Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/29

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2009-10-03T04:56:10.875-04:00

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2009-09-12T02:35:45.438-04:00

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2009-03-13T04:38:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:21:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:11:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T20:57:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T04:53:00.000-05:00

My hypothesis: The discrepency in tightening betwe...

2008-10-30T15:52:00.000-04:00

My hypothesis: The discrepency in tightening between the national and state polls is showing the air and ground effect for Obama. There is a natural tightening going on as frustrated Republicans hold their noses and get in line behind McCain. The battlegrounds, however, are resisting this movement to some extent as Obama's ground game is getting more and more sporatic voters to log actual votes and his air game is soaking up undecideds.

I sure hope your pick in the election is better th...

2008-10-30T15:29:00.000-04:00

I sure hope your pick in the election is better than Tampa Bay! Go Phillies (and Barack).

Kansas,LA Times won't release the tape because the...

2008-10-30T14:09:00.000-04:00

Kansas,

LA Times won't release the tape because they know it will be taken out of context and turned into a SMEAR.

Good for them for taking the high road.

I'm sure if the tape truly suggested that Obama supports terrorists, as you seem to imply, they would have realeased it long ago.

Nate,There is a flaw in your analysis. You say th...

2008-10-30T11:14:00.000-04:00

Nate,

There is a flaw in your analysis. You say that McCain, being down 6 points, has to make up 1 point a day to overtake Obama's lead on Election Day. But it is actually much worse than that. 25% of the country has already voted, and it will be higher by election day (and it is higher in some key battlegrounds). If the polls are accurate, that means that Obama has already won 1/4 of the electorate by 6-7 percentage points. This means that if the election were held today, McCain would have to win something like 54% of the remaining vote to pull even. If he only makes up a point a day and people continue to vote in the numbers they have been, he would need to win something like 60% of the votes cast on election day to overtake Obama. In other words, if the polls accurately reflect the way people have voted and continue to vote, the election is already, for all intents and purposes, over.

my first post ever:which tv channel will u be watc...

2008-10-30T10:50:00.000-04:00

my first post ever:

which tv channel will u be watching on election night?

I'll be at a hotel, so I won't be able to dvr anything ... but I'll be flipping channels like crazy between:

- MSNBC
- CNN
- FOXNEWS (yes, I'm dying to see them reacting to each state being called for Obama)

on my laptop, I'll have CNN, DKOS, 538, HuffPo, NRO and RedState (also can't wait for their reaction).

Also, who do you think will be the first to say "we can certainly say Obama won?" Chuck Todd? it's gonna be interesting because technically they can't call it until the west coast closes, but it will be obvious to everybody, so it will be awkward for the pundits ...

Thoughts?

I'm still surprised that Nate refuses to consider ...

2008-10-30T10:19:00.000-04:00

I'm still surprised that Nate refuses to consider how vote-flipping etc will effect the outcome. Given evidence of prior Republican manipulation of voting machines, misinformation to minority voters, and other suppression techniques, does he really think that CO, VA, and PA really will go for Obama? I'll certainly be happy if this proves not to be the case, but I'm still perplexed by his refusal to even acknowledge these issues at all - they seem conspicuous in their absence on this site. What the heck is up with that?

DCM in FL, I stayed up to watcxh the rally.It was ...

2008-10-30T08:45:00.000-04:00

DCM in FL, I stayed up to watcxh the rally.It was amazing. It had me CLAPPING and hollering outloud. Bill did an extraordinary job in Kissimee last night. He said, exactly what I've been saying for weeks, about the gas prices being lower, cause the minute McCain looses, they
will go right back up again. It was such an inspiring speech. I always liked it when Bill spoke, but last night, he was mad as hell,and he's not taking crap from George any more.

Kansas City?? I'm from Kansas City, watch what you...

2008-10-30T08:41:00.000-04:00

Kansas City?? I'm from Kansas City, watch what you say! lol. I felt honored last night during Obama's commercial. He began in North Kansas City. That was awesome

Nate!!! Great job on Olberman's last ngiht.

I put 538 in my blackberry, pretty cool that now, besides looking at this site 50 times a day, when I'm not at the computer, I'll have automatic updates.

Today the GDP numbers will come out. If it's negat...

2008-10-30T08:24:00.000-04:00

Today the GDP numbers will come out. If it's negative, then it would be another blow to McCain's campaign, otherwise, he'll make some progress from today until the day of the election. Although, if the GDP is in "high" negative (i.e. 0.0 - -1.0), then the McCain's campaign may brush it off as another "fundamentally" sound economy that is going to come out not beleaguered in near future and run with that notion to bury the economical anxiety people are suffering right now.

Another point is that according to electoral-vote, on Oct 29, 2004 Kerry was trailing Bush by (Kerry 236 Bush 281). Obama has a very good chance of winning this election if there is no major blowout until the election day.

Some UK bookmakers paid out on an Obama win severa...

2008-10-30T07:34:00.000-04:00

Some UK bookmakers paid out on an Obama win several days ago, and it's easy to see why. If he wins the obvious ones plus WA, OR, MN, WI, MI, IA, NH and VA he's got 272 EVs. He doesn't need to win any of the Rocky Mountain states, or FL, or OH, to be president. Way to go, BHO!

So, why is the Today Show reporting that Pennsylva...

2008-10-30T07:24:00.000-04:00

So, why is the Today Show reporting that Pennsylvania is narrowing--and coming within reach for McCain? They quoted a poll showing a 4-point difference. Is this cherry-picking to make the horse race more exciting?

Hi Nate. Great site, you have me hooked.Joe Scarb...

2008-10-30T06:50:00.000-04:00

Hi Nate. Great site, you have me hooked.

Joe Scarborough is all over the TV this morning talking about a stunning new poll that will come out of PA today showing the race really tightening. Any word on that?

Thanks Nate! Glad I got some sleep and did'nt wait...

2008-10-30T05:19:00.000-04:00

Thanks Nate! Glad I got some sleep and did'nt wait until 11:00 P.M. to get the news.

New thread Sherwick, just so you know.

2008-10-30T05:15:00.000-04:00

New thread Sherwick, just so you know.

how many people at the Obama/Clinton Florida rally...

2008-10-30T05:13:00.000-04:00

how many people at the Obama/Clinton Florida rally yesterday?

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/29

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窗 前 有 那 波 紋 般 的 漣 漪 蠟 燭 燃 得 劈 裡 啪 啦 的 脆 響

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

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My hypothesis: The discrepency in tightening betwe...

I sure hope your pick in the election is better th...

Kansas,LA Times won't release the tape because the...

Nate,There is a flaw in your analysis. You say th...

my first post ever:which tv channel will u be watc...

I'm still surprised that Nate refuses to consider ...

DCM in FL, I stayed up to watcxh the rally.It was ...

Kansas City?? I'm from Kansas City, watch what you...

Today the GDP numbers will come out. If it's negat...

Some UK bookmakers paid out on an Obama win severa...

So, why is the Today Show reporting that Pennsylva...

Hi Nate. Great site, you have me hooked.Joe Scarb...

Thanks Nate! Glad I got some sleep and did'nt wait...

New thread Sherwick, just so you know.

how many people at the Obama/Clinton Florida rally...

窗前有那波紋般的漣漪蠟燭燃得劈裡啪啦的脆響