Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/22

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2009-01-19T08:22:00.000-05:00

McCain will be forced at some point to put money i...

2008-09-23T10:50:00.000-04:00

McCain will be forced at some point to put money into defending IN, NC, VA, and NV.

Ironically, if you look at migration patterns, those states were all affected by the economic paralysis of the 1970s in big ways. They all lost or took in economic refugees, Reagan came in, and they became red states for a generation.

Now their kids are revolting against the GOP.

Indiana lost population to AZ and CA. Two congressional districts were lost from 11 in 1978.

NC and VA are now feeling the pain of 30 years of industrial and agricultural policy that has buckled their rural economies. Throw in new residents from the northeast and midwest with college degrees and Obama's numbers begin to make sense.

NV is feeling the pain. Top three in the nation for foreclosures. Even the casinos are feeling it. Barring that, you have a population that is more of the other 49 states than it is native Nevadan. Las Vegas was the fastest growing city in the US a few years back. The shift in numbers does not surprise this observer.

We are a generation past Jimmy Carter. I remember people crucifying him for high gas prices and high interest rates. But the gas prices were relatively high and at least the high interest rates staved off collapse of the economy. Foreclosures by the bushel basket were not the norm and a wholesale bailout of Wall Street would have given Reagan a 538 EV win. Truth is, things are much worse now.

IN, NC, VA, and NV may be indications that the negative sentiment of party brand name toward the GOP is stronger than we can gauge in a poll.

I'm happy to be up in Virginia and not Ohio if it ...

2008-09-23T07:39:00.000-04:00

I'm happy to be up in Virginia and not Ohio if it can't be both, but it seems counterintuitive to me.

Since the Ohio economy is worse than the Virginia one, I would think that worsening national economic conditions would create a bigger shift towards Obama there.
After all, in 2004 the Florida economy was doing pretty well and Bush won by a few points while barely winning Ohio, which was the flip side from 2000 (when Florida was doing better than Ohio and Gore was the incumbent party).

I think you have to look at the history of polling...

2008-09-23T02:30:00.000-04:00

I think you have to look at the history of polling in certain states. Pennsylvania was all over the place in the polls preceding the last few Presidential elections.

Blogger URL:http://www.blogger.com/profile/0874299...

2008-09-23T02:23:00.000-04:00

Blogger URL:
http://www.blogger.com/profile/08742999642953783214

Screen Names Used in "Today's Polls 9/22":
Hillary
Vanessa
Strangeite
dario
Boulder Liberal
eric
ed meese
NC-voter
Inkstain
matt j.h.
becky sharp

FYI:
Here's a secret to finding the impostor posts. In IE click on View then Source, or in FireFox click on View then "View Source" Then hit ctrl+f to bring up the find dialogue box and paste in the blogger id (08742999642953783214). This will find all of the posts by that unique blogger ID and help you weed out all the fake posts.

Johnny, you must have missed the recent AP/Yahoo s...

2008-09-23T02:02:00.000-04:00

Johnny, you must have missed the recent AP/Yahoo study showing racist attitudes among white Democrats. There will be a Bradley effect all right, we just don't know how much of one. The states where it is most likely to make a difference are OH, PA, NH, MI, FL, and VA.

It's funny Obama would go back to Penn State where...

2008-09-23T01:51:00.000-04:00

It's funny Obama would go back to Penn State where he called the football team the "Nittaly Lions" --twice, showing his lack of football knowledge. Joe Pa must have had a fit.

Nate...just ignore all the crap, keep being true t...

2008-09-23T01:41:00.000-04:00

Nate...just ignore all the crap, keep being true to those who value factual info and appreciate your efforts. We thank you and are your true readers each and every day. Stay safe in your travels and we all look forward to the more frequent updates when you get home...that was meant with a grain of salt as you might say, on the road stuff means just as much to us.

Bob

There is no such thing as the Bradkey "Affect"{ ui...

2008-09-23T01:30:00.000-04:00

There is no such thing as the Bradkey "Affect"{ uinless you are talking about your feelings for someone named Bradley. It's the Bradley "Effect,".

AS to whether it exists. yed it does. There are people out there who will lie to a pollster about their intent because of fear of feeling denigated in the pollster's eyes should they reveal theri true intentions.

Question #1: Why would anylie lie to a com=puter in robopolls - since there is no live person on the other end of the line?
Question # 2: how many of such people are there out there? Is is enough to make a measureable impact? By definition, we cannot know until after the election, since the terms refers to a sifference between reported intent and actual voting behavior.

Current research tends to downplay the likelihood of such an effect's being significant today, regardless of what has happened 20-30 years in the past.

Remember 50 years ago Blacks could get lynched for trying to vote.

Both SurveyUSA and the ABC/Post poll show him with...

2008-09-23T01:18:00.000-04:00

Both SurveyUSA and the ABC/Post poll show him with a lead outside of the margin of error in Virginia, although the latter depends on just which version of the poll you use (we use the registered voter version with third-party candidates included; as of next week, we'll switch over to the likely voter versions)

This is bad--very bad. You've said in the past that you use likely voter numbers where available, and learning that you don't use the methodology that you've posted about in the past upsets me greatly.

I say this as a stark raving mad Obama fan.

sniff sniffWhew, obtuse generalizations about th...

2008-09-23T00:45:00.000-04:00

*sniff sniff*

Whew, obtuse generalizations about the horrors of an Obama presidency, blatant racist comments, using other peoples' UIDs....

The stench of desperation emanating from the fringe right-wingers on this thread is virtually overwhelming.

"Forget the coughs, I bet McCain loses Janesville ...

2008-09-23T00:31:00.001-04:00

"Forget the coughs, I bet McCain loses Janesville fer Christ's sake. WI is gonna be blue as hell."

Janesville went Blue last time. We have a GM plant here, and it's going under after 85 years, no more GM in Janesville. We were blue before in 23/24 wards...this year we'll be ..

Another post up, move to different place guys.

Not sure if you all saw this. Pretty funny: http:/...

2008-09-23T00:31:00.000-04:00

Not sure if you all saw this. Pretty funny:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/opinion/21dowd-sorkin.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Mr. Hendricks dies and Janesville goes blue. Wow,...

2008-09-23T00:30:00.000-04:00

Mr. Hendricks dies and Janesville goes blue. Wow, indeed.

Forget the coughs, I bet McCain loses Janesville f...

2008-09-23T00:28:00.000-04:00

Forget the coughs, I bet McCain loses Janesville fer Christ's sake. WI is gonna be blue as hell.

Jack, Nate has been really consistent about taking...

2008-09-23T00:26:00.001-04:00

Jack, Nate has been really consistent about taking RV>LV this far out from the election. He is going to flip to LV>RV next week. I expect you'll have another hissy fit then too.

As far as poll over/underperformance, I think Nate's leaning of undecided voters was a pretty sharp way to address that fact.

Let me also point out that Obama has bled a couple points of support in Gallup/R2000 over the last few days, and that the state polls seem to lag the national polls by a couple days, so things should tighten a bit.

At the same time, we're rapidly approaching a situation where Obama locks up CO and McCain has to take away PA. (There just aren't any realistic scenarios where NH matters. Obama will win CO if he wins NV.) PA hasn't moved much with any of the various bounces. Not sure what to make of that. Maybe McCain should trot out the "bitter" comment at one of the debates.

Dude, just stop talking about my state, you don't ...

2008-09-23T00:26:00.000-04:00

Dude, just stop talking about my state, you don't know shit about Wisconsin and never will. Green Bay is the city, and that's a red leaning city.

*cough* Milwaukee *cough* Madison.

What in hell happened in here? Who let the crazy ...

2008-09-23T00:22:00.000-04:00

What in hell happened in here? Who let the crazy have a moron orgy? I think it's even talking with itself.
Clearly, a sign of the best kind.

"Note per Ras McCain has broken 50% in each of OH,...

2008-09-23T00:19:00.000-04:00

"Note per Ras McCain has broken 50% in each of OH, FL and VA. Obama rarely reaches that mark."

Obama hit 51% in two Virginia polls released today - y'know, they're the topic of this thread.

glix-He isn't all the good on foreign policy, imo....

2008-09-23T00:18:00.000-04:00

glix-

He isn't all the good on foreign policy, imo. He's the dumbass who said on Meet the Press in 2003 that the Iraq war would be "easy" and over in "a matter of days, not weeks". His foreign policy knowledge is actually really limited despite his service in the armed services committee. He IS good at knowing our armed forces inside and out, but foreign policy not so much. He was not on the foreign affairs committee AFAIK, just the armed services committee.

If there's something to worry about, it's the Demo...

2008-09-23T00:16:00.000-04:00

If there's something to worry about, it's the Democratic Congress giving McCain his next campaign lie.

I don't understand why people say McCain is strong...

2008-09-23T00:15:00.000-04:00

I don't understand why people say McCain is stronger on foreign policy. I understand that he polls better in that area but is that all there is to it?

All I've ever heard are sound bites and gaffes on the topic. Can anyone point me to anything McCain has said in this campaign that would convince me he has even a glimmer of understanding of foreign policy?

"60,000 is huge. People had to wait hours to see h...

2008-09-23T00:14:00.000-04:00

"60,000 is huge. People had to wait hours to see her. She is a phenom. A giant killer."

Luckily for us, petekent, Obama doesn't need Florida since it's that close and Palin is drawing good sized crowds. A state with a population of 18,250,000 getting 60,000 votes, thats a whopping huge 0.003% of the people. That's HUGE!! It's over for Obama there, whew! a big 'ol 60,000 peeps, jesus Christ.

Actually that "60000" claim has been discredited.I...

2008-09-23T00:10:00.000-04:00

Actually that "60000" claim has been discredited.

It was merely an estimation that the McCain campaign cherry picked from someone who they grille for an answer, who even admitted that there is no reasonable way to tell.

others put the number around 20,000.

60,000 is huge. People had to wait hours to see h...

2008-09-23T00:09:00.000-04:00

60,000 is huge. People had to wait hours to see her. She is a phenom. A giant killer.