Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Few Notes on the Media

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2009-10-02T05:41:57.578-04:00

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2009-09-30T01:44:45.995-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:37:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:37:00.000-05:00

@Hector, "remember "Harold, call me"?" - I agree t...

2008-11-18T11:02:00.000-05:00

@Hector, "remember "Harold, call me"?" - I agree that even with exposure, these things can work in a very close race. But, look at Dole: her atheist ad blew up in her face and probably cost her the election; it was the outraged media that countered what could have been an effective ad.
The Ford race is one where racism was already a major factor, and that ad, close to the election (Oct) maybe pushed it over the edge, although that is not clear - there were other factors that came into play (Corker won by 3 and they had been up and down all that Fall). That race had a lot of "undecideds" among Dems, which is the normal racist solution in the South (vs. the Bradley effect which is not common), so it is not clear they ever would have voted for Ford. Part of the difference is that now the media handles these and how it shows them differently, including a lot more outrage from the media (vs. just telling us that Cohen was upset for example). What is interesting is that even Corker asked the RNC to stop showing those ads, but they did not. So, that probably protected Corker from the blow-back. It is hard to say, but I think that if it were tried now, the impact on the RNC would be much stronger due to far more outrage from the media; as we have learned, the RNC itself is losing a lot of credibility. When this kind of scurrilous attack was a 527 (e.g. SBVT), it could just dissolve after the election, so no long term harm. Much harder for the RNC, especially as this crosses over to other States.
But, as I said, these ads do work, sadly. What is changing is the political cost of using them.

Hello ace, thanks for sharing your insider knowled...

2008-11-18T04:27:00.000-05:00

Hello ace, thanks for sharing your insider knowledge of the news media with us.

That's what I like about 538 so much: it brings together a lot of people that seek information and know what they are talking about.

I enjoyed your comment. It's good to take off our tinfoil hats now and then and remind us that it's not all about the one big right-wing conspiracy. And no, you didn't drone on for too long. ;-)

And they're just the sort of blind, ignorant, and ...

2008-11-18T00:31:00.000-05:00

And they're just the sort of blind, ignorant, and defensive comments one would expect from such a person. Regardless of such protestations, study after study has shown bias towards business and against labor, towards war and against pacifists, toward government officials and against dissenters, etc. etc. And we just had exposed the Bush administration program to parade pro-war ideologues before the cameras as "experts". But the sorts of people who end up in positions like "ace" here aren't the sort who are willing or able to understand or be aware of such things because those who can have been filtered out by the hiring and promotion process.

You're one of the people who would get those emails about liberal bias and probably explode. :)

I'm not sure how you are aware of how the hiring process works, but politics never come up. It's not as if there's a litmus test. A news director probably looks at someone's tape for about 20 or 30 seconds. If they like what they see, the applicant may get another few minutes of viewing. It's mostly about how a person looks, sounds, and tells a narrative. If you're able to see political bias in that, please point it out. It's also not like people are weeded out if their views don't fall in line. Find me the study that shows newsrooms are purged to remain ideologically pure and I might believe some of your claims.

Again, I wouldn't argue that no such bias exists, but you're thinking of the media as some large mass that operates like a hive mind with a single intent to deceive. It sure is a dramatic tale, but it's hardly reality.

I actually don't plan to stay in news as a profession as the pay is rather poor and the opportunities for advancement are pretty poor. They need to pay me more to drink the Kool-Aid. :)

And I'm not going to go out of my way to defend an industry that has traded substance for chatter. The chatter is more popular, but it just adds to the noise. That's my biggest criticism of the media. It's all about "sides" and "balance" and ideas like that. The world of blogs does little to help that trend, though.

It seems you barely read my thoughts before tossing our your canned response. I probably did drone on for too long.

@elirabbet - You're exactly right--"Willie Horton"...

2008-11-17T23:05:00.000-05:00

@elirabbet -
You're exactly right--"Willie Horton"-type villification would not work now because of a general cultural shift making the underlying racism more obvious and odious. And that's totally in agreeing with my point--blogger culture is no more relevant to these sorts of social shifts than MSM election reporting.

@paulk -
On the other hand, remember "Harold, call me"? It may have lost Harold Ford the 2006 election. And it was NOT under-reported. Things have changed, but not that much. It seems the exploitation of racism can still go a long way, Atwater or no.

I wish it were otherwise.

It`s not so much racism as distrust of democrats b...

2008-11-17T22:45:00.000-05:00

It`s not so much racism as distrust of democrats by white America....
Still mad about the civil war

So the civil war was between Democrats and white America?

and the civil rights act.

Sure sounds like racism to me.

Things won`t change for another generation.

Nonsensical drivel.

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstre...

2008-11-17T22:26:00.000-05:00

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstream media (just a small market television) station, I thought I'd throw in some thoughts.

And they're just the sort of blind, ignorant, and defensive comments one would expect from such a person. Regardless of such protestations, study after study has shown bias towards business and against labor, towards war and against pacifists, toward government officials and against dissenters, etc. etc. And we just had exposed the Bush administration program to parade pro-war ideologues before the cameras as "experts". But the sorts of people who end up in positions like "ace" here aren't the sort who are willing or able to understand or be aware of such things because those who can have been filtered out by the hiring and promotion process.

The Killian documents were rapidly and -- to my mi...

2008-11-17T21:59:00.000-05:00

The Killian documents were rapidly and -- to my mind -- somewhat convincingly challenged by conservative blogs.

Not only were the Killian documents never proven to be forgeries, but Killian's secretary testified that the content reflected Killian's views.

But must more important is that the case against Bush had already been made years earlier by Molly Ivins and had been repeatedly reinforced with additional evidence. This is where the media (and many others, including Nate here) most obviously and badly failed -- by making it all about Rather, as if a failure by Rather to make his case vindicated Bush. But Bush was guilty as all getout regardless of whether the Killian docs were fakes or Rather is an incompetent fool.

@Hector, the world has changed from even 2004. The...

2008-11-17T20:38:00.000-05:00

@Hector, the world has changed from even 2004. The Swift Boat attack only worked because the MSM media was in a froth covering it and Kerry was too slow to deal with it (making it look like an admission from Kerry). The bloggers were also slow to respond. I think that the media is much more cautious about repeating such allegations without either fact checking or a lot more care in presenting the context (they now show in a frame that looks like a TV and explain it is an attack ad for example and they are quicker to say who is running it).
The Willie Horton case is one where the media would be quick to also tell you about the outrage from many people, including many influential people. So, even if he ran that, the side effect would be counter-attacks alongside it from prominent politicians and other respected individuals. With that context, people tend to more quickly downplay these things and/or tune them out; but, it also back-fires more to the originator - showing them in a more negative light for running it. The MSM would also be quick to show the counter-attack, something Obama did well.
No one is saying this is perfect and it would be a lot better if this crap were not allowed on the air (since it works at a very base level, sadly), but the main broadcast media is more cautious now and that is good. The other good thing, is that the main media gets more glory points by telling you how some other broadcaster is playing into a lie. This is something that finally caught Fox News this year - they also tended to be the butt of a lot of jokes due to their pandering coverage. This also tends to work against people's confidence in that broadcaster, which is good.

Nonsense, what would have happened is that the bla...

2008-11-17T20:05:00.000-05:00

Nonsense, what would have happened is that the black anchors on the local and national news and the reporters everywhere would have chewed him up and spit him out. They were not going to allow Obama to be swift boated

@paulk- re: "The manipulations of the Lee Attwater...

2008-11-17T19:39:00.000-05:00

@paulk- re: "The manipulations of the Lee Attwaters and Karl Roves (Swift boaters anyone?) is much harder than it used to be and is only going to get harder. This is because more Americans are branching out to a wider source of information than just one news channel."

This is a different argument, one about whether smears still work in the age of blogging. I disagree with this one as well. How would more blog coverage prevent Lee Atwaters' from using the covertly racist "Willie Horton" commercials against Dukakis, or make it less effective? How would more blog coverage make Atwater's comment that an opponent who received electroshock therapy for depression was "hooked up to jumper cables" less devastating? To take your own example, bloggers DID refute the 'swiftboating', but it seems not to have helped--and not for lack of bloggers.

The problem is not just finding the truth, but getting people to listen to it. So long as people have prejudices against the mentally ill, other races, non-militarists, East coast liberals, whatever, they're going to be able to be manipulated by those prejudices. I don't see how blogging (which, let's face facts, is pretty "small tent") is going to help. In fact there's less respect for political difference in the blogosphere than in the mainstream media.

I don't normally like to drift into "tinfoil hat" ...

2008-11-17T19:28:00.000-05:00

I don't normally like to drift into "tinfoil hat" territory, but I am convinced that if the Killian docs were faked, they were faked by Karl Rove or his ilk precisely for the double-whammy of 1) discrediting their old liberal media archenemy; and 2) neutering the whole discussion into GWB's military record. (I also suspect the same thing with the Palin "sambo beat the bitch" rumor, which may in fact prove Nate's argument that those sorts of things can't get the same traction due to blogging fact-checking.)

According to the NYT Rather article, ol' Dan rarel...

2008-11-17T18:49:00.000-05:00

According to the NYT Rather article, ol' Dan rarely misses a court date.. including the day after the election!

@Hector, "The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-c...

2008-11-17T16:39:00.000-05:00

@Hector, "The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-checking on the Internet is utter baloney." - I think you are taking this way out of context. It is agreed by all that the internet is home to a lot of loonies and stories that not even tabloids would print. But, that is not the point. The point is that the bloggers are poised and ready to pounce on any fallacious story, to fact check what politicians and talking heads say, and to be out front on real news. This means that the MSM is forced to reckon with the valid ones because otherwise the credibility of the corporate news organization is in serious jeopardy. The reasonable blogs are separated from the unreasonable fairly quickly. But, what is important is that it is not that the average American reads those blogs, it is that they get better news from the TV and newspapers because enough people do.
The manipulations of the Lee Attwaters and Karl Roves (Swift boaters anyone?) is much harder than it used to be and is only going to get harder. This is because more Americans are branching out to a wider source of information than just one news channel.

The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-checking on...

2008-11-17T15:41:00.000-05:00

The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-checking on the Internet is utter baloney. The Internet is indeed a godsend for people who WANT to see both sides of an issue, and people that are looking for the truth, but for people that are indulging their own preconceptions--which are the majority, it appears--the Internet is much better at creating and sustaining semi-willful idiocy (Trig's not Palin's baby, anyone? Obama's foreign birth, anyone?) that wouldn't have gotten any notice if it weren't plastered all over the Internet.

On this point the MSM and blogosphere cancel out.

"the authenticity of the [32 ballots] claim is -- ...

2008-11-17T15:38:00.000-05:00

"the authenticity of the [32 ballots] claim is -- at best -- debatable"

No, it is at best false. What's there to debate?

@mcleversorry I missed your comment earlier. But ...

2008-11-17T15:27:00.000-05:00

@mclever

sorry I missed your comment earlier. But I don't think it requires a tinfoil hat to think it's likely.

Hey, Nate! Good luck with the book. It's been grea...

2008-11-17T15:18:00.000-05:00

Hey, Nate! Good luck with the book. It's been great to see you all over the TV. Get somebody to design some t-shirts, already. How about a baseball hat... "538" over a Poblano chili?

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstre...

2008-11-17T14:52:00.000-05:00

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstream media (just a small market television) station, I thought I'd throw in some thoughts.

I hear a lot of claims about the bias of the media. We actually got a number of e-mails and calls from people during the election season. They were people who watched the same coverage, but some went off on us about our "liberal bias"--and some about our "conservative bias." I semi-seriously suggested we forward these comments to other side to see if their heads would explode from the contradiction.

I've certainly encountered reporters who are unashamed to admit their political persuasion. But that's a far cry from being completely oblivious of it. I've certainly seen a journalist's hidden assumptions taint their perception--but I've seen that happen with everyone and I've never seen it so severe when I've seen a story severely distorted because of it. My newsroom has people from both sides of the political aisle, and they wouldn't let something disgusting distorted on air. While I'd say most journalists can't see around all of the assumptions they make, neither can most viewers. That's why we'll get calls on the same news coverage blasting us for "bias" or "distorting the facts" or "playing to corporate" interests. Those are almost always just ways of saying, "You did/didn't report something that conflicts with how I see the world; therefore you must be wrong because I know the truth."

As for the how corporate impacts the newsroom, I can say they do have some push in the newsroom. At my station, the company is pushing toward a rebrand of our website. They want to ramp up traffic since the advertising possibilities online are growing whereas you can only cram so many spots onto your broadcast channels. They want to make the site into a sort of local portal (think Yahoo but on a much smaller scale). So I'm stuck putting in all sorts of website plugs into the newscast. One of the corporate heads actually said he wanted us to promote the website so much that "we'd want to shoot ourselves from hearing it so much."

What does this have to do about politics? Nothing. And that's the point.

Corporate and sales only care about the money they make. Politics are only an afterthought toward this. They'll just as easily take money from the Republicans as they will from the Democrats (even when the ads are of dubious truth... even though the mainstream media did lead to changes in one). Corporate proudly said October was their biggest revenue month ever. Well, when Barack Obama and John McCain is saturating your newscasts with spots.

The company I work for is about turning the profit so the company so the company doesn't default on the financing it needed to buy up a dozen stations. It, however, has a reputation as being a cheap company and is despised by most of its employees on the news side. But since ownership is the way it is I'm stuck promoting the hell out of website.

Whenever I've seen sales try to interfere in the newsroom, they've been shot down. One saleswoman called up pissed when we featured an advertiser when an employee committed a sex crime while on the job. Aside from not actually being aware that she had facts about our story wrong, no one yielded to her demands to alter the story--and no one higher up put pressure on us to do it either.

It's funny to hear people who don't appear to have ever stepped foot in a newsroom talk about how the entire structure of the industry works. Mind you, I'm not saying the mainstream media can't be inept or that they can focus on the trivial, just that this idea of the media working as their evil corporate machine to smash truth and uphold the government is... well... just funny.

Mrs B:As far as I know, the content was never disp...

2008-11-17T13:59:00.000-05:00

Mrs B:

As far as I know, the content was never disproved. The proof of forgery was too close to the election. The story of the forgery killed the story of the content of the forgery, which was not addressed.

While someone with more knowledge of equipment tha...

2008-11-17T13:56:00.000-05:00

While someone with more knowledge of equipment than I spoke to the forgery issue, I was hoping to get to THIS, which is *much* more important:

I still think it quite likely that the forged documents were funneled to the press by the Republican dirty tricks movement in order to kill the story.

Will someone please think about this?

known = what is?

I think Lee Atwater may also have preferred to see...

2008-11-17T13:12:00.000-05:00

I think Lee Atwater may also have preferred to see Obama as president, rather than McCain.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Few Notes on the Media

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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要打工兼差、打...

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@Hector, "remember "Harold, call me"?" - I agree t...

Hello ace, thanks for sharing your insider knowled...

And they're just the sort of blind, ignorant, and ...

@elirabbet - You're exactly right--"Willie Horton"...

It`s not so much racism as distrust of democrats b...

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstre...

The Killian documents were rapidly and -- to my mi...

@Hector, the world has changed from even 2004. The...

Nonsense, what would have happened is that the bla...

@paulk- re: "The manipulations of the Lee Attwater...

I don't normally like to drift into "tinfoil hat" ...

According to the NYT Rather article, ol' Dan rarel...

@Hector, "The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-c...

The supposed de-biasing effect of fact-checking on...

"the authenticity of the [32 ballots] claim is -- ...

@mcleversorry I missed your comment earlier. But ...

Hey, Nate! Good luck with the book. It's been grea...

As someone who works as a producer in the mainstre...

Mrs B:As far as I know, the content was never disp...

While someone with more knowledge of equipment tha...

I think Lee Atwater may also have preferred to see...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...