTER?

I know you are not talking about day care, but she...

2008-08-29T10:10:00.000-04:00

I know you are not talking about day care, but she would be gone a lot.

To the groups I am referring to, support from friends and family is wonderful but they aren't big on mom's working. period

But it doesn't matter. It's very unlikely she is the pick since she is not in Ohio.

"Do you have any idea how that would play with the...

2008-08-29T10:05:00.000-04:00

"Do you have any idea how that would play with the evangelical base?"

Yes.

Many in the evangelical base have large families, like Palin. Grandmothers, aunts and uncles pitching in the take care of children is pretty common... and the kid does also have a father after all.

I'm not talking about "day-care" when I say "support network'

"I'm sure that someone of her prominence would hav...

2008-08-29T09:58:00.000-04:00

"I'm sure that someone of her prominence would have a strong support network to help her take care of the child during the campaign."

Do you have any idea how that would play with the evangelical base? Or a lot of the rest of the base? Many, many would be critical of her having any job with a young infant and other children still at home.

My republican neighbor with 2 toddlers got all tense and scowl-ly when I accidentally said "day care" to her when I meant the church's mother's day out program.

Down's Syndrome babies tend to have very poor immu...

2008-08-29T09:55:00.000-04:00

Down's Syndrome babies tend to have very poor immune systems. You don't want to fly the kid all over the place.

She could, of course, just dump a 3 month old baby off on a nurse in Alaska and show up every few weeks to make sure he's still alive. Very nuturing, I'm sure.

On another note...Rasmussen has a minimal bounce so far, basically that horrible Monday just dropping off. We'll see if it improves tomorrow.