Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Mini-Sota Update, Day 6

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-02T05:13:02.478-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-08-28T02:46:52.765-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,...

2009-08-02T01:31:07.685-04:00

自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,性感睡衣,情趣內衣,比基尼內衣,人妻少婦性感睡衣,
失戀,性愛,性感,情慾,調情,挑逗,慾望,情人節禮物,自慰器,

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

2009-04-16T04:12:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T21:11:00.000-05:00

KennyB,Glad to hear it! Training poll workers adeq...

2008-11-26T19:04:00.000-05:00

KennyB,
Glad to hear it! Training poll workers adequately is one of the greatest challenges in election administration. We have the country's largest single-day workforce, the average age of which is 72. It's a job that requires technical acumen, legal knowledge, people skills, and the ability to correctly adhere to procedure in the face of intimidating election observers, as you point out. It's not easy to find and train people to handle the task (especially with the paltry budgets many elections administrators work with); I'm glad the NH AG did a good job this year.

I understand everyone wants to work for their cause, but I do wish more of the intelligent, talented people who work Election Day for the campaigns would opt to serve in the polls instead. That would ease the training burden somewhat.

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is ...

2008-11-26T16:06:00.000-05:00

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is the Franken campaign is asking for ALL 6300 absentee ballots to be examined (98% of these ballots were rejected for very good reasons)

And how do you propose to determine whether an absentee ballot was rejected properly, or improperly, without examining them?

We already know many examples exist of people who voted correctly, but did not have their vote counted because someone rejected their ballot inappropriately.

There is simply only one fair way to determine the winner.. finish the recount, settle the challenges, and review all the rejected absentee ballots to rescue all the ones rejected incorrectly. Add them up, and a one vote margin settles it.

If that is done, neither Franken nor Coleman have any right to ask that more be done.

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is ...

2008-11-26T15:16:00.000-05:00

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is the Franken campaign is asking for ALL 6300 absentee ballots to be examined (98% of these ballots were rejected for very good reasons), including the voters being contacted and interviewed, in its attempt to break this wide open. If Franken had been able to do this from the canvassing board there would be no court to run this process - in other words it would be a free for all - giving Franken multiple excuses to get the final judgement before the US Senate where his fellow Democrats would seat him. This is Al's game - they already know he cannot make up the difference with the challenged votes or those remaining to be counted - his only chance are the absentee's throwing off enough fog to get this in the hands of Chuckie Shumer and his buddies.

Mike,How will the voters of Minnesota feel? Those ...

2008-11-26T15:01:00.000-05:00

Mike,

How will the voters of Minnesota feel? Those that voted for Coleman will feel cheated, just like when Bush won the 2000 election 5-4 in a decision totally at odds with the majority's judicial philosophy.

If absentee ballots were improperly excluded, they should be counted. Whatever body has jurisdiction to determine the answer to that question should do it in due course.

I need to add something to my last post.In fact, e...

2008-11-26T14:16:00.000-05:00

I need to add something to my last post.
In fact, even if Franken only comes close, a lot of third party voters and Dems who didn't vote may be inspired to turn out for the party next time, because they know they can win. Also - and this is a sad fact, but a fact nonetheless - there is a lot of evidence that the less politically minded voters tend to vote for whoever they think is going to win. Some of them may be peeled off from the Republicans next time too.

Mike,I think the unbiased or Dem leaning MN voters...

2008-11-26T14:12:00.000-05:00

Mike,
I think the unbiased or Dem leaning MN voters would say he had played by the rules in making sure all the eligible ballots were counted.

Unlike what happened in FL.

The Coleman voters, well, they want Coleman to win, so they are bound to complain if Franken wins, however that happens. But the Dems haven't got their votes now, so they won't be worse off afterwards by losing them.

Mike's partly right and partly wrong.Minnesota law...

2008-11-26T14:06:00.000-05:00

Mike's partly right and partly wrong.

Minnesota law says the proper place to file an election contest is in Ramsey County District Court, not federal court.

Pursuing a claim in federal court would not be in accord with Minnesota election law, though it might be in accord with federal law, depending on the substance of the claim.

Looks like Norm will win unless the court lets the...

2008-11-26T13:35:00.000-05:00

Looks like Norm will win unless the court lets the absentee ballots be counted. It appears that Mn. is the loser with a senator with the support of 42% of the state no matter who wins.
Actually it would be best for them to have Al win, he would be with the majority party and could do more for the state, than some jackass in the minority.
Anyway looks to me like Al will lose and Mn is still stuck with that horses ass.

MIKEwell, care to guess what that makes YOU with t...

2008-11-26T13:17:00.000-05:00

MIKE

well, care to guess what that makes YOU with those partisan GOPer 'assumptions' you continually make trying to sell the meme that NORM WINS ???

it makes an ass outta u...

why not give it a rest & let both the recount process [which is nowhere near completed] and then the courts complete their wotk properly BEFORE you make your demand that Al concede a race that will be razor thin

3 weeks ago I bet you thought Smith & Stevens would be seated too in the next senate...

Kennyb, I agree with you and have been saying on t...

2008-11-26T13:10:00.000-05:00

Kennyb, I agree with you and have been saying on this board all along the absentee ballot issue would fall to the US District Court AFTER the recount process was concluded. This is exactly what Franken did not want to happen. At the end of the recount process, Coleman will have the lead and will be declared the winner by the Canvassing board and Secretary of State - this is the law in Minnesota. Franken will have the opportunity to contest the election and take his complaints to US District Court. If he loses in US District Court then he takes the matter to the US Senate - which is the final authority on who takes the seat. So, imagine, Coleman wins every count- at the ballot box, after machine count audit, and now after the hand-held count - then Al goes to the Democratic Party controlled Senate and is awarded the seat. Care to take a guess as to how Minnesota voters will react to that scenerio?

I think I'm now understanding this a little better...

2008-11-26T12:41:00.000-05:00

I think I'm now understanding this a little better, but could do with confirmation from Nate.

Taking un-recounted votes as they were before, Coleman now leads by 238, or 23 more than he did on the original count.

And as Fred points out, Coleman has only made 78 more challenges than Franken. So a first thought is that if all challenges fail, Franken has gained by only 55 while 81% of the votes have been recounted, nowhere near enough progress to overturn a lead of 215.

BUT we don’t know how the challenge totals break down between (A) challenges to votes for the other guy, and (B) challenges against the exclusion of votes for you. (A) challenges reduce the other guy’s interim count, (B) challenges don’t affect the interim count.

So just suppose that Franken has made 200 more (B) challenges than Coleman
In which case, Coleman must have made 278 more (A) challenges than Franken
But Coleman has gained only 23 on the interim count, despite making 278 more (A) challenges
So Franken must have gained 255 from the corrections made in the recount process
So, as Franken was 215 behind before, he must now be 40 ahead
So if all the challenges were rejected, Franken would win by that 40

But if you apply the same logic to an assumption that Franken has made only 100 more (B) challenges than Coleman, then he has gained only 155, is 60 behind and would narrowly lose when the recount was completed.

UNLESS a greater proportion of Franken’s challenges were successful than of Coleman’s.

You know, Mike, you might want to consider not emb...

2008-11-26T12:34:00.000-05:00

You know, Mike, you might want to consider not embarrassing yourself with your crowing about Franken "going back to NYC". The canvassing board merely punted the decision to the courts, where this election will be adjudicated anyway:

"A state elections board decided it does not have the authority to decide whether rejected absentee ballots in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race should be counted, but the five-member board this morning agreed that any absentee votes that were not counted should be part of an ongoing recount.
The vote went against a request from Democrat Al Franken's campaign that the state Canvassing Board look through thousands of absentee ballots to decide which ones should be counted.
Supreme Court Justice G. Barry Anderson, one of four jurists on the board, said there is little doubt the race between Franken and Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman will end up in court, and that is where a decision about whether absentee ballots were property rejected should be decided."

You cannot simply add back the challenges to the r...

2008-11-26T12:17:00.000-05:00

You cannot simply add back the challenges to the reported totals and determine what the result will be if all challenges are denied.

The challenge could have originally been a no-vote.. so overturning the challenge won't add to either candidate's total.

It is very likely, but entirely unprovable, that Franken will receive more vote from denied Coleman challenges that the reverse.. so Nate's 27 vote prediction is still very much in play.

But we aren't going to know anything useful until the challenges are ruled on, and the votes are put back into their proper category. The daily count (without challenged ballots) is meaningless in a race this close, unless the difference grows to an amount equivalent to a good percentage of the challenged ballot total.

This is the question that needs to be cleared up. ...

2008-11-26T12:11:00.000-05:00

This is the question that needs to be cleared up. What percentage of "challenged" ballots get accepted? If a high percentage of the challenged ballots end up counting then whoever challenges the fewest benifits...

In essence, if Coleman challenges a ballot, it is because if counted it would likely count for Franken and vice versa. Therefore, if we can determine that a lot of the challanged ballots will eventually count, the person who challenges the most is in a weaker position. The fact that Coleman has challenged MORE than Franken is a good thing, despite the snarky comment I got on the board yesterday.

Am I wrong in my assumptions?

It's Unaminous!Franken loses absentee ballot appea...

2008-11-26T12:09:00.000-05:00

It's Unaminous!

Franken loses absentee ballot appeal before Minnesota State Canvasssing board.

Bye, Bye Al, its back to New York City and Air America

Nate,Are you still predicting a 24(7?) vote win fo...

2008-11-26T11:33:00.000-05:00

Nate,

Are you still predicting a 24(7?) vote win for Franken?

It is simple logic. Coleman is losing.The tactic f...

2008-11-26T11:05:00.000-05:00

It is simple logic. Coleman is losing.

The tactic for the leader going into the recount is to just challenge votes that add to your lead, but since Coleman is losing rather badly during the recount, they had to aggressively remove votes from Franken.

That is the only way that Coleman can win. You know to disenfranchise voters like Republicans like to do in most elections. Therefore, since Franken has been challenging less and removing fewer votes from Coleman's pile he is firmly in the lead.

Coleman lost the "real lead" right when about 80% of the recounted vote was tallied. Now Coleman is going to have to remove many more votes to hold his widening "fake" lead that fails to count all the MN vote.

Franken will widen the "real lead" and finish with a nice 50-100 vote real lead that counts all the MN votes.

Maybe Coleman should concede now, since he is the loser?

In the UK you cannot same day register. You have ...

2008-11-26T11:04:00.000-05:00

In the UK you cannot same day register. You have to fill out forms in advance, giving your name and address, but they take it on trust that you are a UK or Irish citizen (can vote in all elections) or an EU citizen (can vote in local elections and European elections but not parliamentary ones). The forms need to be with the local council about 4 weeks before an election.

Sorry, typo. MN not MINUTE. Darn autotext!

2008-11-26T10:48:00.000-05:00

Sorry, typo. MN not MINUTE. Darn autotext!

Virginia, That is a good move on MN's part, buy NH...

2008-11-26T10:43:00.000-05:00

Virginia, That is a good move on MN's part, buy NH has the same rule that challangers must have personal knowledge of the violation. The problem is polling moderators who are unfamiliar with the law, cowed into submission or partisan in favor of the challanger and the bogeyman of "voter fraud". The improvement this election cycle in this state was dramatic. The AG did training for polling modertors, keepers of the checklist and poll workers, distributed detailed instructions on the law, had assistant AG's visit most polling locations on election day with a requirements checklist, distributed temporary cardboard voting booths for every polling station to hold in reserve (or set up in advance as a precaution for long lines), and imposed a rule that before any voter could be turned away, the moderator was required to call the Attorney General's office to get approval! It helped, of course, that we had 750 lawyers montitoring the polls for the Obama campaign and that the McCain campaign and the state Repubs. really did not mount any organized voter suppression strategy, though.

We have the same law as MINUTE for same day registration, but even if someone cannot prove citizenship, domicile or identity with paperwork, they can still sign an affidavit swearing to those things and vote. No provisional ballots, either. Those votes count.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Mini-Sota Update, Day 6

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

KennyB,Glad to hear it! Training poll workers adeq...

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is ...

Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is ...

Mike,How will the voters of Minnesota feel? Those ...

I need to add something to my last post.In fact, e...

Mike,I think the unbiased or Dem leaning MN voters...

Mike's partly right and partly wrong.Minnesota law...

Looks like Norm will win unless the court lets the...

MIKEwell, care to guess what that makes YOU with t...

Kennyb, I agree with you and have been saying on t...

I think I'm now understanding this a little better...

You know, Mike, you might want to consider not emb...

You cannot simply add back the challenges to the r...

This is the question that needs to be cleared up. ...

It's Unaminous!Franken loses absentee ballot appea...

Nate,Are you still predicting a 24(7?) vote win fo...

It is simple logic. Coleman is losing.The tactic f...

In the UK you cannot same day register. You have ...

Sorry, typo. MN not MINUTE. Darn autotext!

Virginia, That is a good move on MN's part, buy NH...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...