Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: What Barack Obama Needs to Win

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2009-10-08T07:06:36.287-04:00

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2009-09-11T03:01:09.056-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:05:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:05:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:19:00.000-05:00

Your analysis is on the mark, but as soft as Obama...

2008-07-26T16:29:00.000-04:00

Your analysis is on the mark, but as soft as Obama's so-called supporters on the cable talk shows.

We are long past the time when the word LIAR should be used to characterize McCain when he "misstates" the facts when calling Obama both a liar and a traitor for saying the Sunni Awakening happened without the Surge. McCain was either lying or ignorant, and since he asserts his expertise on foreign affairs, McCain must be lying.

Which Presidential candidate was willing to abandon the hunt for Osama bin Laden, trading our primary national security interests and the memory of 3000 dead civilians for a war of choice that has destabilized the region by strengthening Israel's biggest enemy, Iraq? McCain.

What would have happened if President Kennedy had simply taken the advice of his generals and attacked Cuba in 1962? Nuclear weapons falling on Miami. Which decision would McCain make?

Why are oil prices high? Because of a war in the m...

2008-07-26T02:47:00.000-04:00

Why are oil prices high? Because of a war in the middle east and falling dollar due to a huge foreign debt.Thats all that needs to be said.
What is John McCains solution? To desperately drill more and more of the ocean bed in the HOPE of finding something. ie he is hoping to find something to pay for his hundred year war which he knows is driving up oil prices and bankrupting the economy.
I am sure most people would be able to follow this argument.

Obama needs to gear up and get his game on, certai...

2008-07-25T19:33:00.000-04:00

Obama needs to gear up and get his game on, certainly. Once he gets back to the home turf, he needs to campaign harder and stretch the margin further. Vote for Obama! Visit WHYOBAMA08.org!!

The closing line "This is analysis, not advice" ma...

2008-07-25T11:39:00.000-04:00

The closing line "This is analysis, not advice" made me laugh. Of course it's advice. Reminds of the radio ad tagline of a megachurch pastor in the DC area, who after giving a preachy soundbite, finishes with "Not a sermon, just a thought." Both are the equivalent of interrupting by saying "Not to interrupt, but..."

Let's not panic. Obama is leading in the polls and has been dealing with his biography and expanding his base. This is what you're supposed to do after you win a nomination. It's what McCain failed to do after he locked up his nomination in March. He's still trying to nail down his base and has yet to expand to the middle.

Obama will go negative in due course, but you do that early at you're own peril.

Aggregate the "solid" O states as a unit. WA, OR,...

2008-07-25T11:28:00.000-04:00

Aggregate the "solid" O states as a unit. WA, OR, CA, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, MD, DC, NY, NJ, DE, VT, MA, CT, RI, NH, ME (west to east) 259
Maybe NM is solid so you'd add that. (It's the last place that still runs in a 50/60s style "machine" politics mode. Even Chicago and Lake County, IN seem reformed.)

Then, use your state similarity score to find which of the remaining states are the "nearest neighbors" to this aggregated unit.

As has been said, "In God we trust, all others bring data."

If the "analysis"/"advice" is really "theory building activity", then one can use confirmatory factor analysis to TEST.

What I think sometimes is going on is exploratory factor analysis -- "fishing".

The shape of EV map is starting to look pretty close to the "no information hypothesis"; so there is a danger that this cite is drifting into "voodoo" and every other generic political blog.

The "super-tracker" is exhibit no. 1 for the case of "tea leaf" stats.

Oh, and update the FAQ -- who cares about "the Clinton model" except Lanny Davis hoping for an August coupe.

lilnev:You don't think McCain lacking knowledge of...

2008-07-25T11:12:00.000-04:00

lilnev:

You don't think McCain lacking knowledge of important Middle Eastern borders would generate "eyeballs"? Since he is the self-proclaimed foreign policy expert (a joke) and the "best" commander-in-chief (another joke, coming from a person who cheesed behind the President for years), this would make him look like a fool.

Charging half a million dollars on a credit card and foreclosing on a house is something VOTERS should know about. This dispels the whole "elitist" comments about the Obamas, which was absurd to begin with. How can you be expected to improve the economy if you can't even run your own finances? How can you expect to know what Americans are feeling in their wallets if you haven't shopped in a supermarket since the early '80s?

Forgetting the polls, every single Obama gaffe has been pyschoanalyzed. Its one thing to make a race seem "close" (which I find disgusting), but it is another to completely write off things that people SHOULD know about.

For the spelling police above:I'm one of the peopl...

2008-07-25T09:20:00.000-04:00

For the spelling police above:

I'm one of the people who typed "soundbyte". I know what the word is and how it is supposed to be spelled, but my fingers don't always agree with me. Others probably have contrarian fingers, too.

If you are going to monitor spelling and grammar, you are going to be very busy. And boring.

"To determine whether Hillary Clinton is able and ...

2008-07-25T09:10:00.000-04:00

"To determine whether Hillary Clinton is able and willing to be a high-profile surrogate for you and, if so, to deploy her on the trail immediately." I think this is correct, except she can't do it right now. Until the VP is picked (Clinton or otherwise), any massive campaigning with Clinton at this point will stoked her veep speculation, taking Obama off message (but also stealing the spotlight from McCain). After VP, this strategy makes sense. He ought to just go ahead and pick her for veep now and this would work. Yes, I know, there are red herring arguments that Bill Clinton will be a problem, but he will be a problem if he wants to be regardless of whether she is on the ticket. This is such a Democratic year, that Obama and Clinton together unify the party and pull in low-income white independents (via Clinton) and high-income independents (via Obama). In a Dem year, pick a Dem. unity ticket - and get her on the trail now to up those numbers among undecideds who still support Hillary.

Why is the writer's advice about what Obama should...

2008-07-25T08:29:00.000-04:00

Why is the writer's advice about what Obama should do focused on the SUPERFICIAL. Are voters really that stupid?

Here is my advice on what Obama should do:

1. Announce who some of his top-level Cabinet officers will be before the Democratic Convention. He should pick people like Sam Nunn, Chuck Hagel and, even, Dick Lugar for important foreign policy positions.

2. Bolster his foreign policy team by selecting a vice presidential nominee with national security credentials like Wesley Clark or Jim Webb.

3. Formulate a bold plan to fix some of the nation's economic problems, including the unbelievable economic inequality.

How about a huge tax cut for lower and middle-class people that will be financed by the rich, who have NEVER paid their fair share. Billionaire Warren Buffett admitted this when he said he pays a LOWER percentage of his earnings in taxes than his own secretary.

Obama could counteract the inevitable "class bashing" attacks with Perotlike charts showing how the rich's rates have gone way DOWN since 1980. The tax loopholes these greedy bleeps got back in the 1970s wasn't good enough for them.

4. Formulate a plan to solve the nation's energy crisis. I hate to say it, but McCain has a better plan -- because Obama has NONE.

I wish I knew enough about the safety of oil drilling technology to decide whether offshore oil drilling is environmentally safe. I'm inclined to say it isn't because of Exxon's deplorable behavior in the past 20 years, but I could be wrong.

In any case, Obama needs to have some sort of plan.

5. Stress in ads that the McCain of 2008 is different than the McCain of 2000.

Thank you,
ZWrite

What the Obama team does is solid ground work. The...

2008-07-25T04:38:00.000-04:00

What the Obama team does is solid ground work. There is no point to burn money on adds before August. He already bought 5 million worth ad for the Olympics. THAT will start the GE campaign. By that time he will have a solid foreign policy plan backed by generals and foreign ministers. He will have an economy plan backed by economists. He will have the images and footages as he posing as a president, commander in chief, father and hard working white American. He will have his vulnerable moment and he will have his tough moment.
By then there will be lots of McCain "misspeach" I expect they will come in sight around the end of September. Together as a blow that should put McCain back with 5-10 points for at leas 30-40 days.

But not now, not yet.

Some people seem to have a fundamental misconcepti...

2008-07-25T03:18:00.000-04:00

Some people seem to have a fundamental misconception about how the media works. They think that the news is the product, and the viewers are the customers. This is exactly wrong. The viewers are the product, and the advertisers are the customers. The media is in the business of producing and selling eyeballs; the news is just their "means of production".

Once you understand this, a lot of things become clear. The media doesn't spend twice as many minutes covering Obama as McCain because they're in the tank for Obama, they do it because they believe having Obama onscreen will produce more eyeballs. They're probably right. And they don't decline to cover McCain's frequent gaffes because they're in the tank for him, but because they don't believe those stories will generate eyeballs. Again, they're probably right. Finally, "the race is close and dramatic, today's events may alter the outcome" is almost guaranteed to create more eyeballs than, "well the same candidate is still ahead, and today's events won't likely change that."

dcm,try the homepage, as I said in my last post.ww...

2008-07-25T03:14:00.000-04:00

dcm,
try the homepage, as I said in my last post.
www.rasmussenreports.com

You'll find a headline there, the first headline under "Breaking Poll" for the last ten hours, right beside a photo of a highway sign reading, "Pennsylvania Welcomes you." The headline reads:
"Pennsylvania: Obama Inches Further Ahead"

which seems like a very fair assessment of the poll.

There is always a lot of distortion and just-plain-idiocy in the way the media and the pollsters report poll results, but this isn't a time where anybody's done anything wrong.

Four More Things! Four more things!1) Find your v...

2008-07-25T03:00:00.000-04:00

Four More Things! Four more things!

1) Find your version of Joe Biden to be your surrogate on the economy.

2) Keep reminding everyone and challenging McCain on his quote about the economy being pretty good under Bush.

3) Besides just using your own "fight the smears" website, direct people to check an impartial referee site like factcheck.org or snopes.com. Beyond this election, these provide us a valuable service in the internet age by countering misinformation. Hey, if widely used, they could be help catalyze the age of new politics you talk about.

4) Stay specific about change, what has been not working in Washington, what the plan is to fix it. Paint a vision with some details of what a better America and better world looks like and how we get there together.

Hey, whether you bleed Red or Blue - go read the n...

2008-07-25T02:46:00.000-04:00

Hey, whether you bleed Red or Blue -
go read the new article "McCain's Foreign Policy Frustration" - Joe Klein, Time [on RCP] or @

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1826064,00.html

He just may have an explanation for why Obama is for adamantly refusing to admit that the Surge worked. And that would eexplain why Obama may even be encouraging the MSM talking heads to keep pepperring him with the same Q's over & over ad nauseum.

It may be a brilliant strategy to needle McCain until he explodes...as well as continue to encourage the GOP to get off-message & play into his trap...

JGabriel ,Thanks for your post about the faux sold...

2008-07-25T02:38:00.000-04:00

JGabriel ,

Thanks for your post about the faux soldier email. I am sure we all saw that cut & pasted all over the blogs today. Was sure it was just a 'swiftboating' - even checked on Snopes earlier.

ajb,I just rechecked RR again. There is still NO ...

2008-07-25T02:35:00.001-04:00

ajb,

I just rechecked RR again. There is still NO link provided or reference to the PA poll even now. Not on politics page, recent poll pag, recent release page.

Perhaps you have a Premium package. It appears they provide it to them with a lag to the public.

BUT the PA poll results regardless were buried tonight. Released late, no publicity, not referenced by the MSM OR by Scott Rasmussen on Faux w/Hannity tonight. And it only showed up on Pollster at 1 AM...

Also very late on RCP & still not on most sites.

The funny thing is Scott R. was used tonight by Hannity to validate the McCain surging trends as reflected today by the Q state polls !!!

Scott R. sat there & never mentioned that his polls this same week contradicted several of the Q polls [MN especially]. Now that takes some real partisanship to suck that up - plus he already new the PA poll results & never mentioned or referenced them...

fair & balanced - lol

it is not that the results are important in PA, but it is the strange timing of the release & apparent 'quiet' suppression/lack of publicity that makes it appear to be intentional so as not to interfere with the McCain team narrative tonight perhaps...

McCain has said before he wouldn't pick a pro-choi...

2008-07-25T02:35:00.000-04:00

McCain has said before he wouldn't pick a pro-choice VP

McCain has said once before that he didn't oppose Roe v. Wade. Duh -- because it's hard to find an issue on which McCain hasn't reversed himself ... like, say, giving speeches abroad where he presumes himself to be the future President of the U.S.

"These comments are inappropriate and factually in...

2008-07-25T02:30:00.000-04:00

"These comments are inappropriate and factually incorrect," said Bagram spokesman Army Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, who added that such political commentary is barred for uniformed personnel.

Once again showing the Republicans are liars and traitors.

Jack-be-nimbleThis isn't a forum to moronically ar...

2008-07-25T02:00:00.000-04:00

Jack-be-nimble
This isn't a forum to moronically argue that global warming is not real- go somewhere else to spread your stupidity.
This site is about polling and analyzing the race through polling data, and comparing it to historical and political trends.
If you are going to troll and not use the stupid talking points at least make sure you utter some semblance of truth.

Some of the article's suggestions are good but rei...

2008-07-25T01:53:00.000-04:00

Some of the article's suggestions are good but reigniting the culture wars is always a disaster for Dems in presidential elections. The last thing Obama needs is to be discussing partial-birth abortions, gay marriage, and gun control.